Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union:
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cham, Switzerland
Springer
[2020]
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext |
| Beschreibung: | xiv, 361 Seiten Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9783030322076 9783030322045 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union |c Abdykappar A. Ashimov, Yuriy V. Borovskiy, Dmitry A. Novikov, Bakyt T. Sultanov, Mukhit A. Onalbekov |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cham, Switzerland |b Springer |c [2020] | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Sultanov, Bakyt T. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents 1 Parametric Control of Macroeconomic Systems: Basic Components of Theory...................................................................... 1.1 Structure of Theory of Parametric Control......................................... 1.2 Parameter Identification Algorithm for Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models........................................................................ 1.3 Numerical Estimation Methods for some Types of Stability of Mathematical Macroeconomic Models....................... 1.3.1 Numerical Estimation Methods for Weak Structural Stability of Dynamic Models................................. 1.3.2 Numerical Estimation Methods for Stability Indexes of Model Mappings.................................................... 1.3.3 Numerical Estimation Methods for Stability of Differentiable Model Mappings.......................................... 1.3.4 Numerical Estimation Methods for Stability of Germs of Differential Model Mappings............................. 1.4 Some Properties of Solutions of Parametric Control Problems................................................................................... 1.4.1 Sufficient Conditions for the Existence of Solutions of Optimal Parametric Control Design and Choice Problems................................................... 1.4.2 Sufficient Conditions for a Continuous Dependence of Optimal Criteria Values on Uncontrolled Functions in Optimal Parametric Control Design and Choice Problems................................................................ 1.4.3 Sufficient Conditions for the Existence of Bifurcation
Points for Extremals of Optimal Parametric Control Choice Problems...................................... 1.5 Example: Parametric Control of Cyclic Dynamics Based on Kondratiev’s Cycle Model................................................... 1 2 3 5 5 8 10 21 31 31 48 58 61 ix
x Contents 1.6 2 3 Example: Parametric Control of Nonlinear Dynamic System Based on Lorenz Model and Estimation of Bifurcation Points for Extremals...................................................... Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control Based on Global Multi-country Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (Model 1)...................................................... 2.1 Modeling Procedure............................................................................... 2.1.1 Conceptual Description of the Global Economy................... 2.1.2 Building of Model 1 and Solution Algorithm........................ 2.2 Adaptation of Model 1 to the Goals of Research............................... 2.2.1 Choice of Economic Regions and Sectors, Retrospective and Forecasting Periods for Computer Simulations......................................................... 2.2.2 Initial Database and Calibration of Model 1.......................... 2.3 Applicability Testing of Model 1......................................................... 2.4 Macroeconomic Analysis Based on Model 1...................................... 2.4.1 Comparative Snapshot Analysis Based on Model 1.............. 2.4.2 Scenario Analysis Based on Model 1..................................... 2.5 Parametric Control Based on Model 1: A Series of Problem Statements and Their Solutions............................................................ 2.5.1 Problems of Economic Growth, Food Security, Reduction of Trade Gap, and Regional Development
Disproportions........................................................................... 2.5.2 Structural Adjustment Problem at a Sectoral Level............... 2.5.3 Testing of Solutions Applicability........................................... 2.5.4 Study of Solutions Dependence on Uncontrolled Parameters.................................................................................. Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control Based on Global Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (Model 2)............................................................................................ 3.1 Conceptual Description of the Global Economy Within Model 2...................................................................................... 3.1.1 Prerequisites for Global Economy Description...................... 3.1.2 Conceptual Description of Household’s Behavior................ 3.1.3 Conceptual Description of Firm’s Behavior........................... 3.1.4 Conceptual Description of Second-Level Bank’s Behavior........................................................................ 3.1.5 Conceptual Description of State’s Behavior.......................... 3.1.6 Balance and Auxiliary Equations............................................ 3.2 Nonlinear Modeling and Parameter Estimation.................................. 3.2.1 Nonlinear Model 2 and Estimation of Its Parameters........................................................................ 3.2.2 Building of Linear Model 2..................................................... 65 73 74 74 104 106 106 107 126 127 127 162 191
