"There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decision...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Bibliographische Detailangaben

1. Verfasser:	Clayton, Aubrey (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	New York Columbia University Press [2021]
Schlagworte:	Bernoulli, Jakob > 1655-1705 Geschichte Philosophie Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung Statistik Bernoulli, Jakob / 1654-1705 / Influence Probabilities / Philosophy / 19th century Probabilities / Philosophy / 20th century Mathematical statistics / Philosophy Binomial distribution Law of large numbers
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Zusammenfassung:	"There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and our ability to make inferences from data. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. Clayton highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-incorporating prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it"--
Beschreibung:	Includes bibliographical references and index
Beschreibung:	XVIII, 347 Seiten 25 cm
ISBN:	9780231199940