Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Oxford
Oxford University Press
[2022]
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | xvii, 292 Seiten Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9780192849014 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents Book Summary xix 1. Introduction to Risk Management: Basics of Statistics What is Risk? Essence of Financial Risk Management Evolution of Basel Regulation What is Risk Management? Benefits of Risk Management Types of Risks in a Financial Institution/Organization Measurement of Operational Risk Need for Liquidity Risk Management Difference in Nature of Bank Risks Integration of Risks What is the Role of Statistical Approach to Manage Risk? Summary Review Questions References 2. Description of Data and Summary Statistics for Measurement of Risk 1 2 3 4 7 9 10 16 20 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 Data Description and Presentation Summary Statistics Coefficient of Variation (CV) = SD/Mean Quartiles and Percentiles Gini and Lorenz Curve Other Statistical Indices of Loan Inequality/Concentration Summary Review Questions References 3. Probability and Distribution Theorems and Their Applications in Risk Management Probability Theorems Probability Properties Probability Rules Conditional Probability Joint Dependence 30 32 33 37 40 47 48 49 52 53 54 55 56 57 59
xiv CONTENTS Mutually Exclusive vs. Non- Exclusive Events Independent Events Bayes’ Probability Theorem Repeated Trials—Draws with Replacement Probability and Expectations Probability Distribution Discrete Distributions Binomial Distribution Poisson Distribution Continuous Distribution Standard Normal Distribution Non-Normal Distributions Concept of Confidence Interval Summary Review Questions References 61 64 67 68 69 70 70 70 72 75 78 80 81 82 83 84 4. Hypotheses Testing in Banking Risk Analysis Hypothesis Testing Procedure Statistical Concept behind Hypothesis Testing Power of Test One-Tailed vs. Two-Tailed Test Illustration of the Concept with Examples Statistical Significance through t-Statistic Example of One-Tailed Test Solution Analyse the Sample Data Statistical Test Results Interpretation Mean Comparison Test ( f-Test) Non-Parametric Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test Test Procedure Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Summary Review Questions References 5. Matrix Algebra and their Application in Risk Prediction and Risk Monitoring Transition Matrix Analysis—Computation of Probability of Default Matrix Multiplication and Estimation of PD for Different Time Horizons Statistical Test on Significant Increase in Credit Risk (SICR) Inverse of Matrix and Solution of Equations 85 86 86 87 89 89 93 95 96 96 96 97 101 101 106 112 113 117 119 119 129 135 136
CONTENTS Summary Review Questions References 6. Correlation Theorem and Portfolio Management Techniques Portfolio Measure of Credit Risk Example Correlation Measures Steps for Computation of the Spearman Rank Correlation Measurement of Portfolio Market Risk Portfolio Optimization Integration of Risk and Estimation of Bank Capital Summary Review Questions References 7. Multivariate Analysis to Understand Functional Relationship and Scenario Building XV 138 138 139 141 141 142 148 152 154 154 157 158 158 160 163 163 168 171 172 178 181 183 184 188 189 192 192 193 194 194 Regression Basics Interpretation Applications of Multiple Regressions in Risk Analysis Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) Diagnostic Checks Application of MDA Technique Non-Linear Probability Models-Logistic Regression Application of Logit Model in Risk Management Validation of Predictive Power of Logit Models Panel Regression Methods The Fixed Effect Model LSDV Model Limitations of Fixed Effect Approach Random Effect Model Fixed Effect vs. Random Effect Specification Example of Panel Regression in STATA: Factors Determine Refinancing by Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) Heteroskedasticity and Multicollinearity Tests Summary Review Questions References 196 203 206 207 210 8. Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques and Value at Risk 211 Types of VaR Techniques Steps in HS 212 212
