Price and value: a guide to equity market valuation metrics
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
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New York
Apress
[2020]
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | xxxi, 391 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9781484255513 |
Internformat
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| adam_text | Table of Contents About the Author..................................................................................................................xi About the Technical Reviewer.......................................... ............................................ xiii Acknowledgments.................................................................. Preface...................................................... Introduction..................................................................... Chapter 1 : The Ford Dollar: The Mysterious 7258 1.1 P/E As a Measure of How “Expensive” a Company Is..................................................... xv xvii ....xxiii 1 4 1.2 P/E As a Predictor of Future Share Price.....................................................................................6 1.3 P/E As a Predictor of Future Returns........................................................................................... 9 1.4 The Mysterious Multiple............................................................................................................. 16 Chapter 2: The Value Triangle......................................... 19 2.1 Accounting Valuations: The Limitations of “Book Value”..........................................................20 2.2 The Shortcomings of Financial Models..................................................................................... 25 2.3 The Pros and Cons of Market-Based Valuation Metrics........................................................... 30 2.3.1 Disney vs.
Netflix............................................................................................................... 31 2.3.2 Ford vs, Tesla..................................................................................................................... 33 2.4 Triangulating Intrinsic Value: The Use of Valuation Ratios........................................................36 2.4.1 Price-to-Book..................................................... 37 2.4.2 Return-on-Assets.............................................................................................................. 38 2.4.3 Price-to-Earnings.............................................................................................................. 39 2.5 Summary...... .............................................................................................................................. 40
TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 3: Valuation Ratios...................... 41 3.1 Trailing P/E, or Р/ЕИт................................................................................................................... 42 3.2 Forward P/E................................................................................................................................44 3.2.1 PER (Relative P/E).............................................................................................................. 49 3.2.2 Normalized P/E....................................................... 49 3.2.3 Improving on P/E?............................................................................................................. 50 3.3 Price-to-Operating Earnings........ .............................................................................................50 3.3.1 Pro Forma Earnings........................................................................................................... 54 3.3.2 Core Earnings.................................................................................................................... 57 3.4 Dividends.................................................................................................................................... 59 3.4.1 Dividend Ratios: Significance and Trends.........................................................................60 3.5 Price-to-Sales............................................................................................................................. 65 3.6 Metrics Based on Cash
Flow......................................................................................................74 3.6.1 EBITDA and EV/EBITDA......................................................................................................75 3.6.2 Free Cash Flow.................................................................................................................. 76 3.6.3 Do Cash Flow Metrics improve Upon Earnings-Based Multiples?..................................78 3.7 Price-to-Book.............................................................................................................................. 83 3.8 Tobin’s Q...................................................................................................................................... 86 3.9 Return-on-Assets........................................................................................................................88 3.10 Adjustments to the Denominator: Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE,)........................................ 90 3.10.1 Critics and Critiques........................................................................................................ 94 3.10.2 CAPE Performance.......................................................................................................... 96 3.10.3 CAPE: An Assessment....................................................................................................107 3.11 Adjustments to the Numerator: Cash-Adjusted P/E (CAPE*)................................................113 3.12 W/rørAbout the PEG
Ratio?............................................................... 120 3.13 Composite P/E Ratios............................................................................................................. 123 3.14 Summary................................................................................................................................. 126 vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 4: Interpretations: P/E As a Dependent Variable.........................................131 4.1 What Does the P/E Really Measure?........................................................................................... 132 4.2 Firm-Level Drivers.........................................................................................................................135 4.2.1 Growth..................................................................................................................................... 135 4.2.2 Profitability, and “Quality”.................................................................................................... 146 4.2.3 Size........................................................................................................................................... 156 4.2.4 “Risk” and Cost of Capital.................................................................................................... 159 4.2.5 Shareholder Return........................... 162 4.2.6 Strategy and Business Model Issues.................................................................. 168 4.2.7 Earnings Volatility...................................................................................................................185 4.2.8 Share Price Volatility (Beta).................................................................................................. 188 4.2.9 Leverage.................................................................................................................................. 194 4.2.10 Accounting
Issues............................................................................................................... 201 4.2.11 Governance.................................................................................................................... 202 4.3 Sector-Level and Market-Level Drivers........................................................................................ 207 4.3.1 Sentiment (“Animal Spirits”)................................................................................................207 4.3.2 Sector Discounts and Premiums......................................................................................... 212 4.3.3 Regulation............................................................................................................................... 219 4.3.4 Monetary Policy...................................................................................................................... 222 4.3.5 Fiscal Policy.............................................................................................................................226 4.3.6 Inflation................................................................................................................................... 228 4.3.7 Interest Rates and Bond Yields........................................... 233 4.3.8 International Differences.......................................................................................................240 4.4
