Russia resurrected: its power and purpose in a new global order
"This book refutes the idea that Russia plays a weak hand well in international politics. The book argues instead that Russia under Vladimir Putin's regime may not be as weak as is sometimes thought in the West. It takes a multi-dimensional approach in assessing Russian state power in inte...
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Oxford University Press
[2021]
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Register // Gemischte Register |
| Zusammenfassung: | "This book refutes the idea that Russia plays a weak hand well in international politics. The book argues instead that Russia under Vladimir Putin's regime may not be as weak as is sometimes thought in the West. It takes a multi-dimensional approach in assessing Russian state power in international relations, going beyond metrics of power like relative strength of the economy, human capital, and size of the military, to also include the policy weight or importance of Russian firms and industries, as well as where geographically, Russian influence has spread globally. The book includes fresh empirical data on the Russian economy, demography and human capital, and conventional military and nuclear weaponry capacities in Russia relative to other great powers like China and the United States. The book argues that realpolitik alone does not explain Russian foreign policy choices under Putin. Rather, Putin's patronal autocratic regime and the need for social stability plays an important role in understanding when and why Russian power is projected in the 21st century"-- |
| Beschreibung: | xix, 317 Seiten Diagramme, Karten |
| ISBN: | 9780190860714 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Russia resurrected |b its power and purpose in a new global order |c Kathryn E. Stoner |
| 264 | 1 | |a New York, NY |b Oxford University Press |c [2021] | |
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| 505 | 8 | |a Is Russia resurrected? -- Russia as a regional power -- Where (else) in the world is Russia? -- The unsteady economic means of Russian power -- Russian society as power resource or constraint? -- Russian hard power: conventional and nuclear assets -- Russia's soft and sharp power -- old wine in new bottles? -- The domestic determinants of Russia's resurrection | |
| 520 | 3 | |a "This book refutes the idea that Russia plays a weak hand well in international politics. The book argues instead that Russia under Vladimir Putin's regime may not be as weak as is sometimes thought in the West. It takes a multi-dimensional approach in assessing Russian state power in international relations, going beyond metrics of power like relative strength of the economy, human capital, and size of the military, to also include the policy weight or importance of Russian firms and industries, as well as where geographically, Russian influence has spread globally. The book includes fresh empirical data on the Russian economy, demography and human capital, and conventional military and nuclear weaponry capacities in Russia relative to other great powers like China and the United States. The book argues that realpolitik alone does not explain Russian foreign policy choices under Putin. Rather, Putin's patronal autocratic regime and the need for social stability plays an important role in understanding when and why Russian power is projected in the 21st century"-- | |
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| 653 | 2 | |a Russia (Federation) / Politics and government / 1991- | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Russia (Federation) / Economic conditions / 1991- | |
| 653 | 1 | |a Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich / 1952- / Influence | |
| 653 | 2 | |a Russia (Federation) / Forecasting | |
| 653 | 0 | |a International relations / Forecasting | |
| 653 | 1 | |a Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich / 1952- | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Diplomatic relations | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Economic history | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Forecasting | |
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| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Online version |z 9780190860738 |a Stoner, Kathryn |t Russia resurrected |d New York : Oxford University Press, 2021 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | CONTENTS Acknowledgments ix List of Figures xiii List of Tables xvii Note on Transliterations xix SECTION I: RUSSIA AND THE DIMENSIONS OF STATE POWER 1. Is Russia Resurrected? з SECTION II: THE GEOGRAPHIC DOMAIN AND POLICY SCOPE OF RUSSIAN POWER 2. Where Does Russia Matter? 31 3. Where (Else) in the World Is Russia? 69 SECTION III: THE MEANS OF RUSSIAN POWER 4. Ihe Unsteady Economic Basis of Russian Power 119 5. Russian Society as Power Resource or Constraint? iss 6. Russian Hard Power ш 7. Russian Soft and Sharp Power Resources VII 216
viii CONTENTS SECTION IV: THE PURPOSES BEHIND RUSSIAN POWER PROJECTION ABROAD 8. The Domestic Determinants of Russia’s Resurrection Notes 269 Index 303 23s
INDEX For the benefit of digital users, indexed terms that span two pages (e.g, 52-53) may, on occasion, appear on only one ofthose pages. References to figures and tables are indicated by an italicƒ and t, respectively. Abkhazia 9-10,41-43,48-49,53-54,61 Afghanistan Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 drug trafficking, 58-60 Islamic extremists and insurgency, 59,62 revolution promotion, 70,101-2 Russian border patrols, 59-60 Soviet war, 88-89,182-83 U.S. involvement, 9,17-18,60,184,187-88, 240-41,242-43 withdrawal, 42-43,182-83 Africa. See aho Middle East and North Africa (MENA); Sub-Saharan Africa China in, 103-5 revolution promotion, 70 trade, 105 agriculture China, 62 European exports, 78-79 Iran exports, 91-92 Latin American exports, 106-7 Moldova, 50 production failures, 123-25,135,139-40, 144-46,145ƒ Turkish exports, 95-96 agriculture exports Europe, 78-79 Iran, 91-92 Latin American, 106-7 Turkey, 95-96 air combat capabilities, 201-4,202i al-Assad, Bashar, 24,88,90,95-96,101-2,18586,190-91,235-36 alcohol abuse and alcoholism, 124,126,156-57, 158-59,165-66 Aleksandr Lukashenko, 52-54 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty, U.S. withdrawal, 7 Arab Spring, 99,240-41,260 Arctic, 5-6,32 exploration, China and, 111-12 leadership and naval presence, 199-200 military and sea access, 113,152,199-200 military bases, 110,199-200 military exercises and readiness, 204-5 oil and gas, 102,197-200,243-44 trade routes, 109-10 Armenia, 54-58. See also Caucasus Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 migrant worker
remittances to, 56r population, land area, and GDP, 34,35ř ArmRosGazprom 54-55 arms control, 205,242,266 agreements, 205,266 New START, 9,205-7,209,242-43 Åslund, Anders, 46,126-27,254 authoritarianism legacy, on foreign policy, 22,272n.56 autocracy, 246-47 patronal regime politics and power, 246-48 tightening, domestic power for, 248-52 autocratic post-Soviet states, 51-63. See aho specific states Azerbaijan, 54-58 migrant worker remittances to, 56t population, land area, and GDP, 34,35t 303
304 INDEX Bagge, Daniel, 231 Bakiyev, Rurmanbek, 9-10,53-54,60,61 Baldwin, David, 4-5,16 Baltic States, 36-40,37/. See aho individual states Bolsheviks, 273n.6 NATO membership, 36-37 banking BRICS Development Bank, 112-13 Russian Central Bank, 126-27,134-35, 137-38,140-41 Soviet Union, 123,284n.6 VTB Bank, 147-48 World Bank, 6,8,130,131-32 Barnett, Michael, 16 Barro, Robert, 146-47 Belarus, 51-54 Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-33 Eurasian Economic Union, 46,52 migrant worker remittances to, S6t population, land area, and GDP, 34,351 Benghazi, 100 Berezovsky, Boris, 149-51,250 Blue Stream, 95 Boghardt, Thomas, 225-26 borders China, 32-33 Russia, 32-33,32n.3,273n.5 security, 51,58-60,61-62 brain drain, 169/, 170/, 170-75 Breedlove, General, 244-45 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), 7-8,104-5,106-7,112-13. See also specific countries deaths, 5 years, 165 doctors per capita vs. preventable infectious disease probability, 166 economic complexity, 143/ external debt-to-GNI ratio, 138-39,139/ foreign reserves, 138,139/ GDP, vs. Russia, 129/, 130-31 GDP per capita, 131/, 131 GDP per capita, vs. Russia, 122-23 Gini coefficient, 172/ health expenditures, 166 Human Development Index ranking, 157 inward foreign direct investment, as percent of GDP, 141/ oil and gas exports, 144ƒ patent grants, 150/ poverty headcount ratio, 174f research and development spending, 149f unemployment rates, 136/ university graduates with STEM degrees, 178/ BRICS Development Bank, 112-13 Bronze Soldier riots, 39-40,273n.9 Bulgaria, Russian investments, 79 bureaucracy,
152-53 corruption, 119-20,121,125-26 Federal Districts, 251 Bush, George H. W., 7,74,207 Bush, George W., 7,10,42,44,76,242 Caucasus, 54-58 Central Asia, 58-63. See also specific countries history, pre-Soviet, 34 Chechnya wars, 183 China, 109-12. See aho BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in Africa, 103-5 economy, 3-4,13-14,80-131,282-83n.l31 falling out, 1991,71-72 foreign investment in, 132-33 geography and borders, 32-33 as great power, 62 gross domestic product, 3-4,129/ 130/, 130-31,131/ investment in Russia, 135,141/ 143 Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, 61,62 labor productivity, 132-33 military, 109-10,182 military, equipment purchases, 92,110 military, spending, 3-4 oil and gas exports to, 111, 144/ patent grants, 150/ population, 3-4,130-31 power, 17,19 research and development spending, 97,149/ Russian relations, 4,5-6,12,19,62-63, 65,109-12 security and trade, 109-11 as Venezuelas banker, 108 wealth, household, 254 Clinton, Bill, 7, 75,242 Kosovo conflict, 74,277n.l0 Yeltsin negotiations, 277n.l0 Clinton, Hillary, 13,227,228-30,257-58 Coats, Dan, 109 Cold War, 266 arms control agreements, 205,266 capitalism vs. communism, 70-72 Cuba, 12-13,106-7 as defeat. West on, 20 demise and end, 5-6,10-11 grievances since, 240,242,245,246 information wars, 225 Middle East, 87-88 nuclear arsenals, 205 Ukraine aggression, 20 Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), 57-58,61,64-66,112-13,219,275n.61 color revolutions, 41,48—49,52,60,223,240—41,262 Orange Revolution, 7,10,44-46,47,262-63 Rose (Georgia), 7,40-41
INDEX Colton, Timothy, 125-26 Comey, James, on election interference, 13 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 51-52,64 communism agenda, 70 vs. capitalism, 70-71 China, 70,71-72 collapse, 3,5-7,21,33,72,124-25,269n.6 collapse, NATO memberships after, 74-75 empire, Soviet, 5-7 expansionism and influence, 70, 87-88,246 inequality, eradication, 80-81 institutions, 34 legacy, 25 politics, 120-21 support, after World War II, 70,73 tenets, central, 127 Connolly, Richard, 191-92 constitution, 47-48,235,250-51,254-55, 257-58,264-65 Conte, Giuseppe, 221-22 Cooley, Alex, 58,61-62,64 coronavirus, 221-22,236 corruption, 7-8,21-22,62,119,257 on economic stability, 149-51,151/ ehtes, 21-22,254,266-67 healthcare, 165 Kuchma government, 45 official, 125-26 pervasive, 23,41 post-communist period, immediate, 121 protests, 170-71,173,264 Skolkovo, 177 Sochi Olympics cost, 222-23 World Bank measures, 134-35 Covid-19,162-63,221-22,236 Crane, Keith, 208-9 Crimea, 43-44,47-49. See aho Ukraine history and national mythology, 43-44 Orange Revolution, 7, 10, 44-46, 47, 262-63 population, 3-4,124 Russians in, 222,259-60,261-62 Ukraine’s possession, 44 UN condemnation and resolution, 99, 111-12,113 Crimea invasion and annexation, 3,47-49 as defense of Russia’s national interests, 244 as defense of Russia’s national interests, arguments against, 256-57 explanations, popular, 18-19 Le Pen support, 84 New Look military, 185 nuclear response, possibility, 10-11,209 Putin’s decision and explanation, 13,24,241 rationale, history and Russian Orthodoxy, 21 ՅՕՏ sanctions after, 66,120,129,221-22,244 snap