192 196 199 200 203 204 204 205 229 246 257 268 272 272 273
Contents xi 3.2.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 4 Adaptation to the Goals of Research, Parameter Identification and Calibration of Linear Model 2.................. 274 3.2.4 Adjustment of Parameter Values for Nonlinear Model 2..................................................................................... 278 Applicability Testing of Model 2........................................................ 278 3.3.1 Testing with Stability Indexes.................................................. 279 3.3.2 Testing with Retrospective Forecasting.................................. 279 3.3.3 Testing with Moments.............................................................. 279 3.3.4 Testing with Impulse Responses............................................. 281 3.3.5 Testing with Local Sensitivity Analysis.................................. 281 3.3.6 Testing with Marginal Likelihood Comparison..................... 285 Mid-term Forecasting and Macroeconomic Analysis Based on Model 2................................................................................. 286 3.4.1 Know are and Software for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Analysis.................................................. 286 3.4.2 Solution of Basic Mid-term Forecasting Problems.................................................................................... 287 3.4.3 Solution of Snapshot Macroeconomic Analysis Problems.................................................................... 289 3.4.4 Solution of Scenario Macroeconomic Analysis Problems.................................................................... 293 Parametric Control
Based on Model 2: A Series of Problem Statements and Their Solutions............................................................ 298 3.5.1 Problem Statements for Parametric Control........................... 298 3.5.2 Solutions of Parametric Control Problems............................. 300 3.5.3 Applicability Testing of Solutions.......................................... 302 3.5.4 Study of Solutions Dependence on Uncontrolled Parameters................................................................................. 305 Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control Based on Global Multi-country Hybrid Econometric Model (Model 3)............................................................................................ 4.1 Building of Model 3.............................................................................. 4.2 Applicability Testing of Model 3......................................................... 4.3 Macroeconomic Analysis and Mid-term Forecasting Based on Model 3................................................................................. 4.3.1 Knowhow and Software for Macroeconomic Analysis and Mid-term Forecasting........................................ 4.3.2 Examples of Mid-term Forecasts Based on Model 3................................................................................ 4.3.3 Examples of Comparative Macroeconomic Analysis..................................................................................... 4.3.4 Examples of Scenario Macroeconomic
Analysis..................................................................................... 309 309 311 314 314 316 317 329
xii Contents 4.4 Parametric Control Based on Model 3: A Series of Problem Statements and Their Solutions............................................................ 4.4.1 Problem Statements for Parametric Control........................... 4.4.2 Solutions of Parametric Control Problems............................. 4.4.3 Applicability Testing of Solutions........................................... 4.4.4 Study of Solutions Dependence on Uncontrolled Parameters.................................................................................. 340 340 341 344 345 Conclusions........................................................................................................... 347 References............................................................................................................. 351 Index...................................................................................................................... 355
Abdykappar A. Ashimov · Yuriy V. Borovskiy · Dmitry A. Novikov · Bakyt T. Sultanov MukhitA. Onalbekov Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control of a Regional Economic Union This book is a further development of the theory of parametric control. It includes: numerical methods of testing (verification) of software implementation of mathematical models by assessing the stability of mappings defined by the model; sufficient conditions for the existence of the solutions of some types of problems of dynamic optimization; the existence of continuous dependence of optimal values of criteria on exogenous functions and parameters; and the existence of points of bifurcation of extremals of such problems. It demonstrates that this theory offers a constructive methodology for middle-term forecasting, macroeconomic analysis and estimation of optimal values of economic characteristics on the basis of advanced global mathematical models, namely Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model, and Hybrid Econometric model. In addition, it includes conditions for the applicability of the computational experiments’ results, into practice.
