Bargaining over the bomb: the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, United Kingdom [und vier weitere]
Cambridge University Press
2019
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext |
| Beschreibung: | xi, 213 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9781108701846 9781108477055 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | Contents List of Tables page viii List of Figures ix Acknowledgments x 1 Do Nuclear AgreementsWork? 1 1.1 4 The Central Argument 1.2 Alternative Explanations and Why They Are Insufficient 1.3 2 3 Roadmap 9 13 How Are Nuclear Weapons Special? 17 2.1 The Cost of Nuclear Weapons 17 2.2 The Technological Idiosyncracies of Nuclear Weapons 20 2.3 22 Leveraging Nuclear Weapons The Theory of Butter-for-Bombs Agreements: How Potential Power Coerces Concessions 28 3.1 Modeling Butter-for-Bombs Agreements 3.1.1 Actions and Transitions 3.1.2 Key Features 3.1.3 Equilibrium 29 30 32 33 3.2 Understanding the Deal 44 3.3 Implications of Butter-for-Bombs Agreements 49 3.4 Conclusion 52
vi Contents 3.5 4 5 52 53 54 54 55 56 Does Nuclear Proficiency Induce Compliance? 59 4.1 Theory and Hypotheses 60 4.2 Data and Statistical Model 4.2.1 Dependent Variable 4.2.2 Independent Variables 4.2.3 Statistical Model 64 64 64 66 4.3 66 Empirical Evidence of the Powerof Nuclear Proficiency 4.4 Robustness Checks 72 4.5 74 Conclusion The Diplomacy of Butter-for-BombsAgreements 75 5.1 A Strategy for Models and Case Studies 76 5.2 Soviet Successor States: Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine 79 5.3 5.4 5.5 6 Appendix 3.5.1 Proof of Lemma 3.1 3.5.2 Proof of Theorem 3.1 3.5.3 Proof of Proposition 3.1 3.5.4 Proof of Proposition 3.2 3.5.5 Proof of Propositions 3.3and 3.4 Egypt, the Camp David Accords, and External Subsidies 86 Cold War Allies: South Korea, Australia, and Japan 90 Conclusion 97 Arms Treaties and the Changing Credibility of Preventive War 99 6.1 What Is War Exhaustion? 100 6.2 Modeling War Exhaustion 102 6.3 Illustrating the Mechanism: The Origins of the Cold War 106 6.4 Exploring the Mechanism: Domestic Politics and Unreliable Proliferation Paths 118 6.5 121 Conclusion 6.6 Appendix 6.6.1 Proof of Lemma 6.1 6.6.2 Proof of Proposition 6.2 122 122 123
Contents 7 8 You Get What You Give: Endogenous Nuclear Reversal 126 7.1 Monitoring Problems and Features of Inspection Regimes 128 7.2 Bargaining with Imperfect Monitoring 7.2.1 The Proliferation Decision 7.2.2 The Divestment Decision 132 134 139 7.3 Understanding Weapons Inspections and Nuclear Reversals 142 7.4 The Robustness of Nuclear Reversals 148 7.5 Conclusion 150 7.6 Appendix 7.6.1 Proof for Proposition 7.2 and Proposition 7.3 7.6.2 Proof for Proposition 7.4 7.6.3 Proof for Proposition 7.5 7.6.4 Discussion of an Infinite-Horizon Model 151 151 152 155 156 Bluffing Preventive War 157 8.1 160 Information and War 8.2 Modeling the Bluff 9 vii 162 8.3 Illustrating the Mechanism: Israel, Iraq, and Operation Opera 8.3.1 Overview of the Iraqi Nuclear Program and Operation Opera 8.3.2 The Osirak Reactor: An Open Secret 8.3.3 Iraqi Optimism 8.3.4 Preventive War Versus Disadvantageous Peace 169 172 174 175 8.4 Conclusion 178 8.5 Appendix 8.5.1 Proof of Lemma 8.1 8.5.2 Derivation of the Cut-Point in Proposition 8.2 8.5.3 Proof of Proposition 8.3 180 180 180 181 Lessons Learned 187 References Index 168 194 208
an nuclear agreements like the Iran Deal work?This C book develops formal bargaining models to show that they can over time despite apparent incentives to cheat. Existing theories of nuclear proliferation to account for the impact of bargaining on the process. William Spaniel explores how credible agreements exist in which rival states make concessions to convince rising states not to proliferate and argues in support of nuclear negotiations as effective counter-proliferation tools. This book proves not only the existence of settlements but also the robustness of the inefficiency puzzle. In addition to examining existing agreements, the model used by Spaniel serves as a baseline for modeling other concerns about nuclear weapons. William Spaniel is an assistant professor in political science at the University of Pittsburgh. He previously served as a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Scholar at Stanford University s Center for International Security and Cooperation. He is also the author of GameTheory 101: The Complete Textbook.
