U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji:
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Literaturverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Tiraž 150 Literaturverzeichnis Seite 101-107 |
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| adam_text | j 7 1. ZAŠTO SU NAM POTREBNE DEMOGRAFSKE PROJEKCIJE? 9 1.1. Ranije projekcije stanovništva na podnacionalnom nivou 15 2. POLITIKE ODRŽIVOG RAZVOJA KAO PROJEKCIONI OKVIR 17 2.1. Konceptualno-metodoioški okvir projekcije 19 2.1.1. Teorijsko-empirijski model u očekivanom scenariju 25 3. MOGUĆE PROMENE U STOPAMA RAĐANJA - OČEKIVANI I OPTIMISTIČKI SCENARIO 27 29 ЗО 37 3.1. Optimizam zvaničnih projekcija 3.2. Hipoteza о fertilitetu 3.2.1. Hipoteze о fertilitetu na nivou oblasti 4. SMANJENJE SMRTNOSTI - OČEKIVANI SCENARIO 39 4.1. Zvanične projekcije - od pesimizma do optimizma 41 4.2. Hipoteza о mortalitetu 45 45 5. KAKO MIGRACIJE ČINE RAZLIKU - OČEKIVANI SCENARIO 5.1. Unutrašnja migracija 47 50 5.1.1. Hipoteza о unutrašnjoj migraciji 5.2. Međunarodna migracija 51 5.2.1. Hipoteze u zvaničnim projekcijama 53 5.2.2. Hipoteza о međunarodnoj migraciji 61 6. SCENARIJI POPULACIONOG RAZVITKA 61 6.1. Scenario „očekivana budućnost 73 90 6.2. Scenario „optimistična budućnost 6.3. Scenario „nulti migracioni saldo 6.4. Diskusija scenarija u kontekstu zvanične projekcije RZS 91 6.4.1. Poruke na osnovu populacione dinamike 2018-2050. 93 6.4.2. (Nejupotrebljivost zvanične prognoze RZS 2011-2041. 82 97 7. ZAKUUČNA RAZMATRANJA: KAKVA POPULACIONA POLITIKA NAM TREBA? LITERATURA I IZVORI ANEKS
LITERATURA I IZVORI Alho, J. M., Spencer, B. D. (2005). Statistical Demography and Forecasting. New York: Springer. Alkema, L, Raftery, A. E., Gerland, R, Clark, S. J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T., Gerhard, H. K. (2011). Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography, 48(3), 815-839. Azose, J. J., Ševčíkova, H., Raftery, A. E. (2016). Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(23), 6460-6465. Basten, S. A., Coleman, D. A., Gu, B. (2012). Re-Examining the Fertility Assumptions in the UN s 2010 World Population Prospects: Intentions and Fertility Recovery in East Asia? Population Association of America, 2012 Annual Meeting Program, San Francisco (USA), 3-5 May, 2012. http://paa2012.princeton.edu/papers/122426 Booth, H. (2006). Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3), 547-581. CDt IDN (1979). Razvitak stanovništva SR Srbije i promene do 2000. godine. Beograd: Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka. Devedžić, M., Stojilković, J. (2012). Novo poimanje starosti - prospektivna starost. Stanovništvo, 50(1), 45-68. Dion, P. (2012). Evaluating Population Projections: Insights from a Review made at Statistics Canada. Annual meeting of the Population Association of America, San Francisco, 2012. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Draženović, l., Kunovac, M., Pripužić, D. (2018). Dynamics and Determinants of Emigration: The Case of Croatia and the Experience of New EU Member States. Public Sector Economics,
42(4), 415-447. Drbohlav, D., Lachmanová-Medová, L, Čermák, Z„ Janská, E., Čermáková, D., Dzúrová, D. (2009). The Czech Republic: on its way from emigration to immigration country. Idea Working Paper 11. http://www.idea6fp. uw.edu.pl/pliki/WP11_Czech_Republic.pdf
102 Vladimir Nikitović | U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji European Commission (2019). Communication From the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. 2019 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. Brussels: European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/ sites/near/files/20190529-communication-on-eu-enlargementpolicy.pdf Eurostat (2019a). EUROPOP2018 - Population projections at national level (2018-2100). Luxembourg: Eurostat, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ web/population-demography-migration-projections/populationprojections-/database Eurostat (2019b). Eurostat on-line database. Luxembourg: Eurostat, http:// ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database Fassmann, H., Reeger, U. (2012). Old immigration countries in Europe. The concept and empirical examples. In M. Okólski (ed.), European Immigrations: Trends, structures and policy implications (pp. 66-90). IMISCOE Research Series. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press. Fassmann, H., Musil, E„ Bauer, R., Melegh, A., Gruber, K. (2014). Longer-Term Demographic Dynamics in South-East Europe: Convergent, Divergent and Delayed Development Paths. Central and Eastern European Migration Review, 3(2), 150-172. Fosdick, B. K., Raftery, A. E. (2014). Regional probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by modeling between-country correlations. Demographic Research, 30, 1011-1034. Fox, J., Klüsener, S., Myrskylä, M. (2019). Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level?
