Perception and misperception in international politics:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Princeton ; Oxford
Princeton University Press
2017
|
| Ausgabe: | New edition |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | xc, 445 Seiten |
| ISBN: | 9780691175850 9780691177434 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Perception and misperception in international politics |c Robert Jervis ; with a new preface by the author |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
PREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION XÍÜ
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS XCÍ
INTRODUCTION 3
Part I
The Setting
Chapter One
Perception and the Level of Analysis Problem 13
Do Perceptions Matter? 13
The International Environment 18
Compulsion in Extreme Circumstances? 19
Domestic Determinants 21
The Bureaucracy 24
Perceptions, Reality, and a Two-Step Model 28
Chapter Two
External Stimuli, Internal Processes, and Intentions 32
Introduction 32
External versus Internal Sources of Behavior 35
Intentions 48
Inaccurate Predictions about One’s Own Behavior 54
Chapter Three
Deterrence, the Spiral Model, and Intentions of the Adversary 58
Two Views of International Relations and the Cold War 58
Deterrence 58
The Spiral Model 62
Psychological Dynamics 67
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and Problems
with Incrementalism 76
Self-Defeating Power 78
Prescriptions 82
Universal Generalizations? 84
Evidence against the Spiral Model 84
Evidence against Deterrence 90
viii—Contents
Deterrence and World War II; Spiral Model
and World War I 94
When Will Force and Threats Work? The
Decision-Maker’s Choice 96
When Will Force and Threats Work? Hypotheses 100
Perceptions of Intention and Analyses of
What Is at Stake 102
Other Explanations for the Differences between
the Spiral and Deterrence Theories 107
Differences in Values 108
Claims for a Dominant Strategy 109
Dangers of Applying Gradualism to an
A ggressive A d versary 110
Suggestions 111
Part II
Processes of Perception
Chapter Four
Cognitive Consistency and the Interaction
between Theory and Data 117
Consistency: Rational and Irrational 117
Rational Consistency 119
Cognitive-Affective Balance 120
Source-Message Interaction 122
Implications 124
Irrational Consistency—Avoidance of
Value Trade-Offs 128
Assimilation of Information to Pre-existing Beliefs 143
The Impact of Expectations on Perceptions 145
The Necessary Interdependence of
Facts and Theories 154
The Interdependence between Facts and
Theories in Science 156
The Impact of Categorization 162
Different Theories, Different Perceptions 163
The Emergence of New Theories
and Images 165
Cognitive Distortion and Implications for
Decision-Making 172
Failure to Recognize the Influence of
Pre-Existing Beliefs 1 81
Contents—ix
Excessive and Premature Cognitive Closure 187
Implications for Decision-Making 191
Confidence, Commitment, and Ambiguity 195
Implications for Decision-Making 201
Chapter Five
The Impact of the Evoked Set 203
Evoked Set in the Absence of Communication 203
Communication and Estimating the Evoked
Set of the Other 205
Misunderstandings within a Government: Differences
in Information, Perspectives, and Time Lags 206
Uneven Distribution of Information within
Governments 209
Differences in Evoked Set Caused by Differences
in Concerns 211
Conclusions 215
Chapter Six
How Decision-Makers Learn from History 217
Introduction 217
Lessons as Predispositions 222
Alternative Explanations 225
The Learning Process 227
Organizational Learning 238
Events from Which People Learn Most 239
Firsthand Experiences 239
Some Consequences 243
Alternative Explanations 246
Early Experiences and Generational Effects 249
Generational Effects 253
Alternative Explanations 257
Delayed Impact on Policy 260
Events Important to the Person’s State or
Organization 262
Revolutions 262
The Last War 266
Range of Available Alternative Analogies 270
What Lessons Do People Learn? 271
Impact of Constant Factors 271
Lessons about Specific Actors 274
Reactions to Failure 275
x—Contents
Nothing Fails like Success 278
Alternative Explanations 279
Summary 281
Appendix: The Impact of Domestic Politics and
Training on Perceptual Predispositions 283
Learning from Domestic Politics 283
Training 287
Chapter Seven
Attitude Change 288
Introduction 288
Mechanisms of Attitude Preservation and Change 291
Centrality 297
The Rate at Which Discrepant Information Is Received 308
Beliefs Especially Resistant to Discrepant Information 310
Part III
Common Misperceptions
Chapter Eight
Perceptions of Centralization 319
Unity and Planning 319
