Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method: A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference
This paper presents a new methodology for the quantification of qualitative survey data. Traditional conversion methods, such as the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (1975) or the time-varying parameters model of Seitz (1988), require very restrictive assumptions concerning the expectation...
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| Format: | Elektronisch Buchkapitel |
| Sprache: | English |
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2006
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| Online-Zugang: | DE-384 DE-473 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-92 DE-91 DE-573 DE-19 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper presents a new methodology for the quantification of qualitative survey data. Traditional conversion methods, such as the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (1975) or the time-varying parameters model of Seitz (1988), require very restrictive assumptions concerning the expectations formation process of survey respondents. Above all, the unbiasedness of expectations, which is a necessary condition for rationality, is imposed. Our approach avoids this assumptions. The novelty lies in the way the boundaries inside of which survey respondents expect the variable under consideration to remain unchanged are determined. Instead of deriving these boundaries from the statistical properties of the reference time-series (which necessitates the unbiasedness assumption), we directly queried them from survey respondents by a special question in the Ifo World Economic Survey. The new methodology is then applied to expectations about the future development of inflation obtained from the Ifo World Economic Survey |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (32 Seiten) |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art8-en |
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| spelling | Henzel, Steffen Verfasser aut Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference Steffen Henzel and Timo Wollmershäuser Paris OECD Publishing 2006 1 Online-Ressource (32 Seiten) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier This paper presents a new methodology for the quantification of qualitative survey data. Traditional conversion methods, such as the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (1975) or the time-varying parameters model of Seitz (1988), require very restrictive assumptions concerning the expectations formation process of survey respondents. Above all, the unbiasedness of expectations, which is a necessary condition for rationality, is imposed. Our approach avoids this assumptions. The novelty lies in the way the boundaries inside of which survey respondents expect the variable under consideration to remain unchanged are determined. Instead of deriving these boundaries from the statistical properties of the reference time-series (which necessitates the unbiasedness assumption), we directly queried them from survey respondents by a special question in the Ifo World Economic Survey. The new methodology is then applied to expectations about the future development of inflation obtained from the Ifo World Economic Survey Economics Wollmershäuser, Timo ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art8-en Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Henzel, Steffen Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference Economics |
| title | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference |
| title_auth | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference |
| title_exact_search | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference |
| title_full | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference Steffen Henzel and Timo Wollmershäuser |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference Steffen Henzel and Timo Wollmershäuser |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference Steffen Henzel and Timo Wollmershäuser |
| title_short | Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method |
| title_sort | quantifying inflation expectations with the carlson parkin method a survey based determination of the just noticeable difference |
| title_sub | A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2005-art8-en |
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