Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics:
The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability. Among OECD economies, this differential was unusually low for much of the last decade compared with the 1980s and the first half of the 1...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Weitere Verfasser: | |
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2011
|
| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability. Among OECD economies, this differential was unusually low for much of the last decade compared with the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. This paper investigates the reasons behind this profile using panel estimation on 23 OECD economies. The results suggest that the fall is partly explained by lower inflation volatility associated with the adoption of monetary policy regimes which credibly target low inflation, which might be expected to continue. However, the low differential is also partly explained by factors which are likely to be reversed in the future, including very low policy rates, the "global savings glut" and the effect which the European Monetary Union had in reducing long-term interest differentials in the pre-crisis period. The differential is also likely to rise in the future because the number of countries which have debt-to-GDP ratios above a threshold at which there appears to be an effect on sovereign risk premia has risen sharply. Moreover, debt is projected to increasingly rise above this threshold in most of these countries |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5kg0k706v2f3-en |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000zc 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV047935274 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 220413s2011 xx o|||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1787/5kg0k706v2f3-en |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (ZDB-13-SOC)061269123 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1312699092 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV047935274 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-384 |a DE-91 |a DE-473 |a DE-824 |a DE-29 |a DE-739 |a DE-355 |a DE-20 |a DE-1028 |a DE-1049 |a DE-188 |a DE-521 |a DE-861 |a DE-898 |a DE-92 |a DE-573 |a DE-19 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Turner, David |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics |c David Turner and Francesca Spinelli = Expliquer le différentiel entre taux d'intérêt et croissance qui sous-tend la dynamique de la dette publique / David Turner et Francesca Spinelli |
| 246 | 1 | 3 | |a Expliquer le différentiel entre taux d'intérêt et croissance qui sous-tend la dynamique de la dette publique |
| 264 | 1 | |a Paris |b OECD Publishing |c 2011 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) |c 21 x 29.7cm | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a OECD Economics Department Working Papers | |
| 520 | |a The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability. Among OECD economies, this differential was unusually low for much of the last decade compared with the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. This paper investigates the reasons behind this profile using panel estimation on 23 OECD economies. The results suggest that the fall is partly explained by lower inflation volatility associated with the adoption of monetary policy regimes which credibly target low inflation, which might be expected to continue. However, the low differential is also partly explained by factors which are likely to be reversed in the future, including very low policy rates, the "global savings glut" and the effect which the European Monetary Union had in reducing long-term interest differentials in the pre-crisis period. The differential is also likely to rise in the future because the number of countries which have debt-to-GDP ratios above a threshold at which there appears to be an effect on sovereign risk premia has risen sharply. Moreover, debt is projected to increasingly rise above this threshold in most of these countries | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Economics | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Spinelli, Francesca |4 ctb | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5kg0k706v2f3-en |x Verlag |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033316767 | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1818806082605154304 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | |
| adam_txt | |
| any_adam_object | |
| any_adam_object_boolean | |
| author | Turner, David |
| author2 | Spinelli, Francesca |
| author2_role | ctb |
| author2_variant | f s fs |
| author_facet | Turner, David Spinelli, Francesca |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Turner, David |
| author_variant | d t dt |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV047935274 |
| collection | ZDB-13-SOC |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-13-SOC)061269123 (OCoLC)1312699092 (DE-599)BVBBV047935274 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1787/5kg0k706v2f3-en |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>00000nam a2200000zc 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV047935274</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">220413s2011 xx o|||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1787/5kg0k706v2f3-en</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(ZDB-13-SOC)061269123</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1312699092</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV047935274</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1028</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1049</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-188</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-521</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-861</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-898</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-92</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-573</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Turner, David</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics</subfield><subfield code="c">David Turner and Francesca Spinelli = Expliquer le différentiel entre taux d'intérêt et croissance qui sous-tend la dynamique de la dette publique / David Turner et Francesca Spinelli</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="246" ind1="1" ind2="3"><subfield