Russia's military interventions: patterns, drivers, and signposts
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
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Santa Monica, Calif
RAND Corporation
[2021]
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| Schriftenreihe: | Research report / RAND Corporation
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Literaturverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 145-165 Gesehen am 05.10.2021 |
| Beschreibung: | xix, 165 Seiten Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9781977406460 1977406467 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents Preface.......................................................................................................... iii Figures......................................................................................................... vii Tables................................................................. ix Summary..................................................................................................... xi Acknowledgments.................................................................................... xvii Abbreviations..............................................................................................xix CHAPTER ONE Anticipating Russian Military Interventions.............................................1 Research Questions.........................................................................................3 Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 CHAPTER TWO Identifying Drivers of Military Interventions...........................................7 Geopolitical Factors.........................................................................................9 Domestic Factors........................................................................................... 14 Ideational Factors..........................................................................................21 Enablers: Capabilities.................................................................................... 25 Identifying Drivers of Russia’s Military Interventions..............................
26 Possible Factors..............................................................................................49 CHAPTER THREE Patterns in Russia’s Military Interventions............................................. 53 Identifying Military Interventions .............................................................. 53 Descriptive Statistics and Graphs................................................................. 61
vi Russia s Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts CHAPTER FOUR Case Study: 2008 Russia-Georgia War...................................................75 Factors to Be Assessed................................................................................ 84 Factor 1: External Threat to Sovereignty................................................... 87 Factor 2: Regional Power Balance................................................................ 89 Factor 3: National Status Concerns........................................................... 92 Factor 4: Partnership with Separatists......................................................... 93 Summary....................................................................................................... 95 CHAPTER FIVE Case Study: Russia’s Intervention in Syria............................................ 99 Drivers of the Intervention......................................................................... 106 Factor 1: External Threats to Sovereignty.................................................. Ill Factor 2: Regional Power Balance............................................................. 119 Factor 3: National Status Concerns........................................................... 121 Factor 4: Military Capabilities................................................................. 123 Summary..................................................................................................... 127 CHAPTER SIX
Conclusion................................................................................................. 131 Signposts of Russian Military Interventions............................................. 137 Implications for the Army.......................................................................... 138 APPENDIX List of Soviet Military Interventions...................................................... 141 References ................................................................................................. 145
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Contents Preface. iii Figures. vii Tables. ix Summary. xi Acknowledgments. xvii Abbreviations.xix CHAPTER ONE Anticipating Russian Military Interventions.1 Research Questions.3 Methodology. 3 CHAPTER TWO Identifying Drivers of Military Interventions.7 Geopolitical Factors.9 Domestic Factors. 14 Ideational Factors.21 Enablers: Capabilities. 25 Identifying Drivers of Russia’s Military Interventions.
26 Possible Factors.49 CHAPTER THREE Patterns in Russia’s Military Interventions. 53 Identifying Military Interventions . 53 Descriptive Statistics and Graphs. 61
vi Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts CHAPTER FOUR Case Study: 2008 Russia-Georgia War.75 Factors to Be Assessed. 84 Factor 1: External Threat to Sovereignty. 87 Factor 2: Regional Power Balance. 89 Factor 3: National Status Concerns. 92 Factor 4: Partnership with Separatists. 93 Summary. 95 CHAPTER FIVE Case Study: Russia’s Intervention in Syria. 99 Drivers of the Intervention. 106 Factor 1: External Threats to Sovereignty. Ill Factor 2: Regional Power Balance. 119 Factor 3: National Status Concerns. 121 Factor 4: Military Capabilities. 123 Summary. 127 CHAPTER SIX
