To dare more boldly: the audacious story of political risk
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Princeton ; Oxford
Princeton University Press
[2018]
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | xiv, 323 Seiten |
| ISBN: | 9780691172194 |
Internformat
MARC
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804178475997724672 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | ❖ CONTENTS ❖
❖ CHAPTER ONE
480 bc: Introduction—The First Political
Risk Analysts: The Pythia of Delphi l
The Pythia as the World s First Political
Risk Consultant 1
The Pythia Masters the Persians 2
The Merits of History 6
A Potted History of the Modern Political
Risk Business 11
Hans Morgenthau, Realism, and Modern
Geopolitical Risk 27
Brian Wilson and Greek Attributes 31
Back to the Past of the Pythia’s Lair to Glean
the Future of Geopolitical Risk Analysis 36
❖ CHAPTER TWO
31 ad: We Are the Risk; The Decline and
Fall of the Roman Empire 42
Edward Gibbon and How Political Risk
Analysts Think 42
The Rise of Sejanus and the Fall of the
Roman Empire 46
An Avoidable Tragedy in France and the
Root Cause of Europe’s Decline 49
Europe’s Ticking Demographic Time Bomb 52
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and Germany’s
Distrust of Success 56
x • Contents
The Sudden End of Europe’s Sunny Way of Life 59
The Political Naïveté of Lying about Europe’s
Gloomy Future 61
Rome Dies from Within 65
❖ CHAPTER THREE
1192 ad: Gaining Out Lunatics; The Assassins and the
Old Man of the Mountain 68
The Old Man of the Mountain Demonstrates
What Power Actually Is 68
Rashid ad-Din Sinan and the Benefits of Being
Seen as Crazy 70
The Elusive Madness of Charles Manson 73
The Method of ISIS’s Madness 78
Sinan Bests Saladin 84
Sinan Bests the Crusaders 86
❖ CHAPTER FOUR
1503 ad: Gaining Out Chess Players; Machiavelli*
Cesare Borgia, and Pope Julius II 92
Machiaveili Attempts a Comeback 92
Machiavelli Backs the Wrong Horse 95
Cesare Borgia’s Overrated Bond Villain Luster 99
Washington and Hamilton as Chess Players 103
Washington’s Farewell Address as Geopolitical Strategy 108
Julius Runs Rings around Borgia 112
The Prince with Julius as Hero 115
The Analytical Riches That Come from
Spotting Chess Players
119
Contents • xi
❖ CHAPTER FIVE
1776: Everything to Play For; John Adams
and Game-Changers 121
Adams Sees the Future, Jefferson Buys Gloves 121
The Political Miracle of the Fourth of July 124
Churchill Rejoices over Pearl Harbor 132
Hitler’s Fatal Error 138
The Declaration of Independence as Improbable Game-
Changer 141
The Limits to Even Adams’s Sagacity 145
❖ CHAPTER SIX
1797: Getting to Goldilocks; Napoleon and the
Venetian Republic 147
The Dangers of Analytical Overreaction 147
Venice’s Slow Castration 149
Manin Goes Out with a Whimper 151
Napoleon’s France as a Country on
Military Steroids 155
Bonaparte’s Predictable Fall as a Leader of a
Revolutionary Power 161
The Benefits of Balance 165
❖ CHAPTER SEVEN
1863: The Losing Gambler Syndrome;
Robert E. Lee at Gettysburg 167
Why Casino Magnates Get Rich: Gettysburg
and Vietnam 167
Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain Saves the Union 168
The United States Tragically Doubles Down in Vietnam 174
xii • Contents
Lee Fatally Goes for Broke with Pickett’s Charge 181
The Losing Gambler Syndrome as Beguiling
Analytical Trap 187
❖ CHAPTER EIGHT
1895: Knowing Your Country’s Place in the World;
Lord Salisbury Saves the British Empire 188
The Analytical Imperative of Seeing the
World as It Is 188
Salisbury’s Intellectual Courage in Confronting
His Changing World 189
The Merits of Off-shore Balancing 193
The Meiji Restoration Saves Japan 197
The Genro Face the World 201
Salisbury Finesses America over the
Venezuelan Crisis 203
Salisbury Saves His Country, Long after His Death 207
CHAPTER NINE
1898-1912: The Promised Land Fallacy;
Von Tirpitz Disastrously Builds a Navy 209
The Dangerous Mirage of the Promised Land Fallacy 209
Von Tirpitz Recklessly Challenges British
Naval Dominance 210
Khrushchev and the Limits of Brinkmanship 217
Khrushchev’s Ill-Fated “Wars of National
Liberation” Strategy 223
The Haldane Mission as the End of Tirpitz’s
Promised Land 229
Contents • xiii
❖ CHAPTER TEN
1970: Knowing the Nature of the World
You Live In; Or the Trials and Tribulations
of George Harrison 233
The Imperative of Understanding Time in the
Analytical Equation 233
The Beatles’ System Falls Stunningly Apart 234
The Rise of George Harrison 236
The Rolling Stones Regroup 238
The Fall of Brian Jones 239
The Beatles as a Frightening Metaphor for
Todays World 246
How the West Can Avoid the Beatles’ Fate 250
The Analytical Imperative to Closely Track Changes
in Systems 251
❖ CHAPTER ELEVEN
1978: The Butterfly Effect in Political Risk;
Or Deng Xiaoping and the Perils of a Drunken
Sea Captain 254
Mastering Real-World Bolts from the Blue 254
Deng Xiaoping Crafts China’s Successful Mercantilist
Foreign Policy 256
Deng Survives Mao and Transforms China 259
Macmillan Salvages Britain’s Place in the World 268
The Present Tinderbox in the Waters
Surrounding China 274
Today’s Asia as 1914 279
History Is Never Finished 283
xiv • Contents
❖ CHAPTER TWELVE
Conclusion: Back to the Pythia’s Lair;
Mastering Geopolitical Risk 284
Can the Future Be Foretold? 284
Kenneth Waltz and the Systemic Realism Underlying
Geopolitical Risk Analysis 284
“Know Thyself’ as the Base of the Geopolitical Risk
Analysis Typology 287
“Nothing in Excess” as a Branch of the Geopolitical Risk
Analysis Typology 292
“Make a Pledge and Mischief Is Nigh” as a Branch
of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis Typology 297
The End of the Pythia and the Beginning of Political
Risk Analysis 303
Acknowledgments 305
Bibliography 307
Index 313
|
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| spelling | Hulsman, John C. 1967- Verfasser (DE-588)140971165 aut To dare more boldly the audacious story of political risk John C. Hulsman Princeton ; Oxford Princeton University Press [2018] © 2018 xiv, 323 Seiten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geschichte gnd rswk-swf Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 gnd rswk-swf Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf World history World politics Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 s Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s Geschichte z DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-1-400-88944-0 Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030306236&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Hulsman, John C. 1967- To dare more boldly the audacious story of political risk Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4121490-0 (DE-588)4137042-9 |
| title | To dare more boldly the audacious story of political risk |
| title_auth | To dare more boldly the audacious story of political risk |
| title_exact_search | To dare more boldly the audacious story of political risk |
| title_full | To dare more boldly the audacious story of political risk John C. Hulsman |
| title_fullStr | To dare more boldly the audacious story of political risk John C. Hulsman |
| title_full_unstemmed | To dare more boldly the audacious story of political risk John C. Hulsman |
| title_short | To dare more boldly |
| title_sort | to dare more boldly the audacious story of political risk |
| title_sub | the audacious story of political risk |
| topic | Politisches Risiko (DE-588)4121490-0 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Politisches Risiko Risikoanalyse |
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