Plans, Not Accidents and Confusion 321
One Actor, Not Several 323
Special Cases 326
Variables Encouraging the Perception of Unity
and Planning 327
Being Misinformed about One’s Own Behavior 329
Misinformation about Physical Effects 331
Disobedience by Agents 332
Causes of Disobedience 332
Types of Disobedience 333
Consequences of Lack of Awareness of Agents’
Behavior 334
Consequences of Perceptions of Unity and Planning 338
Chapter Nine
Overestimating One’s Importance as Influence or Target 343
Introduction 343
Overestimating One’s Effectiveness 344
Perceptions of Influence and Turning Points 348
Injury and Perceptions of the Other’s Autonomy 349
Contents — xi
Belief that the Other Understands that
You Are Not a Threat 354
Chapter Ten
The Influence of Desires and Fears on Perceptions 356
Wishful Thinking 356
Experiments: Lack of Incentives for Accuracy 357
Desires or Expectations? 359
Direct Impact of Affect 361
Experimental Manipulation of Affect 361
Judgments of Desirability and Probability 362
Other Experiments 363
Wishful Thinking in International Relations 365
Perceptions of Danger: Vigilance or Defense? 372
Avoidance of Perceptions of Extreme Probabilities 378
Summary 380
Chapter Eleven
Cognitive Dissonance and International Relations 382
Cognitive Dissonance Theory 382
Cognitive Dissonance and Inertia 387
The Magnitude of Dissonance 392
The Impact of Spending Resources 393
Incentives and Compulsion 399
Boomerang Effects 404
Summary 406
Part IV
In Lieu of Conclusions
Chapter Twelve
Minimizing Misperception 409
Making Assumptions and Predictions Explicit 410
Devil’s Advocates 415
Conversions 418
Identities and Missions 418
Awareness of Common Misperceptions 423
bibliography 425
index 433
|
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| id | DE-604.BV044331700 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:49:58Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780691175850 9780691177434 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029734937 |
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| physical | xc, 445 Seiten |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateSearch | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | Princeton University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Jervis, Robert 1940-2021 Verfasser (DE-588)124830927 aut Perception and misperception in international politics Robert Jervis ; with a new preface by the author New edition Princeton ; Oxford Princeton University Press 2017 © 1976 xc, 445 Seiten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd rswk-swf Wahrnehmungspsychologie (DE-588)4079011-3 gnd rswk-swf Willensbildung (DE-588)4127357-6 gnd rswk-swf Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 gnd rswk-swf Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 s Willensbildung (DE-588)4127357-6 s Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 s DE-604 Wahrnehmungspsychologie (DE-588)4079011-3 s Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029734937&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Jervis, Robert 1940-2021 Perception and misperception in international politics Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Wahrnehmungspsychologie (DE-588)4079011-3 gnd Willensbildung (DE-588)4127357-6 gnd Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4072885-7 (DE-588)4079011-3 (DE-588)4127357-6 (DE-588)4047704-6 |
| title | Perception and misperception in international politics |
| title_auth | Perception and misperception in international politics |
| title_exact_search | Perception and misperception in international politics |
| title_full | Perception and misperception in international politics Robert Jervis ; with a new preface by the author |
| title_fullStr | Perception and misperception in international politics Robert Jervis ; with a new preface by the author |
| title_full_unstemmed | Perception and misperception in international politics Robert Jervis ; with a new preface by the author |
| title_short | Perception and misperception in international politics |
| title_sort | perception and misperception in international politics |
| topic | Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Wahrnehmungspsychologie (DE-588)4079011-3 gnd Willensbildung (DE-588)4127357-6 gnd Psychologie (DE-588)4047704-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Internationale Politik Wahrnehmungspsychologie Willensbildung Psychologie |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029734937&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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