Artificial intelligence and the two singularities:
Gespeichert in:
1. Verfasser: | |
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Format: | Buch |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Boca Raton ; London ; New York
CRC Press
[2018]
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Schriftenreihe: | Chapman & Hall/CRC artificial intelligence and robotics series
4 |
Schlagworte: | |
Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references |
Beschreibung: | xxvii, 375 Seiten Illustrationen |
ISBN: | 9780815368533 9780815368540 |
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adam_text | Contents
Acknowledgements, xxi
About the Author, xxiii
INTRODUCTION, XXV
Section I Artificial Intelligence
Chapter 1 ■ An Overnight Sensation, after 60 Years___________3
1.1 DEFINITIONS 3
1.1.1 Intelligence 3
1.1.2 Machine 4
1.1.3 Narrow and General AI 5
1.1.4 Intelligence and Consciousness 5
1.1.5 Terminology 6
1.2 A SHORT HISTORY OF AI RESEARCH 6
1.2.1 Durable Myths 6
1.2.2 Alan Turing 7
1.2.3 The Birth of Computing 8
1.2.4 The Dartmouth Conference 8
1.2.5 Perceptrons and Good Old-Fashioned AI 9
1.2.6 AI Winters and Springs 9
1.2.7 Big Data 11
1.2.8 Machine Learning: AI’s Big Bang 12
vîîi ■ Contents
1.2.9 Types of Machine Learning 13
1.2.10 Deep Learning 14
NOTES 15
Chapter 2 ■ The State of the Art: Artificial Narrow
____________Intelligence__________________________________17
2.1 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS EVERYWHERE 17
2.1.1 Smartphones 17
2.1.2 Logistics, Recommendations 18
2.2 THE TECH GIANTS 19
2.2.1 Google and DeepMind 20
2.2.2 Evil Monopoly or Impatient Futurists? 21
2.2.3 America’s Other AI Giants 22
2.2.4 China’s AI Giants 24
2.2.5 Europe’s AI Giants 25
2.2.6 Teenage Sex 26
2.2.7 Machine Learning Extends beyond the Tech Giants 26
2.3 HOW GOOD IS AI TODAY? 28
2.3.1 Games and Quizzes: Chess 28
2.3.2 Jeopardy 28
2.3.3 Go 29
2.3.4 E-Sports 29
2.3.5 Self-Driving Vehicles 30
2.3.6 Search 30
2.3.7 Image and Speech Recognition 32
2.3.8 Learning and Innovating 33
2.3.9 Creativity 34
2.3.10 Natural Language Processing 35
2.3.11 The Science of What We Can’t Yet Do 36
37
NOTES
Contents ■ ix
Chapter 3 ■ Exponential Improvement________________________£J_
3.1 EXPONENTIALS 41
3.1.1 The Power of Exponential Growth 41
3.1.2 No Knees 42
3.2 MOORE S LAW 43
3.2.1 No More Moore? 44
3.2.2 New Architectures 45
3.2.3 Towards Quantum Computing 47
3.3 SO WHAT? 48
3.3.1 Machines with Common Sense? 49
3.3.2 Why Don’t We Notice the Exponential Rate of
Improvement in AI? 50
NOTES 51
Chapter 4 ■ Tomorrow s AI___________________________________55
4.1 A DAY IN THE LIFE 55
4.2 THE NEW ELECTRICITY 59
4.3 NEAR-TERM AI 61
4.3.1 Voice Control 61
4.3.2 Digital Assistants 62
4.3.3 Friends? 63
4.3.4 Not by Voice Alone 63
4.3.5 Doing Business with Friends 64
4.3.6 Wearables, Insideables 64
4.3.7 Healthcare 65
4.4 THE DISCOMFORT OF DISRUPTION 66
4.4.1 Business Buzzwords 67
4.4.2 Previous Disruption by Technological Innovation 67
4.4.3 Kodak 68
4.4.4 Peer-to-Peer 68
x ■ Contents
4.5 RELATED TECHNOLOGIES 70
4.5.1 One Ring to Bind them 70