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Stanovništvo, 55(1), 87-106. Marshall, E. (2015). Population projections and Demographic Knowledge in France and Great Britain in the Postwar Period. Population and Development Review, 41(2), 271-300. Matysiak, A., Nowok B. (2006), Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005-2050. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Working paper WP 2006-026). Mcdonald, P. (2006). Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy. Population and Development Review, 32(3), 485-510. MINRZBS (2019, Februar 8). Prva sedníca Koordinacionog tima za praćenje tokova iz oblasti ekonomskih migracija. Beograd: Ministarstvo za rad,
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j 7 1. ZAŠTO SU NAM POTREBNE DEMOGRAFSKE PROJEKCIJE? 9 1.1. Ranije projekcije stanovništva na podnacionalnom nivou 15 2. POLITIKE ODRŽIVOG RAZVOJA KAO PROJEKCIONI OKVIR 17 2.1. Konceptualno-metodoioški okvir projekcije 19 2.1.1. Teorijsko-empirijski model u očekivanom scenariju 25 3. MOGUĆE PROMENE U STOPAMA RAĐANJA - OČEKIVANI I OPTIMISTIČKI SCENARIO 27 29 ЗО 37 3.1. Optimizam zvaničnih projekcija 3.2. Hipoteza о fertilitetu 3.2.1. Hipoteze о fertilitetu na nivou oblasti 4. SMANJENJE SMRTNOSTI - OČEKIVANI SCENARIO 39 4.1. Zvanične projekcije - od pesimizma do optimizma 41 4.2. Hipoteza о mortalitetu 45 45 5. KAKO MIGRACIJE ČINE RAZLIKU - OČEKIVANI SCENARIO 5.1. Unutrašnja migracija 47 50 5.1.1. Hipoteza о unutrašnjoj migraciji 5.2. Međunarodna migracija 51 5.2.1. Hipoteze u zvaničnim projekcijama 53 5.2.2. Hipoteza о međunarodnoj migraciji 61 6. SCENARIJI POPULACIONOG RAZVITKA 61 6.1. Scenario „očekivana budućnost" 73 90 6.2. Scenario „optimistična budućnost" 6.3. Scenario „nulti migracioni saldo" 6.4. Diskusija scenarija u kontekstu zvanične projekcije RZS 91 6.4.1. Poruke na osnovu populacione dinamike 2018-2050. 93 6.4.2. (Nejupotrebljivost zvanične prognoze RZS 2011-2041. 82 97 7. ZAKUUČNA RAZMATRANJA: KAKVA POPULACIONA POLITIKA NAM TREBA? LITERATURA I IZVORI ANEKS
LITERATURA I IZVORI Alho, J. M., Spencer, B. D. (2005). Statistical Demography and Forecasting. New York: Springer. Alkema, L, Raftery, A. E., Gerland, R, Clark, S. J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T., Gerhard, H. K. (2011). Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography, 48(3), 815-839. Azose, J. J., Ševčíkova, H., Raftery, A. E. (2016). Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(23), 6460-6465. Basten, S. A., Coleman, D. A., Gu, B. (2012). Re-Examining the Fertility Assumptions in the UN's 2010 World Population Prospects: Intentions and Fertility Recovery in East Asia? Population Association of America, 2012 Annual Meeting Program, San Francisco (USA), 3-5 May, 2012. http://paa2012.princeton.edu/papers/122426 Booth, H. (2006). Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3), 547-581. CDt IDN (1979). Razvitak stanovništva SR Srbije i promene do 2000. godine. Beograd: Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka. Devedžić, M., Stojilković, J. (2012). Novo poimanje starosti - prospektivna starost. Stanovništvo, 50(1), 45-68. Dion, P. (2012). Evaluating Population Projections: Insights from a Review made at Statistics Canada. Annual meeting of the Population Association of America, San Francisco, 2012. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Draženović, l., Kunovac, M., Pripužić, D. (2018). Dynamics and Determinants of Emigration: The Case of Croatia and the Experience of New EU Member States. Public Sector Economics,
