The global financial crisis and its aftermath: hidden factors in the meltdown
Gespeichert in:
| Weitere Verfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York
Oxford University Press
[2016]
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | xx, 500 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9780199386222 9780199386239 |
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| adam_text | THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS AFTERMATH
/ / /
: : : 2016
TABLE OF CONTENTS / INHALTSVERZEICHNIS
^^ - THREE ETHICAL DIMENSIONS OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS / ANTONIO
ARGANDONAN
EPILOGUE
LESSONS FOR FUTURE FINANCIAL STABILITY / A.G. MALLIARIS, LESLIE SHAW,
AND HERSH SHEFRIN
DIESES SCHRIFTSTCK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT.
CONTENTS
Preface and Acknowledgments xiii
Contributors xv
PART ONE Introduction
1. The Global Financial Crisis and Its Aftermath 3
A.G. Malliaris, Leslie Shaw, and Hersh Shefrin
Introduction 3
A Multidisciplinary Methodology 5
Orthodox Economics and Financial Crises 6
A Classic Financial Panic 8
Contributions from Economics 9
Contributions from Psychology 15
Values 18
Epilogue 21
References 21
PART TWO The Global Financial Crisis of2007-2009 and Economics
2. From Asset Price Bubbles to Liquidity Traps 25
A.G. Malliaris
Introduction 25
Purpose of This Chapter 26
What Is Financial Instability? 30
Methodology 35
The Recent Global Financial Crisis 38
The Expansion Phase 39
The Upper Turning Period 45
The Great Recession of2007-2009 48
The Liquidity Trap: The Lower Turning Period 49
Conclusions 52
Notes 53
References 53
3. A Minsky Meltdown 57
Janet Yellen
Minsky and the Current Crisis 57
Bubbles and Monetary Policy 60
vi
CONTENTS
Another Important Tool for Financial Stability 63
Notes 64
4. Modeling Financial Instability 67
Steve Keen
Introduction 67
Loanable Funds vs. Endogenous Money 68
A Monetary Model of Loanable Funds 69
A Monetary Model of Endogenous Money 75
Occam’s Razor Passes Endogenous Money and Fails Loanable Funds 78
Simulating Loanable Funds and Endogenous Money 78
Modeling Financial Instability 81
Empirical Data 86
Conclusion 88
Appendix 89
Loanable Funds Model 89
Endogenous Money Model 89
Goodwin model 91
Minsky Model (New and Modified Equations Only) 92
Common Parameters to Goodwin and Minsky Models 92
Minsky 92
Notes 98
References 100
5. Assessing the Contribution of Hyman Minsky’s Perspective to Our
Understanding of Economic Instability 104
Hersh Shefrin
Introduction 104
Eight Elements in Minskys Perspective 105
Minsky and FCIC Juxtaposed 108
Psychology in Minsky’s Perspective 123
Excessive Optimism 123
Overconfidence 124
Aspiration-Based Risk Seeking and Aversion to a Sure Loss 125
Confirmation Bias 126
Representativeness 126
Reaction to Minsky’s Work 126
Diverse Perspectives 127
Lack of Contagion, Self-Interest, and Confirmation Bias 130
Conclusion: Self-Interest Colored by Confirmation Bias 133
Appendix 134
Notes 136
References 139
Contents
vii
6. Prelude to the Global Financial Credit Crisis 143
John Silvia
The Things We Take for Granted—and Their Economic Implications 143
Secular Shifts Masked by Short-Term Economic Prosperity 144
Pushing the Credit Envelope 149
Home Prices Fail to Meet Expectations: The Economic Shock 151
Feedback from the Change: Change Begets Credit Revulsion 152
Feedback from the Change: Impact on the Labor Market 153
Economic Growth without a Labor Market Recovery 153
An Altered Framework for the Labor Market 154
The Reservation Wage Model 156
Legacy of a Disparate Labor Market after the Credit Crisis 158
Duration of Unemployment: No Sign of Recovery for Many Workers 158
A Permanent Drop in the Employment Ratio? 161
Regional Disparities Reflect Industry Concentrations 163
New American Phenomenon: Constrained Worker Mobility 165
The “Mancession,” the “Mancovery” and Industry Mix 165
Where Race and Ethnicity Matter 167
Participation Rates: Older Workers Stay Longer, Younger
Workers Quit? 167
Unequal Education = Unequal Recession 168
Dual Returns to Education; Higher Income and Lower Unemployment 169
Hard Realities: Fewer Jobs for the 20th-Century Worker in the
21st Century 170
Show Me the Money: Wages and Hours 171
Income Growth: Still below Pre-Recession Pace 171
A Monetary Policy Disconnect? 171
Conclusion 174
Notes 175
7. Mathematical Definition, Mapping, and Detection of (Anti)Fragility 177
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Raphael Douady
Introduction 177
What Is Fragility? 177
Fragility as Separate Risk from Psychological Preferences 179
Detection Heuristic 181
Fragility and Transfer Theorems 182
Tail-Vega Sensitivity 182
Mathematical Expression of Fragility 185
Definition of Fragility: The Intrinsic Case 186
Definition of Fragility; The Inherited Case 186
Implications of a Nonlinear Change of Variable on the Intrinsic Fragility 187
Theorem 1 (Fragility Transfer Theorem) 188
Proof 188
