Learning from Russia's recent wars: why, where, and when Russia might strike next
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
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Amherst, New York
Cambria Press
[2020]
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| Schriftenreihe: | Rapid communications in conflict and security series
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Register // Gemischte Register Inhaltsverzeichnis Register // Gemischte Register Inhaltsverzeichnis Register // Gemischte Register |
| Beschreibung: | xiii, 226 Seiten |
| ISBN: | 9781621965411 |
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| adam_text | Table of Contents List of Tables..........................................................................................ix Acknowledgments................................................................................ xi Chapter 1: Theories of Russian Foreign Policy.................................... 1 Chapter 2: Russia’s Post-Soviet Wars, Aggressions, and Interventions..................................................................... 31 Chapter 3: Russia’s Efforts to Rebuild Its Armed Forces for the Future................................................................................. 69 Chapter 4: Russia’s Nonconventional Assets..................................... 97 Chapter 5: Cyber Warfare................................................................. 115 Chapter 6: The Continuing Russian Threat to the Baltic Nations and Eastern Europe............................................................135 Chapter 7: Russian Actions in Central Asia and the Middle East................................................................................... 167 Chapter 8: Conclusion........................................................................ 193 Index.................................................................................................... 217 About the Author................................................................................ 223 Cambria Rapid Communications in Conflict and Security (RCCS) Series...................................................................................... 225
Index Afghanistan, 33-34, 39, 43, 72, 81, 116, 158,168-170, 175-176, 178, 188, 190, 210 Al-Assad, Bashar, 169,181 Al-Qaeda, 42, 46,182 Arab Spring, 81, 100,181, 188 Armenia, 32-33, 64, 108, 171-172, 174-175, 188 Azerbaijan, 32-33, 64, 171-172, 175, 188 asymmetrical warfare, 115-118, 147, 201, 203, 205 See also cyber warfare See also hybrid warfare Baltic nations, 61,108,119, 135-150, 157-160,162-163, 175, 196, 198, 200-201, 203, 205-209, 213 Bārties, Charles K., 22, 57-58, 68, 81, 94 Belarus, 56, 64, 70, 142, 147-149, 151, 153,158-160, 164, 171, 174, 188, 190, 203 Beslan school siege, 13,19, 47, 74 bipolarity, 2 Bogdanov, S.A., 117 Bryce-Rogers, Athena, 67, 75, 93-94 Caucasus, 3, 23-24, 39-40, 42, 44, 46, 49-50, 52, 65, 67, 167, 173, 188, 196, 203, 211-212, 216 Central Asia, 54, 65,108,130, 167-171, 173-176, 178, 180, Central Asia (continued), 186-187, 203, 210-211 Charap, Samuel, 18, 22-23, 62, 64, 68, 189-190 Chechnya, 24, 29, 39-47, 62-63, 65, 73, 81, 117, 152, 172, 177, 190 Chekinov, Co. S.G., 117,132 Chernoymyrdin, Viktor, 42 China, 7, 16, 21, 72, 90, 122, . 3-174, 176-179, 187, BB 189-190, 210-211, 225 Cohen, Ariel, 65, 67, 94, 211, 216 Cold War, 2-3, 64-65, 136, 138,142, 169, 176, 180, 200, 209, 211 Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO), 64,171 color revolutions, 18, 101-102, 105, 112, 167, 169-172, 183, 188, 190 Colton, Timothy J., 18, 22, 29, 68, 132, 164-165, 190, 215 Connell, Michael, 114,118-119, 124, 132-134 Cooper, Julian, 85, 92, 94-96 Crimea, 2-3, 24, 28, 53-54, 56-61, 68, 70, 80, 82, 95, 100, 125-126, 134, 137,139, 141-143, 148, 150-152, 154-157,
159-161, 164-165, 189, 193, 195, 197, 199, 204, 209-210 cyber warfare, 20, 29, 51, 60, 109-111, 114-115, 118-127, 130, 132-134, 142, 144-146, 150,154, 158, 201, 204, 213
218 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars cyber warfare (continued) See also asymmetrical warfare See also hybrid warfare Dagestan, 42, 44 Dawisha, Karen, 96,112,114 Deibert, Ronald J., 123,133 Denmark, 142 domestic factory theory, 1-4, 8-9, 11-13,16, 26, 40, 46, 49, 63, 96, 120-121, 129-130, 140-141, 144, 146, 169, 173, 194, 198, 203, 209 Dreyer, John R., 4, 6, 12, 25-26, 28 Dubrovka Theater siege, 46 Dudayev, Dzhokhar, 40 Eastern Europe, 2, 23-24, 28, 64, 70, 103,108,113,126, 128,130,135, 138,147, 149-150, 153, 157-158, 160,162-163, 165, 168, 170, 175, 186, 188, 193, 196, 198-200, 203, 208-209, 213, 215-216 Estonia, 64, 118-120, 132, 135-137, 141, 144, 146, 208 Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), 64,174 European Union (EU), 27, 38, 51, 56, 58-59, 61, 138-139,147,156, 158, 160, 196-197, 200, 207, 209 France, 7, 33, 108-109,113 Gazprom, 54-55, 144, 154 Georgia, 2, 20, 23-24, 42, 44, 53, 57-58, 62-64, 66-67, 73, 75, 78, 81, 93-94, 107, 110, 118,120, 122-123, 127, 130, 133, 142, 146, 157, 171-173, 175, 187-188, 196-197, 204 Abkhazia, 36-38, 49-52, 65,105, 121 Georgia (continued) South Ossetia, 36-38, 49-52, 65, 105, 121, 152 Gerasimov Doctrine, 20, 68, 81, 85, 94-95, 141 Gerasimov, Valery, 20, 24, 81, 171 Germany, 7, 61, 67,143 Giles, Keir, 23, 67,113,132, 134, 189 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 34, 39, 71, 170, 176 Gorenburg, Dmitry, 64, 87, 94-95 Gotkowska, Justyna, 162-163, 208, 215 Grachev, Pavel, 40, 72 Gvosdev, Nikolas, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 hard power versus soft power, 2, 5, 23, 25, 97,101-107, 112, 145, 163,175,199 hegemony, 7-8, 17, 25-26, 28, 32, 44, 128, 147, 158, 187, 200, 204,
211-212 Helmus, Todd, 113, 163, 206-207, 215 Hobbes, Thomas, 4, 25 Hoffman, Frank, 116,131 Hopf, Ted, 33, 64 hybrid warfare, 2-3, 23-24, 82, 90, 115-118, 121, 127, 130-132, 134, 157-159, 203-204, 210, 215 See also asymmetrical warfare See also cyber warfare India, 89, 96, 169-170,174, 177, 179, 190, 210-211 Ingushetia, 42 Iran, 174-175,184,190, 212-213 Islamic State, 182-187, 213 Ivanov, Sergey, 99
Index Japan, 7, 90 Jesse, Neal G., 4, 6,12, 25-28, 226 Kanét, Roger E., 31, 64 Kazakhstan, 39, 56, 70, 108, 148, 168,171-172, 174-175, 177, 189 Keohane, Robert 0„ 6, 25 Kofman, Michael, 82, 94,118, 132, 157, 164-165, 190-191,195, 199, 215 Kokoshin, Andrey, 118 Kozyrev, Andrei, 171 Kyrgyzstan, 120, 171, 174-175, 177, 189 Latvia, 134-137, 140, 142-144, 146, 162-163, 208 Lavrov, Anton, 66 Lavrov, Sergei, 9, 66, 171, 175, 189 Lithuania, 120, 135, 137, 142-144, 146, 162, 208 Lukashenko, Aiexsandr, 148 Marsh, Christopher, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 Mastriano, Doug, 24,158,162-163, 165, 205-206, 208, 215-216 McDermott, Roger N., 23, 57-58, 61, 67-68, 76, 82, 93-95 McNabb, David E., 22, 66-68, 79, 92-94,133-134, 139, 162-163, 189 Medvedev, Dmitry, 9,13, 20, 48-50, 75, 77-79, 87, 93,100, 102-103, 198 Middle East, 39, 167, 180, 187, 190, 212-213 Miller, Chris, 90, 96 Minsk Group, 33 Moldova, 34-35, 38, 64-65, 188 Monaghan, Andrew, 17, 22-23, 28, 219 Monaghan, Andrew (continued), 118, 131-132, 215 Mongolia, 190 Nagorno-Karabakh, 32, 35 near abroad, 23, 31-32, 52, 64,108, 168, 170-174, 186,188-189, 194, 196, 215 NATO, 17, 21, 49, 52, 58, 60-61, 70, 73, 75, 95,103, 114, 117, 120, 128, 130, 134-136, 140, 142-143, 146-147, 150-151, 158-160, 162, 164, 173, 177, 193, 196-200, 205, 209, 215 Baltic Intelligence Center, 206 commitment to the Baltic nations, 138-139 Enhanced Forward Presence, 139, 208 Rapid Action Plan, 210 Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, 210 Nye, Joseph S.,Jr., 25, 101-102, 112, 145 Oliker, Olga, 22, 188, 199-200, 215 OPEC, 83 Poland, 136, 139-140, 142-143, 147-149,151, 158,
160,163, 198, 200, 208 post-Soviet conflicts, 33, 35 Primakov, Yevgeny, 99, 173, 177 Putin, Vladimir, 9, 13, 22, 45, 55, 63, 66-68, 92-94, 130, 133-134, 162-163, 171, 189 realism, 2-5, 7-9, 11-13, 32, 44, 52, 58, 60, 62-63,120-121, 141, 160-161, 173, 180, 188, 193-196, 199-200, 203-205, 209, 211
220 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Renz, Bettina, 76-77, 92-93, 112, 132,134 Rochlitz, Michael, 23, 98-99,112 Rosneft, 9 Rothstein, Robert L., 6, 25 Russian foreign policy, 1, 4, 52, 61, 64-67, 69,100-101, 157, 164, 167,172-173,183, 186, 189, 194, 211 as minority community in other nations, 31-34, 36, 38, 44, 55, 62, 108, 119-121, 127, 137, 140-141, 143, 145, 148-149, 158,160, 162, 195-197, 203, 205, 209 bases in Syria, 185 corruption in defense funding, 74 decline of military in the 1990s, 71 Doctrine of Information Security, 24, 111 economic pressure on the Baltic nations, 144 economic pressure on the East European nations, 153 Eurasian power, 7 Federal Security Service (FSB), 47-48, 98-99, 110 force posturing, 142, 150 Foreign Policy Concept, 13, 15-16, 24, 28, 139, 147, 162-163, 168, 170-171, 178, 188, 190 goal of greater access to the Baltic Sea, 138-140, 142-143, 162-163, 208, 215 great power seeking, 3, 7-8, 17-18, 21-23, 25-26, 28-29, 32, 43, 62, 94, 112, 138, 147, 176, 199-200 Russian foreign policy (continued) GRU, 99,126,129 information campaigns, 103, 107-110, 115, 124-125, 127-130, 134, 145, 149, 154-156, 159,175, 204-205, 207-208, 213, 215 interference in American 2016 election, 127-128, 130 maskirovka, 154 military exercises with China, 179, 190 Military poor performance in Chechnya, 43 Ministry of Defense, 9,16, 20-21, 29, 51, 70-72, 79-80, 86, 94, 99, 104, 110, 122, 184 novorossiya, 156 reform of the military, 73, 75, 79 State Armament Plan 2015, 78 State Armament Plan 2020, 78-80, 85-89 State Armament Plan 2027, 85-90 Security Council, 9,16, 50, 118,
