Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector: a comparison between time series and survey estimates
The aim of this paper is to provide an interpretation of the measure of capacity utilisation provided by the European Union harmonised survey on the Italian manufacturing sector. In doing so, we evaluate its ability to correctly track cyclical turning points and its contribution in explaining consum...
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| Format: | Elektronisch Buchkapitel |
| Sprache: | English |
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Paris
OECD Publishing
2012
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| Online-Zugang: | DE-384 DE-473 DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-92 DE-91 DE-573 DE-19 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | The aim of this paper is to provide an interpretation of the measure of capacity utilisation provided by the European Union harmonised survey on the Italian manufacturing sector. In doing so, we evaluate its ability to correctly track cyclical turning points and its contribution in explaining consumer price index (CPI) inflation. The survey based measure results are a good co-incident indicator of business cycle, however it is generally outperformed by time series models in explaining inflation. We conclude that the standard "output gap" interpretation of the survey results is broadly confirmed by the data, however we cannot rule out at this stage that survey respondents may also consider the alternative "variable capacity utilisation" concept in answering the survey question. Keywords: Capacity utilisation, co-integration, unobserved component models, VAR.JEL Classification: E32, C22, E37 |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (15 Seiten) 21 x 28cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k8znwp2nts8 |
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| spelling | Malgarini, Marco Verfasser aut Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector a comparison between time series and survey estimates Marco Malgarini and Antonio Paradiso Paris OECD Publishing 2012 1 Online-Ressource (15 Seiten) 21 x 28cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier The aim of this paper is to provide an interpretation of the measure of capacity utilisation provided by the European Union harmonised survey on the Italian manufacturing sector. In doing so, we evaluate its ability to correctly track cyclical turning points and its contribution in explaining consumer price index (CPI) inflation. The survey based measure results are a good co-incident indicator of business cycle, however it is generally outperformed by time series models in explaining inflation. We conclude that the standard "output gap" interpretation of the survey results is broadly confirmed by the data, however we cannot rule out at this stage that survey respondents may also consider the alternative "variable capacity utilisation" concept in answering the survey question. Keywords: Capacity utilisation, co-integration, unobserved component models, VAR.JEL Classification: E32, C22, E37 Economics Italy Paradiso, Antonio ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k8znwp2nts8 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Malgarini, Marco Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector a comparison between time series and survey estimates Economics Italy |
| title | Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector a comparison between time series and survey estimates |
| title_auth | Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector a comparison between time series and survey estimates |
| title_exact_search | Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector a comparison between time series and survey estimates |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector a comparison between time series and survey estimates |
| title_full | Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector a comparison between time series and survey estimates Marco Malgarini and Antonio Paradiso |
| title_fullStr | Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector a comparison between time series and survey estimates Marco Malgarini and Antonio Paradiso |
| title_full_unstemmed | Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector a comparison between time series and survey estimates Marco Malgarini and Antonio Paradiso |
| title_short | Measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector |
| title_sort | measuring capacity utilisation in the italian manufacturing sector a comparison between time series and survey estimates |
| title_sub | a comparison between time series and survey estimates |
| topic | Economics Italy |
| topic_facet | Economics Italy |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k8znwp2nts8 |
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