Conclusion. 131 Signposts of Russian Military Interventions. 137 Implications for the Army. 138 APPENDIX List of Soviet Military Interventions. 141 References . 145
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Military Interventions, Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2011. Shapiro, Jeremy, and Samuel Charap, “Winning the Peace by Failing in Geneva,” Foreign Affairs, January 9, 2014. Shepovalenko, M. Yu, ed., Siriiskii rubezh, Moscow: Tsentr analiza strategii і tekhnologii, 2016. Sherr, James, “Russia-Ukraine Rapprochement?: The Black Sea Fleet Accords,” Survival, Voi. 39, No. 3, 1997, pp. 33-50. Smirnov, Vladimir, “‘Sil’nyi і opasnyi protivnik’: v Genshtabe rasskazali о sozdanii novoi 25-tysyachnoi terroristicheskoi gruppirovki v Sitii,” RT na russkom, August 25, 2017. As of August 20, 2019: https://russian.rt.com/world/article/ 423177-genshtab-terroristicheskaya-gruppirovka-siriya
162 Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts --------- , ‘“Zachem nam mir bez Rossii?’: Vladimir Putin o vozmozhnosti primeneniya yadernogo oruzhiya, terrorizme i situatsii v Sirii,” RT na russkom, March 7, 2018. As of August 20, 2019: https://russian.rt.com/russia/article/ 489649-putin-siriya-terrorizm-yadernoe-oruzhie Soufan Group, Foreign Fighters: An Updated Assessment ofthe Flow ofForeign Fighters into Syria and Iraq, New York, December 2015. Stepanova, Ekaterina, “Russia and Conflicts in the Middle East: Régionalisation and Implications for the West,” International Spectator, Voi. 53, No. 4, 2018, pp. 35-57. Stevens, Andrew, “G20 Leaders Bask in Warm Aussie Spring, but Reception for Russia’s Putin Is Chilly,” CNN, November 14, 2014. As of August 20, 2019: https://www.cnn.com/20l4/ll/l4/politics/g20-summit-brisbane/ Stoner, Kathryn, and Michael McFaul, “Who Lost Russia (This Time)? Vladimir Putin,” Washington Quarterly, Voi. 38, No. 2, Summer 2015, pp. 167-187. Sullivan, Patricia L., and Michael T. Koch, “Military Intervention by Powerful States, 1945-2003,” Journal ofPeace Research, Voi. 46, No. 5, September 2009, pp. 707-718. “Syria Peace Talks Break Up as UN Envoy Fails to End Deadlock,” The Guardian, February 15, 2014. As of August 20, 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20l4/feb/15/ syria-peace-talks-break-up-geneva Tabatabai, Ariane M., Nathan Chandler, Bryan Frederick, and Jennifer Kavanagh, Iran’s Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-A444-2, 2021. Ter, Marta, “The
Caucasus Emirate, the Other Russian Front,” Notes Internacionals, No. 129, November 2015. As of August 20, 2019: https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_series/notes_ internacionals/nl_129_el_emirato_del_caucaso_el_otro_frente_de_rusia/ the_caucasus_emirate_the_other_russian_front Theiler, Tobias, “The Microfoundations of Diversionary Conflict,” Security Studies, Voi. 27, No. 2, 2018, pp. 318—343. Thomas, Timothy L., “The Bear Went Through the Mountain: Russia Appraises Its Five-Day War in South Ossetia ľ Journal ofSlavic Military Studies, Voi. 22, No. 1, 2009, pp. 31-67. Timofeev, Ivan, Theses on Russia’s Foreign Policy and Global Positioning (20172024), Moscow: Center for Strategic Research and Russian International Affairs Council, June 2017. As of September 16, 2020: https://russiancouncil.ru/en/activity/publications/theses-on-russia-s-foreign-policy -and-global-positioning-2017-2024/
References 163 Toal, Gerard, Near Abroad: Putin, the West and the Contestfor Ukraine and the Caucasus, Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press, 2017. Trenin, Dmitri, Post-Imperium: A Eurasian Story, Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011. -------- , The Mythical Alliance: Russia’s Syria Policy, Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center, February 2013. -------- , “Russia in the Middle East: Moscow’s Objectives, Priorities, and Policy Drivers,” New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Task Force on U.S. Policy Toward Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, 2016. ---------, “Demands on Russian Foreign Policy and Its Drivers: Looking Out Five Years,” Carnegie Moscow Center, August 10, 2017. As of August 13, 2019: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/72799 ---------, What Is Russia Up to in the Middle East? Cambridge, United Kingdom: Polity Press, 2018. Tsvetkova, Maria, “How Russia Allowed Homegrown Radicals to Go and Fight in Syria,” Reuters, May 13, 2016. As of August 20, 2019: https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/russia-militants/ Tsygankov, Andrei P., Russia’s Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity, 5th ed., Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2019. “Ukaz Prezidenta Possiiskoi Federatsii ot 31 dekabrya 2015 goda N 683 ‘O Strategiya natsionaľnoi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii,’” Rossiiskaya gazeta, December 31, 2015. As of August 20, 2019: https://rg.ru/2015/12/31/nac-bezopasnost-site-dok.html Umarova, Amina, ‘“Esli na zemie est’ ad, to ya - v etom adu,”’ Radio Svoboda, October 4, 2015. As of August 20, 2019:
http://www.svoboda.org/content/article/27286075.html United Nations Security Council, Resolution 937, Expansion of the Mandate of the UN Observer Mission in Georgia and Its Cooperation with the CIS Peace-Keeping Force, S/RES/937, July 21, 1994. As of August 13, 2019: http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/937 UNSC—See United Nations Security Council. U.S. State Department, Country Reports on Human Rights Practicesfor 1993, Washington, D.C., 1994. Van Evera, Stephen, “Hypotheses on Nationalism and War,” International Security, Voi. 18, No. 4, Spring 1994, pp. 5-39. Vendil Pallin, Carolina, and Fredrik Westerlund, “Russia’s War in Georgia: Lessons and Consequences,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Voi. 20, No. 2, June 2009, pp. 400-424.