177, 181 use of propaganda, 2, 23, 48, 81,91,97,106-109,111-113, 115, 124, 127,130,137,141, 144-145, 150, 154-156, 160, 197, 199, 201-202, 204, 206-208, 213, 215 Western sanctions due to 2014 intervention in Ukraine, 80, 82, 84, 86, 90, 95-96, 198 Russian Empire, 2, 39, 54, 59, 101, 136, 154-156, 189,211 Saakashvili, Mikheil, 49 security dilemma, 5 Serdyukov, Anatoly, 19
Index Sergeyev, Igor, 72 Sergunin, Alexander, 17, 22, 29 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), 177-179, 190 Shevtsova, Lilia, 18, 29 Shoigu, Sergei, 18, 79 siloviki, 2, 9, 23, 72-73, 79, 90, 94, 97-100, 103, ПО, 112, 117, 144, 195, 199, 209 small states, 4, 6, 25-28 social constructivism, 3-4,10-11, 13, 26-27, 32, 44, 62, 121,141, 173,194, 209 Soldatov, Andrei, 23, 98-99, 112 Soviet Union, 1-2, 7,12-13,17, 19, 31-33, 36, 39, 54, 63-64, 67, 70,72, 79, 97-98, 101,105,118, 136-137, 139, 144, 164, 169-170, 172,176,179-181, 194, 209 Sri Lanka, 190 Stepashin, Sergei, 42, 99 Sweden, 11, 27,136, 140,142-143, 206, 208 Syria, 65, 88-89, 134,169, 180-187, 190-191, 193, 199, 203, 212-213, 215 Szymański, Piotr, 162-163, 208, 215 Tajikistan, 33-34, 64, 168, 171, 175, 177, 189 Thorton, Rod, 76, 93 Thorun, Christian, 17, 22, 29 Transnistria, 34-36, 38 Treisman, Daniel, 22-23, 28 Tsygankov, Andrei P., 1,18, 22-23, 29, 65, 215 Turkey, 64, 89, 133,182,190, 212 Turkmenistan, 55, 67, 174,189 2008 Russia-Georgia War, 20, 44, 52, 62-63, 67, 73, 75, 78, 93-94, 221 2008 Russia-Georgia War (continued), 107, 110,120-121, 133,142,146, 157, 204 See also Abkhazia See also South Ossetia Ukraine, 1-2, 13, 22, 24, 28, 34-36, 49, 52, 56-58, 62-64, 67, 70, 80, 84, 86-87, 108, 114, 118, 123-125,127-128, 130, 134, 139-141,146-147, 149,155, 158, 163-165,188, 198, 200, 203-204, 208-210 Donbass rebellion, 53, 59-61, 82, 100,126, 137, 148,150-154, 156-157, 159-160, 187, 197 improvement in armed forces since 2014, 159 Naftogaz, 54 Orange Revolution of 2004-2005, 55, 171 Russian invasion of, 53,196 See also
Crimea See also cyber warfare unipolarity, 2, 7 United Kingdom, 7, 26, 61,104, 113, 126-127, 143, 168-169, 180, 201, 210-211 United Nations, 16, 34, 38,164, 177, 181 United Russia party, 46, 48, 198 United States, 21, 33, 46, 50, 59, 61, 69, 71, 81, 83, 90, 100-101, 103-105, 109, 116-117, 120, 122, 127-128, 130, 143, 156, 160, 167, 170, 172-173, 176, 182-183, 187, 193, 198-199, 201-202, 206, 209-213 Uzbekistan, 64, 171, 174, 177, 188-189
222 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Van Herpen, Marcel H., 17, 22-23, 29, 103, 106-107, 112-113, 201, 207, 215 Vogler, Sarah, 114, 118-119, 124, 132-134 Waltz, Kenneth, 4, 7-8, 25-26 Yanukovich, Viktor, 53, 55-57, 63, 124, 149, 197 Yuschenko, Viktor, 55 Yeltsin, Boris, 31-32, 46, 63-64, 71 Zyuganov, Gennady, 41
Table of Contents List of Tables..........................................................................................ix Acknowledgments................................................................................ xi Chapter 1: Theories of Russian Foreign Policy.................................... 1 Chapter 2: Russia’s Post-Soviet Wars, Aggressions, and Interventions..................................................................... 31 Chapter 3: Russia’s Efforts to Rebuild Its Armed Forces for the Future................................................................................. 69 Chapter 4: Russia’s Nonconventional Assets..................................... 97 Chapter 5: Cyber Warfare................................................................. 115 Chapter 6: The Continuing Russian Threat to the Baltic Nations and Eastern Europe............................................................135 Chapter 7: Russian Actions in Central Asia and the Middle East................................................................................... 167 Chapter 8: Conclusion........................................................................ 193 Index.................................................................................................... 217 About the Author................................................................................ 223 Cambria Rapid Communications in Conflict and Security (RCCS) Series...................................................................................... 225
Index Afghanistan, 33-34, 39, 43, 72, 81, 116, 158,168-170, 175-176, 178, 188, 190, 210 Al-Assad, Bashar, 169,181 Al-Qaeda, 42, 46,182 Arab Spring, 81, 100,181, 188 Armenia, 32-33, 64, 108, 171-172, 174-175, 188 Azerbaijan, 32-33, 64, 171-172, 175, 188 asymmetrical warfare, 115-118, 147, 201, 203, 205 See also cyber warfare See also hybrid warfare Baltic nations, 61,108,119, 135-150, 157-160,162-163, 175, 196, 198, 200-201, 203, 205-209, 213 Bārties, Charles K., 22, 57-58, 68, 81, 94 Belarus, 56, 64, 70, 142, 147-149, 151, 153,158-160, 164, 171, 174, 188, 190, 203 Beslan school siege, 13,19, 47, 74 bipolarity, 2 Bogdanov, S.A., 117 Bryce-Rogers, Athena, 67, 75, 93-94 Caucasus, 3, 23-24, 39-40, 42, 44, 46, 49-50, 52, 65, 67, 167, 173, 188, 196, 203, 211-212, 216 Central Asia, 54, 65,108,130, 167-171, 173-176, 178, 180, Central Asia (continued), 186-187, 203, 210-211 Charap, Samuel, 18, 22-23, 62, 64, 68, 189-190 Chechnya, 24, 29, 39-47, 62-63, 65, 73, 81, 117, 152, 172, 177, 190 Chekinov, Co. S.G., 117,132 Chernoymyrdin, Viktor, 42 China, 7, 16, 21, 72, 90, 122, . 3-174, 176-179, 187, BB 189-190, 210-211, 225 Cohen, Ariel, 65, 67, 94, 211, 216 Cold War, 2-3, 64-65, 136, 138,142, 169, 176, 180, 200, 209, 211 Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO), 64,171 color revolutions, 18, 101-102, 105, 112, 167, 169-172, 183, 188, 190 Colton, Timothy J., 18, 22, 29, 68, 132, 164-165, 190, 215 Connell, Michael, 114,118-119, 124, 132-134 Cooper, Julian, 85, 92, 94-96 Crimea, 2-3, 24, 28, 53-54, 56-61, 68, 70, 80, 82, 95, 100, 125-126, 134, 137,139, 141-143, 148, 150-152, 154-157,
159-161, 164-165, 189, 193, 195, 197, 199, 204, 209-210 cyber warfare, 20, 29, 51, 60, 109-111, 114-115, 118-127, 130, 132-134, 142, 144-146, 150,154, 158, 201, 204, 213
218 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars cyber warfare (continued) See also asymmetrical warfare See also hybrid warfare Dagestan, 42, 44 Dawisha, Karen, 96,112,114 Deibert, Ronald J., 123,133 Denmark, 142 domestic factory theory, 1-4, 8-9, 11-13,16, 26, 40, 46, 49, 63, 96, 120-121, 129-130, 140-141, 144, 146, 169, 173, 194, 198, 203, 209 Dreyer, John R., 4, 6, 12, 25-26, 28 Dubrovka Theater siege, 46 Dudayev, Dzhokhar, 40 Eastern Europe, 2, 23-24, 28, 64, 70, 103,108,113,126, 128,130,135, 138,147, 149-150, 153, 157-158, 160,162-163, 165, 168, 170, 175, 186, 188, 193, 196, 198-200, 203, 208-209, 213, 215-216 Estonia, 64, 118-120, 132, 135-137, 141, 144, 146, 208 Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), 64,174 European Union (EU), 27, 38, 51, 56, 58-59, 61, 138-139,147,156, 158, 160, 196-197, 200, 207, 209 France, 7, 33, 108-109,113 Gazprom, 54-55, 144, 154 Georgia, 2, 20, 23-24, 42, 44, 53, 57-58, 62-64, 66-67, 73, 75, 78, 81, 93-94, 107, 110, 118,120, 122-123, 127, 130, 133, 142, 146, 157, 171-173, 175, 187-188, 196-197, 204 Abkhazia, 36-38, 49-52, 65,105, 121 Georgia (continued) South Ossetia, 36-38, 49-52, 65, 105, 121, 152 Gerasimov Doctrine, 20, 68, 81, 85, 94-95, 141 Gerasimov, Valery, 20, 24, 81, 171 Germany, 7, 61, 67,143 Giles, Keir, 23, 67,113,132, 134, 189 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 34, 39, 71, 170, 176 Gorenburg, Dmitry, 64, 87, 94-95 Gotkowska, Justyna, 162-163, 208, 215 Grachev, Pavel, 40, 72 Gvosdev, Nikolas, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 hard power versus soft power, 2, 5, 23, 25, 97,101-107, 112, 145, 163,175,199 hegemony, 7-8, 17, 25-26, 28, 32, 44, 128, 147, 158, 187, 200, 204,
211-212 Helmus, Todd, 113, 163, 206-207, 215 Hobbes, Thomas, 4, 25 Hoffman, Frank, 116,131 Hopf, Ted, 33, 64 hybrid warfare, 2-3, 23-24, 82, 90, 115-118, 121, 127, 130-132, 134, 157-159, 203-204, 210, 215 See also asymmetrical warfare See also cyber warfare India, 89, 96, 169-170,174, 177, 179, 190, 210-211 Ingushetia, 42 Iran, 174-175,184,190, 212-213 Islamic State, 182-187, 213 Ivanov, Sergey, 99