|
| adam_txt |
Contents 1 Parametric Control of Macroeconomic Systems: Basic Components of Theory. 1.1 Structure of Theory of Parametric Control. 1.2 Parameter Identification Algorithm for Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models. 1.3 Numerical Estimation Methods for some Types of Stability of Mathematical Macroeconomic Models. 1.3.1 Numerical Estimation Methods for Weak Structural Stability of Dynamic Models. 1.3.2 Numerical Estimation Methods for Stability Indexes of Model Mappings. 1.3.3 Numerical Estimation Methods for Stability of Differentiable Model Mappings. 1.3.4 Numerical Estimation Methods for Stability of Germs of Differential Model Mappings. 1.4 Some Properties of Solutions of Parametric Control Problems. 1.4.1 Sufficient Conditions for the Existence of Solutions of Optimal Parametric Control Design and Choice Problems. 1.4.2 Sufficient Conditions for a Continuous Dependence of Optimal Criteria Values on Uncontrolled Functions in Optimal Parametric Control Design and Choice Problems. 1.4.3 Sufficient Conditions for the Existence of Bifurcation
Points for Extremals of Optimal Parametric Control Choice Problems. 1.5 Example: Parametric Control of Cyclic Dynamics Based on Kondratiev’s Cycle Model. 1 2 3 5 5 8 10 21 31 31 48 58 61 ix
x Contents 1.6 2 3 Example: Parametric Control of Nonlinear Dynamic System Based on Lorenz Model and Estimation of Bifurcation Points for Extremals. Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control Based on Global Multi-country Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (Model 1). 2.1 Modeling Procedure. 2.1.1 Conceptual Description of the Global Economy. 2.1.2 Building of Model 1 and Solution Algorithm. 2.2 Adaptation of Model 1 to the Goals of Research. 2.2.1 Choice of Economic Regions and Sectors, Retrospective and Forecasting Periods for Computer Simulations. 2.2.2 Initial Database and Calibration of Model 1. 2.3 Applicability Testing of Model 1. 2.4 Macroeconomic Analysis Based on Model 1. 2.4.1 Comparative Snapshot Analysis Based on Model 1. 2.4.2 Scenario Analysis Based on Model 1. 2.5 Parametric Control Based on Model 1: A Series of Problem Statements and Their Solutions. 2.5.1 Problems of Economic Growth, Food Security, Reduction of Trade Gap, and Regional Development
Disproportions. 2.5.2 Structural Adjustment Problem at a Sectoral Level. 2.5.3 Testing of Solutions Applicability. 2.5.4 Study of Solutions Dependence on Uncontrolled Parameters. Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control Based on Global Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (Model 2). 3.1 Conceptual Description of the Global Economy Within Model 2. 3.1.1 Prerequisites for Global Economy Description. 3.1.2 Conceptual Description of Household’s Behavior. 3.1.3 Conceptual Description of Firm’s Behavior. 3.1.4 Conceptual Description of Second-Level Bank’s Behavior. 3.1.5 Conceptual Description of State’s Behavior. 3.1.6 Balance and Auxiliary Equations. 3.2 Nonlinear Modeling and Parameter Estimation. 3.2.1 Nonlinear Model 2 and Estimation of Its Parameters. 3.2.2 Building of Linear Model 2. 65 73 74 74 104 106 106 107 126 127 127 162 191
192 196 199 200 203 204 204 205 229 246 257 268 272 272 273
Contents xi 3.2.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 4 Adaptation to the Goals of Research, Parameter Identification and Calibration of Linear Model 2. 274 3.2.4 Adjustment of Parameter Values for Nonlinear Model 2. 278 Applicability Testing of Model 2. 278 3.3.1 Testing with Stability Indexes. 279 3.3.2 Testing with Retrospective Forecasting. 279 3.3.3 Testing with Moments. 279 3.3.4 Testing with Impulse Responses. 281 3.3.5 Testing with Local Sensitivity Analysis. 281 3.3.6 Testing with Marginal Likelihood Comparison. 285 Mid-term Forecasting and Macroeconomic Analysis Based on Model 2. 286 3.4.1 Know are and Software for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Analysis. 286 3.4.2 Solution of Basic Mid-term Forecasting Problems. 287 3.4.3 Solution of Snapshot Macroeconomic Analysis Problems. 289 3.4.4 Solution of Scenario Macroeconomic Analysis Problems. 293 Parametric Control
Based on Model 2: A Series of Problem Statements and Their Solutions. 298 3.5.1 Problem Statements for Parametric Control. 298 3.5.2 Solutions of Parametric Control Problems. 300 3.5.3 Applicability Testing of Solutions. 302 3.5.4 Study of Solutions Dependence on Uncontrolled Parameters. 305 Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control Based on Global Multi-country Hybrid Econometric Model (Model 3). 4.1 Building of Model 3. 4.2 Applicability Testing of Model 3. 4.3 Macroeconomic Analysis and Mid-term Forecasting Based on Model 3. 4.3.1 Knowhow and Software for Macroeconomic Analysis and Mid-term Forecasting. 4.3.2 Examples of Mid-term Forecasts Based on Model 3. 4.3.3 Examples of Comparative Macroeconomic Analysis. 4.3.4 Examples of Scenario Macroeconomic
