Verfügbarkeit: Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security

Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security:

Gespeichert in:

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser:	Flanagan, Stephen J. 1951- (VerfasserIn), Binnendijk, Anika (VerfasserIn), Chindea, Irina A. (VerfasserIn), Costello, Katherine (VerfasserIn), Kirkwood, Geoffrey (VerfasserIn), Massicot, Dara (VerfasserIn), Reach, Clinton Bruce (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Santa Monica Rand 2020
Schlagworte:	NATO Sicherheitspolitik Internationale Politik Bewaffneter Konflikt Schwarzmeer-Gebiet Russland
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis Literaturverzeichnis
Beschreibung:	175 Seiten Illustrationen, Karten
ISBN:	9781977405685

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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text	Contents Preface...........................................................................................................................................iii Figures and Tables......................................................................................................................vii Summary..................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgments...................................................................................................................... xv Abbreviations.............................................................................................................................xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction Stephen J. Flanagan................................................................................................................. 1 Complex Political and Security Dynamics in the Black Sea Region........................................ 1 Methodology...................................................................................................................................5 Organization of This Report......................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER TWO The Black Sea Region in Russia’s Worldview Stephen J. Flanagan and the Project Team............................................................................... 9 How Russian Leaders View the World......................................................................................... 9 How Russian Leaders View the West...........................................................................................11 How Russian Leaders View Russia Itself.....................................................................................15 Trajectories in Russia’s Worldview............................................................................................ 23 Implications for Russia’s Strategy in the Black Sea Region.................................................... 24 Framing the Multidimensional Contest in the Black Sea Region ...........................................25 CHAPTER THREE Russian Measures of Influence Short of Force Geoffrey Kirkwood and Dara Massicot................................................................................. Media-Based Influences.............................................................................................................. Energy Politics and Economic Influences............................................................................... Clandestine and Covert Activities............................................................................................ Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy............................................................... 27 27 34 38 43 vi Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security CHAPTER FOUR The Military Role in Russia’s Black Sea Strategy Clint Reach....................................................................................................................... 47 Russia’s Interests, Objectives, and Strategy in the Black Sea Region................................. 48 Trends in Russian Military Capabilities............................................................................... 54 Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy.............................................................73 CHAPTER FIVE Romanian, Bulgarian, and Turkish Views on Russian Strategy and Posture Anika Binnendijk and Katherine Costello......................................................................... 75 Romania: Consistent Apprehension About Russia’s Intentions............................................76 Bulgaria: Caution in Balancing Concern with Opportunity............................................... 