Index Japan, 7, 90 Jesse, Neal G., 4, 6,12, 25-28, 226 Kanét, Roger E., 31, 64 Kazakhstan, 39, 56, 70, 108, 148, 168,171-172, 174-175, 177, 189 Keohane, Robert 0„ 6, 25 Kofman, Michael, 82, 94,118, 132, 157, 164-165, 190-191,195, 199, 215 Kokoshin, Andrey, 118 Kozyrev, Andrei, 171 Kyrgyzstan, 120, 171, 174-175, 177, 189 Latvia, 134-137, 140, 142-144, 146, 162-163, 208 Lavrov, Anton, 66 Lavrov, Sergei, 9, 66, 171, 175, 189 Lithuania, 120, 135, 137, 142-144, 146, 162, 208 Lukashenko, Aiexsandr, 148 Marsh, Christopher, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 Mastriano, Doug, 24,158,162-163, 165, 205-206, 208, 215-216 McDermott, Roger N., 23, 57-58, 61, 67-68, 76, 82, 93-95 McNabb, David E., 22, 66-68, 79, 92-94,133-134, 139, 162-163, 189 Medvedev, Dmitry, 9,13, 20, 48-50, 75, 77-79, 87, 93,100, 102-103, 198 Middle East, 39, 167, 180, 187, 190, 212-213 Miller, Chris, 90, 96 Minsk Group, 33 Moldova, 34-35, 38, 64-65, 188 Monaghan, Andrew, 17, 22-23, 28, 219 Monaghan, Andrew (continued), 118, 131-132, 215 Mongolia, 190 Nagorno-Karabakh, 32, 35 near abroad, 23, 31-32, 52, 64,108, 168, 170-174, 186,188-189, 194, 196, 215 NATO, 17, 21, 49, 52, 58, 60-61, 70, 73, 75, 95,103, 114, 117, 120, 128, 130, 134-136, 140, 142-143, 146-147, 150-151, 158-160, 162, 164, 173, 177, 193, 196-200, 205, 209, 215 Baltic Intelligence Center, 206 commitment to the Baltic nations, 138-139 Enhanced Forward Presence, 139, 208 Rapid Action Plan, 210 Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, 210 Nye, Joseph S.,Jr., 25, 101-102, 112, 145 Oliker, Olga, 22, 188, 199-200, 215 OPEC, 83 Poland, 136, 139-140, 142-143, 147-149,151, 158,
160,163, 198, 200, 208 post-Soviet conflicts, 33, 35 Primakov, Yevgeny, 99, 173, 177 Putin, Vladimir, 9, 13, 22, 45, 55, 63, 66-68, 92-94, 130, 133-134, 162-163, 171, 189 realism, 2-5, 7-9, 11-13, 32, 44, 52, 58, 60, 62-63,120-121, 141, 160-161, 173, 180, 188, 193-196, 199-200, 203-205, 209, 211
220 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Renz, Bettina, 76-77, 92-93, 112, 132,134 Rochlitz, Michael, 23, 98-99,112 Rosneft, 9 Rothstein, Robert L., 6, 25 Russian foreign policy, 1, 4, 52, 61, 64-67, 69,100-101, 157, 164, 167,172-173,183, 186, 189, 194, 211 as minority community in other nations, 31-34, 36, 38, 44, 55, 62, 108, 119-121, 127, 137, 140-141, 143, 145, 148-149, 158,160, 162, 195-197, 203, 205, 209 bases in Syria, 185 corruption in defense funding, 74 decline of military in the 1990s, 71 Doctrine of Information Security, 24, 111 economic pressure on the Baltic nations, 144 economic pressure on the East European nations, 153 Eurasian power, 7 Federal Security Service (FSB), 47-48, 98-99, 110 force posturing, 142, 150 Foreign Policy Concept, 13, 15-16, 24, 28, 139, 147, 162-163, 168, 170-171, 178, 188, 190 goal of greater access to the Baltic Sea, 138-140, 142-143, 162-163, 208, 215 great power seeking, 3, 7-8, 17-18, 21-23, 25-26, 28-29, 32, 43, 62, 94, 112, 138, 147, 176, 199-200 Russian foreign policy (continued) GRU, 99,126,129 information campaigns, 103, 107-110, 115, 124-125, 127-130, 134, 145, 149, 154-156, 159,175, 204-205, 207-208, 213, 215 interference in American 2016 election, 127-128, 130 maskirovka, 154 military exercises with China, 179, 190 Military poor performance in Chechnya, 43 Ministry of Defense, 9,16, 20-21, 29, 51, 70-72, 79-80, 86, 94, 99, 104, 110, 122, 184 novorossiya, 156 reform of the military, 73, 75, 79 State Armament Plan 2015, 78 State Armament Plan 2020, 78-80, 85-89 State Armament Plan 2027, 85-90 Security Council, 9,16, 50, 118,
177, 181 use of propaganda, 2, 23, 48, 81,91,97,106-109,111-113, 115, 124, 127,130,137,141, 144-145, 150, 154-156, 160, 197, 199, 201-202, 204, 206-208, 213, 215 Western sanctions due to 2014 intervention in Ukraine, 80, 82, 84, 86, 90, 95-96, 198 Russian Empire, 2, 39, 54, 59, 101, 136, 154-156, 189,211 Saakashvili, Mikheil, 49 security dilemma, 5 Serdyukov, Anatoly, 19
Index Sergeyev, Igor, 72 Sergunin, Alexander, 17, 22, 29 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), 177-179, 190 Shevtsova, Lilia, 18, 29 Shoigu, Sergei, 18, 79 siloviki, 2, 9, 23, 72-73, 79, 90, 94, 97-100, 103, ПО, 112, 117, 144, 195, 199, 209 small states, 4, 6, 25-28 social constructivism, 3-4,10-11, 13, 26-27, 32, 44, 62, 121,141, 173,194, 209 Soldatov, Andrei, 23, 98-99, 112 Soviet Union, 1-2, 7,12-13,17, 19, 31-33, 36, 39, 54, 63-64, 67, 70,72, 79, 97-98, 101,105,118, 136-137, 139, 144, 164, 169-170, 172,176,179-181, 194, 209 Sri Lanka, 190 Stepashin, Sergei, 42, 99 Sweden, 11, 27,136, 140,142-143, 206, 208 Syria, 65, 88-89, 134,169, 180-187, 190-191, 193, 199, 203, 212-213, 215 Szymański, Piotr, 162-163, 208, 215 Tajikistan, 33-34, 64, 168, 171, 175, 177, 189 Thorton, Rod, 76, 93 Thorun, Christian, 17, 22, 29 Transnistria, 34-36, 38 Treisman, Daniel, 22-23, 28 Tsygankov, Andrei P., 1,18, 22-23, 29, 65, 215 Turkey, 64, 89, 133,182,190, 212 Turkmenistan, 55, 67, 174,189 2008 Russia-Georgia War, 20, 44, 52, 62-63, 67, 73, 75, 78, 93-94, 221 2008 Russia-Georgia War (continued), 107, 110,120-121, 133,142,146, 157, 204 See also Abkhazia See also South Ossetia Ukraine, 1-2, 13, 22, 24, 28, 34-36, 49, 52, 56-58, 62-64, 67, 70, 80, 84, 86-87, 108, 114, 118, 123-125,127-128, 130, 134, 139-141,146-147, 149,155, 158, 163-165,188, 198, 200, 203-204, 208-210 Donbass rebellion, 53, 59-61, 82, 100,126, 137, 148,150-154, 156-157, 159-160, 187, 197 improvement in armed forces since 2014, 159 Naftogaz, 54 Orange Revolution of 2004-2005, 55, 171 Russian invasion of, 53,196 See also
Crimea See also cyber warfare unipolarity, 2, 7 United Kingdom, 7, 26, 61,104, 113, 126-127, 143, 168-169, 180, 201, 210-211 United Nations, 16, 34, 38,164, 177, 181 United Russia party, 46, 48, 198 United States, 21, 33, 46, 50, 59, 61, 69, 71, 81, 83, 90, 100-101, 103-105, 109, 116-117, 120, 122, 127-128, 130, 143, 156, 160, 167, 170, 172-173, 176, 182-183, 187, 193, 198-199, 201-202, 206, 209-213 Uzbekistan, 64, 171, 174, 177, 188-189
222 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Van Herpen, Marcel H., 17, 22-23, 29, 103, 106-107, 112-113, 201, 207, 215 Vogler, Sarah, 114, 118-119, 124, 132-134 Waltz, Kenneth, 4, 7-8, 25-26 Yanukovich, Viktor, 53, 55-57, 63, 124, 149, 197 Yuschenko, Viktor, 55 Yeltsin, Boris, 31-32, 46, 63-64, 71 Zyuganov, Gennady, 41
Table of Contents List of Tables..........................................................................................ix Acknowledgments................................................................................ xi Chapter 1: Theories of Russian Foreign Policy.................................... 1 Chapter 2: Russia’s Post-Soviet Wars, Aggressions, and Interventions..................................................................... 31 Chapter 3: Russia’s Efforts to Rebuild Its Armed Forces for the Future................................................................................. 69 Chapter 4: Russia’s Nonconventional Assets..................................... 97 Chapter 5: Cyber Warfare................................................................. 115 Chapter 6: The Continuing Russian Threat to the Baltic Nations and Eastern Europe............................................................135 Chapter 7: Russian Actions in Central Asia and the Middle East................................................................................... 167 Chapter 8: Conclusion........................................................................ 193 Index.................................................................................................... 217 About the Author................................................................................ 223 Cambria Rapid Communications in Conflict and Security (RCCS) Series...................................................................................... 225
Index Afghanistan, 33-34, 39, 43, 72, 81, 116, 158,168-170, 175-176, 178, 188, 190, 210 Al-Assad, Bashar, 169,181 Al-Qaeda, 42, 46,182 Arab Spring, 81, 100,181, 188 Armenia, 32-33, 64, 108, 171-172, 174-175, 188 Azerbaijan, 32-33, 64, 171-172, 175, 188 asymmetrical warfare, 115-118, 147, 201, 203, 205 See also cyber warfare See also hybrid warfare Baltic nations, 61,108,119, 135-150, 157-160,162-163, 175, 196, 198, 200-201, 203, 205-209, 213 Bārties, Charles K., 22, 57-58, 68, 81, 94 Belarus, 56, 64, 70, 142, 147-149, 151, 153,158-160, 164, 171, 174, 188, 190, 203 Beslan school siege, 13,19, 47, 74 bipolarity, 2 Bogdanov, S.A., 117 Bryce-Rogers, Athena, 67, 75, 93-94 Caucasus, 3, 23-24, 39-40, 42, 44, 46, 49-50, 52, 65, 67, 167, 173, 188, 196, 203, 211-212, 216 Central Asia, 54, 65,108,130, 167-171, 173-176, 178, 180, Central Asia (continued), 186-187, 203, 210-211 Charap, Samuel, 18, 22-23, 62, 64, 68, 189-190 Chechnya, 24, 29, 39-47, 62-63, 65, 73, 81, 117, 152, 172, 177, 190 Chekinov, Co. S.G., 117,132 Chernoymyrdin, Viktor, 42 China, 7, 16, 21, 72, 90, 122, . 3-174, 176-179, 187, BB 189-190, 210-211, 225 Cohen, Ariel, 65, 67, 94, 211, 216 Cold War, 2-3, 64-65, 136, 138,142, 169, 176, 180, 200, 209, 211 Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO), 64,171 color revolutions, 18, 101-102, 105, 112, 167, 169-172, 183, 188, 190 Colton, Timothy J., 18, 22, 29, 68, 132, 164-165, 190, 215 Connell, Michael, 114,118-119, 124, 132-134 Cooper, Julian, 85, 92, 94-96 Crimea, 2-3, 24, 28, 53-54, 56-61, 68, 70, 80, 82, 95, 100, 125-126, 134, 137,139, 141-143, 148, 150-152, 154-157,
