War and chance: assessing uncertainty in international politics
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York, NY
Oxford University Press
[2019]
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| Schriftenreihe: | Bridging the gap
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Klappentext |
| Beschreibung: | x, 228 Seiten Diagramme 25 cm |
| ISBN: | 9780190938024 |
Internformat
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| 490 | 0 | |a Bridging the gap | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Introduction : "One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities" -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Practical implications and directions for further research | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text | (Continued from front flap) Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about A clear-eyed examination of the logic, what that uncertainty entails. No one can psychology, and politics of assessing reliably predict the outbreak of armed uncertainty, War and Chance provides conflict, forecast economic recessions, scholars and practitioners with new anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate foundations for understanding one of the the countless other risks that shape most controversial elements of foreign foreign policy choices. Many scholars policy discourse. and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically JEFFREY A. FRIEDMAN meaningful, politically defensible, Professor of Government at Dartmouth practically useful, and sometimes College. His research focuses on the logically necessary for making sound ways in which risk and uncertainty shape choices. Each of these claims contradicts high-stakes policy decisions, particularly
widespread skepticism about the value in the domain of national security. of probabilistic reasoning in international His research has been published politics, and shows how placing greater by the American Journal of Political emphasis on assessing uncertainty can Science, International Organization, and improve nearly any foreign policy debate. International Security, among other is Assistant journals. He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 2013. (continued on back flap)
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Friedman, Jeffrey A. 1983- |
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| author_facet | Friedman, Jeffrey A. 1983- |
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| contents | Introduction : "One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities" -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Practical implications and directions for further research |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1105598538 (DE-599)BVBBV045899408 |
| discipline | Politologie |
| format | Book |
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| spelling | Friedman, Jeffrey A. 1983- Verfasser (DE-588)1190246104 aut War and chance assessing uncertainty in international politics Jeffrey A. Friedman New York, NY Oxford University Press [2019] x, 228 Seiten Diagramme 25 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Bridging the gap Introduction : "One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities" -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Practical implications and directions for further research Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 gnd rswk-swf Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 gnd rswk-swf Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf International relations / Decision making National security / Decision making Uncertainty / Political aspects United States / Foreign relations / Decision making United States / National security / Decision making Uncertainty / Political aspects / United States United States USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 s Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 s Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 s Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 s DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, EPUB 978-0-19-093804-8 Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031282264&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext |
| spellingShingle | Friedman, Jeffrey A. 1983- War and chance assessing uncertainty in international politics Introduction : "One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities" -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Practical implications and directions for further research Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 gnd Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd |
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| title | War and chance assessing uncertainty in international politics |
| title_auth | War and chance assessing uncertainty in international politics |
| title_exact_search | War and chance assessing uncertainty in international politics |
| title_full | War and chance assessing uncertainty in international politics Jeffrey A. Friedman |
| title_fullStr | War and chance assessing uncertainty in international politics Jeffrey A. Friedman |
| title_full_unstemmed | War and chance assessing uncertainty in international politics Jeffrey A. Friedman |
| title_short | War and chance |
| title_sort | war and chance assessing uncertainty in international politics |
| title_sub | assessing uncertainty in international politics |
| topic | Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 gnd Außenpolitik (DE-588)4003846-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Politische Entscheidung Internationale Politik Entscheidungsfindung Politikfeldanalyse Außenpolitik USA |
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