Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Munich
Ifo Institute
2019
|
| Schriftenreihe: | ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung
87 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | 188 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9783959420754 3959420757 |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a22000008cb4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV046402118 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20200507 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 200203s2019 |||| m||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 015 | |a 19,N48 |2 dnb | ||
| 016 | 7 | |a 1200231414 |2 DE-101 | |
| 020 | |a 9783959420754 |c : EUR 25.00 (DE), EUR 25.70 (AT) |9 978-3-95942-075-4 | ||
| 020 | |a 3959420757 |9 3-95942-075-7 | ||
| 024 | 3 | |a 9783959420754 | |
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1129049841 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)DNB1200231414 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rda | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-19 |a DE-M122 |a DE-M158 |a DE-12 | ||
| 082 | 0 | |a a330 |2 23 | |
| 084 | |a QN 200 |0 (DE-625)141802: |2 rvk | ||
| 084 | |a 330 |2 sdnb | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Reif, Magnus |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1202634974 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle |c Magnus Reif |
| 264 | 1 | |a Munich |b Ifo Institute |c 2019 | |
| 300 | |a 188 Seiten |b Diagramme | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung |v 87 | |
| 502 | |b Dissertation |c Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel |d 2019 | ||
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Prognoseverfahren |0 (DE-588)4358095-6 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Konjunkturzyklus |0 (DE-588)4032134-4 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Makroökonomisches Modell |0 (DE-588)4074486-3 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Konjunkturprognose |0 (DE-588)4139119-6 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 653 | |a Faktormodelle | ||
| 653 | |a Prognosemethoden | ||
| 653 | |a Unsicherheit | ||
| 653 | |a Vektorautoregression | ||
| 653 | |a Wendepunkte | ||
| 655 | 7 | |0 (DE-588)4113937-9 |a Hochschulschrift |2 gnd-content | |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a Konjunkturprognose |0 (DE-588)4139119-6 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 1 | |a Konjunkturzyklus |0 (DE-588)4032134-4 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 2 | |a Prognoseverfahren |0 (DE-588)4358095-6 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 3 | |a Makroökonomisches Modell |0 (DE-588)4074486-3 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 710 | 2 | |a Ifo Institut |0 (DE-588)16345994-0 |4 pbl | |
| 830 | 0 | |a ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung |v 87 |w (DE-604)BV013457541 |9 87 | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m DNB Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031814856&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-031814856 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804180933526421504 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
LIST
OF
FIGURES
XV
LIST
OF
TABLES
XVII
1
PREDICTING
ORDINARY
AND SEVERE
RECESSIONS
1
1.1
INTRODUCTION
.......................................................................................................
2
1.2
THE
MARKOV-SWITCHING
DYNAMIC
FACTOR
MODEL
....................................................
6
1.3
INDICATOR
SELECTION
..............................................................................................
9
1.4
EX
POST
BUSINESS
CYCLE
DATING
FOR
GERMANY
......................................................
12
1.4.1
SELECTED
INDICATORS
..................................................................................
13
1.4.2
FACTOR
ESTIMATE
FOR
MS(2)-DFM
.............................................................
13
1.4.3
FACTOR
ESTIMATE
FOR
MS(3)-DFM
............................................................
15
1.4.4
WHICH
MODEL
GIVES
A
MORE
REALISTIC
CHARACTERIZATION
OF
THE
GERMAN
BUSINESS
CYCLE?
........................................................................................
17
1.4.5
MONTHLY
BUSINESS
CYCLE
CHRONOLOGY
FOR
GERMANY
.................................
24
1.5
REAL-TIME
BUSINESS
CYCLE
ASSESSMENT
AND
FORECASTING
....................................
25
1.5.1
NOWCASTING
GERMAN
BUSINESS
CYCLE
TURNING
POINTS
..............................
25
1.5.2
MODEL
SELECTION
IN
REAL
TIME
...................................................................
31
1.5.3
FORECASTING
GERMAN
BUSINESS CYCLE
TURNING
POINTS
..............................
33
1.5.4
POINT
FORECASTS
OF
GERMAN
GDP
.............................................................
36
1.6
CONCLUSION
..........................................................................................................
41
A.L
CONSTRUCTION
OF
THE
STATE
SPACE
FORM
....................................................
43
A.2
ESTIMATION
OF
THE
MS-DFM
......................................................................