4.5.2 The Internet of Things 71
4.5.3 Robots 73
4.5.4 Googles Robot Army Decamps to Softbank 74
4.5.5 Complicated Relationships 75
4.5.6 More Robots: Androids, Drones and Exoskeletons 75
4.5.7 Drones 76
4.5.8 Virtual Reality 76
4.5.9 Applications of VR and AR 77
4.6 CURRENT CONCERNS 79
4.6.1 Privacy 80
4.6.2 Transparency 82
4.6.3 Security 83
4.6.4 Bias 84
4.6.5 Inequality 84
4.6.6 Isolation 86
4.6.7 Oligopoly: Regulators to the Rescue? 86
4.6.8 Killer Robots 89
4.6.9 Algocracy 89
NOTES 92
Chapter 5 ■ Singularities 97
5.1 ORIGINS 97
5.2 RAY KURZWEIL 98
5.3 STICKING WITH SINGULARITY 99
5.4 MULTIPLE SINGULARITIES 99
5.5 IMPORTANT AND URGENT 100
NOTES 100
Contents ■ xi
Section II The Technological Singularity
Chapter 6 ■ How to Make an Artificial General Intelligence 103
6.1 IS IT POSSIBLE IN PRINCIPLE? 103
6.1.1 Evolution: The Slow, Inefficient Way to
Develop a Brain 104
6.1.2 The Fast, Efficient Way to Develop a Brain? 105
6.1.3 Three Reasons to be Doubtful 105
6.1.4 The Chinese Room 105
6.1.5 Quantum Consciousness 106
6.1.6 Souls 107
6.2 BUILDING ON NARROW AI 108
6.3 WHOLE BRAIN EMULATION 110
6.3.1 Scanning 111
6.3.2 Computational Capacity 112
6.3.3 Modelling 113
6.3.4 The Human Brain Project and Obama s
BRAIN Initiative 114
6.3.5 Reasons Why Whole Brain Emulation Might
Not Work 115
6.4 A COMPREHENSIVE THEORY OF MIND 117
6.5 CONCLUSION: CAN WE BUILD A BRAIN? 118
NOTES 118
Chapter 7 ■ When Might the First AGI Arrive? 121
7.1 EXPERT OPINION 121
7.1.1 Cassandra? 122
7.1.2 Three Wise Men 123
7.1.3 Scepticism 123
7.1.4 Surveys 125
7.2 UNPREDICTABLE BREAKTHROUGHS 126
7.3 CONCLUSION 127
127
NOTES
xii ■ Contents
Chapter 8 ■ From AGi to Superintelligence (ASI)___________129
8.1 WHAT IS SUPERINTELLIGENCE? 129
8.1.1 How Smart Are We? 129
8.1.2 Consciousness 131
8.2 HOW TO BE SMARTER 131
8.2.1 Faster 131
8.2.2 Bigger 132
8.2.3 Better Architecture 132
8.3 HOW LONG BETWEEN AGI AND
SUPERINTELL1GENCE? 133
8.3.1 Intelligence Explosion 133
8.3.2 It Depends Where You Start From 134
8.3.3 Asking the Experts Again 135
8.3.4 One or Many? 135
8.4 CONCLUSION 136
NOTES 136
Chapter 9 ■ Will Superintelligence Be Beneficial?______________137
9.1 THE SIGNIFICANCE OF SUPERINTELLIGENCE 137
9.1.1 The Best of Times or the Worst of Times 137
9.2 OPTIMISTIC SCENARIOS: TO IMMORTALITY AND
BEYOND 138
9.2.1 The Ultimate Problem Solver 139
9.2.2 The Singularity, and the Rapture of the Nerds 139
9.2.3 Silicon Valley, Ground Zero for the Singularity 139
9.2.4 Utopia within Our Grasp? 140
9.2.5 Transhumanists and Post-Humans 141
9.2.6 Immortality 142
9.2.7 Living Long Enough to Live Forever 143
9.3 PESSIMISTIC SCENARIOS: EXTINCTION OR WORSE 144
9.4 ARGUMENTS FOR OPTIMISM 146
9.4.1 More Intelligence Means More Benevolence 146
9.4.2 No Goals 148
Contents ■ xüi
9.4.3 We Control the Goals 148
9.4.4 No Competition 149
9.4.5 Superintelligence Like a Bureaucracy 150
9.5 ARGUMENTS FOR PESSIMISM 151
9.5.1 Unfriendly AI is More Likely 151
9.5.2 Indifference 152
9.5.3 Getting Its Retaliation in First 152
9.5.4 Disapproval 153
9.5.5 Error, Not Terror 154
9.5.6 The Paperclip Maximiser 155
9.5.7 Pointlessness 155