xvi CONTENTS Steps in VCVaR Steps in MCS Value at Risk as a Measure of Market Risk VaR for Interest Rate Instruments Stressed VaR Credit VaR (С-VaR) for Loan Portfolio Operational Risk VaR: Loss Distribution Approach Methodology Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S) Anderson-Darling ( А-D) Test P-P Q-QPlot Exercise-Operational Risk VaR Method VaR Back Testing Summary Review Questions References 213 214 215 216 216 217 220 221 221 221 222 226 228 229 229 230 9. Statistical Tools for Model Validation and Back Testing 233 Power Curve Kolmogorov-Sminrov (K-S) Test Information Value (IV) Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test Goodness-of-Fit Test Steps in HL Test STATA Example ROC Curve Generated from Retail Logit PD Model Akaike Information Criterion Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) or Schwarz Criterion Summary Review Questions References 234 237 239 244 245 245 246 248 250 251 251 252 252 10. Time-Series Forecasting Techniques for Banking Variables Analysis of Trend: Polynomial Trend Application of Trend Forecasting Time Series: AR and MA Process Stationarity 255 Seasonality ARMA Model Autoregressive Model Stationarity Condition Autocorrelation Function and Partial Autocorrelation Function Unit Root Test Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model 256 257 259 260 260 260 261 262 263 263 264
CONTENTS ARIMA Model Identification Detecting Trend and Seasonality in a Series Estimating the ARIMA Model-Box-Jenkins Approach Forecasting with ARIMA Model Key Steps in Building ARIMA Forecasting Model ARIMA Forecast Example Multivariate Time-Series Model Summary Review Questions References Appendix: Statistical Tables Index XVÍÍ 266 267 267 268 268 269 277 279 280 281 283 289
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| adam_txt |
Contents Book Summary xix 1. Introduction to Risk Management: Basics of Statistics What is Risk? Essence of Financial Risk Management Evolution of Basel Regulation What is Risk Management? Benefits of Risk Management Types of Risks in a Financial Institution/Organization Measurement of Operational Risk Need for Liquidity Risk Management Difference in Nature of Bank Risks Integration of Risks What is the Role of Statistical Approach to Manage Risk? Summary Review Questions References 2. Description of Data and Summary Statistics for Measurement of Risk 1 2 3 4 7 9 10 16 20 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 Data Description and Presentation Summary Statistics Coefficient of Variation (CV) = SD/Mean Quartiles and Percentiles Gini and Lorenz Curve Other Statistical Indices of Loan Inequality/Concentration Summary Review Questions References 3. Probability and Distribution Theorems and Their Applications in Risk Management Probability Theorems Probability Properties Probability Rules Conditional Probability Joint Dependence 30 32 33 37 40 47 48 49 52 53 54 55 56 57 59
xiv CONTENTS Mutually Exclusive vs. Non- Exclusive Events Independent Events Bayes’ Probability Theorem Repeated Trials—Draws with Replacement Probability and Expectations Probability Distribution Discrete Distributions Binomial Distribution Poisson Distribution Continuous Distribution Standard Normal Distribution Non-Normal Distributions Concept of Confidence Interval Summary Review Questions References 61 64 67 68 69 70 70 70 72 75 78 80 81 82 83 84 4. Hypotheses Testing in Banking Risk Analysis Hypothesis Testing Procedure Statistical Concept behind Hypothesis Testing Power of Test One-Tailed vs. Two-Tailed Test Illustration of the Concept with Examples Statistical Significance through t-Statistic Example of One-Tailed Test Solution Analyse the Sample Data Statistical Test Results Interpretation Mean Comparison Test ( f-Test) Non-Parametric Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test Test Procedure Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Summary Review Questions References 5. Matrix Algebra and their Application in Risk Prediction and Risk Monitoring Transition Matrix Analysis—Computation of Probability of Default Matrix Multiplication and Estimation of PD for Different Time Horizons Statistical Test on Significant Increase in Credit Risk (SICR) Inverse of Matrix and Solution of Equations 85 86 86 87 89 89 93 95 96 96 96 97 101 101 106 112 113 117 119 119 129 135 136
CONTENTS Summary Review Questions References 6. Correlation Theorem and Portfolio Management Techniques Portfolio Measure of Credit Risk Example Correlation Measures Steps for Computation of the Spearman Rank Correlation Measurement of Portfolio Market Risk Portfolio Optimization Integration of Risk and Estimation of Bank Capital Summary Review Questions References 7. Multivariate Analysis to Understand Functional Relationship and Scenario Building XV 138 138 139 141 141 142 148 152 154 154 157 158 158 160 163 163 168 171 172 178 181 183 184 188 189 192 192 193 194 194 Regression Basics Interpretation Applications of Multiple Regressions in Risk Analysis Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) Diagnostic Checks Application of MDA Technique Non-Linear Probability Models-Logistic Regression Application of Logit Model in Risk Management Validation of Predictive Power of Logit Models Panel Regression Methods The Fixed Effect Model LSDV Model Limitations of Fixed Effect Approach Random Effect Model Fixed Effect vs. Random Effect Specification Example of Panel Regression in STATA: Factors Determine Refinancing by Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) Heteroskedasticity and Multicollinearity Tests Summary Review Questions References 196 203 206 207 210 8. Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques and Value at Risk 211 Types of VaR Techniques Steps in HS 212 212