159-161, 164-165, 189, 193, 195, 197, 199, 204, 209-210 cyber warfare, 20, 29, 51, 60, 109-111, 114-115, 118-127, 130, 132-134, 142, 144-146, 150,154, 158, 201, 204, 213
218 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars cyber warfare (continued) See also asymmetrical warfare See also hybrid warfare Dagestan, 42, 44 Dawisha, Karen, 96,112,114 Deibert, Ronald J., 123,133 Denmark, 142 domestic factory theory, 1-4, 8-9, 11-13,16, 26, 40, 46, 49, 63, 96, 120-121, 129-130, 140-141, 144, 146, 169, 173, 194, 198, 203, 209 Dreyer, John R., 4, 6, 12, 25-26, 28 Dubrovka Theater siege, 46 Dudayev, Dzhokhar, 40 Eastern Europe, 2, 23-24, 28, 64, 70, 103,108,113,126, 128,130,135, 138,147, 149-150, 153, 157-158, 160,162-163, 165, 168, 170, 175, 186, 188, 193, 196, 198-200, 203, 208-209, 213, 215-216 Estonia, 64, 118-120, 132, 135-137, 141, 144, 146, 208 Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), 64,174 European Union (EU), 27, 38, 51, 56, 58-59, 61, 138-139,147,156, 158, 160, 196-197, 200, 207, 209 France, 7, 33, 108-109,113 Gazprom, 54-55, 144, 154 Georgia, 2, 20, 23-24, 42, 44, 53, 57-58, 62-64, 66-67, 73, 75, 78, 81, 93-94, 107, 110, 118,120, 122-123, 127, 130, 133, 142, 146, 157, 171-173, 175, 187-188, 196-197, 204 Abkhazia, 36-38, 49-52, 65,105, 121 Georgia (continued) South Ossetia, 36-38, 49-52, 65, 105, 121, 152 Gerasimov Doctrine, 20, 68, 81, 85, 94-95, 141 Gerasimov, Valery, 20, 24, 81, 171 Germany, 7, 61, 67,143 Giles, Keir, 23, 67,113,132, 134, 189 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 34, 39, 71, 170, 176 Gorenburg, Dmitry, 64, 87, 94-95 Gotkowska, Justyna, 162-163, 208, 215 Grachev, Pavel, 40, 72 Gvosdev, Nikolas, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 hard power versus soft power, 2, 5, 23, 25, 97,101-107, 112, 145, 163,175,199 hegemony, 7-8, 17, 25-26, 28, 32, 44, 128, 147, 158, 187, 200, 204,
211-212 Helmus, Todd, 113, 163, 206-207, 215 Hobbes, Thomas, 4, 25 Hoffman, Frank, 116,131 Hopf, Ted, 33, 64 hybrid warfare, 2-3, 23-24, 82, 90, 115-118, 121, 127, 130-132, 134, 157-159, 203-204, 210, 215 See also asymmetrical warfare See also cyber warfare India, 89, 96, 169-170,174, 177, 179, 190, 210-211 Ingushetia, 42 Iran, 174-175,184,190, 212-213 Islamic State, 182-187, 213 Ivanov, Sergey, 99
Index Japan, 7, 90 Jesse, Neal G., 4, 6,12, 25-28, 226 Kanét, Roger E., 31, 64 Kazakhstan, 39, 56, 70, 108, 148, 168,171-172, 174-175, 177, 189 Keohane, Robert 0„ 6, 25 Kofman, Michael, 82, 94,118, 132, 157, 164-165, 190-191,195, 199, 215 Kokoshin, Andrey, 118 Kozyrev, Andrei, 171 Kyrgyzstan, 120, 171, 174-175, 177, 189 Latvia, 134-137, 140, 142-144, 146, 162-163, 208 Lavrov, Anton, 66 Lavrov, Sergei, 9, 66, 171, 175, 189 Lithuania, 120, 135, 137, 142-144, 146, 162, 208 Lukashenko, Aiexsandr, 148 Marsh, Christopher, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 Mastriano, Doug, 24,158,162-163, 165, 205-206, 208, 215-216 McDermott, Roger N., 23, 57-58, 61, 67-68, 76, 82, 93-95 McNabb, David E., 22, 66-68, 79, 92-94,133-134, 139, 162-163, 189 Medvedev, Dmitry, 9,13, 20, 48-50, 75, 77-79, 87, 93,100, 102-103, 198 Middle East, 39, 167, 180, 187, 190, 212-213 Miller, Chris, 90, 96 Minsk Group, 33 Moldova, 34-35, 38, 64-65, 188 Monaghan, Andrew, 17, 22-23, 28, 219 Monaghan, Andrew (continued), 118, 131-132, 215 Mongolia, 190 Nagorno-Karabakh, 32, 35 near abroad, 23, 31-32, 52, 64,108, 168, 170-174, 186,188-189, 194, 196, 215 NATO, 17, 21, 49, 52, 58, 60-61, 70, 73, 75, 95,103, 114, 117, 120, 128, 130, 134-136, 140, 142-143, 146-147, 150-151, 158-160, 162, 164, 173, 177, 193, 196-200, 205, 209, 215 Baltic Intelligence Center, 206 commitment to the Baltic nations, 138-139 Enhanced Forward Presence, 139, 208 Rapid Action Plan, 210 Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, 210 Nye, Joseph S.,Jr., 25, 101-102, 112, 145 Oliker, Olga, 22, 188, 199-200, 215 OPEC, 83 Poland, 136, 139-140, 142-143, 147-149,151, 158,
160,163, 198, 200, 208 post-Soviet conflicts, 33, 35 Primakov, Yevgeny, 99, 173, 177 Putin, Vladimir, 9, 13, 22, 45, 55, 63, 66-68, 92-94, 130, 133-134, 162-163, 171, 189 realism, 2-5, 7-9, 11-13, 32, 44, 52, 58, 60, 62-63,120-121, 141, 160-161, 173, 180, 188, 193-196, 199-200, 203-205, 209, 211
220 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Renz, Bettina, 76-77, 92-93, 112, 132,134 Rochlitz, Michael, 23, 98-99,112 Rosneft, 9 Rothstein, Robert L., 6, 25 Russian foreign policy, 1, 4, 52, 61, 64-67, 69,100-101, 157, 164, 167,172-173,183, 186, 189, 194, 211 as minority community in other nations, 31-34, 36, 38, 44, 55, 62, 108, 119-121, 127, 137, 140-141, 143, 145, 148-149, 158,160, 162, 195-197, 203, 205, 209 bases in Syria, 185 corruption in defense funding, 74 decline of military in the 1990s, 71 Doctrine of Information Security, 24, 111 economic pressure on the Baltic nations, 144 economic pressure on the East European nations, 153 Eurasian power, 7 Federal Security Service (FSB), 47-48, 98-99, 110 force posturing, 142, 150 Foreign Policy Concept, 13, 15-16, 24, 28, 139, 147, 162-163, 168, 170-171, 178, 188, 190 goal of greater access to the Baltic Sea, 138-140, 142-143, 162-163, 208, 215 great power seeking, 3, 7-8, 17-18, 21-23, 25-26, 28-29, 32, 43, 62, 94, 112, 138, 147, 176, 199-200 Russian foreign policy (continued) GRU, 99,126,129 information campaigns, 103, 107-110, 115, 124-125, 127-130, 134, 145, 149, 154-156, 159,175, 204-205, 207-208, 213, 215 interference in American 2016 election, 127-128, 130 maskirovka, 154 military exercises with China, 179, 190 Military poor performance in Chechnya, 43 Ministry of Defense, 9,16, 20-21, 29, 51, 70-72, 79-80, 86, 94, 99, 104, 110, 122, 184 novorossiya, 156 reform of the military, 73, 75, 79 State Armament Plan 2015, 78 State Armament Plan 2020, 78-80, 85-89 State Armament Plan 2027, 85-90 Security Council, 9,16, 50, 118,
177, 181 use of propaganda, 2, 23, 48, 81,91,97,106-109,111-113, 115, 124, 127,130,137,141, 144-145, 150, 154-156, 160, 197, 199, 201-202, 204, 206-208, 213, 215 Western sanctions due to 2014 intervention in Ukraine, 80, 82, 84, 86, 90, 95-96, 198 Russian Empire, 2, 39, 54, 59, 101, 136, 154-156, 189,211 Saakashvili, Mikheil, 49 security dilemma, 5 Serdyukov, Anatoly, 19
Index Sergeyev, Igor, 72 Sergunin, Alexander, 17, 22, 29 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), 177-179, 190 Shevtsova, Lilia, 18, 29 Shoigu, Sergei, 18, 79 siloviki, 2, 9, 23, 72-73, 79, 90, 94, 97-100, 103, ПО, 112, 117, 144, 195, 199, 209 small states, 4, 6, 25-28 social constructivism, 3-4,10-11, 13, 26-27, 32, 44, 62, 121,141, 173,194, 209 Soldatov, Andrei, 23, 98-99, 112 Soviet Union, 1-2, 7,12-13,17, 19, 31-33, 36, 39, 54, 63-64, 67, 70,72, 79, 97-98, 101,105,118, 136-137, 139, 144, 164, 169-170, 172,176,179-181, 194, 209 Sri Lanka, 190 Stepashin, Sergei, 42, 99 Sweden, 11, 27,136, 140,142-143, 206, 208 Syria, 65, 88-89, 134,169, 180-187, 190-191, 193, 199, 203, 212-213, 215 Szymański, Piotr, 162-163, 208, 215 Tajikistan, 33-34, 64, 168, 171, 175, 177, 189 Thorton, Rod, 76, 93 Thorun, Christian, 17, 22, 29 Transnistria, 34-36, 38 Treisman, Daniel, 22-23, 28 Tsygankov, Andrei P., 1,18, 22-23, 29, 65, 215 Turkey, 64, 89, 133,182,190, 212 Turkmenistan, 55, 67, 174,189 2008 Russia-Georgia War, 20, 44, 52, 62-63, 67, 73, 75, 78, 93-94, 221 2008 Russia-Georgia War (continued), 107, 110,120-121, 133,142,146, 157, 204 See also Abkhazia See also South Ossetia Ukraine, 1-2, 13, 22, 24, 28, 34-36, 49, 52, 56-58, 62-64, 67, 70, 80, 84, 86-87, 108, 114, 118, 123-125,127-128, 130, 134, 139-141,146-147, 149,155, 158, 163-165,188, 198, 200, 203-204, 208-210 Donbass rebellion, 53, 59-61, 82, 100,126, 137, 148,150-154, 156-157, 159-160, 187, 197 improvement in armed forces since 2014, 159 Naftogaz, 54 Orange Revolution of 2004-2005, 55, 171 Russian invasion of, 53,196 See also
Crimea See also cyber warfare unipolarity, 2, 7 United Kingdom, 7, 26, 61,104, 113, 126-127, 143, 168-169, 180, 201, 210-211 United Nations, 16, 34, 38,164, 177, 181 United Russia party, 46, 48, 198 United States, 21, 33, 46, 50, 59, 61, 69, 71, 81, 83, 90, 100-101, 103-105, 109, 116-117, 120, 122, 127-128, 130, 143, 156, 160, 167, 170, 172-173, 176, 182-183, 187, 193, 198-199, 201-202, 206, 209-213 Uzbekistan, 64, 171, 174, 177, 188-189
222 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Van Herpen, Marcel H., 17, 22-23, 29, 103, 106-107, 112-113, 201, 207, 215 Vogler, Sarah, 114, 118-119, 124, 132-134 Waltz, Kenneth, 4, 7-8, 25-26 Yanukovich, Viktor, 53, 55-57, 63, 124, 149, 197 Yuschenko, Viktor, 55 Yeltsin, Boris, 31-32, 46, 63-64, 71 Zyuganov, Gennady, 41