exercise preparations, 204 soft power, 218-19 on South Stream, Bulgaria, 82-83 Wests provocation rationale, 238-40 cronyism, 22-23,301-2n.87 CSTO. See Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) cyberattacks Baltics, 39-40 U.S. election, 2016,12-13,19, 226-27, 229-30 cyberpower and cyber interventions, 3,13-14,19, 217,226-31 espionage, 67 espionage, Europe, 83 espionage, France, 84 Cyprus, 78-79 Czech Republic, NATO, 74-75 Dahl, Robert, 15 Dawisha, Karen, 253-54 death rate, 126,155-56,161/, 161-63, 164,165-66 debt Cold War, 242 foreign, 8,125,126-27 military expenditures, 123 payments, 136-37 state-owned companies, 122 debt-to֊GDP ratio, 131-32,133-34 debt-to-GNI ratio, 138-39,139/ defense spending, 186-94,187-93nnf-f 2000-2018,186-87,187/ purchasing power parity weighted, 191 -92 vs. U.S., China, and others, in U.S. dollars, 190-91,191/ vs. U.S. and China, in U.S. dollars, 190/, 190 vs. U.S. and China, percentage ofgovernment spending, 187-89,188/, 29ІП.26 vs. world highest defense spenders, 192-94,193/ Delanoe, Igor, 87-88 demographics. See aho specific topics fertility rate, 155-56,162/, 162-63,164,167 infant mortality, 165,173-74 Mandatory Health Insurance, 165 mortality rate and trends, 14,155-56,16lf, 161-63,164,165-66,27ІП.39 negative trends, 1960-1980,126 population decline, World War II and Stalin deaths, 156-57,289ՈՈ.31-32 population structure, 162/, 163-64,164/ poverty, 99,128-29,136,173-75,174/ public health reforms and health promotion, 165-67 tobacco consumption, 155-57,161-62,165
306 INDEX demographic trends, 155-80 brain drain, 168-70,169/, 170/ demographic decline and recovery, 156-70, 158-64nnf-f education, skills matches, and new global economy, 158/, 175-79 Human Development Index, 157-58,158/ immigration and emigration, 167/, 167-68, 168/, 169/ inequality and frustration, 170-75,172-73nnff, 254,30ІП.64 life expectancy, 14,126,155-56,157,158/, 158-66,159/, 160/, 173-74,236,27ІП.39 problems, policy responses to, 165-67 development spending, 149,150/ disinformation, 225-30 Baltics, 40 cyber warriors, 227 Europe, 84-85 HIV/AIDS origin, 225-27,296n.38 Pizzagate and Hillary Clinton, 227 distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, 227-28 domestic determinants, ofpower, 235-67. See ako power, state, and its domestic determinants Duma, 22-24,250-51,254,255,257-58,259 Dunford, Joseph, 185-86 Duvall, Raymond, 16 Eastern Europe, 73-74,135. See also specific countries map, 37/ NATO expansion, 18-19,20,42-43,73-77, 79-80,240-41,242 economic and security associations, regional, 63-67 economic and trade policy, 69-70 economy, 119-53. See ako gas prices and revenues; oil prices and revenue; specific topics agriculture, 124-25,135,139-40,144—46,145/ decline, 120,121-22,123-28,130/ 130-31 diversification, 119-20,133-34,140-43 economic and financial means, 119-20 foreign reserves, 138, 139/ global, new, 175-79 Gorbachev and, 123-25,126-28 growth, 119-20,121-24,129/, 129,130-37, 131/, 134/, 139-40,144-47,148,149-51 internal investment, 122 patent grants and development spending, 149,150/ post-communist period, immediate, 121 privatization,
6-7,128-29,135,147,158-59, 172-73,175,250,254,286n.65 research and development spending, 148-49,149/ resource revenue dependence, 4,8-9,119 trade organization memberships, 120-21 wealth and New Russians, 120 economy, 1992-2019,6,120 2000s, early, 121-22 balance sheet, Russian, 128-34,129-34nnf-f crises, major, 129 mineral revenues, 133 personal income tax and value-added tax, 132-33 recovery, factors, 132-33 shock therapy and price liberalization, 128-29 starting point, 123-28 economy, contemporary, 134-52 classification and improvements, 13-14 complexity, 143J, 143-46,144/ diversification, export growth and, 139-40 diversification, innovation and, 140-43 export structure change, 144-46,145/ external debt-to-GNI ratio, 138-39,139f foreign direct investment, inward, 141/, 141-42 foreign investment, into and out of, 142/, 142-43 foreign reserve, 138,139/ innovation, 121-22,146-49,284n.4 innovation, financing challenges, 148,287n.72 labor productivity, 13-14 living at/below subsistence minimum, 136-37,137/ National Welfare Fund and National Reserve Fund, 137-38,138/ resource extraction, 13-14 Russia 2020,140-41 stability, 149-52 structure, evolving, 135-40 unemployment, 136/, 136,153,158-59 education, 158/, 174/, 175-79,176/ Egypt, 87, 88-89,99-101 nuclear power plant, 99-100 Putin travels, 89 election interference, 2016 U.S., 3,12-13,19,26, 105-6,217,226-27,229-30,245,260-61, 263,297Ո.Տ1 emigration, 167,168-70,169/ energy, 69-70. See aho gas; oil disruptions, 37-38,45-46,50,53-54,80-82, 227-28,273n.9 Europe, 80-83 policy and strategy, 69-70,134-35 resources, 119-20,135 (see
ako gas; oil; specific regions and topics) engineers, 175-76,290n.45 Erdoğan, Recept Tayyip, 95-96,97 Estonia, 36-40,37/, 277n.8. See ako Baltic States history, Soviet and pre-Soviet, 34,273n.6 migrant worker remittances to, 56t NATO membership, 36-37
INDEX population, land area, and GDP, 34,35r Eurasia map, 37ƒ Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), 65-66, 276Ո.83 Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), 36-37,39-40, 52,55-58,65-67,109-10,219 Eurasianism, 21 Euro-Maidan, 47,55-57,242 Europe. See also specific countries democracy, drifts away, 85-86 disinformation wars, 84-85 investment in Russia, 79-80,141/ 141-42 military exercises, western borders, 77 missiles and nuclear forces, 77-78 NATO expansion, Eastern Europe, 18-19,20, 42-43,73-77,79-80,240-41,242 politicians, alliances, 83-84 politicians, illiberal, Russian support, 84-85 trade and sanctions, 78-79 unanimity, 78 vulnerability, economic, 78 vulnerability, energy sector, 80-83 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), 147,286n.6S European Union, 73-109. See also specific countries and topics membership, accession to, 44-45,47-48, 54, 55-57,73,75,76-77,97,242, 259-60,261 Russian relations, 73-86 exports, 6-7. See aho specific types to China, raw materials, 106-7 to EU, 78,80 facemasks, Covid-19,221-22 growth, 139-40 metals, precious, 13-14 structure change, 144-46,145/ external debt-to-GNI ratio, 138-39,139/ BRICS, 138-39,139/ FancyBear, 229-30 Federation Council, 251 fertility rate, 155-56,162/, 162-63,164,167 Fish, Steven, 246-47 foreign aid, inward, Soviet Union collapse, 6,7 foreign aid, outward, 221-22 Belarus, 53-54 Central Asia, 58-59 Eurasian Economic Union, 66 facemasks, Covid֊19,221-22 India, 112 natural disasters, 216-17 as soft power, 217-18 Sub-Saharan Africa, 103-4,105-6 Tajikistan, 61-62 foreign direct investment (FDI), 8,10,13-14, 141/,
141-43,142/ foreign policy, 18-19 307 authoritarianism legacy on, 22,272n.56 domestic levers on, 18-25,25/ grand strategy, 5,69-71, 76-77, 79-80,83,246 patronalism on, 256-62 foreign reserves, 138,139/ France air forces, 202t gas exports to, 81-82 gross domestic product, 133,142-44 investments in Russia, 79-80,141-42 land-based combat capabilities, 195,1951 Macron, Emmanuel, 84,223,229 military expenditures, 190-91,191/, 192-94,193/ military personnel, 195r Mistral contract, 197 nuclear weapons, 205-7,206t Russian cyberwarfare, 229 sea forces, 198r G-8 nations admission, 7 Gaddafi, Muammar, 9-10,88,99-100, 101,247-48 Gaidar, Yegor, 6-7,124,125 gas global significance, 235-36 Iran sanctions, assistance, 91-92 Iraq, 94 Kyrgyzstan, 61-62 Syria, 93-94 gas exports, 13-14,20 1995-2016,143-44,144/ to Baltics, 37-38,39 to Belarus, 52-53 to BRICs, 144/ to Caucasus, 54-55,57-58 to Central Asia, 59 to China, 111, 144/ to Europe, 80-82 to France, 81-82 to Georgia, 43 to Germany, 80-82,84-85 to Hungary, 80-83 to India, 113 to Kyrgyzstan, 61-62 to Moldova, 49,50 revenues and economy, 20 to Tajikistan, 61-62 to Turkey, 82-83,95 to Turkmenistan, 62 to Ukraine, 45-46,47 to Uzbekistan, 62 gas prices and revenues, 7-8,11-12 decline, 2008,8-9 on economy, 7-8,13-14,119-20,133 on policy making, 20
308 INDEX gas reserves, exploration, and development, 243-44 Arctic, 102,199-200 on economy, 135 Libya, 100-1 Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, 102-3 Sub-Saharan Africa, 103-5 Gazprom assets transfer, to Putin and cronies, 149-51 Baltics, 39 Caucasus, 54-55 control, Putins inner circle, 253 Germany, 81-82 in gross domestic product, 147-48 Iraq, 94 Saudi Arabia, 102 Tajikistan, 61-62 Turkey, 82-83 Ukraine, 45-46,53 geographic domain, 16-17,18-19,24,32-33 geographic domain and policy scope ofpower, 3168,70,71-72. See aho specific regions autocratic post-Soviet states, 51-63 (see abo specific states) background, 31-33 Baltics, 36-40,37/ Belarus, 51-54 Caucasus, 54-58 Central Asia, 58-63 Eastern Europe and Eurasia, map, 37ƒ economic and security associations, regional, 63-67 geography, 32-33 Georgia, 40-43 liberalizing states, 36-51 (see also specific states) migrant worker remittances, to former Soviet states, 56r Moldova, 49-51 revival, in its neighborhood, 33-36 Russia vs. other former Soviet states, 35r Ukraine, 43-49 geography, 32-33 geopolitics, 32-33,32n.3,235,239-40,273n.5 Georgia, 54-58 migrant worker remittances to, 56r military force against, 2008,12 population, land area, and GDP, 34,35r Rose Revolution, 7,40-41 Russian relations with, 41,43 war, 183-84 war against, 41-43 Gerasimov, Valery, 83 Gerasimov doctrine, 83,230-31 Germany cyberwarfare, 229 cyberwarfare against, 229 economic complexity, 143/, 143 education spending, 175-76,176/, 177-78 election hacking, 84-85 fascist, Soviet defeat, 259-60 geopolitics, 74 Hitler and World War II, 240 investments in Russia,
79-80,141-42,242-43 military expenditures, 190-92,191/, 198r Nord Stream II, 81-82 oil and gas exports to and pipeline, 80-82, 84-85 RT propaganda, 224 Russian Empire wars with, 74 Syrian Constitutional Commission, 93-94 Weimar Russia, 242,263 Giles, Keir, 227 Gini coefficients, 171,172/ global economy, new, 175-79 global influence, 69-109. See aho specific regions and topics communism collapse, 72 economic and trade policy, 69-70 energy, 69-70 (see also gas exports; oil exports; pipelines) Europe, 73-109 geographic domain, 70 Latin America, 106-9 Middle East and North Africa, 86-103 (see aho Middle East and North Africa (MENA)) military and political bulwark, 69-70 policy areas, key, 69-70 satellites and communist regimes, 1980, 71-72 South Asia, 110,112-14 sub-Saharan Africa, 103-6 Gorbachev, Mikhail Afghanistan withdrawal, 182-83 arms redaction agreements, US., 7,207, 242,266 Baltics putsch against, 36-37 Cold War defeat, Wests reaction, 20 communism-capitalism clash, end of, 70 communism collapse, response, 72 economic reforms, 125 General Secretary, CPSU, 33-34 GulfWar, first, 270n.20 Israel relations, reestablishing, 88-89 NATO promise, to not expand eastward, 74 perestroika, 100 price increases and shortages, 126-28 reforms, 6 Soviet Union collapse and economy, 123-25 grand strategy, 5,69-71,76-77,79-80,83,246 great power status, 62 Greene, Samuel, 247-48,257,258-59 gross domestic product (GDP), 3-4,35t, 120. See also specific regions 1991-1997, growth, 147-48
INDEX 1992-2019,129/, 129-32,130/, 131/ 1992-2019, Putins projections, 133 2014, reclassification, 13-14 Gazprom in, 147-48 per capita, at purchasing power parity, 3-4,1314,35r, 120,27ІП.37 Gross National Income (GNI), 158/ 1992-2019,131-32 external debt-to-GNI ratio, 138-39,139f Group of 8 (G-8), 7,237-38,242-43 Gulf states, 101-3 Gusinsky, Vladimir, 149-51,250,251-52 Gvosdev, Nikolas, 26 Haftar, General Khalifa, 100-1 Hale, Henry, 247,272n.53 hard power, 77,181-215,235-36 air combat capabilities, 201-4,202r comparative, defense spending, 186-94, 187֊93nnf֊f comparative, nuclear weapons, 205-14, 206t,210r comparative, nuclear weapons, upgraded and new systems, 181-82,211-14,213r conventional capabilities, 194-205 land-based combat capabilities, 195-96,195t military personnel, 194,195r naval capabilities, 197-201,198t New Look military reform, 184-86,187-89, 194,197,201-3,204,209,232 readiness, 204-5 S-300 missile defense system, 91,92,93,199200,203,213r, 214 S-400 missile defense system, 86, 93, 96-97, 102, 110, 113, 199-200, 203, 213r, 214 healthcare, 104-5,126,155-57,161,165,166, 170-71,173-74,189,236 health promotion, 165-67 heroin addiction, 58-60 Herzog, Stephen, 39-40 HIV/AIDS epidemic, 59-60,158-59 disinformation campaign, 225-27,296n.38 human development, 14 Human Development Index (HDI), 157-58,158/ Hungary economic influence, Russian, 78-79 far-right governments, 2010,73-74 gas and pipelines, 80-83 gross domestic product per capita, 13-14 investments in, Russian, 79 Kovács, Béla, 83 Ufe expectancy, 14 market institutions and neoUberal economic reforms, 73 NATO,
