Determinants of growth spells: is Africa different?
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Place of publication not identified]
International Monetary Fund
2012
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper
WP/12/227 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | FAW01 FAW02 FLA01 |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Identifying Growth Spells and Their Determinants; A. From Structural Breaks to Growth Spells; B. Determinants of Growth Spells; III. Empirical Strategy; A. Survival Models; B. BMA for survival models; C. Model Specification and Africa Interactions; IV. Results; A. Impact of Model Uncertainty; B. Robustness Analysis Using BMA; V. Conclusion; References; Tables; 1. Growth Breaks by Country Group; 2. Stylized Facts about Growth Spells; 3. Evidence for Lack of Robustness from Ad Hoc Growth Regressions 4. Posterior Coefficient Estimates for Growth Spells for Africa, Non-Africa, and WorldFigures; 1a. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus; 1b. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus in Africa; 2a. Distribution of Upbreaks; 2b. Distribution of Downbreaks; 3. Duration of Growth Spells and Explanatory Variables; Appendix Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine determinants of growth spells in Africa and the rest of the world using Bayesian Mode Averaging techniques for proportional hazards models. We define growth spells as periods of sustained growth episodes between growth accelerations and decelerations and then relate the probability that a growth spell ends to various determinants including exogenous shocks, physical and human capital, macroeconomic policy, and sociopolitical factors. Our analysis suggests that determinants of growth spells in Africa are different from those in the rest of the world. The majority of the identified robust determinants have a distinct impact in only one of the two samples: initial income, terms of trade, exchange rate undervaluation and inflation, influence spells only in the world sample, while openness and droughts seem to only affect Africa. In addition, a few common determinants - proxies for human and physical capital and changes in the world interest rate - have very different marginal effects in the two samples |
| ISBN: | 1475566182 9781475566185 9781475537321 1475537328 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Tsangarides, Charalambos G. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Determinants of growth spells |b is Africa different? |c [prepared by] Charalambos G. Tsangarides |
| 264 | 1 | |a [Place of publication not identified] |b International Monetary Fund |c 2012 | |
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| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references | ||
| 500 | |a Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Identifying Growth Spells and Their Determinants; A. From Structural Breaks to Growth Spells; B. Determinants of Growth Spells; III. Empirical Strategy; A. Survival Models; B. BMA for survival models; C. Model Specification and Africa Interactions; IV. Results; A. Impact of Model Uncertainty; B. Robustness Analysis Using BMA; V. Conclusion; References; Tables; 1. Growth Breaks by Country Group; 2. Stylized Facts about Growth Spells; 3. Evidence for Lack of Robustness from Ad Hoc Growth Regressions | ||
| 500 | |a 4. Posterior Coefficient Estimates for Growth Spells for Africa, Non-Africa, and WorldFigures; 1a. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus; 1b. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus in Africa; 2a. Distribution of Upbreaks; 2b. Distribution of Downbreaks; 3. Duration of Growth Spells and Explanatory Variables; Appendix | ||
| 500 | |a Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine determinants of growth spells in Africa and the rest of the world using Bayesian Mode Averaging techniques for proportional hazards models. We define growth spells as periods of sustained growth episodes between growth accelerations and decelerations and then relate the probability that a growth spell ends to various determinants including exogenous shocks, physical and human capital, macroeconomic policy, and sociopolitical factors. Our analysis suggests that determinants of growth spells in Africa are different from those in the rest of the world. The majority of the identified robust determinants have a distinct impact in only one of the two samples: initial income, terms of trade, exchange rate undervaluation and inflation, influence spells only in the world sample, while openness and droughts seem to only affect Africa. In addition, a few common determinants - proxies for human and physical capital and changes in the world interest rate - have very different marginal effects in the two samples | ||
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| spelling | Tsangarides, Charalambos G. Verfasser aut Determinants of growth spells is Africa different? [prepared by] Charalambos G. Tsangarides [Place of publication not identified] International Monetary Fund 2012 txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF working paper WP/12/227 Includes bibliographical references Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Identifying Growth Spells and Their Determinants; A. From Structural Breaks to Growth Spells; B. Determinants of Growth Spells; III. Empirical Strategy; A. Survival Models; B. BMA for survival models; C. Model Specification and Africa Interactions; IV. Results; A. Impact of Model Uncertainty; B. Robustness Analysis Using BMA; V. Conclusion; References; Tables; 1. Growth Breaks by Country Group; 2. Stylized Facts about Growth Spells; 3. Evidence for Lack of Robustness from Ad Hoc Growth Regressions 4. Posterior Coefficient Estimates for Growth Spells for Africa, Non-Africa, and WorldFigures; 1a. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus; 1b. Upbreaks and Downbreaks: Hills, Cliffs, Mountains, and Plateaus in Africa; 2a. Distribution of Upbreaks; 2b. Distribution of Downbreaks; 3. Duration of Growth Spells and Explanatory Variables; Appendix Do growth spells in Africa end because of bad realizations of the same factors that influence growth spells in the rest of the world, or because of different factors altogether? To answer this question, we examine determinants of growth spells in Africa and the rest of the world using Bayesian Mode Averaging techniques for proportional hazards models. We define growth spells as periods of sustained growth episodes between growth accelerations and decelerations and then relate the probability that a growth spell ends to various determinants including exogenous shocks, physical and human capital, macroeconomic policy, and sociopolitical factors. Our analysis suggests that determinants of growth spells in Africa are different from those in the rest of the world. The majority of the identified robust determinants have a distinct impact in only one of the two samples: initial income, terms of trade, exchange rate undervaluation and inflation, influence spells only in the world sample, while openness and droughts seem to only affect Africa. In addition, a few common determinants - proxies for human and physical capital and changes in the world interest rate - have very different marginal effects in the two samples BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Industries / General bisacsh Economic development fast Economic history fast Industrie Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wirtschaftsentwicklung Ökonometrisches Modell Economic development Africa Econometric models Afrika International Monetary FundXXbResearch Department Sonstige oth |
| spellingShingle | Tsangarides, Charalambos G. Determinants of growth spells is Africa different? BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Industries / General bisacsh Economic development fast Economic history fast Industrie Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wirtschaftsentwicklung Ökonometrisches Modell Economic development Africa Econometric models |
| title | Determinants of growth spells is Africa different? |
| title_auth | Determinants of growth spells is Africa different? |
| title_exact_search | Determinants of growth spells is Africa different? |
| title_full | Determinants of growth spells is Africa different? [prepared by] Charalambos G. Tsangarides |
| title_fullStr | Determinants of growth spells is Africa different? [prepared by] Charalambos G. Tsangarides |
| title_full_unstemmed | Determinants of growth spells is Africa different? [prepared by] Charalambos G. Tsangarides |
| title_short | Determinants of growth spells |
| title_sort | determinants of growth spells is africa different |
| title_sub | is Africa different? |
| topic | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Industries / General bisacsh Economic development fast Economic history fast Industrie Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wirtschaftsentwicklung Ökonometrisches Modell Economic development Africa Econometric models |
| topic_facet | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Industries / General Economic development Economic history Industrie Wirtschaft Wirtschaft. Geschichte Wirtschaftsentwicklung Ökonometrisches Modell Economic development Africa Econometric models Afrika |
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