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Table of Contents List of Tables.ix Acknowledgments. xi Chapter 1: Theories of Russian Foreign Policy. 1 Chapter 2: Russia’s Post-Soviet Wars, Aggressions, and Interventions. 31 Chapter 3: Russia’s Efforts to Rebuild Its Armed Forces for the Future. 69 Chapter 4: Russia’s Nonconventional Assets. 97 Chapter 5: Cyber Warfare. 115 Chapter 6: The Continuing Russian Threat to the Baltic Nations and Eastern Europe.135 Chapter 7: Russian Actions in Central Asia and the Middle East. 167 Chapter 8: Conclusion. 193 Index. 217 About the Author. 223 Cambria Rapid Communications in Conflict and Security (RCCS) Series. 225
Index Afghanistan, 33-34, 39, 43, 72, 81, 116, 158,168-170, 175-176, 178, 188, 190, 210 Al-Assad, Bashar, 169,181 Al-Qaeda, 42, 46,182 Arab Spring, 81, 100,181, 188 Armenia, 32-33, 64, 108, 171-172, 174-175, 188 Azerbaijan, 32-33, 64, 171-172, 175, 188 asymmetrical warfare, 115-118, 147, 201, 203, 205 See also cyber warfare See also hybrid warfare Baltic nations, 61,108,119, 135-150, 157-160,162-163, 175, 196, 198, 200-201, 203, 205-209, 213 Bārties, Charles K., 22, 57-58, 68, 81, 94 Belarus, 56, 64, 70, 142, 147-149, 151, 153,158-160, 164, 171, 174, 188, 190, 203 Beslan school siege, 13,19, 47, 74 bipolarity, 2 Bogdanov, S.A., 117 Bryce-Rogers, Athena, 67, 75, 93-94 Caucasus, 3, 23-24, 39-40, 42, 44, 46, 49-50, 52, 65, 67, 167, 173, 188, 196, 203, 211-212, 216 Central Asia, 54, 65,108,130, 167-171, 173-176, 178, 180, Central Asia (continued), 186-187, 203, 210-211 Charap, Samuel, 18, 22-23, 62, 64, 68, 189-190 Chechnya, 24, 29, 39-47, 62-63, 65, 73, 81, 117, 152, 172, 177, 190 Chekinov, Co. S.G., 117,132 Chernoymyrdin, Viktor, 42 China, 7, 16, 21, 72, 90, 122, . 3-174, 176-179, 187, BB 189-190, 210-211, 225 Cohen, Ariel, 65, 67, 94, 211, 216 Cold War, 2-3, 64-65, 136, 138,142, 169, 176, 180, 200, 209, 211 Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO), 64,171 color revolutions, 18, 101-102, 105, 112, 167, 169-172, 183, 188, 190 Colton, Timothy J., 18, 22, 29, 68, 132, 164-165, 190, 215 Connell, Michael, 114,118-119, 124, 132-134 Cooper, Julian, 85, 92, 94-96 Crimea, 2-3, 24, 28, 53-54, 56-61, 68, 70, 80, 82, 95, 100, 125-126, 134, 137,139, 141-143, 148, 150-152, 154-157,
159-161, 164-165, 189, 193, 195, 197, 199, 204, 209-210 cyber warfare, 20, 29, 51, 60, 109-111, 114-115, 118-127, 130, 132-134, 142, 144-146, 150,154, 158, 201, 204, 213
218 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars cyber warfare (continued) See also asymmetrical warfare See also hybrid warfare Dagestan, 42, 44 Dawisha, Karen, 96,112,114 Deibert, Ronald J., 123,133 Denmark, 142 domestic factory theory, 1-4, 8-9, 11-13,16, 26, 40, 46, 49, 63, 96, 120-121, 129-130, 140-141, 144, 146, 169, 173, 194, 198, 203, 209 Dreyer, John R., 4, 6, 12, 25-26, 28 Dubrovka Theater siege, 46 Dudayev, Dzhokhar, 40 Eastern Europe, 2, 23-24, 28, 64, 70, 103,108,113,126, 128,130,135, 138,147, 149-150, 153, 157-158, 160,162-163, 165, 168, 170, 175, 186, 188, 193, 196, 198-200, 203, 208-209, 213, 215-216 Estonia, 64, 118-120, 132, 135-137, 141, 144, 146, 208 Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), 64,174 European Union (EU), 27, 38, 51, 56, 58-59, 61, 138-139,147,156, 158, 160, 196-197, 200, 207, 209 France, 7, 33, 108-109,113 Gazprom, 54-55, 144, 154 Georgia, 2, 20, 23-24, 42, 44, 53, 57-58, 62-64, 66-67, 73, 75, 78, 81, 93-94, 107, 110, 118,120, 122-123, 127, 130, 133, 142, 146, 157, 171-173, 175, 187-188, 196-197, 204 Abkhazia, 36-38, 49-52, 65,105, 121 Georgia (continued) South Ossetia, 36-38, 49-52, 65, 105, 121, 152 Gerasimov Doctrine, 20, 68, 81, 85, 94-95, 141 Gerasimov, Valery, 20, 24, 81, 171 Germany, 7, 61, 67,143 Giles, Keir, 23, 67,113,132, 134, 189 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 34, 39, 71, 170, 176 Gorenburg, Dmitry, 64, 87, 94-95 Gotkowska, Justyna, 162-163, 208, 215 Grachev, Pavel, 40, 72 Gvosdev, Nikolas, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 hard power versus soft power, 2, 5, 23, 25, 97,101-107, 112, 145, 163,175,199 hegemony, 7-8, 17, 25-26, 28, 32, 44, 128, 147, 158, 187, 200, 204,
211-212 Helmus, Todd, 113, 163, 206-207, 215 Hobbes, Thomas, 4, 25 Hoffman, Frank, 116,131 Hopf, Ted, 33, 64 hybrid warfare, 2-3, 23-24, 82, 90, 115-118, 121, 127, 130-132, 134, 157-159, 203-204, 210, 215 See also asymmetrical warfare See also cyber warfare India, 89, 96, 169-170,174, 177, 179, 190, 210-211 Ingushetia, 42 Iran, 174-175,184,190, 212-213 Islamic State, 182-187, 213 Ivanov, Sergey, 99
Index Japan, 7, 90 Jesse, Neal G., 4, 6,12, 25-28, 226 Kanét, Roger E., 31, 64 Kazakhstan, 39, 56, 70, 108, 148, 168,171-172, 174-175, 177, 189 Keohane, Robert 0„ 6, 25 Kofman, Michael, 82, 94,118, 132, 157, 164-165, 190-191,195, 199, 215 Kokoshin, Andrey, 118 Kozyrev, Andrei, 171 Kyrgyzstan, 120, 171, 174-175, 177, 189 Latvia, 134-137, 140, 142-144, 146, 162-163, 208 Lavrov, Anton, 66 Lavrov, Sergei, 9, 66, 171, 175, 189 Lithuania, 120, 135, 137, 142-144, 146, 162, 208 Lukashenko, Aiexsandr, 148 Marsh, Christopher, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 Mastriano, Doug, 24,158,162-163, 165, 205-206, 208, 215-216 McDermott, Roger N., 23, 57-58, 61, 67-68, 76, 82, 93-95 McNabb, David E., 22, 66-68, 79, 92-94,133-134, 139, 162-163, 189 Medvedev, Dmitry, 9,13, 20, 48-50, 75, 77-79, 87, 93,100, 102-103, 198 Middle East, 39, 167, 180, 187, 190, 212-213 Miller, Chris, 90, 96 Minsk Group, 33 Moldova, 34-35, 38, 64-65, 188 Monaghan, Andrew, 17, 22-23, 28, 219 Monaghan, Andrew (continued), 118, 131-132, 215 Mongolia, 190 Nagorno-Karabakh, 32, 35 near abroad, 23, 31-32, 52, 64,108, 168, 170-174, 186,188-189, 194, 196, 215 NATO, 17, 21, 49, 52, 58, 60-61, 70, 73, 75, 95,103, 114, 117, 120, 128, 130, 134-136, 140, 142-143, 146-147, 150-151, 158-160, 162, 164, 173, 177, 193, 196-200, 205, 209, 215 Baltic Intelligence Center, 206 commitment to the Baltic nations, 138-139 Enhanced Forward Presence, 139, 208 Rapid Action Plan, 210 Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, 210 Nye, Joseph S.,Jr., 25, 101-102, 112, 145 Oliker, Olga, 22, 188, 199-200, 215 OPEC, 83 Poland, 136, 139-140, 142-143, 147-149,151, 158,
160,163, 198, 200, 208 post-Soviet conflicts, 33, 35 Primakov, Yevgeny, 99, 173, 177 Putin, Vladimir, 9, 13, 22, 45, 55, 63, 66-68, 92-94, 130, 133-134, 162-163, 171, 189 realism, 2-5, 7-9, 11-13, 32, 44, 52, 58, 60, 62-63,120-121, 141, 160-161, 173, 180, 188, 193-196, 199-200, 203-205, 209, 211
220 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Renz, Bettina, 76-77, 92-93, 112, 132,134 Rochlitz, Michael, 23, 98-99,112 Rosneft, 9 Rothstein, Robert L., 6, 25 Russian foreign policy, 1, 4, 52, 61, 64-67, 69,100-101, 157, 164, 167,172-173,183, 186, 189, 194, 211 as minority community in other nations, 31-34, 36, 38, 44, 55, 62, 108, 119-121, 127, 137, 140-141, 143, 145, 148-149, 158,160, 162, 195-197, 203, 205, 209 bases in Syria, 185 corruption in defense funding, 74 decline of military in the 1990s, 71 Doctrine of Information Security, 24, 111 economic pressure on the Baltic nations, 144 economic pressure on the East European nations, 153 Eurasian power, 7 Federal Security Service (FSB), 47-48, 98-99, 110 force posturing, 142, 150 Foreign Policy Concept, 13, 15-16, 24, 28, 139, 147, 162-163, 168, 170-171, 178, 188, 190 goal of greater access to the Baltic Sea, 138-140, 142-143, 162-163, 208, 215 great power seeking, 3, 7-8, 17-18, 21-23, 25-26, 28-29, 32, 43, 62, 94, 112, 138, 147, 176, 199-200 Russian foreign policy (continued) GRU, 99,126,129 information campaigns, 103, 107-110, 115, 124-125, 127-130, 134, 145, 149, 154-156, 159,175, 204-205, 207-208, 213, 215 interference in American 2016 election, 127-128, 130 maskirovka, 154 military exercises with China, 179, 190 Military poor performance in Chechnya, 43 Ministry of Defense, 9,16, 20-21, 29, 51, 70-72, 79-80, 86, 94, 99, 104, 110, 122, 184 novorossiya, 156 reform of the military, 73, 75, 79 State Armament Plan 2015, 78 State Armament Plan 2020, 78-80, 85-89 State Armament Plan 2027, 85-90 Security Council, 9,16, 50, 118,
177, 181 use of propaganda, 2, 23, 48, 81,91,97,106-109,111-113, 115, 124, 127,130,137,141, 144-145, 150, 154-156, 160, 197, 199, 201-202, 204, 206-208, 213, 215 Western sanctions due to 2014 intervention in Ukraine, 80, 82, 84, 86, 90, 95-96, 198 Russian Empire, 2, 39, 54, 59, 101, 136, 154-156, 189,211 Saakashvili, Mikheil, 49 security dilemma, 5 Serdyukov, Anatoly, 19
