Causality, probability, and medicine:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
London ; New York
Routledge
2019
|
| Ausgabe: | First published |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | xvi, 300 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9781138829282 9781138829305 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804178872808243200 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Acknowledgements
Preface
XU
XV
Introduction
0. 1 Deterministic and indeterministic causality 2
0.2 AIM (Action, Intervention, Manipulation) theories of causality
0.3 Mechanistic theories of causality 5
0.4 Probabilistic theories of causality 8
Notes 13
PART I
Causality and action
1 An action-related theory of causality
1.1 Russell s critique of the notion of cause 19
1.2 Collingwood’s AIM theory of causality 21
1.3 Productive actions and avoidance actions 24
Notes 29
15
17
General discussion of AIM theories of causality
2.1 Gasking’s contribution 30
2.2 Objection 1. Some causes cannot be manipulated 31
2.3 Objection 2. Causes exist independently of humans 37
2.4 Objection 3. Unavoidable circularity 38
2.5 Explanation of causal asymmetry 40
30
viii Contents
3 An example from medicine: Koch’s work on
bacterial diseases and his postulates 45
3 A The background to Koch s work 45
3.2 Koch s investigations of tuberculosis and cholera 47
3.3 Koch’s postulates 50
3.4 Modification of the postulates in the light of the action-related
theory of causality 55
3.5 Koch establishes that the comma bacillus is the cause of cholera 57
Notes 67
PART !!
Causality and mechanisms 69
4 Mechanistic theories of causality and causal
theories of mechanism 71
4 A The Dowe— Salmon theory of causality 71
4.2 Criticism of the T owe—Salmon theory of causality 72
4.3 More general definitions of mechanism 73
4.4 A causal theory of mechanisms in medicine 79
4.5 The usefulness ofpostulating mechanisms for the confirmation
of causal hypotheses and for discovering cures 81
4.6 Causes, activities, and Anscombe 82
Note 89
5 Types of evidence: (i) Evidence of mechanism 90
5.1 Confirmation and disconfirmation of causal
hypotheses in medicine 90
5.2 Two kinds of evidence 91
5.3 Coronary heart disease (CHD) 92
5.4 An example of evidence of mechanism: Anitschkow s
study of experimental atherosclerosis in rabbits 95
Notes 101
6 Types of evidence: (ii) Statistical evidence
in human populations
6 A Ancel Keys and the dangers of saturated fat 102
6.2 An example of observational statistical evidence: The seven
countries study 108
6.3 The problem of confounders} and the disconfirmation
of causal hypotheses 115
6.4 Some further general points regarding the seven countries study
102
118
Contents ix
6,5 Examples of interventional statistical evidence: Some clinical
trials 119
Note i27
7 Combining statistical evidence with evidence
of mechanism
7A Combining the results of Anitschkow, Dayton et ah,
and Keys et al. 128
1.2 Strength through combining 129
Note 132
8 The Russo—Williamson thesis: (i) Effects of smoking
on health
8.1 Statement of the Russo—Williamson thesis 133
8.2 Some different views concerning the roles of statistical
evidence and evidence of mechanism in medicine 134
8.3 Smoking and lung cancer 136
8.4 Smoking and heart disease: Is there a linking mechanism? 141
8.5 Research into atherosclerosis 1979—89 143
8.6 Research into atherosclerosis in the 1990s 145
8.7 Implications of our medical examples for the Russo—Williamson
thesis 148
Note 149
9 The Russo—Williamson thesis: (ii) The evaluation of
streptomycin and thalidomide
9.1 Evidence-based medicine 150
9.2 The trial of streptomycin against bed-rest 153
9.3 The investigation of the treatment mechanism 155
9.4 The trials of streptomycin and PAS 156
9.5 The streptomycin trials in relation to EBM and RWT 158
9.6 Generalizing from the streptomycin case, and the example of
thalidomide 158
Notes 162
10 Objections to the Russo—Williamson thesis
10.1 Causal pluralism 163
10.2 McArdle disease 164
10.3 The Semmelweis case 168
10.4 Alternative medicine 174
10.5 Other statistical counter-examples 177
128
133
150
163
x Contents
11 Discovering cures in medicine and seeking for
deeper explanations 185
11.1 The importance of mechanisms for discovering
cures in medicine 185
11.2 Seeking deeper explanations in medicine
and physics 188
PART 111
Causality and probability 193
12 Indeterministic causality 195
12.1 The causation of cervical cancer 197
12.2 Probabilistic causality 200
Note 203
13 Causal networks 204
13.1 Conjunctive and interactive forks 204
13.2 Multi-causal forks 208
13.3 The rise of fast food, and the failure of the ‘Eat Well
