An econometric model of the US economy: structural analysis in 56 equations
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cham
Palgrave Macmillan
[2017]
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | xxx, 460 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9783319506807 3319506803 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a An econometric model of the US economy |b structural analysis in 56 equations |c John J. Heim |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cham |b Palgrave Macmillan |c [2017] | |
| 300 | |a xxx, 460 Seiten |b Diagramme | ||
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| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029441142 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804177039177023488 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
1 Introduction............................................... 1
1.1 Modem Macroeconomics; Moving from
the Methods of Economic Philosophy to Those of
Economic Science 5
1.2 Summary of Ways in Which This Large-
Scale Econometric Model Improves on Past Work 9
1.3 The 56‘Equation Model; 30 Behavioral Equations,
15 Identities (Product Side of National Income
and Product Accounts (NIPA)), and 8 Behavioral
Equations, 3 Identities (Income Side of NIPA) 14
1.4 The 38 Behavioral Equations: Coefficients,
Significance, R2, and Durbin Watson Tests:
(Summary of Results: Detailed Explanations of
Findings Presented in Chapters 4-20) 16
Part I Production of the GDP
2 Methodology................................................... 39
2.1 General Methodological Issues 40
2.2 Choosing Between VAR, DSGE, and
Cowles Commission Models 48
3 Literature Review............................................ 115
3.1 Lawrence Klein and Michael Evans (1968): The
Wharton Econometric Forecasting Model 116
xi
xii CONTENTS
3.2 Otto Eckstein’s (1983) The DRI Model of the U.S. Economy 125
3.3 Ray Fair’s Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works (2004) 131
3.4 Federal Reserve Board/U.S. Model (1996) 140
3.5 Literature Review Summary 144
4 The Consumption Models...................................... 147
4.1 Total Consumer Spending on Both Domestically
Produced and Imported Consumer Goods 151
4.2 Spending on Imported Consumer Goods — OLS Estimates 157
4.3 Spending on Imported Consumer Goods - 2SLS Estimates 161
4.4 Consumer Spending on Domestically Produced
Consumer Goods (OLS) 162
4.5 Determinants of Consumer Borrowing - OLS Estimates 166
4.6 Determinants of Consumer Borrowing - 2SLS Estimates 168
4.7 Modeling the Major Components of Total Consumption 171
4.8 Determinants of Spending on Consumer Durables (OLS) 172
4.9 Determinants of Spending on Consumer Durables (2SLS) 172
4.10 Determinants of Spending on Consumer
Nondurables (OLS) 176
4.11 Determinants of Spending on Consumer
Nondurables (2SLS) 177
4.12 Determinants of Spending on Consumer Services (OLS) 180
4.13 Determinants of Spending on Consumer Services (2SLS) 181
5 Models Identifying the Determinants of Investment
Spending and Borrowing................................... . 185
5.1 OLS Estimates of the Determinants of Total
Investment Spending 188
5.2 2SLS Estimates of the Determinants of Total Investment 189
5.3 OLS Estimates of the Determinants of Domestically
Produced Investment Goods 192
5.4 2SLS Estimates of the Determinants of
Domestically Produced Investment Goods 193
5.5 OLS Estimates of the Determinants of Imported
Investment Goods 197
5.6 2SLS Estimates of the Determinants of Imported
Investment Goods 198
5.7 An Alternative Method of Calculating Coefficients
in the Investment Imports Model 201
CONTENTS XIII
5.8 OLS Estimates of the Determinants of Investment
Borrowing 203
5.9 Determinants of Spending on Fixed Plant and
Equipment Investment (OLS) 207
5.10 Determinants of Spending on Fixed Plant and
Equipment Investment (2SLS) 208
5.11 Determinants of Spending on Residential
Investment (OLS) 212
5.12 Determinants of Spending on Residential
Investment (2SLS ) 215
5.13 Determinants of Spending on Inventory
Investment (OLS) 215
6 The Exports Demand Equation............................... 221
6.1 OLS Model of Export Demand 225
7 Statistically Estimated Real GDP Determination
Functions (“IS” Curves)................................... 229
7.1 The GDP as a Function of the Determinants of
Domestically Produced Consumer and Investment
Goods and Services, Government Spending and
Exports (GDP - Cd + Id + G + X) 230
7.2 The GDP as a Function of the Determinants of
Total Consumer and Investment Goods
and Services, Government Spending, and
Exports Minus Imports (GDP = Cj + It + G + X — M) 236
8 Real GDP Determination Function (“IS” Curve)
Coefficients Aggregated from Parameter
Estimates Obtained by Statistically Estimating the
Subcomponent Functions Comprising the GDP.............. 239
8.1 Using the GDP Determination Model
GDP = CD + Id + GD + X 239
8.2 Using the GDP Determination Model
GDP = Ct + It + Gt+(X-M) 246
9 Determinants of the Prime Interest Rate: Taylor
