Lost in a Gallup: polling failure in U.S. presidential elections
"Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Oakland, California
University of California Press
[2020]
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Zusammenfassung: | "Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris. The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists-including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson-were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling's messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important and highly anticipated of all American elections"-- |
| Beschreibung: | xv, 318 Seiten Illustrationen 24 cm |
| ISBN: | 9780520300965 |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV046923893 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20201202 | ||
| 007 | t| | ||
| 008 | 201005s2020 xx a||| b||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 9780520300965 |c hbk. |9 978-0-520-30096-5 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1220881734 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV046923893 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rda | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-12 |a DE-188 | ||
| 082 | 0 | |a 324.973 | |
| 100 | 1 | |a Campbell, W. Joseph |d 1952- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)132397080 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Lost in a Gallup |b polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |c W. Joseph Campbell |
| 264 | 1 | |a Oakland, California |b University of California Press |c [2020] | |
| 300 | |a xv, 318 Seiten |b Illustrationen |c 24 cm | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 505 | 8 | |a Introduction : of pollsters, journalists, and presidential elections -- Of poll-bashing journalists and the 'Babe Ruth' of survey research -- 'A time of polls gone mad' : the literary digest debacle of 1936 -- 'The defeat of the pollsters' : the epic fail of 1948 -- A tie 'would suit them fine' : the 1952 landslide pollsters did not foresee -- The 'close race that never happened' : miscalling the 1980 election -- 'Television's version of "Dewey defeats Truman" ' : the trifecta of 2000 -- 'President Kerry' : exit polls misfire in 2004 -- 'Gallup vs. the world' : pointing the wrong way in 2012 -- 'The night that wasn't supposed to happen' : the shock election of 2016 -- Conclusion : will it happen again? | |
| 520 | 3 | |a "Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris. The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists-including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson-were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling's messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important and highly anticipated of all American elections"-- | |
| 610 | 2 | 7 | |a USA |b Präsident |0 (DE-588)2033432-1 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 648 | 7 | |a Geschichte |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Präsidentenwahl |0 (DE-588)4047020-9 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Wahlkampf |0 (DE-588)4064292-6 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 653 | 0 | |a Presidents / United States / Election / History | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Elections / United States / History | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Voting / United States / History | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Press and politics / United States / History | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Political campaigns / United States / History | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Presidential candidates / United States | |
| 653 | 2 | |a United States / Politics and government | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Elections | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Political campaigns | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Politics and government | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Presidential candidates | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Presidents / Election | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Press and politics | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Voting | |
| 653 | 2 | |a United States | |
| 653 | 6 | |a History | |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a USA |b Präsident |0 (DE-588)2033432-1 |D b |
| 689 | 0 | 1 | |a Präsidentenwahl |0 (DE-588)4047020-9 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 2 | |a Wahlkampf |0 (DE-588)4064292-6 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 3 | |a Geschichte |A z |
| 689 | 0 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Online-Ausgabe |z 978-0-520-97213-1 |
| 940 | 1 | |q BSB_NED_20201102 | |
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-032333038 | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1823947254288875520 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | |
| adam_txt | |
| any_adam_object | |
| any_adam_object_boolean | |
| author | Campbell, W. Joseph 1952- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)132397080 |
| author_facet | Campbell, W. Joseph 1952- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Campbell, W. Joseph 1952- |
| author_variant | w j c wj wjc |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV046923893 |
| contents | Introduction : of pollsters, journalists, and presidential elections -- Of poll-bashing journalists and the 'Babe Ruth' of survey research -- 'A time of polls gone mad' : the literary digest debacle of 1936 -- 'The defeat of the pollsters' : the epic fail of 1948 -- A tie 'would suit them fine' : the 1952 landslide pollsters did not foresee -- The 'close race that never happened' : miscalling the 1980 election -- 'Television's version of "Dewey defeats Truman" ' : the trifecta of 2000 -- 'President Kerry' : exit polls misfire in 2004 -- 'Gallup vs. the world' : pointing the wrong way in 2012 -- 'The night that wasn't supposed to happen' : the shock election of 2016 -- Conclusion : will it happen again? |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1220881734 (DE-599)BVBBV046923893 |
| dewey-full | 324.973 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 324 - The political process |
| dewey-raw | 324.973 |
| dewey-search | 324.973 |
| dewey-sort | 3324.973 |
| dewey-tens | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
| discipline | Politologie |
| discipline_str_mv | Politologie |
| era | Geschichte gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>00000nam a2200000 c 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV046923893</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20201202</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t|</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">201005s2020 xx a||| b||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9780520300965</subfield><subfield code="c">hbk.</subfield><subfield code="9">978-0-520-30096-5</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1220881734</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV046923893</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-12</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-188</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">324.973</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Campbell, W. Joseph</subfield><subfield code="d">1952-</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)132397080</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Lost in a Gallup</subfield><subfield code="b">polling failure in U.S. presidential elections</subfield><subfield code="c">W. Joseph Campbell</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Oakland, California</subfield><subfield code="b">University of California Press</subfield><subfield code="c">[2020]</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xv, 318 Seiten</subfield><subfield code="b">Illustrationen</subfield><subfield code="c">24 cm</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="505" ind1="8" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Introduction : of pollsters, journalists, and presidential elections -- Of poll-bashing journalists and the 'Babe Ruth' of survey research -- 'A time of polls gone mad' : the literary digest debacle of 1936 -- 'The defeat of the pollsters' : the epic fail of 1948 -- A tie 'would suit them fine' : the 1952 landslide pollsters did not foresee -- The 'close race that never happened' : miscalling the 1980 election -- 'Television's version of "Dewey defeats Truman" ' : the trifecta of 2000 -- 'President Kerry' : exit polls misfire in 2004 -- 'Gallup vs. the world' : pointing the wrong way in 2012 -- 'The night that wasn't supposed to happen' : the shock election of 2016 -- Conclusion : will it happen again?