xvi CONTENTS Steps in VCVaR Steps in MCS Value at Risk as a Measure of Market Risk VaR for Interest Rate Instruments Stressed VaR Credit VaR (С-VaR) for Loan Portfolio Operational Risk VaR: Loss Distribution Approach Methodology Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S) Anderson-Darling ( А-D) Test P-P Q-QPlot Exercise-Operational Risk VaR Method VaR Back Testing Summary Review Questions References 213 214 215 216 216 217 220 221 221 221 222 226 228 229 229 230 9. Statistical Tools for Model Validation and Back Testing 233 Power Curve Kolmogorov-Sminrov (K-S) Test Information Value (IV) Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test Goodness-of-Fit Test Steps in HL Test STATA Example ROC Curve Generated from Retail Logit PD Model Akaike Information Criterion Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) or Schwarz Criterion Summary Review Questions References 234 237 239 244 245 245 246 248 250 251 251 252 252 10. Time-Series Forecasting Techniques for Banking Variables Analysis of Trend: Polynomial Trend Application of Trend Forecasting Time Series: AR and MA Process Stationarity 255 Seasonality ARMA Model Autoregressive Model Stationarity Condition Autocorrelation Function and Partial Autocorrelation Function Unit Root Test Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model 256 257 259 260 260 260 261 262 263 263 264
CONTENTS ARIMA Model Identification Detecting Trend and Seasonality in a Series Estimating the ARIMA Model-Box-Jenkins Approach Forecasting with ARIMA Model Key Steps in Building ARIMA Forecasting Model ARIMA Forecast Example Multivariate Time-Series Model Summary Review Questions References Appendix: Statistical Tables Index XVÍÍ 266 267 267 268 268 269 277 279 280 281 283 289 |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| spelling | Bandyopadhyay, Arindam Verfasser (DE-588)1143628551 aut Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions Arindam Bandyopadhyay Oxford Oxford University Press [2022] xvii, 292 Seiten Illustrationen txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Kreditrisiko (DE-588)4114309-7 gnd rswk-swf Betriebsrisiko (DE-588)4069395-8 gnd rswk-swf Kreditinstitut (DE-588)4165579-5 gnd rswk-swf Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd rswk-swf Bank (DE-588)4004436-1 gnd rswk-swf Marktrisiko (DE-588)4506224-9 gnd rswk-swf Kreditinstitut (DE-588)4165579-5 s Bank (DE-588)4004436-1 s Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s Kreditrisiko (DE-588)4114309-7 s Marktrisiko (DE-588)4506224-9 s Betriebsrisiko (DE-588)4069395-8 s Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 s b DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-0-19-266549-2 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, UPDF 978-0-19-266548-5 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, OSO 978-0-19-194426-0 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=033581791&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Bandyopadhyay, Arindam Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Kreditrisiko (DE-588)4114309-7 gnd Betriebsrisiko (DE-588)4069395-8 gnd Kreditinstitut (DE-588)4165579-5 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd Bank (DE-588)4004436-1 gnd Marktrisiko (DE-588)4506224-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4121590-4 (DE-588)4114309-7 (DE-588)4069395-8 (DE-588)4165579-5 (DE-588)4056995-0 (DE-588)4004436-1 (DE-588)4506224-9 |
| title | Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions |
| title_auth | Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions |
| title_exact_search | Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions |
| title_full | Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions Arindam Bandyopadhyay |
| title_fullStr | Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions Arindam Bandyopadhyay |
| title_full_unstemmed | Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions Arindam Bandyopadhyay |
| title_short | Basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions |
| title_sort | basic statistics for risk management in banks and financial institutions |
| topic | Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Kreditrisiko (DE-588)4114309-7 gnd Betriebsrisiko (DE-588)4069395-8 gnd Kreditinstitut (DE-588)4165579-5 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd Bank (DE-588)4004436-1 gnd Marktrisiko (DE-588)4506224-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Risikomanagement Kreditrisiko Betriebsrisiko Kreditinstitut Statistik Bank Marktrisiko |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=033581791&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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