Lost in a Gallup: polling failure in U.S. presidential elections
"Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Oakland, California
University of California Press
[2020]
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | BSB01 UBG01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | "Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris. The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists-including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson-were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling's messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important and highly anticipated of all American elections"-- |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (xv, 318 Seiten) Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9780520972131 |
| DOI: | 10.1525/9780520972131 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| author | Campbell, W. Joseph 1952- |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T18:15:42Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:13:35Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780520972131 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Campbell, W. Joseph 1952- Verfasser (DE-588)132397080 aut Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections W. Joseph Campbell Oakland, California University of California Press [2020] © 2020 1 Online-Ressource (xv, 318 Seiten) Illustrationen txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier "Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris. The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists-including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson-were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling's messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important and highly anticipated of all American elections"-- USA Präsident (DE-588)2033432-1 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte gnd rswk-swf Wahlkampf (DE-588)4064292-6 gnd rswk-swf Präsidentenwahl (DE-588)4047020-9 gnd rswk-swf Presidents / United States / Election / History Elections / United States / History Voting / United States / History Press and politics / United States / History Political campaigns / United States / History Presidential candidates / United States United States / Politics and government Elections Political campaigns Politics and government Presidential candidates Presidents / Election Press and politics Voting United States History USA Präsident (DE-588)2033432-1 b Präsidentenwahl (DE-588)4047020-9 s Wahlkampf (DE-588)4064292-6 s Geschichte z DE-604 Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe 978-0-520-30096-5 https://doi.org/10.1525/9780520972131 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Campbell, W. Joseph 1952- Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections USA Präsident (DE-588)2033432-1 gnd Wahlkampf (DE-588)4064292-6 gnd Präsidentenwahl (DE-588)4047020-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)2033432-1 (DE-588)4064292-6 (DE-588)4047020-9 |
| title | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |
| title_auth | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |
| title_exact_search | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |
| title_full | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections W. Joseph Campbell |
| title_fullStr | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections W. Joseph Campbell |
| title_full_unstemmed | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections W. Joseph Campbell |
| title_short | Lost in a Gallup |
| title_sort | lost in a gallup polling failure in u s presidential elections |
| title_sub | polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |
| topic | USA Präsident (DE-588)2033432-1 gnd Wahlkampf (DE-588)4064292-6 gnd Präsidentenwahl (DE-588)4047020-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | USA Präsident Wahlkampf Präsidentenwahl |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1525/9780520972131 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT campbellwjoseph lostinagalluppollingfailureinuspresidentialelections |