9.5.8 Fatal Altruism 156
9.5.9 Mind Crime 156
9.6 DEPENDENCE ON INITIAL CONDITIONS 157
9.6.1 Emulations are Less Alien? 158
9.6.2 Start with a Toddler 158
9.7 CONCLUSION 159
NOTES 159
Chapter 10 ■ Ensuring that Super-intelligence is Friendly (FAI) 161
10.1 STOP! 161
10.1.1 Relinquishment 162
10.1.2 Just Flick the Switch 163
10.2 CENTAURS 164
10.2.1 Can IA Forestall AI? 165
10.3 CONTROL 165
10.3.1 Oracle AI 166
10.3.2 Escape Routes 166
10.4 MOTIVATION 167
10.4.1 Unalterable Programming 168
10.4.2 The Difficulty of Defining ‘Good’ 169
10.4.3 Trolleyology and Moral Confusion 169
xiv ■ Contents
10.4.4 Asimov’s Three Laws 170
10.4.5 Don’t Do as I Say; Do as I Would Do 171
10.5 EXISTENTIAL RISK ORGANISATIONS 171
10.6 CONCLUSION 173
NOTES 174
Chapter 11 - The Technological Singularity:
Summary and Conclusions 175
11.1 CAN WE CREATE SUPERINTELLIGENCE, AND WHEN? 175
11.2 WILL WE LIKE IT? 176
11.3 NO STOPPING 177
11.4 RATHER CLEVER MAMMALS 178
11.5 IT S TIME TO TALK 179
11.6 SURVIVING Al 180
NOTE 180
Section III The Economic Singularity
Chapter 12 » The History of Automation 183
12.1 THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 183
12.2 THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION 185
12.2.1 Uncertain Timing 185
12.2.2 It’s Not the Fourth Industrial Revolution 187
12.2.3 ... But it Might Be the Fourth Human Revolution 187
12.3 THE AUTOMATION STORY SO FAR 188
12.3.1 The Mechanisation of Agriculture 188
12.3.2 One-Trick Ponies 189
12.3.3 Mechanisation and Automation 189
12.3.4 Retail and ‘Prosumers’ 190
12.3.5 Call Centres 191
12.3.6 Food Service 191
12.3.7 Manufacturing 192
12.3.8 Warehouses 193
Contents ■ xv
12.3.9 Secretaries 194
12.3.10 Early Days 194
12.4 THE LUDDITE FALLACY 194
12.4.1 Ned Ludd 195
12.4.2 The Fallacy 195
12.4.3 The Luddite Fallacy and Economic Theory 196
12.4.4 The Luddite Fallacy and Economic Experience 197
12.4.5 The ATM Myth 198
12.4.6 Is it Different This Time? 199
NOTES 199
Chapter 13 • Is It Different This Time? 201
13.1 WHAT PEOPLE DO 201
13.1.1 Jobs, not Work 202
13.1.2 Jobs and Tasks 202
13.1.3 Processing Information 203
13.1.4 Working with People 203
13.1.5 Manual Tasks 204
13.1.6 Tipping Points and Exponentials 204
13.1.7 The Gig Economy and the Precariat 205
13.2 THE POSTER CHILD FOR TECHNOLOGICAL
UNEMPLOYMENT: SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES 207
13.2.1 Why Introduce Self-Driving Vehicles? 207
13.2.2 To Autonomy and Beyond 208
13.2.3 Silicon Valley Pioneers 209
13.2.4 The Car Industry’s Response 211
13.2.5 The Countdown 212
13.2.6 Consumer and Commercial 212
13.2.7 Frictions 213
13.2.8 The Impact on Cities 213
13.2.9 Other Affected Industries 214
13.2.10 Programming Ethics 215
xvi ■ Contents
13.2.11 Driving Jobs 216
13.2.12 Road Rage against the Machine 218
WHO S NEXT? 219
13.3.1 Lower Income Service Jobs 220
13.3.1.1 Retail 220
13.3.1.2 Customer Preference 221
13.3.1.3 Call Centres 221
13.3.2 Manual Work 222
13.3.3 The Professions 223
13.3.3.1 Journalists 223
13.3.3.2 Other Writers 225
13.3.4 Lawyers 225
13.3.4.1 Discovery 225
13.3.4.2 Revealing the Iceberg 226
13.3.4.3 Forms 227
