Verfügbarkeit: Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies:

The purpose of this paper is to compare in-sample and out-of-sample performances of three parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging market economies (EMs). The parametric EWS achieves superior out-of-sample results compared to the non-parametric EWS, a...

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1. Verfasser:	Comelli, Fabio (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2013
Schriftenreihe:	IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/134
Online-Zugang:	UBW01 UEI01 LCO01 SBR01 UER01 SBG01 UBG01 FAN01 UBT01 FKE01 UBY01 UBA01 FLA01 UBM01 UPA01 UBR01 FHA01 FNU01 BSB01 TUM01 Volltext
Zusammenfassung:	The purpose of this paper is to compare in-sample and out-of-sample performances of three parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging market economies (EMs). The parametric EWS achieves superior out-of-sample results compared to the non-parametric EWS, as the total misclassification error of the former is lower than that of the latter. In addition, we find that the performances of the parametric and non-parametric EWS do not improve if the policymaker becomes more prudent. From a policy perspective, the policymaker faces the standard trade-off when using EWS. Greater prudence allows the policymaker to correctly call more crisis episodes, but this comes at the cost of issuing more false alarms. The benefit of correctly calling more currency crises needs to be traded off against the cost of issuing more false alarms and of implementing corrective macroeconomic policies prematurely
Beschreibung:	1 Online-Ressource (29 p)
ISBN:	1484300580 9781484300589

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spelling	Comelli, Fabio Verfasser aut Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies Comelli, Fabio Washington, D.C International Monetary Fund 2013 1 Online-Ressource (29 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF Working Papers Working Paper No. 13/134 The purpose of this paper is to compare in-sample and out-of-sample performances of three parametric and non-parametric early warning systems (EWS) for currency crises in emerging market economies (EMs). The parametric EWS achieves superior out-of-sample results compared to the non-parametric EWS, as the total misclassification error of the former is lower than that of the latter. In addition, we find that the performances of the parametric and non-parametric EWS do not improve if the policymaker becomes more prudent. From a policy perspective, the policymaker faces the standard trade-off when using EWS. Greater prudence allows the policymaker to correctly call more crisis episodes, but this comes at the cost of issuing more false alarms. The benefit of correctly calling more currency crises needs to be traded off against the cost of issuing more false alarms and of implementing corrective macroeconomic policies prematurely Online-Ausg http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/20539-9781484300589/20539-9781484300589/20539-9781484300589.xml Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext
spellingShingle	Comelli, Fabio Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
title	Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
title_auth	Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
title_exact_search	Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
title_exact_search_txtP	Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
title_full	Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies Comelli, Fabio
title_fullStr	Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies Comelli, Fabio
title_full_unstemmed	Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies Comelli, Fabio
title_short	Comparing Parametric and Non-parametric Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
title_sort	comparing parametric and non parametric early warning systems for currency crises in emerging market economies
url	http://elibrary.imf.org/view/IMF001/20539-9781484300589/20539-9781484300589/20539-9781484300589.xml
work_keys_str_mv	AT comellifabio comparingparametricandnonparametricearlywarningsystemsforcurrencycrisesinemergingmarketeconomies

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