81 Turkey: Concerns Overridden by Interests, for Now.......................................................... 86 Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy............................................................ 90 CHAPTER SIX Western Partners on the Black Sea’s Northwestern Shore: Ukraine and Moldova Irina A. Chindea................................................................................................................ 95 Ukraine: Seeking Stronger Ties to the West, Hindered by Aggressive Russian Interference..................................................................................................................... 98 Moldova: Western Partnership Limited by Internal Divisions and Russian Pressure....... 115 Potential U.S. and NATO Actions in Ukraine and Moldova to Support a Countervailing Western Strategy................................................................................. 124 CHAPTER SEVEN The South Caucasus and Black Sea Security Stephen J Flanagan, Geoffrey Kirkwood, and the Project Team..................................... Georgia: Euro-Atlantic Aspirations..................................................................................... Azerbaijan: Seeking Integration with the West but Susceptible to Russian Pressures....... Armenia: Russian Ally Interested in Some Western Ties................................................... 127 127 134 140 CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusions and Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy Stephen J. Flanagan......................................................................................................... 147 Russia’s Intentions, Capabilities, and Redlines.................................................................... 147 Recommended Elements of a Countervailing Western Strategy........................................ 149 References 153 References “A Plan to Reduce Europe’s Dependence on Russian Gas Looks Shaky,” The Economist, January 5, 2019. “A Pro-Western Government Has Been Pushed Out in Moldova,” The Economist, December 12, 2019. “A Russian Propaganda Outlet Prospers in Turkey,” The Economist, February 28, 2019. 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adam_txt	Contents Preface.iii Figures and Tables.vii Summary. ix Acknowledgments. xv Abbreviations.xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction Stephen J. Flanagan. 1 Complex Political and Security Dynamics in the Black Sea Region. 1 Methodology.5 Organization of This Report. 6 CHAPTER TWO The Black Sea Region in Russia’s Worldview Stephen J. Flanagan and the Project Team. 9 How Russian Leaders View the World. 9 How Russian Leaders View the West.11 How Russian Leaders View Russia Itself.15 Trajectories in Russia’s Worldview. 23 Implications for Russia’s Strategy in the Black Sea Region. 24 Framing the Multidimensional Contest in the Black Sea Region .25 CHAPTER THREE Russian Measures of Influence Short of Force Geoffrey Kirkwood and Dara Massicot. Media-Based Influences. Energy Politics and Economic Influences. Clandestine and Covert Activities. Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy. 27 27 34 38 43 vi Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security CHAPTER FOUR The Military Role in Russia’s Black Sea Strategy Clint Reach. 47 Russia’s Interests, Objectives, and Strategy in the Black Sea Region. 48 Trends in Russian Military Capabilities. 54 Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy.73 CHAPTER FIVE Romanian, Bulgarian, and Turkish Views on Russian Strategy and Posture Anika Binnendijk and Katherine Costello. 75 Romania: Consistent Apprehension About Russia’s Intentions.76 Bulgaria: Caution in Balancing Concern with Opportunity. 81 Turkey: Concerns Overridden by Interests, for Now. 86 Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy. 90 CHAPTER SIX Western Partners on the Black Sea’s Northwestern Shore: Ukraine and Moldova Irina A. Chindea. 95 Ukraine: Seeking Stronger Ties to the West, Hindered by Aggressive Russian Interference. 98 Moldova: Western Partnership Limited by Internal Divisions and Russian Pressure. 115 Potential U.S. and NATO Actions in Ukraine and Moldova to Support a Countervailing Western Strategy. 124 CHAPTER SEVEN The South Caucasus and Black Sea Security Stephen J Flanagan, Geoffrey Kirkwood, and the Project Team. Georgia: Euro-Atlantic Aspirations. Azerbaijan: Seeking Integration with the West but Susceptible to Russian Pressures. Armenia: Russian Ally Interested in Some Western Ties. 127 127 134 140 CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusions and Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy Stephen J. 