</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1="3" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">"Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris. The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists-including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson-were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling's messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important and highly anticipated of all American elections"--</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="610" ind1="2" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">USA</subfield><subfield code="b">Präsident</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)2033432-1</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="648" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Geschichte</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Präsidentenwahl</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4047020-9</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Wahlkampf</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4064292-6</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Presidents / United States / Election / History</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Elections / United States / History</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Voting / United States / History</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Press and politics / United States / History</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Political campaigns / United States / History</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Presidential candidates / United States</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="2"><subfield code="a">United States / Politics and government</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Elections</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Political campaigns</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Politics and government</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Presidential candidates</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Presidents / Election</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Press and politics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Voting</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="2"><subfield code="a">United States</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2="6"><subfield code="a">History</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">USA</subfield><subfield code="b">Präsident</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)2033432-1</subfield><subfield code="D">b</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Präsidentenwahl</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4047020-9</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="2"><subfield code="a">Wahlkampf</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4064292-6</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="3"><subfield code="a">Geschichte</subfield><subfield code="A">z</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="776" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Erscheint auch als</subfield><subfield code="n">Online-Ausgabe</subfield><subfield code="z">978-0-520-97213-1</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="940" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="q">BSB_NED_20201102</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="943" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-032333038</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV046923893 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T15:32:05Z |
| indexdate | 2025-02-13T13:00:50Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780520300965 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-032333038 |
| oclc_num | 1220881734 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 DE-188 |
| physical | xv, 318 Seiten Illustrationen 24 cm |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20201102 |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publishDateSearch | 2020 |
| publishDateSort | 2020 |
| publisher | University of California Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Campbell, W. Joseph 1952- Verfasser (DE-588)132397080 aut Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections W. Joseph Campbell Oakland, California University of California Press [2020] xv, 318 Seiten Illustrationen 24 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Introduction : of pollsters, journalists, and presidential elections -- Of poll-bashing journalists and the 'Babe Ruth' of survey research -- 'A time of polls gone mad' : the literary digest debacle of 1936 -- 'The defeat of the pollsters' : the epic fail of 1948 -- A tie 'would suit them fine' : the 1952 landslide pollsters did not foresee -- The 'close race that never happened' : miscalling the 1980 election -- 'Television's version of "Dewey defeats Truman" ' : the trifecta of 2000 -- 'President Kerry' : exit polls misfire in 2004 -- 'Gallup vs. the world' : pointing the wrong way in 2012 -- 'The night that wasn't supposed to happen' : the shock election of 2016 -- Conclusion : will it happen again? "Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris. The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists-including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson-were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling's messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important and highly anticipated of all American elections"-- USA Präsident (DE-588)2033432-1 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte gnd rswk-swf Präsidentenwahl (DE-588)4047020-9 gnd rswk-swf Wahlkampf (DE-588)4064292-6 gnd rswk-swf Presidents / United States / Election / History Elections / United States / History Voting / United States / History Press and politics / United States / History Political campaigns / United States / History Presidential candidates / United States United States / Politics and government Elections Political campaigns Politics and government Presidential candidates Presidents / Election Press and politics Voting United States History USA Präsident (DE-588)2033432-1 b Präsidentenwahl (DE-588)4047020-9 s Wahlkampf (DE-588)4064292-6 s Geschichte z DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-0-520-97213-1 |
| spellingShingle | Campbell, W. Joseph 1952- Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections Introduction : of pollsters, journalists, and presidential elections -- Of poll-bashing journalists and the 'Babe Ruth' of survey research -- 'A time of polls gone mad' : the literary digest debacle of 1936 -- 'The defeat of the pollsters' : the epic fail of 1948 -- A tie 'would suit them fine' : the 1952 landslide pollsters did not foresee -- The 'close race that never happened' : miscalling the 1980 election -- 'Television's version of "Dewey defeats Truman" ' : the trifecta of 2000 -- 'President Kerry' : exit polls misfire in 2004 -- 'Gallup vs. the world' : pointing the wrong way in 2012 -- 'The night that wasn't supposed to happen' : the shock election of 2016 -- Conclusion : will it happen again? USA Präsident (DE-588)2033432-1 gnd Präsidentenwahl (DE-588)4047020-9 gnd Wahlkampf (DE-588)4064292-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)2033432-1 (DE-588)4047020-9 (DE-588)4064292-6 |
| title | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |
| title_auth | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |
| title_exact_search | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |
| title_full | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections W. Joseph Campbell |
| title_fullStr | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections W. Joseph Campbell |
| title_full_unstemmed | Lost in a Gallup polling failure in U.S. presidential elections W. Joseph Campbell |
| title_short | Lost in a Gallup |
| title_sort | lost in a gallup polling failure in u s presidential elections |
| title_sub | polling failure in U.S. presidential elections |
| topic | USA Präsident (DE-588)2033432-1 gnd Präsidentenwahl (DE-588)4047020-9 gnd Wahlkampf (DE-588)4064292-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | USA Präsident Präsidentenwahl Wahlkampf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT campbellwjoseph lostinagalluppollingfailureinuspresidentialelections |