code="a">Expliquer le différentiel entre taux d'intérêt et croissance qui sous-tend la dynamique de la dette publique</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Paris</subfield><subfield code="b">OECD Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2011</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten)</subfield><subfield code="c">21 x 29.7cm</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">OECD Economics Department Working Papers</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability. Among OECD economies, this differential was unusually low for much of the last decade compared with the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. This paper investigates the reasons behind this profile using panel estimation on 23 OECD economies. The results suggest that the fall is partly explained by lower inflation volatility associated with the adoption of monetary policy regimes which credibly target low inflation, which might be expected to continue. However, the low differential is also partly explained by factors which are likely to be reversed in the future, including very low policy rates, the "global savings glut" and the effect which the European Monetary Union had in reducing long-term interest differentials in the pre-crisis period. The differential is also likely to rise in the future because the number of countries which have debt-to-GDP ratios above a threshold at which there appears to be an effect on sovereign risk premia has risen sharply. Moreover, debt is projected to increasingly rise above this threshold in most of these countries</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Spinelli, Francesca</subfield><subfield code="4">ctb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5kg0k706v2f3-en</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="943" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033316767</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV047935274 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T19:35:04Z |
| indexdate | 2024-12-18T19:04:07Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033316767 |
| oclc_num | 1312699092 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-384 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-188 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-92 DE-573 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| owner_facet | DE-384 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-188 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-92 DE-573 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| psigel | ZDB-13-SOC |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateSearch | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | OECD Economics Department Working Papers |
| spelling | Turner, David Verfasser aut Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics David Turner and Francesca Spinelli = Expliquer le différentiel entre taux d'intérêt et croissance qui sous-tend la dynamique de la dette publique / David Turner et Francesca Spinelli Expliquer le différentiel entre taux d'intérêt et croissance qui sous-tend la dynamique de la dette publique Paris OECD Publishing 2011 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability. Among OECD economies, this differential was unusually low for much of the last decade compared with the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. This paper investigates the reasons behind this profile using panel estimation on 23 OECD economies. The results suggest that the fall is partly explained by lower inflation volatility associated with the adoption of monetary policy regimes which credibly target low inflation, which might be expected to continue. However, the low differential is also partly explained by factors which are likely to be reversed in the future, including very low policy rates, the "global savings glut" and the effect which the European Monetary Union had in reducing long-term interest differentials in the pre-crisis period. The differential is also likely to rise in the future because the number of countries which have debt-to-GDP ratios above a threshold at which there appears to be an effect on sovereign risk premia has risen sharply. Moreover, debt is projected to increasingly rise above this threshold in most of these countries Economics Spinelli, Francesca ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/5kg0k706v2f3-en Verlag kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Turner, David Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics Economics |
| title | Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics |
| title_alt | Expliquer le différentiel entre taux d'intérêt et croissance qui sous-tend la dynamique de la dette publique |
| title_auth | Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics |
| title_exact_search | Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics |
| title_full | Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics David Turner and Francesca Spinelli = Expliquer le différentiel entre taux d'intérêt et croissance qui sous-tend la dynamique de la dette publique / David Turner et Francesca Spinelli |
| title_fullStr | Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics David Turner and Francesca Spinelli = Expliquer le différentiel entre taux d'intérêt et croissance qui sous-tend la dynamique de la dette publique / David Turner et Francesca Spinelli |
| title_full_unstemmed | Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics David Turner and Francesca Spinelli = Expliquer le différentiel entre taux d'intérêt et croissance qui sous-tend la dynamique de la dette publique / David Turner et Francesca Spinelli |
| title_short | Explaining the Interest-Rate-Growth Differential Underlying Government Debt Dynamics |
| title_sort | explaining the interest rate growth differential underlying government debt dynamics |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5kg0k706v2f3-en |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT turnerdavid explainingtheinterestrategrowthdifferentialunderlyinggovernmentdebtdynamics AT spinellifrancesca explainingtheinterestrategrowthdifferentialunderlyinggovernmentdebtdynamics AT turnerdavid expliquerledifferentielentretauxdinteretetcroissancequisoustendladynamiquedeladettepublique AT spinellifrancesca expliquerledifferentielentretauxdinteretetcroissancequisoustendladynamiquedeladettepublique |