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102 Vladimir Nikitović | U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji European Commission (2019). Communication From the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. 2019 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy. Brussels: European Commission, https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/ sites/near/files/20190529-communication-on-eu-enlargementpolicy.pdf Eurostat (2019a). EUROPOP2018 - Population projections at national level (2018-2100). Luxembourg: Eurostat, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ web/population-demography-migration-projections/populationprojections-/database Eurostat (2019b). Eurostat on-line database. Luxembourg: Eurostat, http:// ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database Fassmann, H., Reeger, U. (2012). Old' immigration countries in Europe. The concept and empirical examples. In M. Okólski (ed.), European Immigrations: Trends, structures and policy implications (pp. 66-90). IMISCOE Research Series. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press. Fassmann, H., Musil, E„ Bauer, R., Melegh, A., Gruber, K. (2014). Longer-Term Demographic Dynamics in South-East Europe: Convergent, Divergent and Delayed Development Paths. Central and Eastern European Migration Review, 3(2), 150-172. Fosdick, B. K., Raftery, A. E. (2014). Regional probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by modeling between-country correlations. Demographic Research, 30, 1011-1034. Fox, J., Klüsener, S., Myrskylä, M. (2019). Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level?
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104 Vladimir Nikitović ļ U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji zapošljavanje, boračka i socijalna pitanja (MINRZBS). https://www.rninrzs. gov.rs/sr/aktuelnosti/saopstenja/prva -sednica -koordinacionog -tima-za-pracenje-tokova-iz-oblasti-ekonomskih-migracija Morgan, P. S., Taylor, M. G. (2006). Low Fertility at the Turn of the TwentyFirst Century. Annual Review ofSociology, 32,375-399. Mulder, T. J. (2002). Accuracy of the U.S. Census Bureau National Population Projections and Their Respective Components of Change. Population Division Working Paper 50. Washington: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Myrskylä, M., Kohler, Η-P., Biliari, F. C. (2009). Advances in development reverse Fertility declines. Nature, 460(7256), 741-743. Nikitović, V. (2007). Stohastička projekcija stanovništva centralne Srbije na osnovu empirijskih projekcionih grešaka. Stanovništvo, 45(1), 7-31. Nikitović, V. (2010). Demografska budućnost Srbije: Imigracija kao izvesnosG Beograd: Službeni glasnik, Institut društvenih nauka. Nikitović, V. (2011). Functional Data Analysis in Forecasting Serbian Fertility. Stanovništvo, 49(2), 73-89. Nikitović, V. (2013). Demografska budućnost Srbije na drugi način. Stanovništvo, 51(2), 53-81. Nikitović, V. (2016). Dugoročne posledice niskog fertiliteta u regionu bivše Jugoslavije. Stanovništvo, 54(2), 29-54. Nikitović, V., Bajat, В., Blagojević, D. (2016). Spatial patterns of recent demographic trends in Serbia (1961-2010). Geografie, 121 (4), 521-543. Nikitović, V., Arsenović, D., Sekulič, A., Bajat, В. (2019). Is the Second Demographic Transition
a useful framework for understanding the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century? AUC Geographica, 54(2), 168-183. Pastore, F. (ed.) (2017). Beyond the migration and asylum crisis. Options and lessons for Europe. Rome: Aspen Institute Italia. https://www. aspeninstitute.it/system/files/private_files/2017-02/doc/Beyond_ the%20Migration%20and_Asylum_Crisis_web.pdf Penev, G. (2003). Mortality trends in Serbia during the 1990s. Stanovništvo, 41(1-4), 93-130. Penev, G„ Predojević-Despić, J. (2012). Prostorni aspekti emigracije iz Srbije. Tri "vruće" emigracione zone. Stanovništvo, 50(2), 35-64. Radivojević, B. (2002). Smanjenje smrtnosti starog stanovništva u Jugoslaviji -šansa za povećanje očekivanog trajanja života. Stanovništvo, 40(14), 35-52.
