Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops:
This paper provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that a large capital inflow episode...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2011
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
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| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that a large capital inflow episode increases substantially the probability of having a banking or a currency crisis in the two following years. The effect is especially large for the case of balance-of-payment crises. The paper also finds that the effect of large capital inflows is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode. In particular, large capital inflows that are debt-driven significantly increase the probability of banking, currency and balance of payment crises, whereas if inflows are driven by equity portfolio investment or FDI there is a negligible effect. This means that structural reforms that modify the composition of capital flows towards a lower share of debt are likely to reduce the financial vulnerabilities to large capital inflows. At the same time, however, structural reforms may also increase the overall size of capital flows |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5kgc9kpkslvk-en |
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| spelling | Furceri, Davide Verfasser aut Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops Davide Furceri, Stéphanie Guichard and Elena Rusticelli = Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur / Davide Furceri, Stéphanie Guichard et Elena Rusticelli Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur Paris OECD Publishing 2011 1 Online-Ressource (37 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers This paper provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that a large capital inflow episode increases substantially the probability of having a banking or a currency crisis in the two following years. The effect is especially large for the case of balance-of-payment crises. The paper also finds that the effect of large capital inflows is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode. In particular, large capital inflows that are debt-driven significantly increase the probability of banking, currency and balance of payment crises, whereas if inflows are driven by equity portfolio investment or FDI there is a negligible effect. This means that structural reforms that modify the composition of capital flows towards a lower share of debt are likely to reduce the financial vulnerabilities to large capital inflows. At the same time, however, structural reforms may also increase the overall size of capital flows Economics Guichard, Stéphanie ctb Rusticelli, Elena ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/5kgc9kpkslvk-en Verlag kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Furceri, Davide Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops Economics |
| title | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops |
| title_alt | Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur |
| title_auth | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops |
| title_exact_search | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops |
| title_full | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops Davide Furceri, Stéphanie Guichard and Elena Rusticelli = Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur / Davide Furceri, Stéphanie Guichard et Elena Rusticelli |
| title_fullStr | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops Davide Furceri, Stéphanie Guichard and Elena Rusticelli = Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur / Davide Furceri, Stéphanie Guichard et Elena Rusticelli |
| title_full_unstemmed | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops Davide Furceri, Stéphanie Guichard and Elena Rusticelli = Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur / Davide Furceri, Stéphanie Guichard et Elena Rusticelli |
| title_short | Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops |
| title_sort | episodes of large capital inflows and the likelihood of banking and currency crises and sudden stops |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5kgc9kpkslvk-en |
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