Rule Method............................................... 253
9.1 OLS Estimates 254
9.2 2SLS Estimates 255
XIV CONTENTS
10 Determinants of the Prime Interest Rate - LM
Curve Method.............................................. 259
10.1 OLS Models of the LM Curve 259
10.2 2SLS Models of the LM Curve 260
11 Determinants of Inflation - The Phillips Curve Model .... 265
11.1 Reconciling the Money Supply Variable
in the Taylor Rule and LM Equation Interest Rate
Models with the Money Supply Variable in the
Inflation (Phillips Curve) Equation 269
12 Determinants of Unemployment.............................. 273
12.1 A Simple OLS Model Based on Okun’s Law 273
12.2 The 2SLS Okun Model 276
12.3 The OLS Technological Change Model 279
12.4 The 2SLS Technological Change Model 280
13 The Savings Functions...................................... 285
13.1 The Corporate Savings Function 285
13.2 The Depreciation Allowances Savings Function 291
13.3 Personal Savings 296
14 Determinants of Government Receipts...................... 303
14.1 Contributions to Explained Variance 304
14.2 Robustness Over Time 304
14.3 Robustness to Model Specification Changes
(1960-2010 Data Set) 307
15 Endogeneity of Government
Spending Levels........................................... 309
15.1 The Model for Total Government Spending for All
Purposes: Goods, Services, and Transfers 309
15.2 The Model for Government Spending on Goods
and Services Only 313
16 Capacity of the Model to Explain Behavior
of the Macroeconomy Beyond the Period Used to
Estimate the Model....................................... 317
16.1 Model #1 Treating All Determinants of C, I, and X
as Exogenous
318
CONTENTS XV
16.2 Model 2: Treating C, I, and X Model Determinants
for Which We Have Explanatory Functions as Endogenous 322
17 Converting the Older Keynesian IS-LM Model to
the More Modern AS-AD Interpretation of the
Keynesian Model........................................... 331
17.1 Short-and Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curves 331
17.2 The Aggregate Demand Curve and the Role of
Velocity In Aggregate Demand 332
17.3 OLS Tests of Ml Velocity’s Determinants 338
17.4 2SLS Tests of Ml Velocity’s Determinants 342
17.5 OLS Tests of M2 Velocity’s Determinants 346
17.6 Which Determinants of GDP Are Also
Determinants of Velocity 352
17.7 Stationarity Issues 359
17.8 Alternative Method: Calculating Impact of
Determinants of GDP on Velocity Using
Regression Coefficients Obtained Estimating
Consumption, Investment, and Export Functions 359
18 Dynamics.................................................... 363
18.1 Introduction 363
19 Summary and Conclusions (Production Side of the
NIPA Accounts)............................................. 373
19.1 Other Major Findings 376
Part II Income Side of the NIPA Accounts
20 Determinants of Factor Shares............................... 381
20.1 Introduction, Theory of Factor Shares, and
Summary of Findings 381
20.2 Literature on Factor Shares 394
20.3 Methodology 397
20.4 Determinants of Labor, Profits, Rent, and Interest
Factor Shares and Income Levels 400
20.5 Summary and Conclusions (Income Side
of the NIPA Accounts) 441
Bibliography.................................................. 445
Index........................................................... 451
|
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| id | DE-604.BV044033939 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:41:44Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783319506807 3319506803 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Heim, John J. Verfasser (DE-588)1124246592 aut An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations John J. Heim Cham Palgrave Macmillan [2017] xxx, 460 Seiten Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 s DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-3-319-50681-4 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029441142&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Heim, John J. An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4043212-9 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations |
| title_auth | An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations |
| title_exact_search | An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations |
| title_full | An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations John J. Heim |
| title_fullStr | An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations John J. Heim |
| title_full_unstemmed | An econometric model of the US economy structural analysis in 56 equations John J. Heim |
| title_short | An econometric model of the US economy |
| title_sort | an econometric model of the us economy structural analysis in 56 equations |
| title_sub | structural analysis in 56 equations |
| topic | Ökonometrisches Modell (DE-588)4043212-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Ökonometrisches Modell USA |
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