44
A.3
LARS-EN
ALGORITHM
...................................................................................
45
A.4
DETAILED
ESTIMATION
RESULTS
....................................................................
48
A.5
DATA:
INDICATORS,
SOURCES,
AND
REAL-TIME
SELECTION
...............................
49
2
TIME-VARYING
DYNAMICS
OF
THE
GERMAN
BUSINESS
CYCLE
55
2.1
INTRODUCTION
.......................................................................................................
56
2.2
THE
MODEL
..........................................................................................................
58
XI
2.3
DATA
.......................................................................................................................
59
2.4
REDUCED-FORM
ANALYSIS
........................................................................................
60
2.4.1
LONG-RUN
MEANS
.....................................................................................
60
2.4.2
PERSISTENCE
...............................................................................................
63
2.4.3
VOLATILITY
..................................................................................................
65
2.5
STRUCTURAL
ANALYSIS
..............................................................................................
69
2.5.1
IMPULSE
RESPONSE
ANALYSIS
......................................................................
69
2.5.2
FORECAST
ERROR
VARIANCE
DECOMPOSITION
.................................................
73
2.5.3
COUNTERFACTUAL
ANALYSIS
.........................................................................
75
2.6
CONCLUSION
...........................................................................................................
77
C.L
DETAILS
ON
THE
MODEL
ESTIMATION
...........................................................
79
C.2
IMPLEMENTATION
OF
GENERALIZED
IMPULSE
RESPONSES
.............................
84
C.
3
ADDITIONAL
FIGURES
...................................................................................
85
4
MACROECONOMIC
UNCERTAINTY
AND
FORECASTING
MACROECONOMIC
AGGREGATES
87
4.1
INTRODUCTION
........................................................................................................
88
4.2
THE
MODELS
...........................................................................................................
90
4.2.1
THE
BAYESIAN
VAR
..................................................................................
90
4.2.2
THE
BAYESIAN
THRESHOLD
VAR
...................................................................
91
4.3
DATA
AND
FORECAST
METHODOLOGY
.........................................................................
94
4.4
IN-SAMPLE
ANALYSIS
..............................................................................................
94
4.5
FORECAST
EVALUATION
..................................................................................................
100
4.5.1
FORECAST
METRICS
.........................................................................................
100
4.5.2
POINT
FORECASTS
............................................................................................
103
4.5.3
DENSITY
FORECASTS
.........................................................................................
106
4.6
CONCLUSION
..............................................................................................................
109
D.
L
PRIOR
IMPLEMENTATION
.................................................................................
113
D.2
DETERMINING
THE
DEGREE
OF
SHRINKAGE
.........................................................
114
D.3
GENERALIZED
IMPULSE
RESPONSES
..................................................................
117
5
FORECASTING
USING
MIXED-FREQUENCY
VARS
WITH
TIME-VARYING
PARAMETERS
119
5.1
INTRODUCTION
...........................................................................................................
120
5.2
DATA
AND
FORECAST
SETUP
.........................................................................................
123
5.2.1
DATASET
........................................................................................................
123
5.2.2
FORECAST
SETUP
............................................................................................
123
XII
5.3
THE
MODELS
..............................................................................................................
124
5.3.1
QUARTERLY
VAR
...........................................................................................
125
5.3.2
QUARTERLY
VAR
WITH
STOCHASTIC
VOLATILITY
....................................................
125
5.3.3
QUARTERLY
VAR
WITH
TIME-VARYING
PARAMETERS
...........................................
126
5.3.4
MIXED-FREQUENCY
VAR
...............................................................................
126
5.3.5
ESTIMATION
PROCEDURE
AND
PRIOR
SPECIFICATIONS
........................................
128
5.3.6
NOW-AND
FORECASTING
...............................................................................
131
5.4
FORECAST
METRICS
....................................................................................................
132
5.5
RESULTS
....................................................................................................................
134
5.5.1
NOWCAST
EVALUATION
..................................................................................
135
5.5.2
FORECAST
EVALUATION
..................................................................................
137
5.5.3
PREDICTIVE
DENSITY
EVALUATION
...................................................................
138
5.5.4
FORECASTING
DURING
THE
GREAT
RECESSION
....................................................
140
5.6
CONCLUSION
.............................................................................................................
142
C.L
PRIORS
............................................................................................................
147
C.2
SPECIFICATION
OF
THE
GIBBS
SAMPLER
...........................................................