Index Sergeyev, Igor, 72 Sergunin, Alexander, 17, 22, 29 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), 177-179, 190 Shevtsova, Lilia, 18, 29 Shoigu, Sergei, 18, 79 siloviki, 2, 9, 23, 72-73, 79, 90, 94, 97-100, 103, ПО, 112, 117, 144, 195, 199, 209 small states, 4, 6, 25-28 social constructivism, 3-4,10-11, 13, 26-27, 32, 44, 62, 121,141, 173,194, 209 Soldatov, Andrei, 23, 98-99, 112 Soviet Union, 1-2, 7,12-13,17, 19, 31-33, 36, 39, 54, 63-64, 67, 70,72, 79, 97-98, 101,105,118, 136-137, 139, 144, 164, 169-170, 172,176,179-181, 194, 209 Sri Lanka, 190 Stepashin, Sergei, 42, 99 Sweden, 11, 27,136, 140,142-143, 206, 208 Syria, 65, 88-89, 134,169, 180-187, 190-191, 193, 199, 203, 212-213, 215 Szymański, Piotr, 162-163, 208, 215 Tajikistan, 33-34, 64, 168, 171, 175, 177, 189 Thorton, Rod, 76, 93 Thorun, Christian, 17, 22, 29 Transnistria, 34-36, 38 Treisman, Daniel, 22-23, 28 Tsygankov, Andrei P., 1,18, 22-23, 29, 65, 215 Turkey, 64, 89, 133,182,190, 212 Turkmenistan, 55, 67, 174,189 2008 Russia-Georgia War, 20, 44, 52, 62-63, 67, 73, 75, 78, 93-94, 221 2008 Russia-Georgia War (continued), 107, 110,120-121, 133,142,146, 157, 204 See also Abkhazia See also South Ossetia Ukraine, 1-2, 13, 22, 24, 28, 34-36, 49, 52, 56-58, 62-64, 67, 70, 80, 84, 86-87, 108, 114, 118, 123-125,127-128, 130, 134, 139-141,146-147, 149,155, 158, 163-165,188, 198, 200, 203-204, 208-210 Donbass rebellion, 53, 59-61, 82, 100,126, 137, 148,150-154, 156-157, 159-160, 187, 197 improvement in armed forces since 2014, 159 Naftogaz, 54 Orange Revolution of 2004-2005, 55, 171 Russian invasion of, 53,196 See also
Crimea See also cyber warfare unipolarity, 2, 7 United Kingdom, 7, 26, 61,104, 113, 126-127, 143, 168-169, 180, 201, 210-211 United Nations, 16, 34, 38,164, 177, 181 United Russia party, 46, 48, 198 United States, 21, 33, 46, 50, 59, 61, 69, 71, 81, 83, 90, 100-101, 103-105, 109, 116-117, 120, 122, 127-128, 130, 143, 156, 160, 167, 170, 172-173, 176, 182-183, 187, 193, 198-199, 201-202, 206, 209-213 Uzbekistan, 64, 171, 174, 177, 188-189
222 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Van Herpen, Marcel H., 17, 22-23, 29, 103, 106-107, 112-113, 201, 207, 215 Vogler, Sarah, 114, 118-119, 124, 132-134 Waltz, Kenneth, 4, 7-8, 25-26 Yanukovich, Viktor, 53, 55-57, 63, 124, 149, 197 Yuschenko, Viktor, 55 Yeltsin, Boris, 31-32, 46, 63-64, 71 Zyuganov, Gennady, 41
Table of Contents List of Tables.ix Acknowledgments. xi Chapter 1: Theories of Russian Foreign Policy. 1 Chapter 2: Russia’s Post-Soviet Wars, Aggressions, and Interventions. 31 Chapter 3: Russia’s Efforts to Rebuild Its Armed Forces for the Future. 69 Chapter 4: Russia’s Nonconventional Assets. 97 Chapter 5: Cyber Warfare. 115 Chapter 6: The Continuing Russian Threat to the Baltic Nations and Eastern Europe.135 Chapter 7: Russian Actions in Central Asia and the Middle East. 167 Chapter 8: Conclusion. 193 Index. 217 About the Author. 223 Cambria Rapid Communications in Conflict and Security (RCCS) Series. 225
Index Afghanistan, 33-34, 39, 43, 72, 81, 116, 158,168-170, 175-176, 178, 188, 190, 210 Al-Assad, Bashar, 169,181 Al-Qaeda, 42, 46,182 Arab Spring, 81, 100,181, 188 Armenia, 32-33, 64, 108, 171-172, 174-175, 188 Azerbaijan, 32-33, 64, 171-172, 175, 188 asymmetrical warfare, 115-118, 147, 201, 203, 205 See also cyber warfare See also hybrid warfare Baltic nations, 61,108,119, 135-150, 157-160,162-163, 175, 196, 198, 200-201, 203, 205-209, 213 Bārties, Charles K., 22, 57-58, 68, 81, 94 Belarus, 56, 64, 70, 142, 147-149, 151, 153,158-160, 164, 171, 174, 188, 190, 203 Beslan school siege, 13,19, 47, 74 bipolarity, 2 Bogdanov, S.A., 117 Bryce-Rogers, Athena, 67, 75, 93-94 Caucasus, 3, 23-24, 39-40, 42, 44, 46, 49-50, 52, 65, 67, 167, 173, 188, 196, 203, 211-212, 216 Central Asia, 54, 65,108,130, 167-171, 173-176, 178, 180, Central Asia (continued), 186-187, 203, 210-211 Charap, Samuel, 18, 22-23, 62, 64, 68, 189-190 Chechnya, 24, 29, 39-47, 62-63, 65, 73, 81, 117, 152, 172, 177, 190 Chekinov, Co. S.G., 117,132 Chernoymyrdin, Viktor, 42 China, 7, 16, 21, 72, 90, 122, . 3-174, 176-179, 187, BB 189-190, 210-211, 225 Cohen, Ariel, 65, 67, 94, 211, 216 Cold War, 2-3, 64-65, 136, 138,142, 169, 176, 180, 200, 209, 211 Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO), 64,171 color revolutions, 18, 101-102, 105, 112, 167, 169-172, 183, 188, 190 Colton, Timothy J., 18, 22, 29, 68, 132, 164-165, 190, 215 Connell, Michael, 114,118-119, 124, 132-134 Cooper, Julian, 85, 92, 94-96 Crimea, 2-3, 24, 28, 53-54, 56-61, 68, 70, 80, 82, 95, 100, 125-126, 134, 137,139, 141-143, 148, 150-152, 154-157,
159-161, 164-165, 189, 193, 195, 197, 199, 204, 209-210 cyber warfare, 20, 29, 51, 60, 109-111, 114-115, 118-127, 130, 132-134, 142, 144-146, 150,154, 158, 201, 204, 213
218 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars cyber warfare (continued) See also asymmetrical warfare See also hybrid warfare Dagestan, 42, 44 Dawisha, Karen, 96,112,114 Deibert, Ronald J., 123,133 Denmark, 142 domestic factory theory, 1-4, 8-9, 11-13,16, 26, 40, 46, 49, 63, 96, 120-121, 129-130, 140-141, 144, 146, 169, 173, 194, 198, 203, 209 Dreyer, John R., 4, 6, 12, 25-26, 28 Dubrovka Theater siege, 46 Dudayev, Dzhokhar, 40 Eastern Europe, 2, 23-24, 28, 64, 70, 103,108,113,126, 128,130,135, 138,147, 149-150, 153, 157-158, 160,162-163, 165, 168, 170, 175, 186, 188, 193, 196, 198-200, 203, 208-209, 213, 215-216 Estonia, 64, 118-120, 132, 135-137, 141, 144, 146, 208 Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), 64,174 European Union (EU), 27, 38, 51, 56, 58-59, 61, 138-139,147,156, 158, 160, 196-197, 200, 207, 209 France, 7, 33, 108-109,113 Gazprom, 54-55, 144, 154 Georgia, 2, 20, 23-24, 42, 44, 53, 57-58, 62-64, 66-67, 73, 75, 78, 81, 93-94, 107, 110, 118,120, 122-123, 127, 130, 133, 142, 146, 157, 171-173, 175, 187-188, 196-197, 204 Abkhazia, 36-38, 49-52, 65,105, 121 Georgia (continued) South Ossetia, 36-38, 49-52, 65, 105, 121, 152 Gerasimov Doctrine, 20, 68, 81, 85, 94-95, 141 Gerasimov, Valery, 20, 24, 81, 171 Germany, 7, 61, 67,143 Giles, Keir, 23, 67,113,132, 134, 189 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 34, 39, 71, 170, 176 Gorenburg, Dmitry, 64, 87, 94-95 Gotkowska, Justyna, 162-163, 208, 215 Grachev, Pavel, 40, 72 Gvosdev, Nikolas, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 hard power versus soft power, 2, 5, 23, 25, 97,101-107, 112, 145, 163,175,199 hegemony, 7-8, 17, 25-26, 28, 32, 44, 128, 147, 158, 187, 200, 204,
211-212 Helmus, Todd, 113, 163, 206-207, 215 Hobbes, Thomas, 4, 25 Hoffman, Frank, 116,131 Hopf, Ted, 33, 64 hybrid warfare, 2-3, 23-24, 82, 90, 115-118, 121, 127, 130-132, 134, 157-159, 203-204, 210, 215 See also asymmetrical warfare See also cyber warfare India, 89, 96, 169-170,174, 177, 179, 190, 210-211 Ingushetia, 42 Iran, 174-175,184,190, 212-213 Islamic State, 182-187, 213 Ivanov, Sergey, 99
Index Japan, 7, 90 Jesse, Neal G., 4, 6,12, 25-28, 226 Kanét, Roger E., 31, 64 Kazakhstan, 39, 56, 70, 108, 148, 168,171-172, 174-175, 177, 189 Keohane, Robert 0„ 6, 25 Kofman, Michael, 82, 94,118, 132, 157, 164-165, 190-191,195, 199, 215 Kokoshin, Andrey, 118 Kozyrev, Andrei, 171 Kyrgyzstan, 120, 171, 174-175, 177, 189 Latvia, 134-137, 140, 142-144, 146, 162-163, 208 Lavrov, Anton, 66 Lavrov, Sergei, 9, 66, 171, 175, 189 Lithuania, 120, 135, 137, 142-144, 146, 162, 208 Lukashenko, Aiexsandr, 148 Marsh, Christopher, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 Mastriano, Doug, 24,158,162-163, 165, 205-206, 208, 215-216 McDermott, Roger N., 23, 57-58, 61, 67-68, 76, 82, 93-95 McNabb, David E., 22, 66-68, 79, 92-94,133-134, 139, 162-163, 189 Medvedev, Dmitry, 9,13, 20, 48-50, 75, 77-79, 87, 93,100, 102-103, 198 Middle East, 39, 167, 180, 187, 190, 212-213 Miller, Chris, 90, 96 Minsk Group, 33 Moldova, 34-35, 38, 64-65, 188 Monaghan, Andrew, 17, 22-23, 28, 219 Monaghan, Andrew (continued), 118, 131-132, 215 Mongolia, 190 Nagorno-Karabakh, 32, 35 near abroad, 23, 31-32, 52, 64,108, 168, 170-174, 186,188-189, 194, 196, 215 NATO, 17, 21, 49, 52, 58, 60-61, 70, 73, 75, 95,103, 114, 117, 120, 128, 130, 134-136, 140, 142-143, 146-147, 150-151, 158-160, 162, 164, 173, 177, 193, 196-200, 205, 209, 215 Baltic Intelligence Center, 206 commitment to the Baltic nations, 138-139 Enhanced Forward Presence, 139, 208 Rapid Action Plan, 210 Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, 210 Nye, Joseph S.,Jr., 25, 101-102, 112, 145 Oliker, Olga, 22, 188, 199-200, 215 OPEC, 83 Poland, 136, 139-140, 142-143, 147-149,151, 158,
160,163, 198, 200, 208 post-Soviet conflicts, 33, 35 Primakov, Yevgeny, 99, 173, 177 Putin, Vladimir, 9, 13, 22, 45, 55, 63, 66-68, 92-94, 130, 133-134, 162-163, 171, 189 realism, 2-5, 7-9, 11-13, 32, 44, 52, 58, 60, 62-63,120-121, 141, 160-161, 173, 180, 188, 193-196, 199-200, 203-205, 209, 211
220 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Renz, Bettina, 76-77, 92-93, 112, 132,134 Rochlitz, Michael, 23, 98-99,112 Rosneft, 9 Rothstein, Robert L., 6, 25 Russian foreign policy, 1, 4, 52, 61, 64-67, 69,100-101, 157, 164, 167,172-173,183, 186, 189, 194, 211 as minority community in other nations, 31-34, 36, 38, 44, 55, 62, 108, 119-121, 127, 137, 140-141, 143, 145, 148-149, 158,160, 162, 195-197, 203, 205, 209 bases in Syria, 185 corruption in defense funding, 74 decline of military in the 1990s, 71 Doctrine of Information Security, 24, 111 economic pressure on the Baltic nations, 144 economic pressure on the East European nations, 153 Eurasian power, 7 Federal Security Service (FSB), 47-48, 98-99, 110 force posturing, 142, 150 Foreign Policy Concept, 13, 15-16, 24, 28, 139, 147, 162-163, 168, 170-171, 178, 188, 190 goal of greater access to the Baltic Sea, 138-140, 142-143, 162-163, 208, 215 great power seeking, 3, 7-8, 17-18, 21-23, 25-26, 28-29, 32, 43, 62, 94, 112, 138, 147, 176, 199-200 Russian foreign policy (continued) GRU, 99,126,129 information campaigns, 103, 107-110, 115, 124-125, 127-130, 134, 145, 149, 154-156, 159,175, 204-205, 207-208, 213, 215 interference in American 2016 election, 127-128, 130 maskirovka, 154 military exercises with China, 179, 190 Military poor performance in Chechnya, 43 Ministry of Defense, 9,16, 20-21, 29, 51, 70-72, 79-80, 86, 94, 99, 104, 110, 122, 184 novorossiya, 156 reform of the military, 73, 75, 79 State Armament Plan 2015, 78 State Armament Plan 2020, 78-80, 85-89 State Armament Plan 2027, 85-90 Security Council, 9,16, 50, 118,
