Credit Growth in Latin America: Financial Development or Credit Boom?
Banking credit to the private sector in Latin America has on average increased by 7 percent of GDP from primo 2004 to ultimo 2011, with real credit in some countries growing by up to 20 percent per year. This paper documents and analyzes the patterns of credit growth in 18 countries in Latin America...
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Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2013
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Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 13/106 |
Online-Zugang: | UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext |
Zusammenfassung: | Banking credit to the private sector in Latin America has on average increased by 7 percent of GDP from primo 2004 to ultimo 2011, with real credit in some countries growing by up to 20 percent per year. This paper documents and analyzes the patterns of credit growth in 18 countries in Latin America and uses econometric methods to determine whether it is indicative of financial deepening or poses risks of credit booms. The strongest credit growth occurred for consumption and mortgages within the household sector and for construction within the corporate sector. At the same time credit has de-dollarized in most countries and there are some signs of maturity lengthening. To assess whether the recent credit growth is excessive two different methods are applied. First, by application of HP-filters the paper finds that credit-to-GDP levels in a number of countries are above their long-term trend. Second, using a panel co-integration approach on 107 high and mid-income countries the paper estimates a model for the credit-to-GDP levels. Comparing the actual levels of credit with the ones predicted by the model we find that some countries in Latin America show significant and positive deviations. These results indicate the existence of a certain level of risk in the recent credit developments |
Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (48 p) |
ISBN: | 1484390628 9781484390627 |
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520 | 3 | |a Banking credit to the private sector in Latin America has on average increased by 7 percent of GDP from primo 2004 to ultimo 2011, with real credit in some countries growing by up to 20 percent per year. This paper documents and analyzes the patterns of credit growth in 18 countries in Latin America and uses econometric methods to determine whether it is indicative of financial deepening or poses risks of credit booms. The strongest credit growth occurred for consumption and mortgages within the household sector and for construction within the corporate sector. At the same time credit has de-dollarized in most countries and there are some signs of maturity lengthening. To assess whether the recent credit growth is excessive two different methods are applied. First, by application of HP-filters the paper finds that credit-to-GDP levels in a number of countries are above their long-term trend. Second, using a panel co-integration approach on 107 high and mid-income countries the paper estimates a model for the credit-to-GDP levels. Comparing the actual levels of credit with the ones predicted by the model we find that some countries in Latin America show significant and positive deviations. These results indicate the existence of a certain level of risk in the recent credit developments | |
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index_date | 2024-07-03T20:13:15Z |
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record_format | marc |
series2 | IMF Working Papers |
spelling | Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo Verfasser aut Credit Growth in Latin America Financial Development or Credit Boom? Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2013 1 Online-Ressource (48 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/106 Banking credit to the private sector in Latin America has on average increased by 7 percent of GDP from primo 2004 to ultimo 2011, with real credit in some countries growing by up to 20 percent per year. This paper documents and analyzes the patterns of credit growth in 18 countries in Latin America and uses econometric methods to determine whether it is indicative of financial deepening or poses risks of credit booms. The strongest credit growth occurred for consumption and mortgages within the household sector and for construction within the corporate sector. At the same time credit has de-dollarized in most countries and there are some signs of maturity lengthening. To assess whether the recent credit growth is excessive two different methods are applied. First, by application of HP-filters the paper finds that credit-to-GDP levels in a number of countries are above their long-term trend. Second, using a panel co-integration approach on 107 high and mid-income countries the paper estimates a model for the credit-to-GDP levels. Comparing the actual levels of credit with the ones predicted by the model we find that some countries in Latin America show significant and positive deviations. These results indicate the existence of a certain level of risk in the recent credit developments Online-Ausg Sulla, Olga Sonstige oth http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/20466-9781484390627/20466-9781484390627/20466-9781484390627.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
spellingShingle | Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo Credit Growth in Latin America Financial Development or Credit Boom? |
title | Credit Growth in Latin America Financial Development or Credit Boom? |
title_auth | Credit Growth in Latin America Financial Development or Credit Boom? |
title_exact_search | Credit Growth in Latin America Financial Development or Credit Boom? |
title_exact_search_txtP | Credit Growth in Latin America Financial Development or Credit Boom? |
title_full | Credit Growth in Latin America Financial Development or Credit Boom? Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo |
title_fullStr | Credit Growth in Latin America Financial Development or Credit Boom? Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo |
title_full_unstemmed | Credit Growth in Latin America Financial Development or Credit Boom? Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo |
title_short | Credit Growth in Latin America |
title_sort | credit growth in latin america financial development or credit boom |
title_sub | Financial Development or Credit Boom? |
url | http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/20466-9781484390627/20466-9781484390627/20466-9781484390627.xml |
work_keys_str_mv | AT hansennielsjakobharbo creditgrowthinlatinamericafinancialdevelopmentorcreditboom AT sullaolga creditgrowthinlatinamericafinancialdevelopmentorcreditboom |