Summary........................................................................................................................................... 245 Chapter 5: Applications: P/E As an Independent Variable..................................»... 249 5.1 Using Multiples to Forecast Stock Prices....................................................................................250 5.1.1 The General Case: P/E As a Contrarian Indicator............................................................. 250 5.2 Screening for “Value”..................................................................................................................... 256 5.2.1 Evidence for the Value Anomaly.......................................................................................... 257 5.2.2 Explanations of the Value Anomaly...................................................................................... 261 5.2.3 Comparing Multiples As Value Screens.............................................................................. 273 vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS 5.3 Index Construction....................................................................................................................286 5.4 Factor Models and Smart Beta .......................... ................................................................ 288 5.4.1 The Proliferation of Factors............................................................................................ 290 5.4.2 The “Value” Cornerstone................................................................................................ 292 5.5 Valuing Corporate Transactions............................................................................................... 293 5.5.1 Deal Pricing................................................................... 5.5.2 Sum-of-the-Parts Analyses (the Conglomerate Discount)........................................... 296 5.6 Diagnosing Market Regimes.... ...............................................................................................299 5.6.1 Monetary Policy Impact...................................................................................................300 5.6.2 Bubble Detection............................................................................................................. 304 5.6.3 Illuminating the “Fine Structure” of Market Regimes........................... 308 5.7 Summary................................................................................................................................... 314 Chapter 6: Assessments and Qualifications......................................... 6.1
The Best Metric Today (2019): The P/E.................................................................................... 317 6.1.1 P/E Tends to Prevail (but Not Always),and It Only Explains So Much............................319 6.1.2 Substituting Earnings Measures Other Than GAAP-Compliant Net Earnings Does Not Reliably Improve Performance (Yet)............................................................... 320 6.1.3 The Performance of All Multiples Is Highly Dependent on the Market Regime...........320 6.1.4 The Performance of Some Multiples Has Diminished Significantly over Time............321 6.1.5 Sensitivity Varies, but Favors P/E................................................................................... 321 6.1.6 A Future Orientation Tends to Improve Short-Term Performance, but Only So Much....................................................................... 322 6.1.7 Prediction Tends to Improve Significantly as the Holding Period Increases...............323 6.1.8 Cash Flow Multiples Are Less Reliable..........................................................................323 6.1.9 Averaging (Trend-Smoothing) Multiples: An Under-explored Concept........................ 324 6.1.10 P/E Wins the Industry Popularity Contest................................................................... 324 6.2 Shifting Definitions....................................................................................................................326 6.2.1 GAAP, Non-GAAP, Core, and So On: The Validity Problem for “Earnings”..................... 327 6.2.2 Street
Earnings.................................................................................................................328 6.2.3 IFRS vs. GAAP...................................................................................................................331 6.2.4 Changing Accounting Standards.......................................................................... 332 6.2.5 Earnings Management 1: Gaming the Numbers.......................................................... 334 viii
TABLE OF CONTENTS 6.2.6 Earnings Management 2: Buybacks and EPS Enhancement.......................................... 336 6.2.7 Cash Dilution (“Nonoperating Financial Assets”)............................................................. 340 6.2.8 Taxes..................... 341 6.2.9 The Effect of Asset-Light Business Models....................................................................... 343 6.2.10 The Effect of Alternate Growth Strategies: Acquisition vs. Internal Development.... 347 6.3 Problems with Price-to-Book........................................................................................................ 349 6.4 ROA: An Incomplete Picture................................................................................. 6.5 Concluding Comments: The Uncertainty Principle® in Finance.............................................355 6.5.1 The Academic Confusion Factor.......................................................................................... 355 6.5.2 Reflexivity and the “Human Uncertainty Principle”.......................................................... 357 6.5.3 Fischer Black’s Proposition.................................................................................................. 360 6.5.4 Price-Insensitive Markets..................................................................................................... 363 Appendix A: A Critical Examination of Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Methods....... .......................................................................... The End of Book
Value.......................................................................................................................... 365 Discounted Cash Flow Modeling: A Critical Assessment.................................................................. 369 The DCF Best Case.......................................................................................................................... 370 What Is DCF, Really?....................................................................... Uncertainties, Compounded...........................................................................................................372 DCF Manipulation.............................................................................................................................376 Is DCF Actually Used by Market Practitioners?............................................................................ 377 DCF: Assessments............................................................................................................................378 Afterword: Fair Price, True Value....................................................... Index..................................................................................................................... 38 ix
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| adam_txt |
Table of Contents About the Author.xi About the Technical Reviewer. . xiii Acknowledgments. Preface. Introduction. Chapter 1 : The Ford Dollar: The Mysterious 7258 1.1 P/E As a Measure of How “Expensive” a Company Is. xv xvii .xxiii 1 4 1.2 P/E As a Predictor of Future Share Price.6 1.3 P/E As a Predictor of Future Returns. 9 1.4 The Mysterious Multiple. 16 Chapter 2: The Value Triangle. 19 2.1 Accounting Valuations: The Limitations of “Book Value”.20 2.2 The Shortcomings of Financial Models. 25 2.3 The Pros and Cons of Market-Based Valuation Metrics. 30 2.3.1 Disney vs.