74-75 309 Orbán, Viktor, 79, 85,225 Warsaw Pact, 71-72 Hussain, Saddam, 88,94-95 hybrid warfare, 83,230-32 immigration, 167-68,168/ imports, to Russia food and grain, 124-25 from Moldova, blocked, 50 oil payments for, 126 from Ukraine, blocked, 46-47 income inequality, frustration and, 170-75,17273nnf-f, 2S4,30ІП.64 tax, personal, 132-33 India, 110,112-14 inequahty, frustration and, 170-75,172-73nnf-f, 254,30ІП.64 infant mortality, 165,173-74 influence, spheres of. See also global influence; specific topics international politic, 3-4 information wars, 225-30 INF Treaty, 77-78,207,213-14 International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt, 7-8 support, early 1990s, 6 international political affairs influence, 3-4 Russia as Soviet Unions successor, 6 internet access, denying, 227-28 Baltics, disrupting, 40 deep-sea cables, 12 disinformation campaigns, 223,227 penetration and usage, 178-79 pro-Kremlin bloggers, 261-62 Internet Research Agency (IRA), 105-6, 229-30,260-61 investment, internal, 122 investment, Russian inward, 140-42,141/ China, 135,141/, 143 corruption on, 119-20 Ease of Doing Business on, 134-35 on economy, 142/, 142-43 Europe, 79-80,141/, 141-42 foreign direct investment, 8,10,13-14,141/, 141-43,142/ France, 79-80,141-42 Germany, 79-80,141-42,242-43 India, 113-14 labor costs on, 13-14,146 sanctions on, 13-14 United Kingdom, 79-80,141-42 United States, 242-43 U.S. companies, 243 weak rule oflaw and enforcement on, 148,151-52
310 investment, Russian outward, 142/, 142-43 Bulgaria, 79 Central Asia, 62 China, 63,91,132-33 Cuba, 106-7 on economy, 142/, 142-43 Europe, 79-80 foreign direct investment, 142f 142-43 in Hungary, 79 in other countries, 142{ 142-43 Sub-Saharan Africa, 104-5 Iran, 87,88-92 al-Assad, Bashar and, 24,90,95-96,101-2, 185-86,190-91,235-36 Iraq and, 89-90 Israel and, 98 nuclear power plant, 99-100 Putin travels, 89 S-300 missile defense system, 91,279n.58 sanctions, 9,91-92,279n.60 Saudi Arabia and, 101-2 Syria and, 89-91 Iraq, 87-88,94-95 anti-Soviet alliance, U.S., 88 Gazprom, 94 Hussain, Saddam, 88,94-95 Iran and, 89-90 Turkey and, 94 U.S. coalition war, 94-95 Israel, 87-89, 97-99 Iran and, 98 Iraq and, 94 Netanhayu, 98 Syria and, 97-98 Ivanov, Igor, 89-90 Japan aging population, 163-64 Association of South East Asian Nations, 112-13 empire, 239 high-tech civilian commodities, 132-33 military expenditures, 193/ retail sector, 127-28 size vs. influence, 33 Joint Comprehensive Plan ofAction (JCPOA), 91-92,242-43 Karimov, Islam, 60,61,64 Karshi-Khanabad (K2) airbase, 60-61 Katz, Mark, 98 Kazakhstan, 61,62-63. See also Central Asia China trade, 62 Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 economic and security associations, 64-67 INDEX Eurasian Economic Union, 46,52 grain, 62-63 history, pre-Soviet, 34 immigrants to Russia, 168/, 168 migrant worker remittances to, 56f as nation-states, independent, 34 nuclear weapons, Soviet, 205 population, land area, and GDP, 34,351 Russian diaspora in, 58-59,63 stability and Russian security,
58-59,61 Khodorkovsky, Mikhail, 135,149-51,251-52 Khrushchev, Nikita, 22-23,44,70,71-72,123-24 kleptocracy, 22,60,121,253 Kofman, Michael, 191-92 Kosovo, 73,74,266,270n.29,277n.l0 Kotkin, Stephen, 239 Kovács, Béla, 83 Kuchma, Leonid, 45 Kyrgyzstan, 9-10,59-63. See aho Central Asia Bakiyev s toppling, 9-10 Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 color revolution, 41 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 economic and security associations, 64—67 Eurasian Economic Union, 46, 52 history, pre-Soviet, 34 immigrants to Russia, 168/, 168 migrant worker remittances to, 55-57,56f population, land area, and GDP, 34,35t soft power, 219 land-based combat capabilities, 195-96,195f Latin America, 106-9 GDP, population, and land area, 35r revolution promotion, 70 Latvia, 36-40,37/, 277n.8. See aho Baltic States Bolsheviks, 273n.6 history, pre-Soviet, 34 migrant worker remittances to, 56f NATO membership, 36-37 population, land area, and GDP, 34,35f law, rule of, 148,151-52,152ƒ Lebedena, Irina, 254 Legvold, Robert, 245,272n.S6 Lenin, Vladimir, 120-21 Le Pen, Marin, 84,229 liberalizing states, 36-51. See aho specific states Libya, 87,88,99-101,105-6,235-36,240-41, 247-48,260-61 Gaddafi, Muammar, 9-Ю, 88,99-100, 101,247-48 life expectancy, 14,126,155-56,157,158/, 15866,159/, 160/, 173-74,236,27ІП.39 men vs. women, Russia, 158-S9,159/, 160-61 Russia vs. other countries, 159-60,160/ Lipset, Seymour Martin, 249
INDEX Lipton, David, 126-27 Lithuania, 36-40,37/, 277n.8. See also Baltic States Bolsheviks, 273Ո.6 migrant worker remittances to, 56f NATO membership, 36-37 population, land area, and GDP, 34,35t Lo, Bobo, 26,239 loans-for-shares, 128-29 Ludwig, Jessica, 217 Lukoil, 94,104-5,147-48,204-5 Macron, Emmanuel, 84,223,229 Manas airbase, 60-61 Mandatory Health Insurance (MHI), 165 Marsh, Christopher, 26 Marxism-Leninism, 33,70-71,73-74,217-18 McFaul, Michael, 257,260,279n.58 Mead, Walter Russell, 245,257 Mearsheimer, John, 15,20,238-39 media. See also cyberattacks disinformation, 84-85 (see aho disinformation; propaganda) independent, 85 influence, other countries, 83,219-20,223 RT (Russia Today), 40, 84-85,105,223-25, 227,229 Russian language, cultural dominance, 63 social, 217,225-29 as soft power, 86 as soft/sharp power hybrid, 217 Sputnik News, 84-85,105,106,223-25, 227,229 Medvedev, Dmitri arms exports, 91 country home, 170-71 development goals, 140-41 end ofpresidency, 177 innovation and technology leaders, 177-78 Libya, 100 public health reforms, 165 Putin and, 75-76,255,257-58 reset, Obama administration and, 9-11,243-44 revival, 40-42 Ukraine, 262 Merkel, Angela, 229 Middle East Putin travels, 89 revolution promotion, 70 Middle East and North Africa (MENA), 86-103. See ako specific countries Egypt and Libya, 99-101 historical background, 86-89 Iran, 89-92 Iraq, 94-95 Israel, 97-99 monarchies, 88 Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, 101-3 311 Syria, 92-94 trade and security relationships, 87 Turkey, 95-97 migrant workers remittances home, 55,56f Migranyan, Andranik, 221
migration out of Russia, 167-68,169ЈЈ 170J, 170-75 perceptions on, 169-70 into Russia, 167-68,168/ military, 235-36. See also hard power; specific countries and types; specific topics doctrine, 10-11,181-82,270Ո.24 NATO, 77-78,182,195-96,203,207,214, 244,266 personnel, 194,195Ѓ reform, New Look, 184-86,187-89,194,197, 201-3,204,209,232 structure, 184-85 military capabilities, conventional, 194-205 air combat, 201-4,202r land-based combat, 195-96,195t military personnel, 194,19ЅЃ naval, 197-201,198f readiness, 204—S military industrial complex, 191-92,292Ո.31 Milov, Vladimir, 149-51 minerals, precious revenues, 133 Sub-Saharan Africa, 103-5 missiles, 77-78 air and surface-to-air, 201-3,202i anti-tank, 196 new and modernized, 181-82,186,192 nuclear, 205-7,206f, 209-14,210t number, 205 submarine, 197-201,198f missiles and missile-defense systems exports. See aho weapons exports China, 110 ban, 91,92,279Ո.58 Iraq, 94-95 Latin America, 107 S-300 missile defense system, 91,279n.58 Saudi Arabia, 92,94,113 Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, 102 Sub-Saharan Africa, 105 Turkey, 94,96-97 modernization theory, 249 Moldova, 49-51 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 migrant worker remittances to, 56r population, land area, and GDP, 34,35f Transdniestria conflict, 12,49-50 Morgenthau, Hans, 15 mortality rate, 155-56,161/, 161-63,164,16566,27ІП.39 Munich Conference, 75-76
312 INDEX Nabiullina, Elvira, 140-41 Nabucco pipeline, 82-83 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, 12,57-58,275n.62 nationalism, 21,86 National Reserve Fund, 122,134-35, 137-38,138/ National Wealth (Welfare) Fund, 122,134-35, 136-38,138/ NATO. See North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) NATO-Russia Council, 75 NATO-Russia Founding Act, 75 naval capabilities, 197-201,198t Navalny, Alexei, 170-71 Nazarbayev, Nursultan, 58-59 Nemtsov, Boris, 149-51 Netanhayu, Benjamin, 98 New Look military reform, 184-86,187-89,194, 197,201-3,204,209,232 New START, 9,205-7,209,242-43 NGOs, 85,249,258 Nichiporuk, Brian, 208-9 Niyazov, Saparmurat, 62 Nord Stream, 81-82 Nord Stream II, 81-82,83 North Africa, revolution promotion, 70 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) 2000s, early, relations, 10-11,12-13 autocratic post-Soviet states, 51 Baltic States, 36-37,38,39-40 Central Asia, 61 expansion, Eastern Europe, 18-19,20,42-43, 73-77,79-80,239-41,242 Georgia, 41,42-43 joining, prevention from, 67-68 military, 77-78,182,195-96,203,207,214, 244,266 Moldova, 49,50-51 Putins return on, 10-11 Russia’s complaints, 5 as threat, 36-37 Ukraine, 10,24,31-32,48-49 Northern Distribution Network (NDN), 9 NovoRossiia, 48 nuclear arms reduction treaty, 7 INF Treaty, 77-78,207,213-14 New START, 9,205-7,209,242-43 nuclear weapons, 205-14,206f, 210t deterrence, 12-13,77-78,208,231,2707ІП.31,278Ո.22,293n.79 doctrine, 12-13,205-11,206t, 270-7ІП.31 upgrades and new systems, 181-82, 211-14,213f Nye, Joseph, 216-17,218-19 Obama, Barack, 9,34,61,69, 72, 92-93,242-43 oil. See also energy countries’ dependence and Russian
power, 16-17,18 economy, 119-23 global significance, 235-36 Iran, 91-92 Iraq, 94-95 Saudi Arabia, 102-3 Syrian, 93-94 oil exports 1995-2016,143-44,144/ to Baltics, 37-38,273n,9 to Belarus, 52-54 to BRICS, 144/ to Caucasus, 57 to Central Asia, 59 to China, 111, 144/ disruptions, politically motivated, 37-38,4546,50,53-54,80-82,227-28,273n.9 on economy, 13-14,20 to Europe, 80-82 to Germany, 80-82,84-85 to India, 112 modern era, 135-38 to Poland, 80-82 Soviet Union collapse, import revenue, 126 to Turkey, 95 oil prices and revenues, 20,119-20 1992-2019,133,134/ 2000s early boom, 131-32 2008 decline, 8-9,124-25,129 on economy, 7-9,11-12,13-14,20,119-25, 126,129,131-32,133-34,134/, 250,252 policies and reserve funds, 121-22,134-3S, 137-38,138/ on policy making, 20 rise, global, 7-8 Saudi Arabia, pricing strategies, 101-2 Soviet Union collapse, 123-25 oil reserves, exploration, and development, 243-44 Arctic, 199-200 Brazil, 106-7 Libya, 100-1 Sub-Saharan Africa, 103-5 Venezuela, 108 oligarchs, 46,86,119,128-29,135,149-51,171, 250,251-52,253 Oliker, Olga, 208-9 Olympics, Sochi, 11-12,24,25/, 222-23,296n.26 Orange Revolution (Ukraine), 7,10,44—46, 47,262-63 Orbán, Viktor, 79,85,225 Orenstein, Mitchefl, 79 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 13-14,126, 131,135,136,139-40,147-48,173, 175-76,237-38
INDEX P5+1 group, 91 pacification of masses, 23 patent grants, 149,150/ patronalism, 28,58-59,105-6,149-51,179-80, 237,246,247,249,252,266,267,272n.53, 301-2Ո.87 on domestic and foreign policy, 256-62 enrichment and regime stability, 252-56 regime politics, 246-48 Pavlovsky, Gleb, 262 personal income tax, 132-33 personnel, military, 194, 1951 phishing attacks, 228-29 Pierre, Marie, 92-93 pipelines Central Asia, 59 control over, 235-36 disruptions and slowdowns via, 80-81 Iran and Iraq, 91-92 Iran-Armenia, ArmRosGazprom 54-55 Kirkuk-Ceyhan, 94 Latvia and Lithuania, 37-38 Nabucco, 82-83 Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan-Armenia, 55,57 Nigeria, 104-5 Nord Stream, 81-82 Nord Stream II, 81-82, 83 Power of Siberia, 111 Russian Eastern-Siberian Pacific Ocean, 111 Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, 102-3 South Stream, 82-83 Soviet Druzhba (or Friendship), 80-81 Poland democracy decline, 85-86 far-right government, 2010,73-74 gross domestic product, 13-14 market institutions and neoliberal economic reforms, 73 missile defense systems, 240-41 mortality rate, 161-62 NATO, joining, 74-75 NATO forces in, 77-78,244 pipeline, oil refineries, and energy dependence, 80-82 post-communism, 73 Warsaw Pact, 71-72,74 Western sanctions on Russia, 78-79 policy key areas, 69-70 scope, 16-17,18,31-33,67 politics bulwark, 69-70 geopolitics, 32-33,32n.3,235, 239-40,273Ո.5 international, influence, 3-4,6 population, 3-4,15,130-31,236,237. See also demographics; specific states and countries brain drain, 168-70,169/ demographic decline and recovery, 156-70 growth, 125,126,155-56 immigration and emigration,
167/, 167-68,168/ land area and, 35-36,351 structure (pyramid), 163/ 163-64,164/ Poroshenko, Petro, 48-49,261 poverty, 99,128-29,136,173-75,174/ power dimensions, multiple, 4,15-18,17/ geographic domain, 16-17 great, Russia as, 18 means, 15,17 policy scope, 16-17 relational, 16-17 theory, 15-16 power, state, and its domestic determinants, 235-67 patronalism, for enrichment and regime stability, 252-56 patronalism, on domestic and foreign policy, 256-62 patronalism, regime politics, 246-48 power and its purposes, 237-38 purposes, autocracy tightening, 248-52 regime type, power, 262-65 Russia on offense ?, 244-46 strong hand and will to use it, 265-67 West on offense, Russia on defense, 238-44 price liberalization, 1992-2019,128-29 Prigozhin, Yevgeny, 63,93,101,105-6, 229-30,260-61 privatization, 6-7,128-29,135,147,158-59, 172-73,175, 250,254,286n.65, propaganda, 216-17,222,223,225. See aho disinformation; media; soft power RT (Russia Today), 40,84-85,105,223-25, 227,229 Sputnik News, 84-85,105,106,223-25, 227,229 protests, 23-24 Georgia, 41 inequality and corruption, 170-71, 173, 264 Moldova, 49 Moscow, 2011,23-24 Putins return, 2012,249,257-58,259 social benefits reform, 248 Ukraine, 24,45,47,241,259-60,264 Ukraine, 2013,24 public health reforms, 165-67 public opinion, 247-48,258-59 Purushothaman, Roopa, 7-8 Pussy Riot, 258-59 313