13.3.4.4 More Sophisticated Lawyering 227
13.3.5 Doctors 228
13.3.5.1 Better and Cheaper Diagnostics 229
13.3.5.2 Prescribing 230
13.3.5.3 Keeping Current 230
13.3.5.4 Operations 232
13.3.5.5 Education 232
13.3.6 Financial Services 233
13.3.6.1 Trading and Execution 234
13.3.6.2 Compliance 236
13.3.7 Software Development 236
SCEPTICAL ARGUMENTS 237
13.4.1 The Reverse Luddite Fallacy 237
13.4.2 Inexhaustible Demand 238
13.4.3 Icebergs 238
13.4.4 The Human Touch 239
Contents ■ xvii
13.4.5 Robot Therapist 240
13.4.6 Made by Hand 241
13.4.7 Entrepreneurs 242
13.4.8 Centaurs 243
13.4.9 The Magic Jobs Drawer 245
13.4.10 Artists 246
13.4.11 Education 248
13.5 CONCLUSION: YES, IT S DIFFERENT THIS TIME 249
13.5.1 Confidence 250
13.5.2 Optimism 251
NOTES 252
Chapter 14 ■ The Challenges 259
14.1 MEANING 260
14.1.1 The Meaning of Life 260
14.1.2 Meaning and Work 261
14.1.3 The Rich and the Retired 262
14.1.4 Virtually Happy 264
14.1.5 Helping Us Adjust 264
14.2 ECONOMIC CONTRACTION 265
14.3 INCOME 266
14.3.1 Universal Basic Income 267
14.3.2 Experiments 268
14.3.3 Socialism? 270
14.3.4 Inflationary? 271
14.3.5 Unaffordable? 272
14.3.6 The Laffer Curve 273
14.3.7 Let s Kill All the Bureaucrats 274
14.3.8 Taxing Robots 275
14.3.9 Unaffordable 276
14.3.10 One Out of Three Ain’t Good 277
xviii ■ Contents
14.3.11 Universal 277
14.3.12 Basic 111
14.3.13 Not UBI but Progressive Comfortable Income? 278
14.3.14 The Star Trek Economy 278
14.3.15 Abundance 279
14.3.16 Staying Innovative 281
14.3.17 A Footnote about Assets 282
14.4 ALLOCATION 284
14.4.1 The House on the Beach 284
14.4.2 VR to the Rescue? 285
14.5 COHESION 287
14.5.1 The Scenario of‘the Gods and the Useless’ 287
14.5.2 Brave New World 289
14.5.3 Will Capitalism Remain Fit for Purpose? 290
14.5.4 Collective Ownership 292
14.5.5 Blockchain 292
14.5.6 The Elites Dilemma 293
14.6 PANIC 294
14.6.1 Fear 295
14.6.2 Populism 296
14.6.3 Panic 297
NOTES 297
Chapter 15 ■ Four Scenarios________________________________301
15.1 NO CHANGE 301
15.1.1 The Productivity Paradox 303
15.2 FULL EMPLOYMENT 303
15.3 DYSTOPIAS 305
15.3.1 Fragile - Handle with Care 305
15.3.2 Preppers 307
15.3.3 Populism to Fascism 307
15.3.4 Fracture and Then Collapse 308
Contents ■ xix
15.4 PROTOPIA 308
15.4.1 Utopia, Dystopia, Protopia 309
15.4.2 The Good Life 310
15.4.3 The Fourth Scenario 310
NOTES 310
Chapter 16 ■ Protopian Un-forecast 311
16.1 CAVEAT 311
16.1.1 Three Snapshots of a Positive Scenario 311
16.1.2 Unpredictable Yet Inevitable 312
16.1.3 Un-forecasting 313
16.1.4 Super Un-forecasting 314
16.2 2025: PANIC AVERTED 315
16.3 2035: TRANSITION 319
16.4 2045: THE STAR TREK ECONOMY MATERIALISES 324
NOTE 328
Chapter 17 ■ The Economic Singularity: Summary and
Conclusions 329
17.1 SUMMARY OF THE ARGUMENT 329
17.1.1 Automation and Unemployment 329
17.1.2 Sceptics 330
17.1.3 The Upside 332
17.1.4 Challenges 332
17.1.5 Scenarios 334
17.2 WHAT IS TO BE DONE? 335
17.2.1 We Need a Plan 335
17.2.2 Monitoring and Forecasting 336
17.2.3 Scenario Planning 337
17.2.4 Global Problem, Global Solution 338
17.2.5 Upsides, Downsides and Timing 338
339
NOTES
XX ■ Contents