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| adam_txt |
Contents List of Tables page viii List of Figures ix Acknowledgments x 1 Do Nuclear AgreementsWork? 1 1.1 4 The Central Argument 1.2 Alternative Explanations and Why They Are Insufficient 1.3 2 3 Roadmap 9 13 How Are Nuclear Weapons Special? 17 2.1 The Cost of Nuclear Weapons 17 2.2 The Technological Idiosyncracies of Nuclear Weapons 20 2.3 22 Leveraging Nuclear Weapons The Theory of Butter-for-Bombs Agreements: How Potential Power Coerces Concessions 28 3.1 Modeling Butter-for-Bombs Agreements 3.1.1 Actions and Transitions 3.1.2 Key Features 3.1.3 Equilibrium 29 30 32 33 3.2 Understanding the Deal 44 3.3 Implications of Butter-for-Bombs Agreements 49 3.4 Conclusion 52
vi Contents 3.5 4 5 52 53 54 54 55 56 Does Nuclear Proficiency Induce Compliance? 59 4.1 Theory and Hypotheses 60 4.2 Data and Statistical Model 4.2.1 Dependent Variable 4.2.2 Independent Variables 4.2.3 Statistical Model 64 64 64 66 4.3 66 Empirical Evidence of the Powerof Nuclear Proficiency 4.4 Robustness Checks 72 4.5 74 Conclusion The Diplomacy of Butter-for-BombsAgreements 75 5.1 A Strategy for Models and Case Studies 76 5.2 Soviet Successor States: Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine 79 5.3 5.4 5.5 6 Appendix 3.5.1 Proof of Lemma 3.1 3.5.2 Proof of Theorem 3.1 3.5.3 Proof of Proposition 3.1 3.5.4 Proof of Proposition 3.2 3.5.5 Proof of Propositions 3.3and 3.4 Egypt, the Camp David Accords, and External Subsidies 86 Cold War Allies: South Korea, Australia, and Japan 90 Conclusion 97 Arms Treaties and the Changing Credibility of Preventive War 99 6.1 What Is War Exhaustion? 100 6.2 Modeling War Exhaustion 102 6.3 Illustrating the Mechanism: The Origins of the Cold War 106 6.4 Exploring the Mechanism: Domestic Politics and Unreliable Proliferation Paths 118 6.5 121 Conclusion 6.6 Appendix 6.6.1 Proof of Lemma 6.1 6.6.2 Proof of Proposition 6.2 122 122 123
Contents 7 8 You Get What You Give: Endogenous Nuclear Reversal 126 7.1 Monitoring Problems and Features of Inspection Regimes 128 7.2 Bargaining with Imperfect Monitoring 7.2.1 The Proliferation Decision 7.2.2 The Divestment Decision 132 134 139 7.3 Understanding Weapons Inspections and Nuclear Reversals 142 7.4 The Robustness of Nuclear Reversals 148 7.5 Conclusion 150 7.6 Appendix 7.6.1 Proof for Proposition 7.2 and Proposition 7.3 7.6.2 Proof for Proposition 7.4 7.6.3 Proof for Proposition 7.5 7.6.4 Discussion of an Infinite-Horizon Model 151 151 152 155 156 Bluffing Preventive War 157 8.1 160 Information and War 8.2 Modeling the Bluff 9 vii 162 8.3 Illustrating the Mechanism: Israel, Iraq, and Operation Opera 8.3.1 Overview of the Iraqi Nuclear Program and Operation Opera 8.3.2 The Osirak Reactor: An Open Secret 8.3.3 Iraqi Optimism 8.3.4 Preventive War Versus Disadvantageous Peace 169 172 174 175 8.4 Conclusion 178 8.5 Appendix 8.5.1 Proof of Lemma 8.1 8.5.2 Derivation of the Cut-Point in Proposition 8.2 8.5.3 Proof of Proposition 8.3 180 180 180 181 Lessons Learned 187 References Index 168 194 208
an nuclear agreements like the Iran Deal work?This C book develops formal bargaining models to show that they can over time despite apparent incentives to cheat. Existing theories of nuclear proliferation to account for the impact of bargaining on the process. William Spaniel explores how credible agreements exist in 'which rival states make concessions to convince rising states not to proliferate and argues in support of nuclear negotiations as effective counter-proliferation tools. This book proves not only the existence of settlements but also the robustness of the inefficiency puzzle. In addition to examining existing agreements, the model used by Spaniel serves as a baseline for modeling other concerns about nuclear weapons. William Spaniel is an assistant professor in political science at the University of Pittsburgh. He previously served as a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Scholar at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation. He is also the author of GameTheory 101: The Complete Textbook. |
