Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates:
Long-term bond yields have been low in recent years both in nominal and real terms, and - especially in the United States - they have reacted differently to shifts in monetary and fiscal stances relative to previous cycles. This article examines various possible explanations for this behaviour, such...
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Format: | Elektronisch Buchkapitel |
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Sprache: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2006
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Online-Zugang: | DE-384 DE-473 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-92 DE-91 DE-573 DE-19 Volltext |
Zusammenfassung: | Long-term bond yields have been low in recent years both in nominal and real terms, and - especially in the United States - they have reacted differently to shifts in monetary and fiscal stances relative to previous cycles. This article examines various possible explanations for this behaviour, such as the effects of changes in monetary policy frameworks on inflation and interest rate expectations; developments in ex ante saving-investment balances, and shifts in investors' portfolio preferences (including official reserve accumulation, "petro-dollar" recycling and pension fund demand for longer maturities). The article concludes that it is unlikely that any individual explanation can account for the level and profile of bond yields in recent years, but that an important element has been a compression in term premia, together with shifts in expected short rates. Even though bond yields have started to rise in the early part of 2006, they are unlikely to go back to the levels that prevailed in the 1980s or the early 1990s, as several of the factors that drove them lower are set to persist |
Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (51 Seiten) 16 x 23cm |
DOI: | 10.1787/fmt-v2006-art12-en |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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spelling | Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Paris OECD Publishing 2006 1 Online-Ressource (51 Seiten) 16 x 23cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Long-term bond yields have been low in recent years both in nominal and real terms, and - especially in the United States - they have reacted differently to shifts in monetary and fiscal stances relative to previous cycles. This article examines various possible explanations for this behaviour, such as the effects of changes in monetary policy frameworks on inflation and interest rate expectations; developments in ex ante saving-investment balances, and shifts in investors' portfolio preferences (including official reserve accumulation, "petro-dollar" recycling and pension fund demand for longer maturities). The article concludes that it is unlikely that any individual explanation can account for the level and profile of bond yields in recent years, but that an important element has been a compression in term premia, together with shifts in expected short rates. Even though bond yields have started to rise in the early part of 2006, they are unlikely to go back to the levels that prevailed in the 1980s or the early 1990s, as several of the factors that drove them lower are set to persist Finance and Investment https://doi.org/10.1787/fmt-v2006-art12-en Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
spellingShingle | Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates Finance and Investment |
title | Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates |
title_auth | Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates |
title_exact_search | Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates |
title_exact_search_txtP | Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates |
title_full | Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development |
title_fullStr | Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development |
title_full_unstemmed | Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development |
title_short | Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates |
title_sort | factors behind low long term interest rates |
topic | Finance and Investment |
topic_facet | Finance and Investment |
url | https://doi.org/10.1787/fmt-v2006-art12-en |