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As of January 16, 2020: https://www.transparency.org/cpi2019 Treisman, Daniel, “Why Putin Took Crimea: The Gambler in the Kremlin,” Foreign Affairs, May/ June 2016. Tsolova, Tsvetelia, and Alissa de Carbonnel, “Bulgaria to Build New Link to Turkey in Hope of Russian Gas,” Reuters, June 26, 2018. Tsolova, Tsvetelia, Angel Krasimirov, “Russia-Friendly Political Novice Wins Bulgaria Presidential Elections,” Reuters, November 12, 2016. Tsygichko, Vitalii, Modelt v sistemeprinyatiya voenno-strategicheskikh reshenii v SSSR [Models in the System ofMilitary-Strategic Decision Making in the USSR], Imperium Press, 2005. Tucker, Patrick, “Ukraine Is Building a Mosquito Navy to Fend Off Russia, with US Help,” Defense One, September 26, 2018. --------- , “Exclusive: US Intelligence Officials and Satellite Photos Detail Russian Military Buildup on Crimea,” Defense One, June 12, 2019. “Turkey Has Shelved Turkish Stream Gas Pipeline Project, Says President Erdoğan,” Hürriyet Daily News, December 5, 2015. “Two Ukrainian Warships Enter Sea of Azov to Become Part of Newly Created Naval Base,” Ukrinform, September 24, 2018. “Ukraine and Russia Are Both Trapped by the War in Donbas,” The Economist, May 25, 2017. “Ukraine Hands President Zelenskiy’s Party a Majority,” Deutsche Welle, July 22, 2019. “Ukraine Says It Has New Contracts for Second Batch of U.S. Javelin Missiles,” Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, December 27, 2019. Ukrainian Navy, “Russian Attack Against Ukrainian Navy Ships, 25 November 2018,” briefing presented at the Jamestown Foundation, Washington, D.C., December 14, 2018. --------- , Strategy ofthe Naval Forces ofthe Armed Forces of Ukraine 2035, Kyiv, January 11, 2019. “U.S. and Ukraine Conclude Maritime Exercise Sea Breeze 2019,” Naval Technology, July 16, 2019. U.S. Department of Defense, “5 Things to Know About the U.S.-Ukraine Defense Relationship,” November 7, 2019. --------- , “DOD Announces $250M to Ukraine,” press release, June 11, 2020. U.S. European Command, “Armenia and U.S. Celebrate Opening of Zar Peacekeeping Training Area,” press release, November 1, 2017. “U.S. Frowns on Armenia’s Involvement in Russia-Backed Syria Mission,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, February 13, 2019. “V Krymu poiavilsia desantno-shturmovoi batal’on VDV [An Airborne Battalion Appeared in Crimea],” Rossiiskayagazeta, December 1, 2017. “V Krymu sformirovano upravlenie 32-go armeiskogo korpusa [Command and Control of the 32nd Army Corps Stood Up],” bmpd blog, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, December 3, 2016. As of August 15, 2019: https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2301922.html References 175 “V Krymu zapustil na boevoe dezhurstvo chetvertyi divizion zenitnoi raketnoi sistemy S-400 [The Fourth S-400 SAM Battalion Was Activated in Crimea],” bmpd blog, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, December 1, 2018. As of August 15, 2019: https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3436390.htmliformat4ight “V sostav 55-go vertoletnogo polka v Korenovske postupili novye boevye vertolety Ka-52 [New Ka-52 Combat Helicopters Delivered to the 55th Helicopter Regiment in Korenovsk],” bmpd blog, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, December 2, 2016. As of August 15, 2019: https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2299l48.html Verbyany, Volodymyr, and Daryna Krasnolutska, “Ukrainian President Clinches Majority in Shock Election Resuk,” Bloomberg, July 21, 2019. Vesti, “Miroporyadok: Dokumental’nyi film Vladimira Solov’eva [World Order: Documentary by Vladimir Solov’ev],” video, YouTube, December 20, 2015. As of August 15, 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watchivsZNhYzYUo42g “Vse rossiiskie voennye v Sirii progolosovali za Putina [All Russian Military Personnel in Syria Voted for Putin],” Vedomosti, March 19, 2018. Walker, Shaun, “Denis Voronekov: Ex-Russian MP Who Fled to Ukraine Killed in Kiev,” The Guardian, March 23, 2017. Weber, Yuval, “Russia’s Black Sea Strategy: Restoring Great Power Status,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, April 12, 2017. Wesolowsky, Tony, and Yaroslav Kreshko, “Italy Moves to Crack Down on Its Fighters in Ukraine’s Donbass,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, August 16, 2018. Wezeman, Siemon T., and Alexandra Kuimova, Romania and Black Sea Security, Solna, Sweden: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, December 2018. Witte, Griff, and William Booth, “Disarray in Eastern Ukraine as Protest Is Attacked, Mayor Is Shot,” Washington Post, April 29, 2014. World Bank, “GDP per Capita (Current US$)—Moldova,” webpage, undated-a. As January 20, 2020: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=MD view=chart --------- , “GDP per Capita (Current US$)—Ukraine,” webpage, undated-b. As January 20, 2020: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=UA view=chart Yaylalı, Cem Devrim, “USS Carney, USNS Yuma Enter Black Sea Ahead of Sea Breeze 2019 Exercise,” USNI News, July 1, 