Are House Prices Nearing a Peak?: A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries
House prices have been moving up strongly in real terms since the mid-1990s in the majority of OECD countries, with the ongoing upswing the longest of its kind in the OECD area since the 1970s. If interest rates were to rise significantly, real house prices may be at risk of nearing a peak. The hist...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2006
|
| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | kostenfrei |
| Zusammenfassung: | House prices have been moving up strongly in real terms since the mid-1990s in the majority of OECD countries, with the ongoing upswing the longest of its kind in the OECD area since the 1970s. If interest rates were to rise significantly, real house prices may be at risk of nearing a peak. The historical record suggests that the subsequent drops in prices in real terms might be large and that the process could be protracted. To quantify the probability that a peak is nearing in the current situation a probit model was estimated for the period 1970-2005 on a restricted set of what are generally agreed to be the main explanatory variables. Aside from interest rates, these include measures of overheating, such as the gap between real house prices and their long-run trend and the rate of change in real house prices in the recent past. The main finding is that an increase in interest rates by about 1 to 2 percentage points would result in probabilities of a peak nearing of 50% or more in the United States, France, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Spain and Sweden |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/816770752416 |
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| spelling | Are House Prices Nearing a Peak? A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development = La hausse des prix des logements touche-t-elle à son terme ? : Une analyse probit pour 17 pays de l'OCDE / Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques La hausse des prix des logements touche-t-elle à son terme ? Paris OECD Publishing 2006 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers House prices have been moving up strongly in real terms since the mid-1990s in the majority of OECD countries, with the ongoing upswing the longest of its kind in the OECD area since the 1970s. If interest rates were to rise significantly, real house prices may be at risk of nearing a peak. The historical record suggests that the subsequent drops in prices in real terms might be large and that the process could be protracted. To quantify the probability that a peak is nearing in the current situation a probit model was estimated for the period 1970-2005 on a restricted set of what are generally agreed to be the main explanatory variables. Aside from interest rates, these include measures of overheating, such as the gap between real house prices and their long-run trend and the rate of change in real house prices in the recent past. The main finding is that an increase in interest rates by about 1 to 2 percentage points would result in probabilities of a peak nearing of 50% or more in the United States, France, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Spain and Sweden Economics https://doi.org/10.1787/816770752416 Verlag kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Are House Prices Nearing a Peak? A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries Economics |
| title | Are House Prices Nearing a Peak? A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries |
| title_alt | La hausse des prix des logements touche-t-elle à son terme ? |
| title_auth | Are House Prices Nearing a Peak? A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries |
| title_exact_search | Are House Prices Nearing a Peak? A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Are House Prices Nearing a Peak? A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries |
| title_full | Are House Prices Nearing a Peak? A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development = La hausse des prix des logements touche-t-elle à son terme ? : Une analyse probit pour 17 pays de l'OCDE / Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques |
| title_fullStr | Are House Prices Nearing a Peak? A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development = La hausse des prix des logements touche-t-elle à son terme ? : Une analyse probit pour 17 pays de l'OCDE / Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques |
| title_full_unstemmed | Are House Prices Nearing a Peak? A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development = La hausse des prix des logements touche-t-elle à son terme ? : Une analyse probit pour 17 pays de l'OCDE / Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques |
| title_short | Are House Prices Nearing a Peak? |
| title_sort | are house prices nearing a peak a probit analysis for 17 oecd countries |
| title_sub | A Probit Analysis for 17 OECD Countries |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/816770752416 |