164 Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts Vorob’ev, Vladislav, “Za і PROtiv: Sergei Lavrov о vneshnepoliticheskikh vragakh, о vozmozhnoi voine mezhdu SShA i Iranom i mnogom drugom,” Rossiiskaya gazeta, October 24, 2012. As of August 20, 2019: https://rg.ru/2012/10/23/lavrov-poln.html “Vse rossiiskie voennye v Sirii progolosovali za Putina,” RIA Novosti, March 19, 2018. As of August 20, 2019: https://ria.ru/20180319/1516734471.html Wagner, Wolfgang, “Is There a Parliamentary Peace? Parliamentary Veto Power and Military Interventions from Kosovo to Daesh,” British Journal ofPolitics and International Relations, Voi. 20, No. 1, 2018, pp. 121-134. Watts, Stephen, Bryan Frederick, Jennifer Kavanagh, Angela O’Mahony, Thomas S. Szayna, Matthew Lane, Alexander Stephenson, and Colin P. Clarke, A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, RR-1177-A, 2017. As of April 27, 2020: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1177.html Way, Lucan A., “The Limits of Autocracy Promotion: The Case of Russia in the ‘Near Abroad,’” European Journal ofPolitical Research, Voi. 54, No. 4, November 2015, pp. 691-706. Weeks, Jessica L., “Strongmen and Straw Men: Authoritarian Regimes and the Initiation of International Conflict,” American Political Science Review, Voi. 106, No. 2, May 2012, pp. 326-347. Weitz, Richard, Assessing the Collective Security Treaty Organization: Capabilities and Vulnerabilities, Carlisle, Pa.: U.S. Army War College Press, October 2018. Welt, Cory, “The Thawing of a Frozen
Conflict: The Internal Security Dilemma and the 2004 Prelude to the Russo-Georgian War,” Europe-Asia Studies, Voi. 62, No. 1, 2010, pp. 63-97. White House, National Security Strategy ofthe United States ofAmerica, Washington, D.C., December 2017. Whitmore, Brian, “Scene at Russia-Georgia Border Hinted at Scripted Affair,” RFE/RL, August 23, 2008. As of August 2, 2019: https://www.rferl.Org/a/Russia_Georgian_Scripted_Affair/1193319.html Wilson, Andrew, Ukraine Crisis: What It Meansfor the West, New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2014. Wilson, Scott, “Obama Dismisses Russia as ‘Regional Power’ Acting Out of Weakness,” Washington Post, March 25, 2014. As of August 20, 2019: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-dismisses-russi a-as-regional-power-acting-out-of-weakness/20l4/03/25/le5a678e-b439-lle 3-b899-20667de76985_story.html?utm_term=.6a5dbe99bcc0
References 165 Wilson, Scott, and Joby Warrick, “Assad Must Go, Obama Says,” Washington Post, August 18, 2011. As of August 20, 2019: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/assad-must-go-obama-says/2011/08/18/ gIQAelheOJ_story.html Wintour, Patrick, “Russia and US ‘Planning Military Coordination Against ISIS in Syria,’” The Guardian, March 30, 2016. As of August 20, 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/30/ russia-and-us-planning-military-coordination-against-isis-in-syria Wolff, Andrew T., “The Future of NATO Enlargement After the Ukraine Crisis,” International Affairs, Voi. 91, No. 5, 2015, pp. 1103-1121. Wu, Joshua Su-Ya, and Austin J. Knuppe, “My Brother’s Keeper? Religious Cues and Support for Foreign Military Intervention,” Politics and Religion, Voi. 9, No. 3, September 2016, pp. 537-565. Yoon, Mi Yung, “Explaining U.S. Intervention in Third World Internal Wars, 1945-1989,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Voi. 41, No. 4, August 1997, pp. 580-602. Yusin, Maksim, and Sergei Strokan, “Ni mira, ni Pal’mira,” Kommersant, May 22, 2015. As of August 20, 2019: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2731056 Zevelev, Igor, Russian National Identity and Foreign Policy, Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 2016. As of August 13, 2019: https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-national-identity-and-foreign-policy Ziegler, Charles E., “Contesting the Responsibility to Protect,” International Studies Perspectives, Voi. 17, No. 1, February 2016, pp. 75—97. Zygar, Mikhail, All the Kremlins Men: Inside the Court of Vladimir Putin, New York:
