Data revisions to german national accounts: are initial releases good nowcasts?
Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should be unbiased, small and unpredictable. This paper shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large and predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed to...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin
Freie Universität Berlin
[2019]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Discussion paper / Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics Economics
2019, 11 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should be unbiased, small and unpredictable. This paper shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large and predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed to process data subject to revisions, the real-time forecasting performance of initial releases can be increased by up to 17%. For total real GDP growth, however, the initial release is an optimal forecast. Yet, given the results for disaggregated variables, the averaging-out of biases and inefficiencies at the aggregate GDP level appears to be good luck rather than good forecasting |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (12 Seiten) Diagramm |
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| 520 | 3 | |a Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should be unbiased, small and unpredictable. This paper shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large and predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed to process data subject to revisions, the real-time forecasting performance of initial releases can be increased by up to 17%. For total real GDP growth, however, the initial release is an optimal forecast. Yet, given the results for disaggregated variables, the averaging-out of biases and inefficiencies at the aggregate GDP level appears to be good luck rather than good forecasting | |
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| spelling | Strohsal, Till (DE-588)1047550547 aut Data revisions to german national accounts are initial releases good nowcasts? Till Strohsal, Elias Wolf Berlin Freie Universität Berlin [2019] 1 Online-Ressource (12 Seiten) Diagramm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Discussion paper / Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics 2019, 11 Economics Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should be unbiased, small and unpredictable. This paper shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large and predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed to process data subject to revisions, the real-time forecasting performance of initial releases can be increased by up to 17%. For total real GDP growth, however, the initial release is an optimal forecast. Yet, given the results for disaggregated variables, the averaging-out of biases and inefficiencies at the aggregate GDP level appears to be good luck rather than good forecasting Revisions Real-Time Data German National Accounts Nowcasting Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung (DE-588)4063886-8 gnd rswk-swf Revision Wirtschaft (DE-588)4049674-0 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung (DE-588)4063886-8 s Revision Wirtschaft (DE-588)4049674-0 s DE-188 Wolf, Elias (DE-588)1192481771 aut Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics Discussion paper 2019, 11 : Economics (DE-604)BV026641400 2019,11 https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/25147 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Strohsal, Till Wolf, Elias Data revisions to german national accounts are initial releases good nowcasts? Revisions Real-Time Data German National Accounts Nowcasting Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung (DE-588)4063886-8 gnd Revision Wirtschaft (DE-588)4049674-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4063886-8 (DE-588)4049674-0 (DE-588)4011882-4 |
| title | Data revisions to german national accounts are initial releases good nowcasts? |
| title_auth | Data revisions to german national accounts are initial releases good nowcasts? |
| title_exact_search | Data revisions to german national accounts are initial releases good nowcasts? |
| title_full | Data revisions to german national accounts are initial releases good nowcasts? Till Strohsal, Elias Wolf |
| title_fullStr | Data revisions to german national accounts are initial releases good nowcasts? Till Strohsal, Elias Wolf |
| title_full_unstemmed | Data revisions to german national accounts are initial releases good nowcasts? Till Strohsal, Elias Wolf |
| title_short | Data revisions to german national accounts |
| title_sort | data revisions to german national accounts are initial releases good nowcasts |
| title_sub | are initial releases good nowcasts? |
| topic | Revisions Real-Time Data German National Accounts Nowcasting Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung (DE-588)4063886-8 gnd Revision Wirtschaft (DE-588)4049674-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Revisions Real-Time Data German National Accounts Nowcasting Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung Revision Wirtschaft Deutschland |
| url | https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/25147 |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV026641400 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT strohsaltill datarevisionstogermannationalaccountsareinitialreleasesgoodnowcasts AT wolfelias datarevisionstogermannationalaccountsareinitialreleasesgoodnowcasts |