314 INDEX Putin, Vladimir approval ratings, 24,25/ on Medvedev s reset and NATO relations, 10-11 resurgence under, 11-14 Russian presidency, motivations for reassuming, 9-10 reactive argument, 20 readiness, military, 204-5 realism, 18-19 realpolitik, 237,240,244,245,246,265 regime type, 262-65 research and development spending, 148-49,149/ Reserve Fund, National, 122,134-35, 137-38,138/ reset, 9-11,76,242-43 resource revenue dependence, 4,8-9,119 resurgence, under Putin, 11-14 revival, 33-36 Revolution of Dignity, 47,55-57,242 Robertson, Graeme, 247-48,257,258-59 RosAtom (Russia Atomic Energy Agency), 99-100,104-5 Rose Revolution (Georgia), 7,40-41 Rosneft, 10,83,94,102,106-7,108,113,136-37, 142-43,147-48,243-44,253 Rotenberg, Arkady, 47-48,63 Rotenberg, Boris, 63 RT (Russia Today), 40,84-85,105,223-25, 227,229 Russia. See also specific topics as disrupter, 4,19 geography, 34-35,35r (see aho geographic domain) vs. other former Soviet states, 35t population, land area, and GDP, 34-35,35r Russia 2020,140-41 Russian Central Bank, 126-27,134-35, 137-38,140-41 Russian Eastem-Siberian Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline, 111 Russian-Georgian War, 2008,9-Ю, 41-42,61 Russian Military Doctrine, 2014,10-11 Russian Orthodox Church, 21,38,220,258-59 Russian World (Russkii Mir), 21,38 S-300 missile defense system, 91,92,93,199-200, 203,213r, 214,279Ո.58 S-400 missile defense system, 86,93,96-97,102, 110,113,199-200,203,213r, 214 Saakashvili, Mikhail, 41-42,43,273n.23 Sachs, Jeffrey, 126-27 sanctions, Russian, 253 on Belarus, 52 on Turkey, 95-96 on Ukraine, 47,109 sanctions, UN on Iran,
9,91-92,279n.60 on Iraq, 94-95 on Libya, 9-10,100 sanctions, U. S. on Arctic oil explorations, 113 on Venezuela, 66,78-80,81-82,91-92,102, 104-5,108-9 sanctions on Russia, EU and U.S., 8-9,13-14, 66,260-61 defense spending in spite of, 186-87 on economy, 120,121-22,129,141-42,143, 144-46,152,153,235-36 Orbán efforts, 225 Putin on, 182 on trade/relations with other countries, 78-80, 81-82,91-92,102,104-5,114 Trump violation, 221-22 Sarkozy, Nicolas, 42-43 satellites and communist regimes, 1980,71-72 Saudi Arabia, 101-3 anti-Islamist military operation, Libya, 100-1 anti-Soviet alliance, U.S., 88 Gazprom, 102 Iran relations, 89-90,101-2 military expenditures, 193/ military supplies (S-400s), 92,94,113 oil exports, 111, 135 oil price protections, abandoning, 124 trade, diplomatic, and security relationships, 87, 89,235-36 Savisaar, Edgar, 39 Sberbank, 147-48 Scherr, James, 236 security border, 51,58-60,61-62 China, 109-11 Collective Security Treaty Organization, 57-58, 61,64-66,112-13,219,275Ո.61 Kazakhstan, 58-59,61,64-67 Kyrgyzstan, 64-67 Middle East and North Africa, 87 regime, 69-70 regional associations, 63-67 Saudi Arabia, 87,89,235-36 Turkmenistan, 64 UN Security Council, 108-9,111-12 Uzbekistan, 64-65 Yeltsin, 266 Security Service (FSB), 22-23 Segal, Jakob, 225-26 Serbia Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 color revolution, 240-41 democracy, 73
INDEX freedom, decline, 86 oil dependence, 81-83 pan-Slavism and culture promotion, 220 sharp power, 225-30 cyber warriors, 227 definition and examples, 217 distributed denial of service attacks, 227-28 Fancy Bear, 229-30 HIV/AIDS story, 225-27,296n.38 hybrid tactics, 230-32 phishing attacks, 228-29 Pizzagate and Hillary Clinton, 227 U.S. presidential elections (2016), 217,226-27, 229-30,297Ո.51 Shevardnadze, Eduard, 40-41 Shleifer, Andrei, 7-8,147 shock therapy, 1992-2019,128-29 Silitski, Vitali, 52 Sisi, General Abdel Fattali, 100-1 skills, 176,179. See aho education Škirpai, Sergei, 222-23 Skolkovo, 140,148,177-78,220,243 smoking, 155-57,161-62,165 Sochi Olympics, 11-12,24,25/, 222-23,296n.26 soft power, 17,70-71,86,186,216-25 definition, 216-17 geographic domain, 221-22 hybrid tactics, 230-32 media, RT, and Sputnik, 223-25 Nye, definition and conceptualization, 216-17,218-19 policy and tools, 219-21 Sochi Olympics and World Cup, 222-23, 290Ո.26 Soviet legacy, 217-25 use, 216-17 South Asia, 110,112-14 South Ossetia, 9-Ю, 41-43,48-49,53-54 South Stream pipeline, 82-83 Soviet Union collapse, 5-6,123-28 historical legacy, 6,25,34,63,135,139-40, 147-48,175,179,217-25 (see aho specific topics) survival, predictions pre-collapse, 269n.7 SputnikNews, 84-85,105,106,223-25,227,229 START Treaty, 9 state power and its domestic determinants, v-28 foreign policy, domestic levers on, 18-25,25ƒ gross domestic product, 3-4 international politics, influence, 3-4 population, 3-4 power, multiple dimensions, 4,15-18 resurgence, Putins, 3,11-14 revival, extent, 5-11 STEM education,
175-76,177-78,178/ 179 Stent, Angela, 7,26,70,76 315 Sub-Saharan Africa, 103-6 suicide, 158-59 Syria, 92-94 2015 troop deployment, 12,21,71 influence over, 24 Iran and, 89-91 Israel and, 97-98 Israel attack (1973), 88 military effort and influence, 100-2,103-4, 168,185-87,190-91,201,203,204,23S-36, 240-41,260-61,262 tensions with U.S. over, 12-13 trade and security relations, 87 Turkey and, 95-97 Tajikistan, 59-60,61-63. See aho Central Asia Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 Gazprom, 61-62 history, pre-Soviet, 34 immigrants to Russia, 168/ 168 migrant worker remittances to, 55, S6t population, land area, and GDP, 34,35r tanks, 26-27,107-8,113,186,195-96,195r, 231 Taylor, Brian, 254 terrorism, 7,61,76, 89-90,98,110,112-13,219, 242,243 tobacco consumption, 155-57,161-62,165 trade. See also specific commodities Africa, 105 Arctic routes, 109-10 China, 109-11 Europe, 78-79 India, 113-14 Middle East and North Africa, 87 policy, 69-70 sanctions on, 78-80, 81-82,91-92,102, 104-5,114 Saudi Arabia, 87, 89,235-36 Yeltsin, 6-7,242 trade organization memberships, 120-21 Transdniestria conflict (Moldova), 12,49-50 Treisman, Daniel, 7-8,257 Trenin, Dmitri, 26,42-43,54,88 Trudeau, Pierre, 256-57 Trump, Donald, 48-49 Tunisia, 87,99,240-41,263 Turkey, 87,88,89,95-97 anti-Soviet alliance with U.S., 88 Erdoğan, Recept Tayyip, 95-96,97 Gazprom, 82-83 Iraq and, 94 migrant worker remittances to, 561 military supplies (S-400s), 94 Putin travels, 89 Syria and, 95-97
316 INDEX Turkmenistan, 62,63. See aho Central Asia economic and security associations, 64 gas and Nabucco pipeline, 82 history, pre-Soviet, 34 immigrants to Russia from, 78 population, land area, and GDP, 34,35i TurkStream, 82-83,95 Tymoshenko, Yuha, 46 Ukraine, 43-49. See aho Crimea EU membership, public opinion on, 48-49, 274Ո.36 Euro-Maidan, 47,55-57,242 Gazprom, 45-46,53 invasion, 2014,12,13,20,21 Kuchma, Leonid, 45 migrant worker remittances to, S6t NATO, 10,24 Orange Revolution, 7,10,44-46,47,262-63 population, land area, and GDP, 34,35i protests, 23-24,45,47,241,259-60,264 U.S. relations, 12-13 Yanukovych, Victor, 10,24,44-45,46-47,6566,257,259-60,264 unemployment rates, I36f, 136,153,157-59 United Kingdom, 79-80,141-42 air forces, 202í investments in Russia, 79-80,141-42 land-based combat capabilities, 195,195i military expenditures, 190-91,191/, 192-94,193/ nuclear weapons, 205-7,206i relations, 133 sea forces, 198f United Nations (UN) Crimea seizure resolution, 113 Syrian Constitutional Commission, 93-94 UN Security Council, 108-9,111-12 United Nations (UN) sanctions on Iran, 9,91-92,279n.60 on Iraq, 94-95 on Libya, 9-Ю, 100 United Russia, 23-24,250-51,257-58 United States (U.S.) Central Asia relations, 58,60-61,64-65 education spending, 161,176/, 176-77 Egypt relations, 99-100 elections interference, 3,12-13,19,26,105-6, 217,226-27,229-30,245,260-61,263, 297Ո.51 engineers, 175-76 geography, 17,32-33 gross domestic product, 3-4,129/ 129-31, 130/, 131/ gross national income, 131-32 Human Development Index, 157 Iraq war, 94-95 life expectancy, 159-60,160/, 162-63
Middle East and North Africa, 87-89 military and defense spending, 187-94,188_^ 190/, 191/, 193/ military and political bulwark against, 69-70 nuclear deterrence, 17-18 nuclear forces, 205-7,206i, 208209211,210t, 212,214 power resources, 4 RT viewers in, 223 Russian emigrants to, 155-56,168,169-70 Russia policy, 42 Russia relations, 7,9-11,12,21,40 Russia relations, Ukraine and Syria, 12-13, 24,92-93 sanctions on Russia (see sanctions on Russia, EU and US.) Saudi Arabia and Gulf states relations, 102-3 Sputnik in, 223-24 Turkey relations, 95-97 Uzbekistan, 9-10, 60-62, 63. See also Central Asia Collective Security Treaty Organization, 61, 64,112-13 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 economic and security associations, 64-65 history, pre-Soviet, 34 migrants to Russia from, 78 migrant worker remittances to, 56t population, land area, and GDP, 34,35i. value-added tax, 132-33 Vanin, Mikhail, 10-11,209 Venezuela, 14,42-43,53-54,107-9,263 VTB Bank, 147-48 Wagner Group, 93,101,105-6,260-61 Walker, Christopher, 217 Walt, Stephan, 15,238,239 Waltz, Ken, 15 Warsaw Pact countries, 71-72,74 wealth inequality, frustration and, 170-75,17273nnf-f, 254, ЗОІп.64 weapons exports, 13-14,102-3,235-36. See aho missiles and missile-defense systems exports Armenia, 57 China, 92,110 Gulf states, 102-3 Iran, 92 Libya, 101 Medvedev, 91 Russian Weapons Export Agency, 99-100 S-300 missile defense system, 91,92,93,199200,203,213f, 214,279Ո.58 S-400 missile defense system, 86,93,96-97, 102,110,113,199-200,203,213t, 214 Saudi Arabia, 92,94,113
INDEX Somalia, 103-4 South Asia, 112-13 Turkey, 94 Venezuela, 108 Welfare Fund, National, 122,134-35, 136-38,138/ Westad, Odd Arne, 71 Wilson, Dominic, 7-8 Winter Olympics, Sochi, 11-12,24,25f 222-23, 317 World Bank, 8,130,131-32 debt, 7-8 support, early 1990s, 6 World Governance Indicators (WGI) corruption, control of, IS If, 151 law, rule of, 148,151-52,152/ World Trade Organization (WTO), 10, 140-41,242-43 World War II historical memory, 239 Nazi Germany, 39-40,259-60 population dechne, 156-57 Russian veterans, 98,220 Soviet army deaths, 156-57,289n.31 Yeltsin, Boris, 158-59,171,182-83 Belarus relations, 52-53 Chechen conflict, 183 Clinton negotiations, 277n.l0 diaspora, treatment abroad, 36-37 domestic and economic politics, 72 economic reforms, 6-7 foreign trade, 6-7 Kosovo conflict, 74,277n.l0 loans-for-shares program, 128-29 NATO, 74-76 opposition, 250-51 presidencies, 21 prime ministers, 132-33,138-39 privatization and inequalities, 254 reforms, 6-7,252 security, Europe and U.S. cooperation, 266 social and political change, 7 special privileges, 251 U.S. cooperation, trade and financial assistance, 242 youth, 169-71,170/, 179-80,264 Yugoslavia, 71-72,73 Yukos, 135,147,251-52 Yushchenko, Viktor, 10,45,46 Yanukovych, Viktor, 10,24,44-45,46-47,65-66, 257,259-60,264 Zelensky, Volodymyr, 48-49,261 Zwack, Peter, 92-93 296Ո.26 : Bayerische į Staatsbibliothek í München J
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CONTENTS Acknowledgments ix List of Figures xiii List of Tables xvii Note on Transliterations xix SECTION I: RUSSIA AND THE DIMENSIONS OF STATE POWER 1. Is Russia Resurrected? з SECTION II: THE GEOGRAPHIC DOMAIN AND POLICY SCOPE OF RUSSIAN POWER 2. Where Does Russia Matter? 31 3. Where (Else) in the World Is Russia? 69 SECTION III: THE MEANS OF RUSSIAN POWER 4. Ihe Unsteady Economic Basis of Russian Power 119 5. Russian Society as Power Resource or Constraint? iss 6. Russian Hard Power ш 7. Russian Soft and Sharp Power Resources VII 216
viii CONTENTS SECTION IV: THE PURPOSES BEHIND RUSSIAN POWER PROJECTION ABROAD 8. The Domestic Determinants of Russia’s Resurrection Notes 269 Index 303 23s