Netflix. 31 2.3.2 Ford vs, Tesla. 33 2.4 Triangulating Intrinsic Value: The Use of Valuation Ratios.36 2.4.1 Price-to-Book. 37 2.4.2 Return-on-Assets. 38 2.4.3 Price-to-Earnings. 39 2.5 Summary. . 40
TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 3: Valuation Ratios. 41 3.1 Trailing P/E, or Р/ЕИт. 42 3.2 Forward P/E.44 3.2.1 PER (Relative P/E). 49 3.2.2 Normalized P/E. 49 3.2.3 Improving on P/E?. 50 3.3 Price-to-Operating Earnings. .50 3.3.1 Pro Forma Earnings. 54 3.3.2 Core Earnings. 57 3.4 Dividends. 59 3.4.1 Dividend Ratios: Significance and Trends.60 3.5 Price-to-Sales. 65 3.6 Metrics Based on Cash
Flow.74 3.6.1 EBITDA and EV/EBITDA.75 3.6.2 Free Cash Flow. 76 3.6.3 Do Cash Flow Metrics improve Upon Earnings-Based Multiples?.78 3.7 Price-to-Book. 83 3.8 Tobin’s Q. 86 3.9 Return-on-Assets.88 3.10 Adjustments to the Denominator: Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE,). 90 3.10.1 Critics and Critiques. 94 3.10.2 CAPE Performance. 96 3.10.3 CAPE: An Assessment.107 3.11 Adjustments to the Numerator: Cash-Adjusted P/E (CAPE*).113 3.12 W/rørAbout the PEG
Ratio?. 120 3.13 Composite P/E Ratios. 123 3.14 Summary. 126 vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 4: Interpretations: P/E As a Dependent Variable.131 4.1 What Does the P/E Really Measure?. 132 4.2 Firm-Level Drivers.135 4.2.1 Growth. 135 4.2.2 Profitability, and “Quality”. 146 4.2.3 Size. 156 4.2.4 “Risk” and Cost of Capital. 159 4.2.5 Shareholder Return. 162 4.2.6 Strategy and Business Model Issues. 168 4.2.7 Earnings Volatility.185 4.2.8 Share Price Volatility (Beta). 188 4.2.9 Leverage. 194 4.2.10 Accounting
Issues. 201 4.2.11 Governance. 202 4.3 Sector-Level and Market-Level Drivers. 207 4.3.1 Sentiment (“Animal Spirits”).207 4.3.2 Sector Discounts and Premiums. 212 4.3.3 Regulation. 219 4.3.4 Monetary Policy. 222 4.3.5 Fiscal Policy.226 4.3.6 Inflation. 228 4.3.7 Interest Rates and Bond Yields. 233 4.3.8 International Differences.240 4.4
Summary. 245 Chapter 5: Applications: P/E As an Independent Variable.». 249 5.1 Using Multiples to Forecast Stock Prices.250 5.1.1 The General Case: P/E As a Contrarian Indicator. 250 5.2 Screening for “Value”. 256 5.2.1 Evidence for the Value Anomaly. 257 5.2.2 Explanations of the Value Anomaly. 261 5.2.3 Comparing Multiples As Value Screens. 273 vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS 5.3 Index Construction.286 5.4 Factor Models and "Smart Beta". . 288 5.4.1 The Proliferation of Factors. 290 5.4.2 The “Value” Cornerstone. 292 5.5 Valuing Corporate Transactions. 293 5.5.1 Deal Pricing. 5.5.2 Sum-of-the-Parts Analyses (the Conglomerate Discount). 296 5.6 Diagnosing Market Regimes. .299 5.6.1 Monetary Policy Impact.300 5.6.2 Bubble Detection. 304 5.6.3 Illuminating the “Fine Structure” of Market Regimes. 308 5.7 Summary. 314 Chapter 6: Assessments and Qualifications. 6.1
The Best Metric Today (2019): The P/E. 317 6.1.1 P/E Tends to Prevail (but Not Always),and It Only Explains So Much.319 6.1.2 Substituting Earnings Measures Other Than GAAP-Compliant Net Earnings Does Not Reliably Improve Performance (Yet). 320 6.1.3 The Performance of All Multiples Is Highly Dependent on the Market Regime.320 6.1.4 The Performance of Some Multiples Has Diminished Significantly over Time.321 6.1.5 Sensitivity Varies, but Favors P/E. 321 6.1.6 A Future Orientation Tends to Improve Short-Term Performance, but Only So Much. 322 6.1.7 Prediction Tends to Improve Significantly as the Holding Period Increases.323 6.1.8 Cash Flow Multiples Are Less Reliable.323 6.1.9 Averaging (Trend-Smoothing) Multiples: An Under-explored Concept. 324 6.1.10 P/E Wins the Industry Popularity Contest. 324 6.2 Shifting Definitions.326 6.2.1 GAAP, Non-GAAP, Core, and So On: The Validity Problem for “Earnings”. 327 6.2.2 Street
