Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries:
This paper aims at assessing the robustness of demographic projections to different assumptions on mortality, fertility and migration. It builds on a small-scale simulation model for 23 OECD countries, which reproduces closely national projections under similar demographic assumptions. Up to 2020, p...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2005
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper aims at assessing the robustness of demographic projections to different assumptions on mortality, fertility and migration. It builds on a small-scale simulation model for 23 OECD countries, which reproduces closely national projections under similar demographic assumptions. Up to 2020, projections are relatively robust to alternative hypothesis. However, uncertainty about future longevity gains and fertility rates account for a large range of results for dependency ratios by 2050. Eventually, a long lasting surge in fertility may not be enough to fully offset the impact on dependency ratio of increases in longevity in line with past trends (i.e., around two years every decade) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (49 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/675771743585 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| spelling | Gonand, Frédéric Verfasser aut Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries Frédéric Gonand = Sensibilité des projections démographiques dans les pays de l'OCDE: une évaluation / Frédéric Gonand Sensibilité des projections démographiques dans les pays de l'OCDE: une évaluation Paris OECD Publishing 2005 1 Online-Ressource (49 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers This paper aims at assessing the robustness of demographic projections to different assumptions on mortality, fertility and migration. It builds on a small-scale simulation model for 23 OECD countries, which reproduces closely national projections under similar demographic assumptions. Up to 2020, projections are relatively robust to alternative hypothesis. However, uncertainty about future longevity gains and fertility rates account for a large range of results for dependency ratios by 2050. Eventually, a long lasting surge in fertility may not be enough to fully offset the impact on dependency ratio of increases in longevity in line with past trends (i.e., around two years every decade) Economics https://doi.org/10.1787/675771743585 Verlag kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Gonand, Frédéric Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries Economics |
| title | Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries |
| title_alt | Sensibilité des projections démographiques dans les pays de l'OCDE: une évaluation |
| title_auth | Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries |
| title_exact_search | Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries |
| title_full | Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries Frédéric Gonand = Sensibilité des projections démographiques dans les pays de l'OCDE: une évaluation / Frédéric Gonand |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries Frédéric Gonand = Sensibilité des projections démographiques dans les pays de l'OCDE: une évaluation / Frédéric Gonand |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries Frédéric Gonand = Sensibilité des projections démographiques dans les pays de l'OCDE: une évaluation / Frédéric Gonand |
| title_short | Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries |
| title_sort | assessing the robustness of demographic projections in oecd countries |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/675771743585 |
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