INDEX For the benefit of digital users, indexed terms that span two pages (e.g, 52-53) may, on occasion, appear on only one ofthose pages. References to figures and tables are indicated by an italicƒ and t, respectively. Abkhazia 9-10,41-43,48-49,53-54,61 Afghanistan Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 drug trafficking, 58-60 Islamic extremists and insurgency, 59,62 revolution promotion, 70,101-2 Russian border patrols, 59-60 Soviet war, 88-89,182-83 U.S. involvement, 9,17-18,60,184,187-88, 240-41,242-43 withdrawal, 42-43,182-83 Africa. See aho Middle East and North Africa (MENA); Sub-Saharan Africa China in, 103-5 revolution promotion, 70 trade, 105 agriculture China, 62 European exports, 78-79 Iran exports, 91-92 Latin American exports, 106-7 Moldova, 50 production failures, 123-25,135,139-40, 144-46,145ƒ Turkish exports, 95-96 agriculture exports Europe, 78-79 Iran, 91-92 Latin American, 106-7 Turkey, 95-96 air combat capabilities, 201-4,202i al-Assad, Bashar, 24,88,90,95-96,101-2,18586,190-91,235-36 alcohol abuse and alcoholism, 124,126,156-57, 158-59,165-66 Aleksandr Lukashenko, 52-54 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty, U.S. withdrawal, 7 Arab Spring, 99,240-41,260 Arctic, 5-6,32 exploration, China and, 111-12 leadership and naval presence, 199-200 military and sea access, 113,152,199-200 military bases, 110,199-200 military exercises and readiness, 204-5 oil and gas, 102,197-200,243-44 trade routes, 109-10 Armenia, 54-58. See also Caucasus Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 migrant worker
remittances to, 56r population, land area, and GDP, 34,35ř ArmRosGazprom 54-55 arms control, 205,242,266 agreements, 205,266 New START, 9,205-7,209,242-43 Åslund, Anders, 46,126-27,254 authoritarianism legacy, on foreign policy, 22,272n.56 autocracy, 246-47 patronal regime politics and power, 246-48 tightening, domestic power for, 248-52 autocratic post-Soviet states, 51-63. See aho specific states Azerbaijan, 54-58 migrant worker remittances to, 56t population, land area, and GDP, 34,35t 303
304 INDEX Bagge, Daniel, 231 Bakiyev, Rurmanbek, 9-10,53-54,60,61 Baldwin, David, 4-5,16 Baltic States, 36-40,37/. See aho individual states Bolsheviks, 273n.6 NATO membership, 36-37 banking BRICS Development Bank, 112-13 Russian Central Bank, 126-27,134-35, 137-38,140-41 Soviet Union, 123,284n.6 VTB Bank, 147-48 World Bank, 6,8,130,131-32 Barnett, Michael, 16 Barro, Robert, 146-47 Belarus, 51-54 Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-33 Eurasian Economic Union, 46,52 migrant worker remittances to, S6t population, land area, and GDP, 34,351 Benghazi, 100 Berezovsky, Boris, 149-51,250 Blue Stream, 95 Boghardt, Thomas, 225-26 borders China, 32-33 Russia, 32-33,32n.3,273n.5 security, 51,58-60,61-62 brain drain, 169/, 170/, 170-75 Breedlove, General, 244-45 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), 7-8,104-5,106-7,112-13. See also specific countries deaths, 5 years, 165 doctors per capita vs. preventable infectious disease probability, 166 economic complexity, 143/ external debt-to-GNI ratio, 138-39,139/ foreign reserves, 138,139/ GDP, vs. Russia, 129/, 130-31 GDP per capita, 131/, 131 GDP per capita, vs. Russia, 122-23 Gini coefficient, 172/ health expenditures, 166 Human Development Index ranking, 157 inward foreign direct investment, as percent of GDP, 141/ oil and gas exports, 144ƒ patent grants, 150/ poverty headcount ratio, 174f research and development spending, 149f unemployment rates, 136/ university graduates with STEM degrees, 178/ BRICS Development Bank, 112-13 Bronze Soldier riots, 39-40,273n.9 Bulgaria, Russian investments, 79 bureaucracy,
152-53 corruption, 119-20,121,125-26 Federal Districts, 251 Bush, George H. W., 7,74,207 Bush, George W., 7,10,42,44,76,242 Caucasus, 54-58 Central Asia, 58-63. See also specific countries history, pre-Soviet, 34 Chechnya wars, 183 China, 109-12. See aho BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in Africa, 103-5 economy, 3-4,13-14,80-131,282-83n.l31 falling out, 1991,71-72 foreign investment in, 132-33 geography and borders, 32-33 as great power, 62 gross domestic product, 3-4,129/ 130/, 130-31,131/ investment in Russia, 135,141/ 143 Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, 61,62 labor productivity, 132-33 military, 109-10,182 military, equipment purchases, 92,110 military, spending, 3-4 oil and gas exports to, 111, 144/ patent grants, 150/ population, 3-4,130-31 power, 17,19 research and development spending, 97,149/ Russian relations, 4,5-6,12,19,62-63, 65,109-12 security and trade, 109-11 as Venezuelas banker, 108 wealth, household, 254 Clinton, Bill, 7, 75,242 Kosovo conflict, 74,277n.l0 Yeltsin negotiations, 277n.l0 Clinton, Hillary, 13,227,228-30,257-58 Coats, Dan, 109 Cold War, 266 arms control agreements, 205,266 capitalism vs. communism, 70-72 Cuba, 12-13,106-7 as defeat. West on, 20 demise and end, 5-6,10-11 grievances since, 240,242,245,246 information wars, 225 Middle East, 87-88 nuclear arsenals, 205 Ukraine aggression, 20 Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), 57-58,61,64-66,112-13,219,275n.61 color revolutions, 41,48—49,52,60,223,240—41,262 Orange Revolution, 7,10,44-46,47,262-63 Rose (Georgia), 7,40-41
INDEX Colton, Timothy, 125-26 Comey, James, on election interference, 13 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 51-52,64 communism agenda, 70 vs. capitalism, 70-71 China, 70,71-72 collapse, 3,5-7,21,33,72,124-25,269n.6 collapse, NATO memberships after, 74-75 empire, Soviet, 5-7 expansionism and influence, 70, 87-88,246 inequality, eradication, 80-81 institutions, 34 legacy, 25 politics, 120-21 support, after World War II, 70,73 tenets, central, 127 Connolly, Richard, 191-92 constitution, 47-48,235,250-51,254-55, 257-58,264-65 Conte, Giuseppe, 221-22 Cooley, Alex, 58,61-62,64 coronavirus, 221-22,236 corruption, 7-8,21-22,62,119,257 on economic stability, 149-51,151/ ehtes, 21-22,254,266-67 healthcare, 165 Kuchma government, 45 official, 125-26 pervasive, 23,41 post-communist period, immediate, 121 protests, 170-71,173,264 Skolkovo, 177 Sochi Olympics cost, 222-23 World Bank measures, 134-35 Covid-19,162-63,221-22,236 Crane, Keith, 208-9 Crimea, 43-44,47-49. See aho Ukraine history and national mythology, 43-44 Orange Revolution, 7, 10, 44-46, 47, 262-63 population, 3-4,124 Russians in, 222,259-60,261-62 Ukraine’s possession, 44 UN condemnation and resolution, 99, 111-12,113 Crimea invasion and annexation, 3,47-49 as defense of Russia’s national interests, 244 as defense of Russia’s national interests, arguments against, 256-57 explanations, popular, 18-19 Le Pen support, 84 New Look military, 185 nuclear response, possibility, 10-11,209 Putin’s decision and explanation, 13,24,241 rationale, history and Russian Orthodoxy, 21 ՅՕՏ sanctions after, 66,120,129,221-22,244 snap
exercise preparations, 204 soft power, 218-19 on South Stream, Bulgaria, 82-83 Wests provocation rationale, 238-40 cronyism, 22-23,301-2n.87 CSTO. See Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) cyberattacks Baltics, 39-40 U.S. election, 2016,12-13,19, 226-27, 229-30 cyberpower and cyber interventions, 3,13-14,19, 217,226-31 espionage, 67 espionage, Europe, 83 espionage, France, 84 Cyprus, 78-79 Czech Republic, NATO, 74-75 Dahl, Robert, 15 Dawisha, Karen, 253-54 death rate, 126,155-56,161/, 161-63, 164,165-66 debt Cold War, 242 foreign, 8,125,126-27 military expenditures, 123 payments, 136-37 state-owned companies, 122 debt-to֊GDP ratio, 131-32,133-34 debt-to-GNI ratio, 138-39,139/ defense spending, 186-94,187-93nnf-f 2000-2018,186-87,187/ purchasing power parity weighted, 191 -92 vs. U.S., China, and others, in U.S. dollars, 190-91,191/ vs. U.S. and China, in U.S. dollars, 190/, 190 vs. U.S. and China, percentage ofgovernment spending, 187-89,188/, 29ІП.26 vs. world highest defense spenders, 192-94,193/ Delanoe, Igor, 87-88 demographics. See aho specific topics fertility rate, 155-56,162/, 162-63,164,167 infant mortality, 165,173-74 Mandatory Health Insurance, 165 mortality rate and trends, 14,155-56,16lf, 161-63,164,165-66,27ІП.39 negative trends, 1960-1980,126 population decline, World War II and Stalin deaths, 156-57,289ՈՈ.31-32 population structure, 162/, 163-64,164/ poverty, 99,128-29,136,173-75,174/ public health reforms and health promotion, 165-67 tobacco consumption, 155-57,161-62,165
306 INDEX demographic trends, 155-80 brain drain, 168-70,169/, 170/ demographic decline and recovery, 156-70, 158-64nnf-f education, skills matches, and new global economy, 158/, 175-79 Human Development Index, 157-58,158/ immigration and emigration, 167/, 167-68, 168/, 169/ inequality and frustration, 170-75,172-73nnff, 254,30ІП.64 life expectancy, 14,126,155-56,157,158/, 158-66,159/, 160/, 173-74,236,27ІП.39 problems, policy responses to, 165-67 development spending, 149,150/ disinformation, 225-30 Baltics, 40 cyber warriors, 227 Europe, 84-85 HIV/AIDS origin, 225-27,296n.38 Pizzagate and Hillary Clinton, 227 distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, 227-28 domestic determinants, ofpower, 235-67. See ako power, state, and its domestic determinants Duma, 22-24,250-51,254,255,257-58,259 Dunford, Joseph, 185-86 Duvall, Raymond, 16 Eastern Europe, 73-74,135. See also specific countries map, 37/ NATO expansion, 18-19,20,42-43,73-77, 79-80,240-41,242 economic and security associations, regional, 63-67 economic and trade policy, 69-70 economy, 119-53. See ako gas prices and revenues; oil prices and revenue; specific topics agriculture, 124-25,135,139-40,144—46,145/ decline, 120,121-22,123-28,130/ 130-31 diversification, 119-20,133-34,140-43 economic and financial means, 119-20 foreign reserves, 138, 139/ global, new, 175-79 Gorbachev and, 123-25,126-28 growth, 119-20,121-24,129/, 129,130-37, 131/, 134/, 139-40,144-47,148,149-51 internal investment, 122 patent grants and development spending, 149,150/ post-communist period, immediate, 121 privatization,
6-7,128-29,135,147,158-59, 172-73,175,250,254,286n.65 research and development spending, 148-49,149/ resource revenue dependence, 4,8-9,119 trade organization memberships, 120-21 wealth and New Russians, 120 economy, 1992-2019,6,120 2000s, early, 121-22 balance sheet, Russian, 128-34,129-34nnf-f crises, major, 129 mineral revenues, 133 personal income tax and value-added tax, 132-33 recovery, factors, 132-33 shock therapy and price liberalization, 128-29 starting point, 123-28 economy, contemporary, 134-52 classification and improvements, 13-14 complexity, 143J, 143-46,144/ diversification, export growth and, 139-40 diversification, innovation and, 140-43 export structure change, 144-46,145/ external debt-to-GNI ratio, 138-39,139f foreign direct investment, inward, 141/, 141-42 foreign investment, into and out of, 142/, 142-43 foreign reserve, 138,139/ innovation, 121-22,146-49,284n.4 innovation, financing challenges, 148,287n.72 labor productivity, 13-14 living at/below subsistence minimum, 136-37,137/ National Welfare Fund and National Reserve Fund, 137-38,138/ resource extraction, 13-14 Russia 2020,140-41 stability, 149-52 structure, evolving, 135-40 unemployment, 136/, 136,153,158-59 education, 158/, 174/, 175-79,176/ Egypt, 87, 88-89,99-101 nuclear power plant, 99-100 Putin travels, 89 election interference, 2016 U.S., 3,12-13,19,26, 105-6,217,226-27,229-30,245,260-61, 263,297Ո.Տ1 emigration, 167,168-70,169/ energy, 69-70. See aho gas; oil disruptions, 37-38,45-46,50,53-54,80-82, 227-28,273n.9 Europe, 80-83 policy and strategy, 69-70,134-35 resources, 119-20,135 (see
ako gas; oil; specific regions and topics) engineers, 175-76,290n.45 Erdoğan, Recept Tayyip, 95-96,97 Estonia, 36-40,37/, 277n.8. See ako Baltic States history, Soviet and pre-Soviet, 34,273n.6 migrant worker remittances to, 56t NATO membership, 36-37
INDEX population, land area, and GDP, 34,35r Eurasia map, 37ƒ Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), 65-66, 276Ո.83 Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), 36-37,39-40, 52,55-58,65-67,109-10,219 Eurasianism, 21 Euro-Maidan, 47,55-57,242 Europe. See also specific countries democracy, drifts away, 85-86 disinformation wars, 84-85 investment in Russia, 79-80,141/ 141-42 military exercises, western borders, 77 missiles and nuclear forces, 77-78 NATO expansion, Eastern Europe, 18-19,20, 42-43,73-77,79-80,240-41,242 politicians, alliances, 83-84 politicians, illiberal, Russian support, 84-85 trade and sanctions, 78-79 unanimity, 78 vulnerability, economic, 78 vulnerability, energy sector, 80-83 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), 147,286n.6S European Union, 73-109. See also specific countries and topics membership, accession to, 44-45,47-48, 54, 55-57,73,75,76-77,97,242, 259-60,261 Russian relations, 73-86 exports, 6-7. See aho specific types to China, raw materials, 106-7 to EU, 78,80 facemasks, Covid-19,221-22 growth, 139-40 metals, precious, 13-14 structure change, 144-46,145/ external debt-to-GNI ratio, 138-39,139/ BRICS, 138-39,139/ FancyBear, 229-30 Federation Council, 251 fertility rate, 155-56,162/, 162-63,164,167 Fish, Steven, 246-47 foreign aid, inward, Soviet Union collapse, 6,7 foreign aid, outward, 221-22 Belarus, 53-54 Central Asia, 58-59 Eurasian Economic Union, 66 facemasks, Covid֊19,221-22 India, 112 natural disasters, 216-17 as soft power, 217-18 Sub-Saharan Africa, 103-4,105-6 Tajikistan, 61-62 foreign direct investment (FDI), 8,10,13-14, 141/,