Theorem 2 (Fragility Exacerbation Theorem) 189
Discussion 190
Viii
CONTENTS
Monomodal case 190
Scaling Parameter 190
Fragility Drift 191
Second-Order Fragility 191
Definitions of Robustness and Antifragility 192
Definition of Robustness 192
Example of Robustness (Barbells) 193
Definition of Antifragility 193
Remarks 194
Applications to Model Error 195
Case 1: Application to Deficits 196
Model Error and Semi-Bias as Nonlinearity from Missed Stochasticity
of Variables 197
Model Bias, Second-Order Effects, and Fragility 197
The Fragility/Mo del Error Detection Heuristic (Detecting coa and cob
when Cogent) 198
The Heuristic 199
Properties of the Heuristic 199
Comparison of the Heuristic to Other Methods 200
Further Applications 200
Acknowledgments 201
References 201
PART THREE The Global Financial Crisis of2007-2009 and Psychology
8. The Varieties of Incentive Experience 205
Robert Wi Kolb
Introduction 205
The Range of Incentives 206
A Taxonomy of Incentives 210
Conclusion 222
Notes 222
References 223
9. Goals and the Organization of Choice under Risk in Both the Long Run
and the Short Run 226
Lola Lopes
The Exceedingly Long (and Mostly Unexamined) History of Thought on
Risky Choice 227
Distributional Thinking: Ruin and Safety-First 228
Modeling Distributional Thinking 229
Gambling When You Must: Aspiration and Bold Play 231
Demonstrating Security-Potential and Aspiration Level in the Lab 232
Concluding Thoughts on the Importance of Application 236
References 238
Contents
ix
10. The Topology of Greed and Fear 240
Graciela Chichilnisky
Introduction 240
Background and Examples 243
Two Approaches to Decision Theory 244
The Topology of Fear and the Value of Life 246
How People Value Their Lives 246
Gerard Debreu and the Invisible Hand 247
The Axiom of Choice and Rare Events 248
Representing a Purely Finitely Additive Measure 248
Appendix 250
Arrow s Definition of Monotone Continuity (MC) 250
The Dual Space 252
Notes 251
References 254
11. A Sustainable Understanding of Instability in Minds and Markets 257
Leslie Shaw
Introduction 257
Part One: The Psychology-Psychoanalysis Divide 261
Part Two: Irrationality as a Psycho-Philosophical Problem 266
Part Three: A Sustainable Understanding of Instability 269
Notes 274
References 277
12* Existence of Monopoly in the Stock Market 279
Viktoria Dalko, Lawrence R. Klein, S. Prakash Sethi, and Michael H. Wang
Introduction 279
Existence of Monopolistic Tendencies in the Stock Market 281
Comparison between Monopoly Power in the Financial, and the Goods
and Services Markets 282
Market Manipulation is Widespread, Frequent, and Occasionally
Rampant 284
A Model of an Information-Based Manipulative Trading Strategy 285
The Set-Up of the Model and Related Literature 285
The Model and Results 287
Discussion of the Results 292
Under What Conditions Can the Strategic Trader Profit from
Information-Based Manipulation? 292
Under the Above Conditions, Do the Perception-Guided Investors Realize
Gain or Loss? 293
What Is the Source of Thought Contagion, Leading to the
Perception-Guided Investors Herding? 294
Why Do Positive Returns Reverse after the Announcement of
Good News? 294
X
CONTENTS
What Risks Can This Type of Trading Strategy Create for the
Target Stock? 295
Concluding Remarks and Future Research 296
Notes 297
References 299
13. Crisis of Authority 302
Werner De Bondt
The Aftermath of 2007-2008 306
The Disappearing Middle Class 307
The New Normal in the Labor Market 309
Worry and Discontent 309
Pervasive Cynicism 312
Trust and Distrust: Multicountry Evidence 314
Trust and Distrust in US and UK Public Institutions 317
Trust and Distrust in Professions 318
Job Approval Ratings for Government Leaders 320
Root Causes 323
Technological Change 324
Globalization 325
Less Social Cohesion and Civic Virtue 326
Bureaucratic and Political Malfunctions 328
Irrational Fears and Expectations 329
Conclusion 331
Acknowledgments 332
References 332
14. Social Structure, Power, and Financial Fraud 340
Brooke Harrington
IBGYBG 340
The Sociological Perspective on Fraud and Financial Crises 341
Structure and Moral Agency 343
Fraud and Power in a Financialized World 344
State Power and Financial Fraud 345
International Capital Flows and an Industry “Too Complex
to Regulate 347
Conclusion 349
References 350
PART FOUR The Global Financial Crisis of2007-2009 and Values
15. Economics, Self Psychology, and Ethics 359
John Biker
Modern Economic Society 361
The Economic Subject 362
The Economic Subject and Ethics 364
Contents
xi
Self-Psychology 367
Self-Psychology and the Economic World 371
Conclusions and Recommendations 373
Notes 375
References 375
16. Financial Professionals in the Market for Status 376
Meir Statman
Status 376
Understanding the Market for Status and Modifying It 377
CultureWars 378
The Benefits and Costs of the Work of Financial Professionals 380
Conclusion 381
Notes 382
References 382
17. Why Risk Management Failed 384
John Boatright
