Expert p how good is it? How can we know?
Expert p: how good is it? How can we know?

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. etlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find th...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser: Tetlock, Philip E. (VerfasserIn)
Format: Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Princeton and Oxford Princeton University Press 2017
Ausgabe:New edition
Schlagworte:
Ideology
Political psychology
Meinung
Politik
Ideologie
Experte
Prognose
Politische Psychologie
Politikberatung
Online-Zugang:DE-1046
DE-M347
DE-898
DE-859
DE-860
DE-473
DE-706
DE-29
DE-739
DE-1043
DE-858
Volltext
Zusammenfassung:Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. etlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts
Beschreibung:Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 25. June 2018)
Beschreibung:1 Online-Ressource
ISBN:9781400888818
DOI:10.1515/9781400888818

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