Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis: Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method
Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to m...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Edinburgh
Edinburgh University Press
[2022]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | FAW01 FAB01 FCO01 FHA01 FKE01 FLA01 UPA01 UBG01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories |
| Beschreibung: | Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 29. Mrz 2022) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (304 Seiten) |
| ISBN: | 9781474466363 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T19:33:44Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:25:13Z |
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| isbn | 9781474466363 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Whitesmith, Martha Verfasser aut Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method Martha Whitesmith Edinburgh Edinburgh University Press [2022] © 2020 1 Online-Ressource (304 Seiten) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare : ISSW Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 29. Mrz 2022) Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories In English Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE / Security (National & International) bisacsh Cognitive science Decision making Intelligence service Methodology Judgment https://www.degruyter.com/isbn/9781474466363 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Whitesmith, Martha Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE / Security (National & International) bisacsh Cognitive science Decision making Intelligence service Methodology Judgment |
| title | Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method |
| title_auth | Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method |
| title_exact_search | Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method |
| title_full | Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method Martha Whitesmith |
| title_fullStr | Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method Martha Whitesmith |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method Martha Whitesmith |
| title_short | Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis |
| title_sort | cognitive bias in intelligence analysis testing the analysis of competing hypotheses method |
| title_sub | Testing the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method |
| topic | Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE / Security (National & International) bisacsh Cognitive science Decision making Intelligence service Methodology Judgment |
| topic_facet | Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE / Security (National & International) Cognitive science Decision making Intelligence service Methodology Judgment |
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