PublicAffairs, 2016a. --------- , “The Russian Reset That Never Was,” Foreign Policy, December 9, 2016b. As of August 20, 2019: https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/12/09/the-russian-reset-that-never-was-putin-ob ama-medvedev-libya-mikhail-zygar-all-the-kremlin-men/ Bayerische t Staatsbibliothek f München j |
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| spelling | Charap, Samuel 1980- Verfasser (DE-588)1140057758 aut Russia's military interventions patterns, drivers, and signposts Samuel Charap, Edward Geist, Bryan Frederick, John J. Drennan, Nathan Chandler, Jennifer Kavangh Santa Monica, Calif RAND Corporation [2021] xix, 165 Seiten Illustrationen txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Research report / RAND Corporation Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 145-165 Gesehen am 05.10.2021 Geschichte 1992-2018 gnd rswk-swf Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd rswk-swf Militärische Intervention (DE-588)4027497-4 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Militärische Intervention (DE-588)4027497-4 s Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 s Geschichte 1992-2018 z DE-604 Geist, Edward Verfasser (DE-588)1152015281 aut Frederick, Bryan Verfasser (DE-588)1148323317 aut Drennan, John Verfasser (DE-588)1203094132 aut Chandler, Nathan 1982- Verfasser (DE-588)1188739034 aut Kavanagh, Jennifer 1981- Verfasser (DE-588)1178053903 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 1-977406-46-7 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032961352&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032961352&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Charap, Samuel 1980- Geist, Edward Frederick, Bryan Drennan, John Chandler, Nathan 1982- Kavanagh, Jennifer 1981- Russia's military interventions patterns, drivers, and signposts Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Militärische Intervention (DE-588)4027497-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4003846-4 (DE-588)4027497-4 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | Russia's military interventions patterns, drivers, and signposts |
| title_auth | Russia's military interventions patterns, drivers, and signposts |
| title_exact_search | Russia's military interventions patterns, drivers, and signposts |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Russia's military interventions patterns, drivers, and signposts |
| title_full | Russia's military interventions patterns, drivers, and signposts Samuel Charap, Edward Geist, Bryan Frederick, John J. Drennan, Nathan Chandler, Jennifer Kavangh |
| title_fullStr | Russia's military interventions patterns, drivers, and signposts Samuel Charap, Edward Geist, Bryan Frederick, John J. Drennan, Nathan Chandler, Jennifer Kavangh |
| title_full_unstemmed | Russia's military interventions patterns, drivers, and signposts Samuel Charap, Edward Geist, Bryan Frederick, John J. Drennan, Nathan Chandler, Jennifer Kavangh |
| title_short | Russia's military interventions |
| title_sort | russia s military interventions patterns drivers and signposts |
| title_sub | patterns, drivers, and signposts |
| topic | Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Militärische Intervention (DE-588)4027497-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Außenpolitik Militärische Intervention Russland |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032961352&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032961352&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT charapsamuel russiasmilitaryinterventionspatternsdriversandsignposts AT geistedward russiasmilitaryinterventionspatternsdriversandsignposts AT frederickbryan russiasmilitaryinterventionspatternsdriversandsignposts AT drennanjohn russiasmilitaryinterventionspatternsdriversandsignposts AT chandlernathan russiasmilitaryinterventionspatternsdriversandsignposts AT kavanaghjennifer russiasmilitaryinterventionspatternsdriversandsignposts |