177, 181 use of propaganda, 2, 23, 48, 81,91,97,106-109,111-113, 115, 124, 127,130,137,141, 144-145, 150, 154-156, 160, 197, 199, 201-202, 204, 206-208, 213, 215 Western sanctions due to 2014 intervention in Ukraine, 80, 82, 84, 86, 90, 95-96, 198 Russian Empire, 2, 39, 54, 59, 101, 136, 154-156, 189,211 Saakashvili, Mikheil, 49 security dilemma, 5 Serdyukov, Anatoly, 19
Index Sergeyev, Igor, 72 Sergunin, Alexander, 17, 22, 29 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), 177-179, 190 Shevtsova, Lilia, 18, 29 Shoigu, Sergei, 18, 79 siloviki, 2, 9, 23, 72-73, 79, 90, 94, 97-100, 103, ПО, 112, 117, 144, 195, 199, 209 small states, 4, 6, 25-28 social constructivism, 3-4,10-11, 13, 26-27, 32, 44, 62, 121,141, 173,194, 209 Soldatov, Andrei, 23, 98-99, 112 Soviet Union, 1-2, 7,12-13,17, 19, 31-33, 36, 39, 54, 63-64, 67, 70,72, 79, 97-98, 101,105,118, 136-137, 139, 144, 164, 169-170, 172,176,179-181, 194, 209 Sri Lanka, 190 Stepashin, Sergei, 42, 99 Sweden, 11, 27,136, 140,142-143, 206, 208 Syria, 65, 88-89, 134,169, 180-187, 190-191, 193, 199, 203, 212-213, 215 Szymański, Piotr, 162-163, 208, 215 Tajikistan, 33-34, 64, 168, 171, 175, 177, 189 Thorton, Rod, 76, 93 Thorun, Christian, 17, 22, 29 Transnistria, 34-36, 38 Treisman, Daniel, 22-23, 28 Tsygankov, Andrei P., 1,18, 22-23, 29, 65, 215 Turkey, 64, 89, 133,182,190, 212 Turkmenistan, 55, 67, 174,189 2008 Russia-Georgia War, 20, 44, 52, 62-63, 67, 73, 75, 78, 93-94, 221 2008 Russia-Georgia War (continued), 107, 110,120-121, 133,142,146, 157, 204 See also Abkhazia See also South Ossetia Ukraine, 1-2, 13, 22, 24, 28, 34-36, 49, 52, 56-58, 62-64, 67, 70, 80, 84, 86-87, 108, 114, 118, 123-125,127-128, 130, 134, 139-141,146-147, 149,155, 158, 163-165,188, 198, 200, 203-204, 208-210 Donbass rebellion, 53, 59-61, 82, 100,126, 137, 148,150-154, 156-157, 159-160, 187, 197 improvement in armed forces since 2014, 159 Naftogaz, 54 Orange Revolution of 2004-2005, 55, 171 Russian invasion of, 53,196 See also
Crimea See also cyber warfare unipolarity, 2, 7 United Kingdom, 7, 26, 61,104, 113, 126-127, 143, 168-169, 180, 201, 210-211 United Nations, 16, 34, 38,164, 177, 181 United Russia party, 46, 48, 198 United States, 21, 33, 46, 50, 59, 61, 69, 71, 81, 83, 90, 100-101, 103-105, 109, 116-117, 120, 122, 127-128, 130, 143, 156, 160, 167, 170, 172-173, 176, 182-183, 187, 193, 198-199, 201-202, 206, 209-213 Uzbekistan, 64, 171, 174, 177, 188-189
222 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Van Herpen, Marcel H., 17, 22-23, 29, 103, 106-107, 112-113, 201, 207, 215 Vogler, Sarah, 114, 118-119, 124, 132-134 Waltz, Kenneth, 4, 7-8, 25-26 Yanukovich, Viktor, 53, 55-57, 63, 124, 149, 197 Yuschenko, Viktor, 55 Yeltsin, Boris, 31-32, 46, 63-64, 71 Zyuganov, Gennady, 41
Table of Contents List of Tables.ix Acknowledgments. xi Chapter 1: Theories of Russian Foreign Policy. 1 Chapter 2: Russia’s Post-Soviet Wars, Aggressions, and Interventions. 31 Chapter 3: Russia’s Efforts to Rebuild Its Armed Forces for the Future. 69 Chapter 4: Russia’s Nonconventional Assets. 97 Chapter 5: Cyber Warfare. 115 Chapter 6: The Continuing Russian Threat to the Baltic Nations and Eastern Europe.135 Chapter 7: Russian Actions in Central Asia and the Middle East. 167 Chapter 8: Conclusion. 193 Index. 217 About the Author. 223 Cambria Rapid Communications in Conflict and Security (RCCS) Series. 225
Index Afghanistan, 33-34, 39, 43, 72, 81, 116, 158,168-170, 175-176, 178, 188, 190, 210 Al-Assad, Bashar, 169,181 Al-Qaeda, 42, 46,182 Arab Spring, 81, 100,181, 188 Armenia, 32-33, 64, 108, 171-172, 174-175, 188 Azerbaijan, 32-33, 64, 171-172, 175, 188 asymmetrical warfare, 115-118, 147, 201, 203, 205 See also cyber warfare See also hybrid warfare Baltic nations, 61,108,119, 135-150, 157-160,162-163, 175, 196, 198, 200-201, 203, 205-209, 213 Bārties, Charles K., 22, 57-58, 68, 81, 94 Belarus, 56, 64, 70, 142, 147-149, 151, 153,158-160, 164, 171, 174, 188, 190, 203 Beslan school siege, 13,19, 47, 74 bipolarity, 2 Bogdanov, S.A., 117 Bryce-Rogers, Athena, 67, 75, 93-94 Caucasus, 3, 23-24, 39-40, 42, 44, 46, 49-50, 52, 65, 67, 167, 173, 188, 196, 203, 211-212, 216 Central Asia, 54, 65,108,130, 167-171, 173-176, 178, 180, Central Asia (continued), 186-187, 203, 210-211 Charap, Samuel, 18, 22-23, 62, 64, 68, 189-190 Chechnya, 24, 29, 39-47, 62-63, 65, 73, 81, 117, 152, 172, 177, 190 Chekinov, Co. S.G., 117,132 Chernoymyrdin, Viktor, 42 China, 7, 16, 21, 72, 90, 122, . 3-174, 176-179, 187, BB 189-190, 210-211, 225 Cohen, Ariel, 65, 67, 94, 211, 216 Cold War, 2-3, 64-65, 136, 138,142, 169, 176, 180, 200, 209, 211 Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO), 64,171 color revolutions, 18, 101-102, 105, 112, 167, 169-172, 183, 188, 190 Colton, Timothy J., 18, 22, 29, 68, 132, 164-165, 190, 215 Connell, Michael, 114,118-119, 124, 132-134 Cooper, Julian, 85, 92, 94-96 Crimea, 2-3, 24, 28, 53-54, 56-61, 68, 70, 80, 82, 95, 100, 125-126, 134, 137,139, 141-143, 148, 150-152, 154-157,
159-161, 164-165, 189, 193, 195, 197, 199, 204, 209-210 cyber warfare, 20, 29, 51, 60, 109-111, 114-115, 118-127, 130, 132-134, 142, 144-146, 150,154, 158, 201, 204, 213
218 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars cyber warfare (continued) See also asymmetrical warfare See also hybrid warfare Dagestan, 42, 44 Dawisha, Karen, 96,112,114 Deibert, Ronald J., 123,133 Denmark, 142 domestic factory theory, 1-4, 8-9, 11-13,16, 26, 40, 46, 49, 63, 96, 120-121, 129-130, 140-141, 144, 146, 169, 173, 194, 198, 203, 209 Dreyer, John R., 4, 6, 12, 25-26, 28 Dubrovka Theater siege, 46 Dudayev, Dzhokhar, 40 Eastern Europe, 2, 23-24, 28, 64, 70, 103,108,113,126, 128,130,135, 138,147, 149-150, 153, 157-158, 160,162-163, 165, 168, 170, 175, 186, 188, 193, 196, 198-200, 203, 208-209, 213, 215-216 Estonia, 64, 118-120, 132, 135-137, 141, 144, 146, 208 Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), 64,174 European Union (EU), 27, 38, 51, 56, 58-59, 61, 138-139,147,156, 158, 160, 196-197, 200, 207, 209 France, 7, 33, 108-109,113 Gazprom, 54-55, 144, 154 Georgia, 2, 20, 23-24, 42, 44, 53, 57-58, 62-64, 66-67, 73, 75, 78, 81, 93-94, 107, 110, 118,120, 122-123, 127, 130, 133, 142, 146, 157, 171-173, 175, 187-188, 196-197, 204 Abkhazia, 36-38, 49-52, 65,105, 121 Georgia (continued) South Ossetia, 36-38, 49-52, 65, 105, 121, 152 Gerasimov Doctrine, 20, 68, 81, 85, 94-95, 141 Gerasimov, Valery, 20, 24, 81, 171 Germany, 7, 61, 67,143 Giles, Keir, 23, 67,113,132, 134, 189 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 34, 39, 71, 170, 176 Gorenburg, Dmitry, 64, 87, 94-95 Gotkowska, Justyna, 162-163, 208, 215 Grachev, Pavel, 40, 72 Gvosdev, Nikolas, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 hard power versus soft power, 2, 5, 23, 25, 97,101-107, 112, 145, 163,175,199 hegemony, 7-8, 17, 25-26, 28, 32, 44, 128, 147, 158, 187, 200, 204,
211-212 Helmus, Todd, 113, 163, 206-207, 215 Hobbes, Thomas, 4, 25 Hoffman, Frank, 116,131 Hopf, Ted, 33, 64 hybrid warfare, 2-3, 23-24, 82, 90, 115-118, 121, 127, 130-132, 134, 157-159, 203-204, 210, 215 See also asymmetrical warfare See also cyber warfare India, 89, 96, 169-170,174, 177, 179, 190, 210-211 Ingushetia, 42 Iran, 174-175,184,190, 212-213 Islamic State, 182-187, 213 Ivanov, Sergey, 99
Index Japan, 7, 90 Jesse, Neal G., 4, 6,12, 25-28, 226 Kanét, Roger E., 31, 64 Kazakhstan, 39, 56, 70, 108, 148, 168,171-172, 174-175, 177, 189 Keohane, Robert 0„ 6, 25 Kofman, Michael, 82, 94,118, 132, 157, 164-165, 190-191,195, 199, 215 Kokoshin, Andrey, 118 Kozyrev, Andrei, 171 Kyrgyzstan, 120, 171, 174-175, 177, 189 Latvia, 134-137, 140, 142-144, 146, 162-163, 208 Lavrov, Anton, 66 Lavrov, Sergei, 9, 66, 171, 175, 189 Lithuania, 120, 135, 137, 142-144, 146, 162, 208 Lukashenko, Aiexsandr, 148 Marsh, Christopher, 22, 64, 66-67, 162-163 Mastriano, Doug, 24,158,162-163, 165, 205-206, 208, 215-216 McDermott, Roger N., 23, 57-58, 61, 67-68, 76, 82, 93-95 McNabb, David E., 22, 66-68, 79, 92-94,133-134, 139, 162-163, 189 Medvedev, Dmitry, 9,13, 20, 48-50, 75, 77-79, 87, 93,100, 102-103, 198 Middle East, 39, 167, 180, 187, 190, 212-213 Miller, Chris, 90, 96 Minsk Group, 33 Moldova, 34-35, 38, 64-65, 188 Monaghan, Andrew, 17, 22-23, 28, 219 Monaghan, Andrew (continued), 118, 131-132, 215 Mongolia, 190 Nagorno-Karabakh, 32, 35 near abroad, 23, 31-32, 52, 64,108, 168, 170-174, 186,188-189, 194, 196, 215 NATO, 17, 21, 49, 52, 58, 60-61, 70, 73, 75, 95,103, 114, 117, 120, 128, 130, 134-136, 140, 142-143, 146-147, 150-151, 158-160, 162, 164, 173, 177, 193, 196-200, 205, 209, 215 Baltic Intelligence Center, 206 commitment to the Baltic nations, 138-139 Enhanced Forward Presence, 139, 208 Rapid Action Plan, 210 Very High Readiness Joint Task Force, 210 Nye, Joseph S.,Jr., 25, 101-102, 112, 145 Oliker, Olga, 22, 188, 199-200, 215 OPEC, 83 Poland, 136, 139-140, 142-143, 147-149,151, 158,