148
C.3
LOG
SCORES
...................................................................................................
154
C.4
ADDITIONAL
FIGURES
......................................................................................
155
BIBLIOGRAPHY
169
XIII
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Reif, Magnus |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1202634974 |
| author_facet | Reif, Magnus |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Reif, Magnus |
| author_variant | m r mr |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV046402118 |
| classification_rvk | QN 200 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1129049841 (DE-599)DNB1200231414 |
| dewey-raw | a330 |
| dewey-search | a330 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Thesis Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02302nam a22005778cb4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV046402118</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20200507 </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">200203s2019 |||| m||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="015" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">19,N48</subfield><subfield code="2">dnb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="016" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1200231414</subfield><subfield code="2">DE-101</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9783959420754</subfield><subfield code="c">: EUR 25.00 (DE), EUR 25.70 (AT)</subfield><subfield code="9">978-3-95942-075-4</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">3959420757</subfield><subfield code="9">3-95942-075-7</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="024" ind1="3" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9783959420754</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1129049841</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)DNB1200231414</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-M122</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-M158</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-12</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">a330</subfield><subfield code="2">23</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">QN 200</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)141802:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">330</subfield><subfield code="2">sdnb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Reif, Magnus</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)1202634974</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle</subfield><subfield code="c">Magnus Reif</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Munich</subfield><subfield code="b">Ifo Institute</subfield><subfield code="c">2019</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">188 Seiten</subfield><subfield code="b">Diagramme</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung</subfield><subfield code="v">87</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="502" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">Dissertation</subfield><subfield code="c">Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel</subfield><subfield code="d">2019</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Prognoseverfahren</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4358095-6</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Konjunkturzyklus</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4032134-4</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Makroökonomisches Modell</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4074486-3</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Konjunkturprognose</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4139119-6</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Faktormodelle</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Prognosemethoden</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Unsicherheit</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Vektorautoregression</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="653" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Wendepunkte</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="655" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4113937-9</subfield><subfield code="a">Hochschulschrift</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd-content</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Konjunkturprognose</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4139119-6</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Konjunkturzyklus</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4032134-4</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="2"><subfield code="a">Prognoseverfahren</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4358095-6</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="3"><subfield code="a">Makroökonomisches Modell</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4074486-3</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="710" ind1="2" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Ifo Institut</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)16345994-0</subfield><subfield code="4">pbl</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="830" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung</subfield><subfield code="v">87</subfield><subfield code="w">(DE-604)BV013457541</subfield><subfield code="9">87</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">DNB Datenaustausch</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031814856&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-031814856</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| genre | (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Hochschulschrift |
| id | DE-604.BV046402118 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T08:43:38Z |
| institution | BVB |
| institution_GND | (DE-588)16345994-0 |
| isbn | 9783959420754 3959420757 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-031814856 |
| oclc_num | 1129049841 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-M122 DE-M158 DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-M122 DE-M158 DE-12 |
| physical | 188 Seiten Diagramme |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateSearch | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | Ifo Institute |
| record_format | marc |
| series | ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung |
| series2 | ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung |
| spelling | Reif, Magnus Verfasser (DE-588)1202634974 aut Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle Magnus Reif Munich Ifo Institute 2019 188 Seiten Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 87 Dissertation Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel 2019 Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd rswk-swf Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd rswk-swf Faktormodelle Prognosemethoden Unsicherheit Vektorautoregression Wendepunkte (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 s Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 s Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 s DE-604 Ifo Institut (DE-588)16345994-0 pbl ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 87 (DE-604)BV013457541 87 DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031814856&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Reif, Magnus Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4032134-4 (DE-588)4074486-3 (DE-588)4139119-6 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle |
| title_auth | Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle |
| title_exact_search | Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle |
| title_full | Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle Magnus Reif |
| title_fullStr | Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle Magnus Reif |
| title_full_unstemmed | Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle Magnus Reif |
| title_short | Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle |
| title_sort | macroeconomics nonlinearities and the business cycle |
| topic | Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd Makroökonomisches Modell (DE-588)4074486-3 gnd Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Prognoseverfahren Konjunkturzyklus Makroökonomisches Modell Konjunkturprognose Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031814856&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV013457541 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT reifmagnus macroeconomicsnonlinearitiesandthebusinesscycle AT ifoinstitut macroeconomicsnonlinearitiesandthebusinesscycle |