2019. “Yeltsin Assails Parliament Vote Claiming Crimean Port for Russia,” New York Times, July 11, 1993. Yotova, Denica, “View from Sofìa: In the Shadow of Elections,” Sofia Globe, October 15, 2016. “Zelenskiy Suggests Holding Referendum Before Ukraine’s Accession to EU, NATO,” Kyiv Post, April 1, 2019. Zevelev, Igor, “The Russian World in Moscow’s Strategy,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 22, 2016. “Zenitnaya raketnaya sistema S-300V4 v Krymu [The S-300V4 SAM System in Crimea],” bmpd blog, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, December 1, 2016. As of August 15, 2019: https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2296725.html Zernov, M. I., and A. V. Serzhantov, “O protivovozdushnoi oborane voisk v nachaľnyi period voiny [On the Air Defense of Troops in the Initiai Period of War],” Voennaya mysl’ [Military Thought], No. 12, 2003. Bayerische Staatsbibliothek МЛплһвп
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author	Flanagan, Stephen J. 1951- Binnendijk, Anika Chindea, Irina A. Costello, Katherine Kirkwood, Geoffrey Massicot, Dara Reach, Clinton Bruce
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author_facet	Flanagan, Stephen J. 1951- Binnendijk, Anika Chindea, Irina A. Costello, Katherine Kirkwood, Geoffrey Massicot, Dara Reach, Clinton Bruce
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format	Book
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spelling	Flanagan, Stephen J. 1951- Verfasser (DE-588)170184196 aut Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security Stephen J. Flanagan, Anika Binnendijk, Irina A. Chindea, Katherine Costello, Geoffrey Kirkwood, Dara Massicot, Clint Reach Santa Monica Rand 2020 175 Seiten Illustrationen, Karten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier NATO (DE-588)377-3 gnd rswk-swf Sicherheitspolitik (DE-588)4116489-1 gnd rswk-swf Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd rswk-swf Bewaffneter Konflikt (DE-588)4137568-3 gnd rswk-swf Schwarzmeer-Gebiet (DE-588)4208254-7 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g NATO (DE-588)377-3 b Schwarzmeer-Gebiet (DE-588)4208254-7 g Sicherheitspolitik (DE-588)4116489-1 s Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 s Bewaffneter Konflikt (DE-588)4137568-3 s DE-604 Binnendijk, Anika Verfasser (DE-588)1184942366 aut Chindea, Irina A. Verfasser (DE-588)1196817154 aut Costello, Katherine Verfasser (DE-588)1174817674 aut Kirkwood, Geoffrey Verfasser (DE-588)1220363642 aut Massicot, Dara Verfasser (DE-588)1139899600 aut Reach, Clinton Bruce Verfasser (DE-588)1139393480 aut Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032502602&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032502602&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis
spellingShingle	Flanagan, Stephen J. 1951- Binnendijk, Anika Chindea, Irina A. Costello, Katherine Kirkwood, Geoffrey Massicot, Dara Reach, Clinton Bruce Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security NATO (DE-588)377-3 gnd Sicherheitspolitik (DE-588)4116489-1 gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Bewaffneter Konflikt (DE-588)4137568-3 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)377-3 (DE-588)4116489-1 (DE-588)4072885-7 (DE-588)4137568-3 (DE-588)4208254-7 (DE-588)4076899-5
title	Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security
title_auth	Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security
title_exact_search	Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security
title_exact_search_txtP	Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security
title_full	Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security Stephen J. Flanagan, Anika Binnendijk, Irina A. Chindea, Katherine Costello, Geoffrey Kirkwood, Dara Massicot, Clint Reach
title_fullStr	Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security Stephen J. Flanagan, Anika Binnendijk, Irina A. Chindea, Katherine Costello, Geoffrey Kirkwood, Dara Massicot, Clint Reach
title_full_unstemmed	Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security Stephen J. Flanagan, Anika Binnendijk, Irina A. Chindea, Katherine Costello, Geoffrey Kirkwood, Dara Massicot, Clint Reach
title_short	Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security
title_sort	russia nato and black sea security
topic	NATO (DE-588)377-3 gnd Sicherheitspolitik (DE-588)4116489-1 gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Bewaffneter Konflikt (DE-588)4137568-3 gnd
topic_facet	NATO Sicherheitspolitik Internationale Politik Bewaffneter Konflikt Schwarzmeer-Gebiet Russland
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032502602&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032502602&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
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