IOS Literatura i izvori RaFtery, A. E., Alkema, L, Gerland, P. (2014). Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations. Statistical Science, 29(1), 58-68. Rašević, M. (2016). Migration and development in Serbia. Belgrade: International Organization for Migration. Regionalni razvoj (2019). Regionalni razvoj. Stepen razvijenosti za 2014. Beograd: Nacionalna agencija za regionalni razvoj. http://www. regionalnirazvoj.gov.rs/Lat/ShowNARRFolder.aspx?mi=171 Reynaud, C, Nikitović, V., Tucci, E. (2017). Recent Immigration from Serbia to Italy: The Beginning of a New Tradition? In V. Janeska A. Lozanoska (eds.), The population of the Balkans at the dawn of the 21st century (pp. 205-220). Skopje: Institute of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje. Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations (5 th ed.). New York: Free Press. RTS (2019, Februar 11). Pitanje svih pitanja - kako sprečiti iseljavanje iz Srbije. Radio televizija Srbije. http://www.rts.rs/page/stories/ci/ story/124/drustvo/3416324/pitanje-svih-pitanja-kako-sprecitiiseljavanje-iz-srbije.html RZS (2014). Projekcije stanovništva Republike Srbije 2011-2041. Beograd: Republički zavod za statistiku Srbije (RZS). RZS (2019). Elektronska baza podataka. Beograd: Republički zavod za statistiku Srbije (RZS). https://data.stat.gov.rs/?caller=SDDB languageCode=sr-Latn Shaw, C. (2007). Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been? Population Trends 128. Titchfield, Hampshire: Office for National Statistics. Sobotka, T. (2008). The diverse faces of the Second
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| spelling | Nikitović, Vladimir, 1973- Verfasser aut U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji Vladimir Nikitović Beograd Institut društvenih nauka 2019. 115 Seiten Karten, Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Edicija Monografije / Institut društvenih nauka Tiraž 150 Literaturverzeichnis Seite 101-107 Bevölkerungsrückgang (DE-588)4194892-0 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 gnd rswk-swf Serbien (DE-588)4054598-2 g Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Bevölkerungsrückgang (DE-588)4194892-0 s DE-604 Digitalisierung BSB München 25 - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032403998&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München 25 - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032403998&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Nikitović, Vladimir, 1973- U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji Bevölkerungsrückgang (DE-588)4194892-0 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4194892-0 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4054598-2 |
| title | U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji |
| title_auth | U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji |
| title_exact_search | U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji |
| title_exact_search_txtP | U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji |
| title_full | U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji Vladimir Nikitović |
| title_fullStr | U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji Vladimir Nikitović |
| title_full_unstemmed | U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji Vladimir Nikitović |
| title_short | U susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u Srbiji |
| title_sort | u susret regionalnoj depopulaciji u srbiji |
| topic | Bevölkerungsrückgang (DE-588)4194892-0 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bevölkerungsrückgang Bevölkerungsentwicklung Serbien |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032403998&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032403998&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nikitovicvladimir1973 ususretregionalnojdepopulacijiusrbiji |