Introduction 384
Risk Management in the Crisis 384
Criticism of Risk Management 386
The Use of Risk Management 387
The Managerialization of Risk 390
Social Impacts of Risk Management 392
The Purpose (s) of Risk Management 393
Conclusion 395
Notes 396
References 396
18. The Global Financial Crisis and Social Justice 399
Paul FitzgeraldSJ
Scriptural Foundations of Catholic Social Doctrine 400
Historical Foundations of Catholic Social Doctrine 402
The Run-Up to the Global Financial Crisis 404
Toward an Ethic of Virtuous Business Leadership 406
A Global Solution 409
Conclusion 410
Notes 410
19. Three Ethical Dimensions of the Financial Crisis 413
Antonio Argandona
The Financial Crisis 413
Personal Ethics 415
The Ethics of Organizations 416
The Social Dimension of Ethics 418
xii
CONTENTS
Conclusion 421
Notes 423
References 425
20. The Moral Benefits of Financial Crises 429
John Dobson
Introduction 429
The Global Financial Crisis 431
The VPI Model 433
The MacIntyre View 436
The Moore-Keat View 437
The Role of Financial Crises 440
Financial Crises as Arbiters between Primary and Secondary Virtues 443
Implications for Financial Institutions 445
The Example of Goldman Sachs 446
Conclusion 448
References 448
PART FIVE Epilogue
21. Lessons for Future Financial Stability 453
A. G. Malliaris, Leslie Shaw, and Hersh Shefrin
Introduction 453
Economics and Psychology: History as Prologue 454
Hyman Minsky and Fundamental Issues 462
Main Conclusions 464
References 465
Index 467
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| spelling | The global financial crisis and its aftermath hidden factors in the meltdown edited by A.G. Malliaris, Leslie Shaw and Hersh Shefrin New York Oxford University Press [2016] © 2016 xx, 500 Seiten Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Geschichte 2007-2009 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftspolitik Financial crises Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Economic policy Social justice Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftliches Verhalten (DE-588)4197971-0 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift gnd-content (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 s Wirtschaftliches Verhalten (DE-588)4197971-0 s Geschichte 2007-2009 z b DE-604 Malliaris, Anastasios G. 1942- (DE-588)12468498X edt Shaw, Leslie edt Shefrin, Hersh 1948- (DE-588)122258665 edt LoC Fremddatenuebernahme application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029292640&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029292640&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | The global financial crisis and its aftermath hidden factors in the meltdown Wirtschaftspolitik Financial crises Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Economic policy Social justice Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd Wirtschaftliches Verhalten (DE-588)4197971-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)7635855-0 (DE-588)4197971-0 (DE-588)1071861417 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | The global financial crisis and its aftermath hidden factors in the meltdown |
| title_auth | The global financial crisis and its aftermath hidden factors in the meltdown |
| title_exact_search | The global financial crisis and its aftermath hidden factors in the meltdown |
| title_full | The global financial crisis and its aftermath hidden factors in the meltdown edited by A.G. Malliaris, Leslie Shaw and Hersh Shefrin |
| title_fullStr | The global financial crisis and its aftermath hidden factors in the meltdown edited by A.G. Malliaris, Leslie Shaw and Hersh Shefrin |
| title_full_unstemmed | The global financial crisis and its aftermath hidden factors in the meltdown edited by A.G. Malliaris, Leslie Shaw and Hersh Shefrin |
| title_short | The global financial crisis and its aftermath |
| title_sort | the global financial crisis and its aftermath hidden factors in the meltdown |
| title_sub | hidden factors in the meltdown |
| topic | Wirtschaftspolitik Financial crises Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Economic policy Social justice Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd Wirtschaftliches Verhalten (DE-588)4197971-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaftspolitik Financial crises Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 Economic policy Social justice Finanzkrise Wirtschaftliches Verhalten Konferenzschrift Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029292640&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029292640&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT malliarisanastasiosg theglobalfinancialcrisisanditsaftermathhiddenfactorsinthemeltdown AT shawleslie theglobalfinancialcrisisanditsaftermathhiddenfactorsinthemeltdown AT shefrinhersh theglobalfinancialcrisisanditsaftermathhiddenfactorsinthemeltdown |
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Inhaltsverzeichnis