Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment:
This paper illustrates possible trade-offs between two different fiscal consolidation strategies in Portugal: sticking to the nominal fiscal targets in the EU-IMF programme or allowing automatic stabilisers to work, while sticking to the structural primary deficit targets implied by the programme. T...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2012
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| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | This paper illustrates possible trade-offs between two different fiscal consolidation strategies in Portugal: sticking to the nominal fiscal targets in the EU-IMF programme or allowing automatic stabilisers to work, while sticking to the structural primary deficit targets implied by the programme. The analysis is based on stochastic simulations in which random shocks affect the main economic variables in the framework of a small macroeconomic model. The model captures the mutual interdependences between the fiscal position, financial conditions and activity and notably the impact of public debt developments on investors' confidence and interest rates. Results suggest that under the large fiscal consolidation programme that is currently implemented, both fiscal policy strategies considered would in most cases result in sustainable debt dynamics. Both strategies also entail risks, but of a different nature: the risk of a deeper recession if sticking to nominal targets and the risk of higher debt if letting automatic stabilisers play. Sensitivity analyses show that these risks could be reduced by stimulating potential growth through structural reform and by choosing "growth friendly" fiscal consolidation instruments that have lower multipliers. By reducing recessionary risks, a small fiscal multiplier also increases the relative benefits of sticking to nominal deficit targets, while the benefits of automatic stabilisers are larger if the multiplier is high. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Portugal (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/portugal) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5k92smzp0b6h-en |
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| 520 | |a This paper illustrates possible trade-offs between two different fiscal consolidation strategies in Portugal: sticking to the nominal fiscal targets in the EU-IMF programme or allowing automatic stabilisers to work, while sticking to the structural primary deficit targets implied by the programme. The analysis is based on stochastic simulations in which random shocks affect the main economic variables in the framework of a small macroeconomic model. The model captures the mutual interdependences between the fiscal position, financial conditions and activity and notably the impact of public debt developments on investors' confidence and interest rates. Results suggest that under the large fiscal consolidation programme that is currently implemented, both fiscal policy strategies considered would in most cases result in sustainable debt dynamics. Both strategies also entail risks, but of a different nature: the risk of a deeper recession if sticking to nominal targets and the risk of higher debt if letting automatic stabilisers play. Sensitivity analyses show that these risks could be reduced by stimulating potential growth through structural reform and by choosing "growth friendly" fiscal consolidation instruments that have lower multipliers. By reducing recessionary risks, a small fiscal multiplier also increases the relative benefits of sticking to nominal deficit targets, while the benefits of automatic stabilisers are larger if the multiplier is high. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Portugal (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/portugal) | ||
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| language | English |
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| spelling | Sorbe, Stéphane Verfasser aut Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment Stéphane Sorbe = Portugal: évaluer les risques autour du rythme d'assainissement budgétaire dans un environnement incertain / Stéphane Sorbe Portugal: évaluer les risques autour du rythme d'assainissement budgétaire dans un environnement incertain Paris OECD Publishing 2012 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers This paper illustrates possible trade-offs between two different fiscal consolidation strategies in Portugal: sticking to the nominal fiscal targets in the EU-IMF programme or allowing automatic stabilisers to work, while sticking to the structural primary deficit targets implied by the programme. The analysis is based on stochastic simulations in which random shocks affect the main economic variables in the framework of a small macroeconomic model. The model captures the mutual interdependences between the fiscal position, financial conditions and activity and notably the impact of public debt developments on investors' confidence and interest rates. Results suggest that under the large fiscal consolidation programme that is currently implemented, both fiscal policy strategies considered would in most cases result in sustainable debt dynamics. Both strategies also entail risks, but of a different nature: the risk of a deeper recession if sticking to nominal targets and the risk of higher debt if letting automatic stabilisers play. Sensitivity analyses show that these risks could be reduced by stimulating potential growth through structural reform and by choosing "growth friendly" fiscal consolidation instruments that have lower multipliers. By reducing recessionary risks, a small fiscal multiplier also increases the relative benefits of sticking to nominal deficit targets, while the benefits of automatic stabilisers are larger if the multiplier is high. This Working Paper relates to the 2012 OECD Economic Survey of Portugal (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/portugal) Economics Portugal https://doi.org/10.1787/5k92smzp0b6h-en Verlag kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Sorbe, Stéphane Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment Economics Portugal |
| title | Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment |
| title_alt | Portugal: évaluer les risques autour du rythme d'assainissement budgétaire dans un environnement incertain |
| title_auth | Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment |
| title_exact_search | Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment |
| title_full | Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment Stéphane Sorbe = Portugal: évaluer les risques autour du rythme d'assainissement budgétaire dans un environnement incertain / Stéphane Sorbe |
| title_fullStr | Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment Stéphane Sorbe = Portugal: évaluer les risques autour du rythme d'assainissement budgétaire dans un environnement incertain / Stéphane Sorbe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment Stéphane Sorbe = Portugal: évaluer les risques autour du rythme d'assainissement budgétaire dans un environnement incertain / Stéphane Sorbe |
| title_short | Portugal - Assessing the Risks Around the Speed of Fiscal Consolidation in an Uncertain Environment |
| title_sort | portugal assessing the risks around the speed of fiscal consolidation in an uncertain environment |
| topic | Economics Portugal |
| topic_facet | Economics Portugal |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5k92smzp0b6h-en |
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