and Stay Well project 211
13.4 The Hesslow counter-example revisited 222
Notes 223
14 How should probabilities be interpreted? 225
14.1 Interpretations of probability 226
14.2 Interpreting the probabilities in causal models 229
14.3 Simpson’s paradox 232
14.4 Comparison with other suggested solutions 233
Notes 235
15 Pearl’s alternative approach to linking causality
and probability 236
15.1 Debates about the Markov condition 236
15.2 PearVs alternative approach 243
15.3 Restoring the Markov condition by adjusting the model 246
Notes 251
16 Extension of the action-related theory to
the indeterministic case 252
16.1 Mathematical formulation of the problem 252
16.2 Informal statement of Sudbury s theorems 254
Contents xi
16.3 Extension of the action-related theory to the
indeterministic case 256
Motes 257
Appendix 1: Example of a simple medical intervention which
is not an intervention in Woodward’s sense 2S9
Appendix 2: Mathematical terminology
Appendix 3: Sudbury s theorems
Glossary of medical terms 264
References 268
Index 283
294
CAUSALITY, PROBABILITY,
AND MEDICINE
Why is understanding causation so important in philosophy and the sciences?
Should causation be defined in terms of probability? Whilst causation plays a major
role in theories and concepts of medicine, little attempt has been made to connect
causation and probability with medicine itself.
Causality; Probability, and Medicine is one of the first books to apply philosophical
reasoning about causality to important topics and debates in medicine. Donald
Gillies provides a thorough introduction to and assessment of competing theories of
causality in philosophy, including action-related theories, causality and mechanisms,
and causality and probability. Throughout the book he applies them to important
discoveries and theories within medicine, such as germ theory; tuberculosis and
cholera; smoking and heart disease; the first ever randomized controlled trial
designed to test the treatment of tuberculosis; the growing area of philosophy of
evidence-based medicine; and philosophy of epidemiology.
This book will be of great interest to students and researchers in philosophy
of science and philosophy of medicine, as well as those working in medicine,
nursing, and related health disciplines where a working knowledge of causality and
probability is required.
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| spelling | Gillies, Donald 1944- (DE-588)139600639 aut Causality, probability, and medicine Donald Gillies First published London ; New York Routledge 2019 xvi, 300 Seiten Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Causation Probabilities Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd rswk-swf Medizin (DE-588)4038243-6 gnd rswk-swf Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 gnd rswk-swf Kausalität (DE-588)4030102-3 gnd rswk-swf Kausalität (DE-588)4030102-3 s Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 s Medizin (DE-588)4038243-6 s Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 s DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-1-315-73554-2 Digitalisierung UB Augsburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030569779&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Augsburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030569779&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext |
| spellingShingle | Gillies, Donald 1944- Causality, probability, and medicine Causation Probabilities Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd Medizin (DE-588)4038243-6 gnd Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 gnd Kausalität (DE-588)4030102-3 gnd |
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| title | Causality, probability, and medicine |
| title_auth | Causality, probability, and medicine |
| title_exact_search | Causality, probability, and medicine |
| title_full | Causality, probability, and medicine Donald Gillies |
| title_fullStr | Causality, probability, and medicine Donald Gillies |
| title_full_unstemmed | Causality, probability, and medicine Donald Gillies |
| title_short | Causality, probability, and medicine |
| title_sort | causality probability and medicine |
| topic | Causation Probabilities Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd Medizin (DE-588)4038243-6 gnd Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 gnd Kausalität (DE-588)4030102-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Causation Probabilities Wahrscheinlichkeit Medizin Philosophie Kausalität |
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