141-43,142/ foreign policy, 18-19 307 authoritarianism legacy on, 22,272n.56 domestic levers on, 18-25,25/ grand strategy, 5,69-71, 76-77, 79-80,83,246 patronalism on, 256-62 foreign reserves, 138,139/ France air forces, 202t gas exports to, 81-82 gross domestic product, 133,142-44 investments in Russia, 79-80,141-42 land-based combat capabilities, 195,1951 Macron, Emmanuel, 84,223,229 military expenditures, 190-91,191/, 192-94,193/ military personnel, 195r Mistral contract, 197 nuclear weapons, 205-7,206t Russian cyberwarfare, 229 sea forces, 198r G-8 nations admission, 7 Gaddafi, Muammar, 9-10,88,99-100, 101,247-48 Gaidar, Yegor, 6-7,124,125 gas global significance, 235-36 Iran sanctions, assistance, 91-92 Iraq, 94 Kyrgyzstan, 61-62 Syria, 93-94 gas exports, 13-14,20 1995-2016,143-44,144/ to Baltics, 37-38,39 to Belarus, 52-53 to BRICs, 144/ to Caucasus, 54-55,57-58 to Central Asia, 59 to China, 111, 144/ to Europe, 80-82 to France, 81-82 to Georgia, 43 to Germany, 80-82,84-85 to Hungary, 80-83 to India, 113 to Kyrgyzstan, 61-62 to Moldova, 49,50 revenues and economy, 20 to Tajikistan, 61-62 to Turkey, 82-83,95 to Turkmenistan, 62 to Ukraine, 45-46,47 to Uzbekistan, 62 gas prices and revenues, 7-8,11-12 decline, 2008,8-9 on economy, 7-8,13-14,119-20,133 on policy making, 20
308 INDEX gas reserves, exploration, and development, 243-44 Arctic, 102,199-200 on economy, 135 Libya, 100-1 Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, 102-3 Sub-Saharan Africa, 103-5 Gazprom assets transfer, to Putin and cronies, 149-51 Baltics, 39 Caucasus, 54-55 control, Putins inner circle, 253 Germany, 81-82 in gross domestic product, 147-48 Iraq, 94 Saudi Arabia, 102 Tajikistan, 61-62 Turkey, 82-83 Ukraine, 45-46,53 geographic domain, 16-17,18-19,24,32-33 geographic domain and policy scope ofpower, 3168,70,71-72. See aho specific regions autocratic post-Soviet states, 51-63 (see abo specific states) background, 31-33 Baltics, 36-40,37/ Belarus, 51-54 Caucasus, 54-58 Central Asia, 58-63 Eastern Europe and Eurasia, map, 37ƒ economic and security associations, regional, 63-67 geography, 32-33 Georgia, 40-43 liberalizing states, 36-51 (see also specific states) migrant worker remittances, to former Soviet states, 56r Moldova, 49-51 revival, in its neighborhood, 33-36 Russia vs. other former Soviet states, 35r Ukraine, 43-49 geography, 32-33 geopolitics, 32-33,32n.3,235,239-40,273n.5 Georgia, 54-58 migrant worker remittances to, 56r military force against, 2008,12 population, land area, and GDP, 34,35r Rose Revolution, 7,40-41 Russian relations with, 41,43 war, 183-84 war against, 41-43 Gerasimov, Valery, 83 Gerasimov doctrine, 83,230-31 Germany cyberwarfare, 229 cyberwarfare against, 229 economic complexity, 143/, 143 education spending, 175-76,176/, 177-78 election hacking, 84-85 fascist, Soviet defeat, 259-60 geopolitics, 74 Hitler and World War II, 240 investments in Russia,
79-80,141-42,242-43 military expenditures, 190-92,191/, 198r Nord Stream II, 81-82 oil and gas exports to and pipeline, 80-82, 84-85 RT propaganda, 224 Russian Empire wars with, 74 Syrian Constitutional Commission, 93-94 Weimar Russia, 242,263 Giles, Keir, 227 Gini coefficients, 171,172/ global economy, new, 175-79 global influence, 69-109. See aho specific regions and topics communism collapse, 72 economic and trade policy, 69-70 energy, 69-70 (see also gas exports; oil exports; pipelines) Europe, 73-109 geographic domain, 70 Latin America, 106-9 Middle East and North Africa, 86-103 (see aho Middle East and North Africa (MENA)) military and political bulwark, 69-70 policy areas, key, 69-70 satellites and communist regimes, 1980, 71-72 South Asia, 110,112-14 sub-Saharan Africa, 103-6 Gorbachev, Mikhail Afghanistan withdrawal, 182-83 arms redaction agreements, US., 7,207, 242,266 Baltics putsch against, 36-37 Cold War defeat, Wests reaction, 20 communism-capitalism clash, end of, 70 communism collapse, response, 72 economic reforms, 125 General Secretary, CPSU, 33-34 GulfWar, first, 270n.20 Israel relations, reestablishing, 88-89 NATO promise, to not expand eastward, 74 perestroika, 100 price increases and shortages, 126-28 reforms, 6 Soviet Union collapse and economy, 123-25 grand strategy, 5,69-71,76-77,79-80,83,246 great power status, 62 Greene, Samuel, 247-48,257,258-59 gross domestic product (GDP), 3-4,35t, 120. See also specific regions 1991-1997, growth, 147-48
INDEX 1992-2019,129/, 129-32,130/, 131/ 1992-2019, Putins projections, 133 2014, reclassification, 13-14 Gazprom in, 147-48 per capita, at purchasing power parity, 3-4,1314,35r, 120,27ІП.37 Gross National Income (GNI), 158/ 1992-2019,131-32 external debt-to-GNI ratio, 138-39,139f Group of 8 (G-8), 7,237-38,242-43 Gulf states, 101-3 Gusinsky, Vladimir, 149-51,250,251-52 Gvosdev, Nikolas, 26 Haftar, General Khalifa, 100-1 Hale, Henry, 247,272n.53 hard power, 77,181-215,235-36 air combat capabilities, 201-4,202r comparative, defense spending, 186-94, 187֊93nnf֊f comparative, nuclear weapons, 205-14, 206t,210r comparative, nuclear weapons, upgraded and new systems, 181-82,211-14,213r conventional capabilities, 194-205 land-based combat capabilities, 195-96,195t military personnel, 194,195r naval capabilities, 197-201,198t New Look military reform, 184-86,187-89, 194,197,201-3,204,209,232 readiness, 204-5 S-300 missile defense system, 91,92,93,199200,203,213r, 214 S-400 missile defense system, 86, 93, 96-97, 102, 110, 113, 199-200, 203, 213r, 214 healthcare, 104-5,126,155-57,161,165,166, 170-71,173-74,189,236 health promotion, 165-67 heroin addiction, 58-60 Herzog, Stephen, 39-40 HIV/AIDS epidemic, 59-60,158-59 disinformation campaign, 225-27,296n.38 human development, 14 Human Development Index (HDI), 157-58,158/ Hungary economic influence, Russian, 78-79 far-right governments, 2010,73-74 gas and pipelines, 80-83 gross domestic product per capita, 13-14 investments in, Russian, 79 Kovács, Béla, 83 Ufe expectancy, 14 market institutions and neoUberal economic reforms, 73 NATO,
74-75 309 Orbán, Viktor, 79, 85,225 Warsaw Pact, 71-72 Hussain, Saddam, 88,94-95 hybrid warfare, 83,230-32 immigration, 167-68,168/ imports, to Russia food and grain, 124-25 from Moldova, blocked, 50 oil payments for, 126 from Ukraine, blocked, 46-47 income inequality, frustration and, 170-75,17273nnf-f, 2S4,30ІП.64 tax, personal, 132-33 India, 110,112-14 inequahty, frustration and, 170-75,172-73nnf-f, 254,30ІП.64 infant mortality, 165,173-74 influence, spheres of. See also global influence; specific topics international politic, 3-4 information wars, 225-30 INF Treaty, 77-78,207,213-14 International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt, 7-8 support, early 1990s, 6 international political affairs influence, 3-4 Russia as Soviet Unions successor, 6 internet access, denying, 227-28 Baltics, disrupting, 40 deep-sea cables, 12 disinformation campaigns, 223,227 penetration and usage, 178-79 pro-Kremlin bloggers, 261-62 Internet Research Agency (IRA), 105-6, 229-30,260-61 investment, internal, 122 investment, Russian inward, 140-42,141/ China, 135,141/, 143 corruption on, 119-20 Ease of Doing Business on, 134-35 on economy, 142/, 142-43 Europe, 79-80,141/, 141-42 foreign direct investment, 8,10,13-14,141/, 141-43,142/ France, 79-80,141-42 Germany, 79-80,141-42,242-43 India, 113-14 labor costs on, 13-14,146 sanctions on, 13-14 United Kingdom, 79-80,141-42 United States, 242-43 U.S. companies, 243 weak rule oflaw and enforcement on, 148,151-52
310 investment, Russian outward, 142/, 142-43 Bulgaria, 79 Central Asia, 62 China, 63,91,132-33 Cuba, 106-7 on economy, 142/, 142-43 Europe, 79-80 foreign direct investment, 142f 142-43 in Hungary, 79 in other countries, 142{ 142-43 Sub-Saharan Africa, 104-5 Iran, 87,88-92 al-Assad, Bashar and, 24,90,95-96,101-2, 185-86,190-91,235-36 Iraq and, 89-90 Israel and, 98 nuclear power plant, 99-100 Putin travels, 89 S-300 missile defense system, 91,279n.58 sanctions, 9,91-92,279n.60 Saudi Arabia and, 101-2 Syria and, 89-91 Iraq, 87-88,94-95 anti-Soviet alliance, U.S., 88 Gazprom, 94 Hussain, Saddam, 88,94-95 Iran and, 89-90 Turkey and, 94 U.S. coalition war, 94-95 Israel, 87-89, 97-99 Iran and, 98 Iraq and, 94 Netanhayu, 98 Syria and, 97-98 Ivanov, Igor, 89-90 Japan aging population, 163-64 Association of South East Asian Nations, 112-13 empire, 239 high-tech civilian commodities, 132-33 military expenditures, 193/ retail sector, 127-28 size vs. influence, 33 Joint Comprehensive Plan ofAction (JCPOA), 91-92,242-43 Karimov, Islam, 60,61,64 Karshi-Khanabad (K2) airbase, 60-61 Katz, Mark, 98 Kazakhstan, 61,62-63. See also Central Asia China trade, 62 Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 economic and security associations, 64-67 INDEX Eurasian Economic Union, 46,52 grain, 62-63 history, pre-Soviet, 34 immigrants to Russia, 168/, 168 migrant worker remittances to, 56f as nation-states, independent, 34 nuclear weapons, Soviet, 205 population, land area, and GDP, 34,351 Russian diaspora in, 58-59,63 stability and Russian security,
58-59,61 Khodorkovsky, Mikhail, 135,149-51,251-52 Khrushchev, Nikita, 22-23,44,70,71-72,123-24 kleptocracy, 22,60,121,253 Kofman, Michael, 191-92 Kosovo, 73,74,266,270n.29,277n.l0 Kotkin, Stephen, 239 Kovács, Béla, 83 Kuchma, Leonid, 45 Kyrgyzstan, 9-10,59-63. See aho Central Asia Bakiyev s toppling, 9-10 Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 color revolution, 41 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 economic and security associations, 64—67 Eurasian Economic Union, 46, 52 history, pre-Soviet, 34 immigrants to Russia, 168/, 168 migrant worker remittances to, 55-57,56f population, land area, and GDP, 34,35t soft power, 219 land-based combat capabilities, 195-96,195f Latin America, 106-9 GDP, population, and land area, 35r revolution promotion, 70 Latvia, 36-40,37/, 277n.8. See aho Baltic States Bolsheviks, 273n.6 history, pre-Soviet, 34 migrant worker remittances to, 56f NATO membership, 36-37 population, land area, and GDP, 34,35f law, rule of, 148,151-52,152ƒ Lebedena, Irina, 254 Legvold, Robert, 245,272n.S6 Lenin, Vladimir, 120-21 Le Pen, Marin, 84,229 liberalizing states, 36-51. See aho specific states Libya, 87,88,99-101,105-6,235-36,240-41, 247-48,260-61 Gaddafi, Muammar, 9-Ю, 88,99-100, 101,247-48 life expectancy, 14,126,155-56,157,158/, 15866,159/, 160/, 173-74,236,27ІП.39 men vs. women, Russia, 158-S9,159/, 160-61 Russia vs. other countries, 159-60,160/ Lipset, Seymour Martin, 249
INDEX Lipton, David, 126-27 Lithuania, 36-40,37/, 277n.8. See also Baltic States Bolsheviks, 273Ո.6 migrant worker remittances to, 56f NATO membership, 36-37 population, land area, and GDP, 34,35t Lo, Bobo, 26,239 loans-for-shares, 128-29 Ludwig, Jessica, 217 Lukoil, 94,104-5,147-48,204-5 Macron, Emmanuel, 84,223,229 Manas airbase, 60-61 Mandatory Health Insurance (MHI), 165 Marsh, Christopher, 26 Marxism-Leninism, 33,70-71,73-74,217-18 McFaul, Michael, 257,260,279n.58 Mead, Walter Russell, 245,257 Mearsheimer, John, 15,20,238-39 media. See also cyberattacks disinformation, 84-85 (see aho disinformation; propaganda) independent, 85 influence, other countries, 83,219-20,223 RT (Russia Today), 40, 84-85,105,223-25, 227,229 Russian language, cultural dominance, 63 social, 217,225-29 as soft power, 86 as soft/sharp power hybrid, 217 Sputnik News, 84-85,105,106,223-25, 227,229 Medvedev, Dmitri arms exports, 91 country home, 170-71 development goals, 140-41 end ofpresidency, 177 innovation and technology leaders, 177-78 Libya, 100 public health reforms, 165 Putin and, 75-76,255,257-58 reset, Obama administration and, 9-11,243-44 revival, 40-42 Ukraine, 262 Merkel, Angela, 229 Middle East Putin travels, 89 revolution promotion, 70 Middle East and North Africa (MENA), 86-103. See ako specific countries Egypt and Libya, 99-101 historical background, 86-89 Iran, 89-92 Iraq, 94-95 Israel, 97-99 monarchies, 88 Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, 101-3 311 Syria, 92-94 trade and security relationships, 87 Turkey, 95-97 migrant workers remittances home, 55,56f Migranyan, Andranik, 221