Analysis. 309 309 311 314 314 316 317 329
xii Contents 4.4 Parametric Control Based on Model 3: A Series of Problem Statements and Their Solutions. 4.4.1 Problem Statements for Parametric Control. 4.4.2 Solutions of Parametric Control Problems. 4.4.3 Applicability Testing of Solutions. 4.4.4 Study of Solutions Dependence on Uncontrolled Parameters. 340 340 341 344 345 Conclusions. 347 References. 351 Index. 355
Abdykappar A. Ashimov · Yuriy V. Borovskiy · Dmitry A. Novikov · Bakyt T. Sultanov MukhitA. Onalbekov Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control of a Regional Economic Union This book is a further development of the theory of parametric control. It includes: numerical methods of testing (verification) of software implementation of mathematical models by assessing the stability of mappings defined by the model; sufficient conditions for the existence of the solutions of some types of problems of dynamic optimization; the existence of continuous dependence of optimal values of criteria on exogenous functions and parameters; and the existence of points of bifurcation of extremals of such problems. It demonstrates that this theory offers a constructive methodology for middle-term forecasting, macroeconomic analysis and estimation of optimal values of economic characteristics on the basis of advanced global mathematical models, namely Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model, and Hybrid Econometric model. In addition, it includes conditions for the applicability of the computational experiments’ results, into practice. |
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| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Ashimov, Abdykappar A. Verfasser (DE-588)1207103209 aut Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union Abdykappar A. Ashimov, Yuriy V. Borovskiy, Dmitry A. Novikov, Bakyt T. Sultanov, Mukhit A. Onalbekov Cham, Switzerland Springer [2020] © 2020 xiv, 361 Seiten Illustrationen txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Operations Research/Decision Theory Economic Policy Macroeconomics Economic theory Operations research Decision making Economic policy Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 s DE-604 Borovskich, Jurij Vasilʹevič Verfasser (DE-588)1089198523 aut Novikov, D. A. 1970- Verfasser (DE-588)1042803277 aut Sultanov, Bakyt T. Verfasser aut Onalbekov, Mukhit A. Verfasser aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-3-030-32205-2 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032662343&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032662343&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext |
| spellingShingle | Ashimov, Abdykappar A. Borovskich, Jurij Vasilʹevič Novikov, D. A. 1970- Sultanov, Bakyt T. Onalbekov, Mukhit A. Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Operations Research/Decision Theory Economic Policy Macroeconomics Economic theory Operations research Decision making Economic policy Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4037174-8 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union |
| title_auth | Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union |
| title_exact_search | Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union |
| title_full | Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union Abdykappar A. Ashimov, Yuriy V. Borovskiy, Dmitry A. Novikov, Bakyt T. Sultanov, Mukhit A. Onalbekov |
| title_fullStr | Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union Abdykappar A. Ashimov, Yuriy V. Borovskiy, Dmitry A. Novikov, Bakyt T. Sultanov, Mukhit A. Onalbekov |
| title_full_unstemmed | Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union Abdykappar A. Ashimov, Yuriy V. Borovskiy, Dmitry A. Novikov, Bakyt T. Sultanov, Mukhit A. Onalbekov |
| title_short | Macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union |
| title_sort | macroeconomic analysis and parametric control of a regional economic union |
| topic | Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Operations Research/Decision Theory Economic Policy Macroeconomics Economic theory Operations research Decision making Economic policy Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Operations Research/Decision Theory Economic Policy Macroeconomics Economic theory Operations research Decision making Economic policy Makroökonomie Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032662343&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032662343&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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