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| spelling | Spaniel, William ca. 20./21. Jh. Verfasser (DE-588)1154972194 aut Bargaining over the bomb the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations William Spaniel, University of Pittsburgh Cambridge, United Kingdom [und vier weitere] Cambridge University Press 2019 xi, 213 Seiten Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General / bisacsh Nuclear nonproliferation International cooperation Nuclear arms control International cooperation POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General Verhandlungstheorie (DE-588)4139583-9 gnd rswk-swf Abrüstungsverhandlung (DE-588)4443916-7 gnd rswk-swf Atomare Abrüstung (DE-588)4332988-3 gnd rswk-swf Rüstungsbegrenzung (DE-588)4115804-0 gnd rswk-swf Atomare Abrüstung (DE-588)4332988-3 s Rüstungsbegrenzung (DE-588)4115804-0 s Abrüstungsverhandlung (DE-588)4443916-7 s Verhandlungstheorie (DE-588)4139583-9 s b DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-1-108-63061-0 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032230024&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032230024&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext |
| spellingShingle | Spaniel, William ca. 20./21. Jh Bargaining over the bomb the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General / bisacsh Nuclear nonproliferation International cooperation Nuclear arms control International cooperation POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General Verhandlungstheorie (DE-588)4139583-9 gnd Abrüstungsverhandlung (DE-588)4443916-7 gnd Atomare Abrüstung (DE-588)4332988-3 gnd Rüstungsbegrenzung (DE-588)4115804-0 gnd |
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| title | Bargaining over the bomb the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations |
| title_auth | Bargaining over the bomb the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations |
| title_exact_search | Bargaining over the bomb the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Bargaining over the bomb the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations |
| title_full | Bargaining over the bomb the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations William Spaniel, University of Pittsburgh |
| title_fullStr | Bargaining over the bomb the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations William Spaniel, University of Pittsburgh |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bargaining over the bomb the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations William Spaniel, University of Pittsburgh |
| title_short | Bargaining over the bomb |
| title_sort | bargaining over the bomb the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations |
| title_sub | the successes and failures of nuclear negotiations |
| topic | POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General / bisacsh Nuclear nonproliferation International cooperation Nuclear arms control International cooperation POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General Verhandlungstheorie (DE-588)4139583-9 gnd Abrüstungsverhandlung (DE-588)4443916-7 gnd Atomare Abrüstung (DE-588)4332988-3 gnd Rüstungsbegrenzung (DE-588)4115804-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General / bisacsh Nuclear nonproliferation International cooperation Nuclear arms control International cooperation POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General Verhandlungstheorie Abrüstungsverhandlung Atomare Abrüstung Rüstungsbegrenzung |
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