OUTRODUCTION, 341
APPENDIX, 347
INDEX, 365
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id | DE-604.BV044986847 |
illustrated | Illustrated |
indexdate | 2024-07-10T08:06:25Z |
institution | BVB |
isbn | 9780815368533 9780815368540 |
language | English |
lccn | 017056746 |
oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-030379119 |
oclc_num | 1042913528 |
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owner | DE-12 DE-91G DE-BY-TUM |
owner_facet | DE-12 DE-91G DE-BY-TUM |
physical | xxvii, 375 Seiten Illustrationen |
publishDate | 2018 |
publishDateSearch | 2018 |
publishDateSort | 2018 |
publisher | CRC Press |
record_format | marc |
series2 | Chapman & Hall/CRC artificial intelligence and robotics series |
spelling | Chace, Calum Verfasser aut Artificial intelligence and the two singularities by Calum Chace Boca Raton ; London ; New York CRC Press [2018] © 2018 xxvii, 375 Seiten Illustrationen txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Chapman & Hall/CRC artificial intelligence and robotics series 4 Includes bibliographical references Artificial intelligence Philosophy Artificial intelligence Social aspects Artificial intelligence Economic aspects Singularities (Artificial intelligence) Künstliche Intelligenz (DE-588)4033447-8 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Künstliche Intelligenz (DE-588)4033447-8 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030379119&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
spellingShingle | Chace, Calum Artificial intelligence and the two singularities Artificial intelligence Philosophy Artificial intelligence Social aspects Artificial intelligence Economic aspects Singularities (Artificial intelligence) Künstliche Intelligenz (DE-588)4033447-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
subject_GND | (DE-588)4033447-8 (DE-588)4047390-9 |
title | Artificial intelligence and the two singularities |
title_auth | Artificial intelligence and the two singularities |
title_exact_search | Artificial intelligence and the two singularities |
title_full | Artificial intelligence and the two singularities by Calum Chace |
title_fullStr | Artificial intelligence and the two singularities by Calum Chace |
title_full_unstemmed | Artificial intelligence and the two singularities by Calum Chace |
title_short | Artificial intelligence and the two singularities |
title_sort | artificial intelligence and the two singularities |
topic | Artificial intelligence Philosophy Artificial intelligence Social aspects Artificial intelligence Economic aspects Singularities (Artificial intelligence) Künstliche Intelligenz (DE-588)4033447-8 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
topic_facet | Artificial intelligence Philosophy Artificial intelligence Social aspects Artificial intelligence Economic aspects Singularities (Artificial intelligence) Künstliche Intelligenz Prognose |
url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030379119&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
work_keys_str_mv | AT chacecalum artificialintelligenceandthetwosingularities |