160,163, 198, 200, 208 post-Soviet conflicts, 33, 35 Primakov, Yevgeny, 99, 173, 177 Putin, Vladimir, 9, 13, 22, 45, 55, 63, 66-68, 92-94, 130, 133-134, 162-163, 171, 189 realism, 2-5, 7-9, 11-13, 32, 44, 52, 58, 60, 62-63,120-121, 141, 160-161, 173, 180, 188, 193-196, 199-200, 203-205, 209, 211
220 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Renz, Bettina, 76-77, 92-93, 112, 132,134 Rochlitz, Michael, 23, 98-99,112 Rosneft, 9 Rothstein, Robert L., 6, 25 Russian foreign policy, 1, 4, 52, 61, 64-67, 69,100-101, 157, 164, 167,172-173,183, 186, 189, 194, 211 as minority community in other nations, 31-34, 36, 38, 44, 55, 62, 108, 119-121, 127, 137, 140-141, 143, 145, 148-149, 158,160, 162, 195-197, 203, 205, 209 bases in Syria, 185 corruption in defense funding, 74 decline of military in the 1990s, 71 Doctrine of Information Security, 24, 111 economic pressure on the Baltic nations, 144 economic pressure on the East European nations, 153 Eurasian power, 7 Federal Security Service (FSB), 47-48, 98-99, 110 force posturing, 142, 150 Foreign Policy Concept, 13, 15-16, 24, 28, 139, 147, 162-163, 168, 170-171, 178, 188, 190 goal of greater access to the Baltic Sea, 138-140, 142-143, 162-163, 208, 215 great power seeking, 3, 7-8, 17-18, 21-23, 25-26, 28-29, 32, 43, 62, 94, 112, 138, 147, 176, 199-200 Russian foreign policy (continued) GRU, 99,126,129 information campaigns, 103, 107-110, 115, 124-125, 127-130, 134, 145, 149, 154-156, 159,175, 204-205, 207-208, 213, 215 interference in American 2016 election, 127-128, 130 maskirovka, 154 military exercises with China, 179, 190 Military poor performance in Chechnya, 43 Ministry of Defense, 9,16, 20-21, 29, 51, 70-72, 79-80, 86, 94, 99, 104, 110, 122, 184 novorossiya, 156 reform of the military, 73, 75, 79 State Armament Plan 2015, 78 State Armament Plan 2020, 78-80, 85-89 State Armament Plan 2027, 85-90 Security Council, 9,16, 50, 118,
177, 181 use of propaganda, 2, 23, 48, 81,91,97,106-109,111-113, 115, 124, 127,130,137,141, 144-145, 150, 154-156, 160, 197, 199, 201-202, 204, 206-208, 213, 215 Western sanctions due to 2014 intervention in Ukraine, 80, 82, 84, 86, 90, 95-96, 198 Russian Empire, 2, 39, 54, 59, 101, 136, 154-156, 189,211 Saakashvili, Mikheil, 49 security dilemma, 5 Serdyukov, Anatoly, 19
Index Sergeyev, Igor, 72 Sergunin, Alexander, 17, 22, 29 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), 177-179, 190 Shevtsova, Lilia, 18, 29 Shoigu, Sergei, 18, 79 siloviki, 2, 9, 23, 72-73, 79, 90, 94, 97-100, 103, ПО, 112, 117, 144, 195, 199, 209 small states, 4, 6, 25-28 social constructivism, 3-4,10-11, 13, 26-27, 32, 44, 62, 121,141, 173,194, 209 Soldatov, Andrei, 23, 98-99, 112 Soviet Union, 1-2, 7,12-13,17, 19, 31-33, 36, 39, 54, 63-64, 67, 70,72, 79, 97-98, 101,105,118, 136-137, 139, 144, 164, 169-170, 172,176,179-181, 194, 209 Sri Lanka, 190 Stepashin, Sergei, 42, 99 Sweden, 11, 27,136, 140,142-143, 206, 208 Syria, 65, 88-89, 134,169, 180-187, 190-191, 193, 199, 203, 212-213, 215 Szymański, Piotr, 162-163, 208, 215 Tajikistan, 33-34, 64, 168, 171, 175, 177, 189 Thorton, Rod, 76, 93 Thorun, Christian, 17, 22, 29 Transnistria, 34-36, 38 Treisman, Daniel, 22-23, 28 Tsygankov, Andrei P., 1,18, 22-23, 29, 65, 215 Turkey, 64, 89, 133,182,190, 212 Turkmenistan, 55, 67, 174,189 2008 Russia-Georgia War, 20, 44, 52, 62-63, 67, 73, 75, 78, 93-94, 221 2008 Russia-Georgia War (continued), 107, 110,120-121, 133,142,146, 157, 204 See also Abkhazia See also South Ossetia Ukraine, 1-2, 13, 22, 24, 28, 34-36, 49, 52, 56-58, 62-64, 67, 70, 80, 84, 86-87, 108, 114, 118, 123-125,127-128, 130, 134, 139-141,146-147, 149,155, 158, 163-165,188, 198, 200, 203-204, 208-210 Donbass rebellion, 53, 59-61, 82, 100,126, 137, 148,150-154, 156-157, 159-160, 187, 197 improvement in armed forces since 2014, 159 Naftogaz, 54 Orange Revolution of 2004-2005, 55, 171 Russian invasion of, 53,196 See also
Crimea See also cyber warfare unipolarity, 2, 7 United Kingdom, 7, 26, 61,104, 113, 126-127, 143, 168-169, 180, 201, 210-211 United Nations, 16, 34, 38,164, 177, 181 United Russia party, 46, 48, 198 United States, 21, 33, 46, 50, 59, 61, 69, 71, 81, 83, 90, 100-101, 103-105, 109, 116-117, 120, 122, 127-128, 130, 143, 156, 160, 167, 170, 172-173, 176, 182-183, 187, 193, 198-199, 201-202, 206, 209-213 Uzbekistan, 64, 171, 174, 177, 188-189
222 Learning From Russia’s Recent Wars Van Herpen, Marcel H., 17, 22-23, 29, 103, 106-107, 112-113, 201, 207, 215 Vogler, Sarah, 114, 118-119, 124, 132-134 Waltz, Kenneth, 4, 7-8, 25-26 Yanukovich, Viktor, 53, 55-57, 63, 124, 149, 197 Yuschenko, Viktor, 55 Yeltsin, Boris, 31-32, 46, 63-64, 71 Zyuganov, Gennady, 41 |
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| id | DE-604.BV046936187 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T15:36:14Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T08:57:57Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781621965411 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-032345001 |
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| physical | xiii, 226 Seiten |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20210113 |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateSearch | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | Cambria Press |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Rapid communications in conflict and security series |
| spelling | Jesse, Neal G. 1967- Verfasser (DE-588)130541435 aut Learning from Russia's recent wars why, where, and when Russia might strike next Neal G. Jesse Amherst, New York Cambria Press [2020] xiii, 226 Seiten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Rapid communications in conflict and security series Geschichte 1992- gnd rswk-swf Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd rswk-swf Militärische Intervention (DE-588)4027497-4 gnd rswk-swf Militär (DE-588)4039305-7 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 s Militär (DE-588)4039305-7 s Militärische Intervention (DE-588)4027497-4 s Geschichte 1992- z DE-604 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032345001&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032345001&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032345001&sequence=000005&line_number=0003&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032345001&sequence=000007&line_number=0004&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032345001&sequence=000009&line_number=0005&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032345001&sequence=000011&line_number=0006&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Register // Gemischte Register |
| spellingShingle | Jesse, Neal G. 1967- Learning from Russia's recent wars why, where, and when Russia might strike next Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Militärische Intervention (DE-588)4027497-4 gnd Militär (DE-588)4039305-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4003846-4 (DE-588)4027497-4 (DE-588)4039305-7 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | Learning from Russia's recent wars why, where, and when Russia might strike next |
| title_auth | Learning from Russia's recent wars why, where, and when Russia might strike next |
| title_exact_search | Learning from Russia's recent wars why, where, and when Russia might strike next |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Learning from Russia's recent wars why, where, and when Russia might strike next |
| title_full | Learning from Russia's recent wars why, where, and when Russia might strike next Neal G. Jesse |
| title_fullStr | Learning from Russia's recent wars why, where, and when Russia might strike next Neal G. Jesse |
| title_full_unstemmed | Learning from Russia's recent wars why, where, and when Russia might strike next Neal G. Jesse |
| title_short | Learning from Russia's recent wars |
| title_sort | learning from russia s recent wars why where and when russia might strike next |
| title_sub | why, where, and when Russia might strike next |
| topic | Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd Militärische Intervention (DE-588)4027497-4 gnd Militär (DE-588)4039305-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Außenpolitik Militärische Intervention Militär Russland |
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| work_keys_str_mv | AT jessenealg learningfromrussiasrecentwarswhywhereandwhenrussiamightstrikenext |
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