Thinking in bets: making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts
"Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York
Portfolio/Penguin
[2018]
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Zusammenfassung: | "Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run"... |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 241-266) and index |
| Beschreibung: | 276 pages illustations 22 cm |
| ISBN: | 9780735216358 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 241-266) and index | ||
| 520 | |a "Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. | ||
| 520 | |a So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. | ||
| 520 | |a By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run"... | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving / bisacsh | |
| 650 | 4 | |a PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology / bisacsh | |
| 650 | 4 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning / bisacsh | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Management games | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving | |
| 650 | 4 | |a PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Online-Ausgabe, EPUB |z 9780735216365 |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-031326579 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
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| author | Duke, Annie 1965- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1154446654 |
| author_facet | Duke, Annie 1965- |
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| author_sort | Duke, Annie 1965- |
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| callnumber-raw | HD30.6 |
| callnumber-search | HD30.6 |
| callnumber-sort | HD 230.6 |
| callnumber-subject | HD - Industries, Land Use, Labor |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1012611405 (DE-599)BVBBV045944387 |
| dewey-full | 658.4/0353 |
| dewey-hundreds | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
| dewey-ones | 658 - General management |
| dewey-raw | 658.4/0353 |
| dewey-search | 658.4/0353 |
| dewey-sort | 3658.4 3353 |
| dewey-tens | 650 - Management and auxiliary services |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV045944387 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T08:31:09Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780735216358 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 017042666 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-031326579 |
| oclc_num | 1012611405 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-1052 |
| owner_facet | DE-1052 |
| physical | 276 pages illustations 22 cm |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publishDateSearch | 2018 |
| publishDateSort | 2018 |
| publisher | Portfolio/Penguin |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Duke, Annie 1965- (DE-588)1154446654 aut Thinking in bets making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts Annie Duke New York Portfolio/Penguin [2018] 276 pages illustations 22 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references (pages 241-266) and index "Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run"... BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving / bisacsh PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology / bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning / bisacsh Management games Decision making BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, EPUB 9780735216365 |
| spellingShingle | Duke, Annie 1965- Thinking in bets making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving / bisacsh PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology / bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning / bisacsh Management games Decision making BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning |
| title | Thinking in bets making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts |
| title_auth | Thinking in bets making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts |
| title_exact_search | Thinking in bets making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts |
| title_full | Thinking in bets making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts Annie Duke |
| title_fullStr | Thinking in bets making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts Annie Duke |
| title_full_unstemmed | Thinking in bets making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts Annie Duke |
| title_short | Thinking in bets |
| title_sort | thinking in bets making smarter decisions when you don t have all the facts |
| title_sub | making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts |
| topic | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving / bisacsh PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology / bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning / bisacsh Management games Decision making BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning |
| topic_facet | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving / bisacsh PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology / bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning / bisacsh Management games Decision making BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Decision-Making & Problem Solving PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Strategic Planning |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dukeannie thinkinginbetsmakingsmarterdecisionswhenyoudonthaveallthefacts |