migration out of Russia, 167-68,169ЈЈ 170J, 170-75 perceptions on, 169-70 into Russia, 167-68,168/ military, 235-36. See also hard power; specific countries and types; specific topics doctrine, 10-11,181-82,270Ո.24 NATO, 77-78,182,195-96,203,207,214, 244,266 personnel, 194,195Ѓ reform, New Look, 184-86,187-89,194,197, 201-3,204,209,232 structure, 184-85 military capabilities, conventional, 194-205 air combat, 201-4,202r land-based combat, 195-96,195t military personnel, 194,19ЅЃ naval, 197-201,198f readiness, 204—S military industrial complex, 191-92,292Ո.31 Milov, Vladimir, 149-51 minerals, precious revenues, 133 Sub-Saharan Africa, 103-5 missiles, 77-78 air and surface-to-air, 201-3,202i anti-tank, 196 new and modernized, 181-82,186,192 nuclear, 205-7,206f, 209-14,210t number, 205 submarine, 197-201,198f missiles and missile-defense systems exports. See aho weapons exports China, 110 ban, 91,92,279Ո.58 Iraq, 94-95 Latin America, 107 S-300 missile defense system, 91,279n.58 Saudi Arabia, 92,94,113 Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, 102 Sub-Saharan Africa, 105 Turkey, 94,96-97 modernization theory, 249 Moldova, 49-51 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 migrant worker remittances to, 56r population, land area, and GDP, 34,35f Transdniestria conflict, 12,49-50 Morgenthau, Hans, 15 mortality rate, 155-56,161/, 161-63,164,16566,27ІП.39 Munich Conference, 75-76
312 INDEX Nabiullina, Elvira, 140-41 Nabucco pipeline, 82-83 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, 12,57-58,275n.62 nationalism, 21,86 National Reserve Fund, 122,134-35, 137-38,138/ National Wealth (Welfare) Fund, 122,134-35, 136-38,138/ NATO. See North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) NATO-Russia Council, 75 NATO-Russia Founding Act, 75 naval capabilities, 197-201,198t Navalny, Alexei, 170-71 Nazarbayev, Nursultan, 58-59 Nemtsov, Boris, 149-51 Netanhayu, Benjamin, 98 New Look military reform, 184-86,187-89,194, 197,201-3,204,209,232 New START, 9,205-7,209,242-43 NGOs, 85,249,258 Nichiporuk, Brian, 208-9 Niyazov, Saparmurat, 62 Nord Stream, 81-82 Nord Stream II, 81-82,83 North Africa, revolution promotion, 70 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) 2000s, early, relations, 10-11,12-13 autocratic post-Soviet states, 51 Baltic States, 36-37,38,39-40 Central Asia, 61 expansion, Eastern Europe, 18-19,20,42-43, 73-77,79-80,239-41,242 Georgia, 41,42-43 joining, prevention from, 67-68 military, 77-78,182,195-96,203,207,214, 244,266 Moldova, 49,50-51 Putins return on, 10-11 Russia’s complaints, 5 as threat, 36-37 Ukraine, 10,24,31-32,48-49 Northern Distribution Network (NDN), 9 NovoRossiia, 48 nuclear arms reduction treaty, 7 INF Treaty, 77-78,207,213-14 New START, 9,205-7,209,242-43 nuclear weapons, 205-14,206f, 210t deterrence, 12-13,77-78,208,231,2707ІП.31,278Ո.22,293n.79 doctrine, 12-13,205-11,206t, 270-7ІП.31 upgrades and new systems, 181-82, 211-14,213f Nye, Joseph, 216-17,218-19 Obama, Barack, 9,34,61,69, 72, 92-93,242-43 oil. See also energy countries’ dependence and Russian
power, 16-17,18 economy, 119-23 global significance, 235-36 Iran, 91-92 Iraq, 94-95 Saudi Arabia, 102-3 Syrian, 93-94 oil exports 1995-2016,143-44,144/ to Baltics, 37-38,273n,9 to Belarus, 52-54 to BRICS, 144/ to Caucasus, 57 to Central Asia, 59 to China, 111, 144/ disruptions, politically motivated, 37-38,4546,50,53-54,80-82,227-28,273n.9 on economy, 13-14,20 to Europe, 80-82 to Germany, 80-82,84-85 to India, 112 modern era, 135-38 to Poland, 80-82 Soviet Union collapse, import revenue, 126 to Turkey, 95 oil prices and revenues, 20,119-20 1992-2019,133,134/ 2000s early boom, 131-32 2008 decline, 8-9,124-25,129 on economy, 7-9,11-12,13-14,20,119-25, 126,129,131-32,133-34,134/, 250,252 policies and reserve funds, 121-22,134-3S, 137-38,138/ on policy making, 20 rise, global, 7-8 Saudi Arabia, pricing strategies, 101-2 Soviet Union collapse, 123-25 oil reserves, exploration, and development, 243-44 Arctic, 199-200 Brazil, 106-7 Libya, 100-1 Sub-Saharan Africa, 103-5 Venezuela, 108 oligarchs, 46,86,119,128-29,135,149-51,171, 250,251-52,253 Oliker, Olga, 208-9 Olympics, Sochi, 11-12,24,25/, 222-23,296n.26 Orange Revolution (Ukraine), 7,10,44—46, 47,262-63 Orbán, Viktor, 79,85,225 Orenstein, Mitchefl, 79 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 13-14,126, 131,135,136,139-40,147-48,173, 175-76,237-38
INDEX P5+1 group, 91 pacification of masses, 23 patent grants, 149,150/ patronalism, 28,58-59,105-6,149-51,179-80, 237,246,247,249,252,266,267,272n.53, 301-2Ո.87 on domestic and foreign policy, 256-62 enrichment and regime stability, 252-56 regime politics, 246-48 Pavlovsky, Gleb, 262 personal income tax, 132-33 personnel, military, 194, 1951 phishing attacks, 228-29 Pierre, Marie, 92-93 pipelines Central Asia, 59 control over, 235-36 disruptions and slowdowns via, 80-81 Iran and Iraq, 91-92 Iran-Armenia, ArmRosGazprom 54-55 Kirkuk-Ceyhan, 94 Latvia and Lithuania, 37-38 Nabucco, 82-83 Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan-Armenia, 55,57 Nigeria, 104-5 Nord Stream, 81-82 Nord Stream II, 81-82, 83 Power of Siberia, 111 Russian Eastern-Siberian Pacific Ocean, 111 Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, 102-3 South Stream, 82-83 Soviet Druzhba (or Friendship), 80-81 Poland democracy decline, 85-86 far-right government, 2010,73-74 gross domestic product, 13-14 market institutions and neoliberal economic reforms, 73 missile defense systems, 240-41 mortality rate, 161-62 NATO, joining, 74-75 NATO forces in, 77-78,244 pipeline, oil refineries, and energy dependence, 80-82 post-communism, 73 Warsaw Pact, 71-72,74 Western sanctions on Russia, 78-79 policy key areas, 69-70 scope, 16-17,18,31-33,67 politics bulwark, 69-70 geopolitics, 32-33,32n.3,235, 239-40,273Ո.5 international, influence, 3-4,6 population, 3-4,15,130-31,236,237. See also demographics; specific states and countries brain drain, 168-70,169/ demographic decline and recovery, 156-70 growth, 125,126,155-56 immigration and emigration,
167/, 167-68,168/ land area and, 35-36,351 structure (pyramid), 163/ 163-64,164/ Poroshenko, Petro, 48-49,261 poverty, 99,128-29,136,173-75,174/ power dimensions, multiple, 4,15-18,17/ geographic domain, 16-17 great, Russia as, 18 means, 15,17 policy scope, 16-17 relational, 16-17 theory, 15-16 power, state, and its domestic determinants, 235-67 patronalism, for enrichment and regime stability, 252-56 patronalism, on domestic and foreign policy, 256-62 patronalism, regime politics, 246-48 power and its purposes, 237-38 purposes, autocracy tightening, 248-52 regime type, power, 262-65 Russia on offense ?, 244-46 strong hand and will to use it, 265-67 West on offense, Russia on defense, 238-44 price liberalization, 1992-2019,128-29 Prigozhin, Yevgeny, 63,93,101,105-6, 229-30,260-61 privatization, 6-7,128-29,135,147,158-59, 172-73,175, 250,254,286n.65, propaganda, 216-17,222,223,225. See aho disinformation; media; soft power RT (Russia Today), 40,84-85,105,223-25, 227,229 Sputnik News, 84-85,105,106,223-25, 227,229 protests, 23-24 Georgia, 41 inequality and corruption, 170-71, 173, 264 Moldova, 49 Moscow, 2011,23-24 Putins return, 2012,249,257-58,259 social benefits reform, 248 Ukraine, 24,45,47,241,259-60,264 Ukraine, 2013,24 public health reforms, 165-67 public opinion, 247-48,258-59 Purushothaman, Roopa, 7-8 Pussy Riot, 258-59 313
314 INDEX Putin, Vladimir approval ratings, 24,25/ on Medvedev s reset and NATO relations, 10-11 resurgence under, 11-14 Russian presidency, motivations for reassuming, 9-10 reactive argument, 20 readiness, military, 204-5 realism, 18-19 realpolitik, 237,240,244,245,246,265 regime type, 262-65 research and development spending, 148-49,149/ Reserve Fund, National, 122,134-35, 137-38,138/ reset, 9-11,76,242-43 resource revenue dependence, 4,8-9,119 resurgence, under Putin, 11-14 revival, 33-36 Revolution of Dignity, 47,55-57,242 Robertson, Graeme, 247-48,257,258-59 RosAtom (Russia Atomic Energy Agency), 99-100,104-5 Rose Revolution (Georgia), 7,40-41 Rosneft, 10,83,94,102,106-7,108,113,136-37, 142-43,147-48,243-44,253 Rotenberg, Arkady, 47-48,63 Rotenberg, Boris, 63 RT (Russia Today), 40,84-85,105,223-25, 227,229 Russia. See also specific topics as disrupter, 4,19 geography, 34-35,35r (see aho geographic domain) vs. other former Soviet states, 35t population, land area, and GDP, 34-35,35r Russia 2020,140-41 Russian Central Bank, 126-27,134-35, 137-38,140-41 Russian Eastem-Siberian Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline, 111 Russian-Georgian War, 2008,9-Ю, 41-42,61 Russian Military Doctrine, 2014,10-11 Russian Orthodox Church, 21,38,220,258-59 Russian World (Russkii Mir), 21,38 S-300 missile defense system, 91,92,93,199-200, 203,213r, 214,279Ո.58 S-400 missile defense system, 86,93,96-97,102, 110,113,199-200,203,213r, 214 Saakashvili, Mikhail, 41-42,43,273n.23 Sachs, Jeffrey, 126-27 sanctions, Russian, 253 on Belarus, 52 on Turkey, 95-96 on Ukraine, 47,109 sanctions, UN on Iran,
9,91-92,279n.60 on Iraq, 94-95 on Libya, 9-10,100 sanctions, U. S. on Arctic oil explorations, 113 on Venezuela, 66,78-80,81-82,91-92,102, 104-5,108-9 sanctions on Russia, EU and U.S., 8-9,13-14, 66,260-61 defense spending in spite of, 186-87 on economy, 120,121-22,129,141-42,143, 144-46,152,153,235-36 Orbán efforts, 225 Putin on, 182 on trade/relations with other countries, 78-80, 81-82,91-92,102,104-5,114 Trump violation, 221-22 Sarkozy, Nicolas, 42-43 satellites and communist regimes, 1980,71-72 Saudi Arabia, 101-3 anti-Islamist military operation, Libya, 100-1 anti-Soviet alliance, U.S., 88 Gazprom, 102 Iran relations, 89-90,101-2 military expenditures, 193/ military supplies (S-400s), 92,94,113 oil exports, 111, 135 oil price protections, abandoning, 124 trade, diplomatic, and security relationships, 87, 89,235-36 Savisaar, Edgar, 39 Sberbank, 147-48 Scherr, James, 236 security border, 51,58-60,61-62 China, 109-11 Collective Security Treaty Organization, 57-58, 61,64-66,112-13,219,275Ո.61 Kazakhstan, 58-59,61,64-67 Kyrgyzstan, 64-67 Middle East and North Africa, 87 regime, 69-70 regional associations, 63-67 Saudi Arabia, 87,89,235-36 Turkmenistan, 64 UN Security Council, 108-9,111-12 Uzbekistan, 64-65 Yeltsin, 266 Security Service (FSB), 22-23 Segal, Jakob, 225-26 Serbia Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 color revolution, 240-41 democracy, 73
INDEX freedom, decline, 86 oil dependence, 81-83 pan-Slavism and culture promotion, 220 sharp power, 225-30 cyber warriors, 227 definition and examples, 217 distributed denial of service attacks, 227-28 Fancy Bear, 229-30 HIV/AIDS story, 225-27,296n.38 hybrid tactics, 230-32 phishing attacks, 228-29 Pizzagate and Hillary Clinton, 227 U.S. presidential elections (2016), 217,226-27, 229-30,297Ո.51 Shevardnadze, Eduard, 40-41 Shleifer, Andrei, 7-8,147 shock therapy, 1992-2019,128-29 Silitski, Vitali, 52 Sisi, General Abdel Fattali, 100-1 skills, 176,179. See aho education Škirpai, Sergei, 222-23 Skolkovo, 140,148,177-78,220,243 smoking, 155-57,161-62,165 Sochi Olympics, 11-12,24,25/, 222-23,296n.26 soft power, 17,70-71,86,186,216-25 definition, 216-17 geographic domain, 221-22 hybrid tactics, 230-32 media, RT, and Sputnik, 223-25 Nye, definition and conceptualization, 216-17,218-19 policy and tools, 219-21 Sochi Olympics and World Cup, 222-23, 290Ո.26 Soviet legacy, 217-25 use, 216-17 South Asia, 110,112-14 South Ossetia, 9-Ю, 41-43,48-49,53-54 South Stream pipeline, 82-83 Soviet Union collapse, 5-6,123-28 historical legacy, 6,25,34,63,135,139-40, 147-48,175,179,217-25 (see aho specific topics) survival, predictions pre-collapse, 269n.7 SputnikNews, 84-85,105,106,223-25,227,229 START Treaty, 9 state power and its domestic determinants, v-28 foreign policy, domestic levers on, 18-25,25ƒ gross domestic product, 3-4 international politics, influence, 3-4 population, 3-4 power, multiple dimensions, 4,15-18 resurgence, Putins, 3,11-14 revival, extent, 5-11 STEM education,