Earnings.328 6.2.3 IFRS vs. GAAP.331 6.2.4 Changing Accounting Standards. 332 6.2.5 Earnings Management 1: Gaming the Numbers. 334 viii
TABLE OF CONTENTS 6.2.6 Earnings Management 2: Buybacks and EPS Enhancement. 336 6.2.7 Cash Dilution (“Nonoperating Financial Assets”). 340 6.2.8 Taxes. 341 6.2.9 The Effect of Asset-Light Business Models. 343 6.2.10 The Effect of Alternate Growth Strategies: Acquisition vs. Internal Development. 347 6.3 Problems with Price-to-Book. 349 6.4 ROA: An Incomplete Picture. 6.5 Concluding Comments: The Uncertainty Principle® in Finance.355 6.5.1 The Academic Confusion Factor. 355 6.5.2 Reflexivity and the “Human Uncertainty Principle”. 357 6.5.3 Fischer Black’s Proposition. 360 6.5.4 Price-Insensitive Markets. 363 Appendix A: A Critical Examination of Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Methods. . The End of Book
Value. 365 Discounted Cash Flow Modeling: A Critical Assessment. 369 The DCF Best Case. 370 What Is DCF, Really?. Uncertainties, Compounded.372 DCF Manipulation.376 Is DCF Actually Used by Market Practitioners?. 377 DCF: Assessments.378 Afterword: Fair Price, True Value. Index. 38 ix |
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| spelling | Calhoun, George Verfasser (DE-588)1207401099 aut Price and value a guide to equity market valuation metrics George Calhoun New York Apress [2020] xxxi, 391 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Financial Services Business Finance Bank marketing Business enterprises—Finance Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmensbewertung (DE-588)4078594-4 gnd rswk-swf Metrik (DE-588)4039002-0 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmensbewertung (DE-588)4078594-4 s Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 s Metrik (DE-588)4039002-0 s b DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-1-4842-5552-0 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032050427&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Calhoun, George Price and value a guide to equity market valuation metrics Financial Services Business Finance Bank marketing Business enterprises—Finance Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 gnd Unternehmensbewertung (DE-588)4078594-4 gnd Metrik (DE-588)4039002-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4130931-5 (DE-588)4078594-4 (DE-588)4039002-0 |
| title | Price and value a guide to equity market valuation metrics |
| title_auth | Price and value a guide to equity market valuation metrics |
| title_exact_search | Price and value a guide to equity market valuation metrics |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Price and value a guide to equity market valuation metrics |
| title_full | Price and value a guide to equity market valuation metrics George Calhoun |
| title_fullStr | Price and value a guide to equity market valuation metrics George Calhoun |
| title_full_unstemmed | Price and value a guide to equity market valuation metrics George Calhoun |
| title_short | Price and value |
| title_sort | price and value a guide to equity market valuation metrics |
| title_sub | a guide to equity market valuation metrics |
| topic | Financial Services Business Finance Bank marketing Business enterprises—Finance Aktienmarkt (DE-588)4130931-5 gnd Unternehmensbewertung (DE-588)4078594-4 gnd Metrik (DE-588)4039002-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Financial Services Business Finance Bank marketing Business enterprises—Finance Aktienmarkt Unternehmensbewertung Metrik |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032050427&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT calhoungeorge priceandvalueaguidetoequitymarketvaluationmetrics |