A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model: Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies
This paper develops a simple model-based framework for stress testing fiscal consolidation strategies under different scenarios of future shocks. A baseline scenario assuming a gradual debt consolidation is presented and by assuming different future developments (e.g. lower potential growth) and/or...
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| Other Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2013
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| Series: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Volltext |
| Summary: | This paper develops a simple model-based framework for stress testing fiscal consolidation strategies under different scenarios of future shocks. A baseline scenario assuming a gradual debt consolidation is presented and by assuming different future developments (e.g. lower potential growth) and/or model specification in terms of a fiscal rule confidence bands around the baseline are obtained. Trade-offs between costs and benefits are evaluated, in terms of cumulative output loss and primary surpluses, as well as political difficulty of fiscal strategies and risk of failed consolidation. The model is applied to Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. This working paper relates to the 2013 OECD Economic Surveys of Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys) |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (61 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5k43nxm8hfvf-en |
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| spelling | Kamenik, Ondra Verfasser aut A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies Ondra Kamenik ... [et al] = Un modèle de simulation simple de crise budgétaire - études de cas des économies autrichienne, allemande et tchèque / Ondra Kamenik ... [et al] Un modèle de simulation simple de crise budgétaire - études de cas des économies autrichienne, allemande et tchèque Paris OECD Publishing 2013 1 Online-Ressource (61 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers This paper develops a simple model-based framework for stress testing fiscal consolidation strategies under different scenarios of future shocks. A baseline scenario assuming a gradual debt consolidation is presented and by assuming different future developments (e.g. lower potential growth) and/or model specification in terms of a fiscal rule confidence bands around the baseline are obtained. Trade-offs between costs and benefits are evaluated, in terms of cumulative output loss and primary surpluses, as well as political difficulty of fiscal strategies and risk of failed consolidation. The model is applied to Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. This working paper relates to the 2013 OECD Economic Surveys of Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys) Taxation Economics Austria Czech Republic Germany Tuma, Zdenek ctb Vavra, David ctb Smidova, Zuzana ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/5k43nxm8hfvf-en Verlag kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Kamenik, Ondra A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies Taxation Economics Austria Czech Republic Germany |
| title | A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies |
| title_alt | Un modèle de simulation simple de crise budgétaire - études de cas des économies autrichienne, allemande et tchèque |
| title_auth | A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies |
| title_exact_search | A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies |
| title_exact_search_txtP | A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies |
| title_full | A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies Ondra Kamenik ... [et al] = Un modèle de simulation simple de crise budgétaire - études de cas des économies autrichienne, allemande et tchèque / Ondra Kamenik ... [et al] |
| title_fullStr | A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies Ondra Kamenik ... [et al] = Un modèle de simulation simple de crise budgétaire - études de cas des économies autrichienne, allemande et tchèque / Ondra Kamenik ... [et al] |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies Ondra Kamenik ... [et al] = Un modèle de simulation simple de crise budgétaire - études de cas des économies autrichienne, allemande et tchèque / Ondra Kamenik ... [et al] |
| title_short | A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model |
| title_sort | a simple fiscal stress testing model case studies of austrian czech and german economies |
| title_sub | Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies |
| topic | Taxation Economics Austria Czech Republic Germany |
| topic_facet | Taxation Economics Austria Czech Republic Germany |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5k43nxm8hfvf-en |
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