175-76,177-78,178/ 179 Stent, Angela, 7,26,70,76 315 Sub-Saharan Africa, 103-6 suicide, 158-59 Syria, 92-94 2015 troop deployment, 12,21,71 influence over, 24 Iran and, 89-91 Israel and, 97-98 Israel attack (1973), 88 military effort and influence, 100-2,103-4, 168,185-87,190-91,201,203,204,23S-36, 240-41,260-61,262 tensions with U.S. over, 12-13 trade and security relations, 87 Turkey and, 95-97 Tajikistan, 59-60,61-63. See aho Central Asia Collective Security Treaty Organization, 64,112-13 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 Gazprom, 61-62 history, pre-Soviet, 34 immigrants to Russia, 168/ 168 migrant worker remittances to, 55, S6t population, land area, and GDP, 34,35r tanks, 26-27,107-8,113,186,195-96,195r, 231 Taylor, Brian, 254 terrorism, 7,61,76, 89-90,98,110,112-13,219, 242,243 tobacco consumption, 155-57,161-62,165 trade. See also specific commodities Africa, 105 Arctic routes, 109-10 China, 109-11 Europe, 78-79 India, 113-14 Middle East and North Africa, 87 policy, 69-70 sanctions on, 78-80, 81-82,91-92,102, 104-5,114 Saudi Arabia, 87, 89,235-36 Yeltsin, 6-7,242 trade organization memberships, 120-21 Transdniestria conflict (Moldova), 12,49-50 Treisman, Daniel, 7-8,257 Trenin, Dmitri, 26,42-43,54,88 Trudeau, Pierre, 256-57 Trump, Donald, 48-49 Tunisia, 87,99,240-41,263 Turkey, 87,88,89,95-97 anti-Soviet alliance with U.S., 88 Erdoğan, Recept Tayyip, 95-96,97 Gazprom, 82-83 Iraq and, 94 migrant worker remittances to, 561 military supplies (S-400s), 94 Putin travels, 89 Syria and, 95-97
316 INDEX Turkmenistan, 62,63. See aho Central Asia economic and security associations, 64 gas and Nabucco pipeline, 82 history, pre-Soviet, 34 immigrants to Russia from, 78 population, land area, and GDP, 34,35i TurkStream, 82-83,95 Tymoshenko, Yuha, 46 Ukraine, 43-49. See aho Crimea EU membership, public opinion on, 48-49, 274Ո.36 Euro-Maidan, 47,55-57,242 Gazprom, 45-46,53 invasion, 2014,12,13,20,21 Kuchma, Leonid, 45 migrant worker remittances to, S6t NATO, 10,24 Orange Revolution, 7,10,44-46,47,262-63 population, land area, and GDP, 34,35i protests, 23-24,45,47,241,259-60,264 U.S. relations, 12-13 Yanukovych, Victor, 10,24,44-45,46-47,6566,257,259-60,264 unemployment rates, I36f, 136,153,157-59 United Kingdom, 79-80,141-42 air forces, 202í investments in Russia, 79-80,141-42 land-based combat capabilities, 195,195i military expenditures, 190-91,191/, 192-94,193/ nuclear weapons, 205-7,206i relations, 133 sea forces, 198f United Nations (UN) Crimea seizure resolution, 113 Syrian Constitutional Commission, 93-94 UN Security Council, 108-9,111-12 United Nations (UN) sanctions on Iran, 9,91-92,279n.60 on Iraq, 94-95 on Libya, 9-Ю, 100 United Russia, 23-24,250-51,257-58 United States (U.S.) Central Asia relations, 58,60-61,64-65 education spending, 161,176/, 176-77 Egypt relations, 99-100 elections interference, 3,12-13,19,26,105-6, 217,226-27,229-30,245,260-61,263, 297Ո.51 engineers, 175-76 geography, 17,32-33 gross domestic product, 3-4,129/ 129-31, 130/, 131/ gross national income, 131-32 Human Development Index, 157 Iraq war, 94-95 life expectancy, 159-60,160/, 162-63
Middle East and North Africa, 87-89 military and defense spending, 187-94,188_^ 190/, 191/, 193/ military and political bulwark against, 69-70 nuclear deterrence, 17-18 nuclear forces, 205-7,206i, 208209211,210t, 212,214 power resources, 4 RT viewers in, 223 Russian emigrants to, 155-56,168,169-70 Russia policy, 42 Russia relations, 7,9-11,12,21,40 Russia relations, Ukraine and Syria, 12-13, 24,92-93 sanctions on Russia (see sanctions on Russia, EU and US.) Saudi Arabia and Gulf states relations, 102-3 Sputnik in, 223-24 Turkey relations, 95-97 Uzbekistan, 9-10, 60-62, 63. See also Central Asia Collective Security Treaty Organization, 61, 64,112-13 Commonwealth of Independent States, 64 economic and security associations, 64-65 history, pre-Soviet, 34 migrants to Russia from, 78 migrant worker remittances to, 56t population, land area, and GDP, 34,35i. value-added tax, 132-33 Vanin, Mikhail, 10-11,209 Venezuela, 14,42-43,53-54,107-9,263 VTB Bank, 147-48 Wagner Group, 93,101,105-6,260-61 Walker, Christopher, 217 Walt, Stephan, 15,238,239 Waltz, Ken, 15 Warsaw Pact countries, 71-72,74 wealth inequality, frustration and, 170-75,17273nnf-f, 254, ЗОІп.64 weapons exports, 13-14,102-3,235-36. See aho missiles and missile-defense systems exports Armenia, 57 China, 92,110 Gulf states, 102-3 Iran, 92 Libya, 101 Medvedev, 91 Russian Weapons Export Agency, 99-100 S-300 missile defense system, 91,92,93,199200,203,213f, 214,279Ո.58 S-400 missile defense system, 86,93,96-97, 102,110,113,199-200,203,213t, 214 Saudi Arabia, 92,94,113
INDEX Somalia, 103-4 South Asia, 112-13 Turkey, 94 Venezuela, 108 Welfare Fund, National, 122,134-35, 136-38,138/ Westad, Odd Arne, 71 Wilson, Dominic, 7-8 Winter Olympics, Sochi, 11-12,24,25f 222-23, 317 World Bank, 8,130,131-32 debt, 7-8 support, early 1990s, 6 World Governance Indicators (WGI) corruption, control of, IS If, 151 law, rule of, 148,151-52,152/ World Trade Organization (WTO), 10, 140-41,242-43 World War II historical memory, 239 Nazi Germany, 39-40,259-60 population dechne, 156-57 Russian veterans, 98,220 Soviet army deaths, 156-57,289n.31 Yeltsin, Boris, 158-59,171,182-83 Belarus relations, 52-53 Chechen conflict, 183 Clinton negotiations, 277n.l0 diaspora, treatment abroad, 36-37 domestic and economic politics, 72 economic reforms, 6-7 foreign trade, 6-7 Kosovo conflict, 74,277n.l0 loans-for-shares program, 128-29 NATO, 74-76 opposition, 250-51 presidencies, 21 prime ministers, 132-33,138-39 privatization and inequalities, 254 reforms, 6-7,252 security, Europe and U.S. cooperation, 266 social and political change, 7 special privileges, 251 U.S. cooperation, trade and financial assistance, 242 youth, 169-71,170/, 179-80,264 Yugoslavia, 71-72,73 Yukos, 135,147,251-52 Yushchenko, Viktor, 10,45,46 Yanukovych, Viktor, 10,24,44-45,46-47,65-66, 257,259-60,264 Zelensky, Volodymyr, 48-49,261 Zwack, Peter, 92-93 296Ո.26 : Bayerische į Staatsbibliothek í München J |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Stoner, Kathryn 1965- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1035260646 |
| author_facet | Stoner, Kathryn 1965- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Stoner, Kathryn 1965- |
| author_variant | k s ks |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV047191412 |
| classification_rvk | ML 6600 |
| contents | Is Russia resurrected? -- Russia as a regional power -- Where (else) in the world is Russia? -- The unsteady economic means of Russian power -- Russian society as power resource or constraint? -- Russian hard power: conventional and nuclear assets -- Russia's soft and sharp power -- old wine in new bottles? -- The domestic determinants of Russia's resurrection |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1256444340 (DE-599)BVBBV047191412 |
| dewey-full | 327.47 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 327 - International relations |
| dewey-raw | 327.47 |
| dewey-search | 327.47 |
| dewey-sort | 3327.47 |
| dewey-tens | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
| discipline | Politologie |
| discipline_str_mv | Politologie |
| format | Book |
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| geographic | Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Russland |
| id | DE-604.BV047191412 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T16:48:00Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:05:12Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780190860714 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-032596595 |
| oclc_num | 1256444340 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-703 DE-29 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-703 DE-29 DE-188 |
| physical | xix, 317 Seiten Diagramme, Karten |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20210628 |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateSearch | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | Oxford University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Stoner, Kathryn 1965- Verfasser (DE-588)1035260646 aut Russia resurrected its power and purpose in a new global order Kathryn E. Stoner New York, NY Oxford University Press [2021] © 2021 xix, 317 Seiten Diagramme, Karten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Is Russia resurrected? -- Russia as a regional power -- Where (else) in the world is Russia? -- The unsteady economic means of Russian power -- Russian society as power resource or constraint? -- Russian hard power: conventional and nuclear assets -- Russia's soft and sharp power -- old wine in new bottles? -- The domestic determinants of Russia's resurrection "This book refutes the idea that Russia plays a weak hand well in international politics. The book argues instead that Russia under Vladimir Putin's regime may not be as weak as is sometimes thought in the West. It takes a multi-dimensional approach in assessing Russian state power in international relations, going beyond metrics of power like relative strength of the economy, human capital, and size of the military, to also include the policy weight or importance of Russian firms and industries, as well as where geographically, Russian influence has spread globally. The book includes fresh empirical data on the Russian economy, demography and human capital, and conventional military and nuclear weaponry capacities in Russia relative to other great powers like China and the United States. The book argues that realpolitik alone does not explain Russian foreign policy choices under Putin. Rather, Putin's patronal autocratic regime and the need for social stability plays an important role in understanding when and why Russian power is projected in the 21st century"-- Großmachtpolitik (DE-588)4158292-5 gnd rswk-swf Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd rswk-swf Macht (DE-588)4036824-5 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf Russia (Federation) / Foreign relations / 21st century Russia (Federation) / Politics and government / 1991- Russia (Federation) / Economic conditions / 1991- Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich / 1952- / Influence Russia (Federation) / Forecasting International relations / Forecasting Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich / 1952- Diplomatic relations Economic history Forecasting Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.) Politics and government Russia (Federation) Since 1991 Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 s Großmachtpolitik (DE-588)4158292-5 s Macht (DE-588)4036824-5 s DE-604 Online version 9780190860738 Stoner, Kathryn Russia resurrected New York : Oxford University Press, 2021 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032596595&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032596595&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register |
| spellingShingle | Stoner, Kathryn 1965- Russia resurrected its power and purpose in a new global order Is Russia resurrected? -- Russia as a regional power -- Where (else) in the world is Russia? -- The unsteady economic means of Russian power -- Russian society as power resource or constraint? -- Russian hard power: conventional and nuclear assets -- Russia's soft and sharp power -- old wine in new bottles? -- The domestic determinants of Russia's resurrection Großmachtpolitik (DE-588)4158292-5 gnd Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Macht (DE-588)4036824-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4158292-5 (DE-588)4003846-4 (DE-588)4036824-5 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | Russia resurrected its power and purpose in a new global order |
| title_auth | Russia resurrected its power and purpose in a new global order |
| title_exact_search | Russia resurrected its power and purpose in a new global order |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Russia resurrected its power and purpose in a new global order |
| title_full | Russia resurrected its power and purpose in a new global order Kathryn E. Stoner |
| title_fullStr | Russia resurrected its power and purpose in a new global order Kathryn E. Stoner |
| title_full_unstemmed | Russia resurrected its power and purpose in a new global order Kathryn E. Stoner |
| title_short | Russia resurrected |
| title_sort | russia resurrected its power and purpose in a new global order |
| title_sub | its power and purpose in a new global order |
| topic | Großmachtpolitik (DE-588)4158292-5 gnd Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Macht (DE-588)4036824-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Großmachtpolitik Außenpolitik Macht Russland |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032596595&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032596595&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT stonerkathryn russiaresurrecteditspowerandpurposeinanewglobalorder |