Debt and distortion: risks and reforms in the Chinese financial system
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
London
Palgrave Macmillan
[2016]
|
| Schlagworte: | |
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| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (xviii, 270 Seiten) Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9781137534019 |
| DOI: | 10.1057/978-1-137-53401-9 |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Capital Markets | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Financial History | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Finanzwirtschaft | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-FWS_katkey | 625746 |
|---|---|
| _version_ | 1806180150117662720 |
| adam_text | Titel: Debt and distortion
Autor: Armstrong-Taylor, Paul
Jahr: 2016
Contents
Part I Current Economic Model 1
1 Growth Model 3
How Did China Grow So Fast? 3
Why Can This Growth Not Be Sustained? 6
2 Financial Risks 11
Minsky s Theory or Financial Crises 12
japan 13
USA 16
China 19
3 Financial Repression 25
What Were the Effects oi Financial Repression? 27
Transfers Wealth from Households to Firms and Government 27
Excessive Investment 28
Depressed Consumption 29
Inefficiency 30
High Asset Prices 31
Why Did Investors Not Move Money from Deposits to Other
Investments? 32
Shadow Bank Products 32
Stocks 33
Bonds 34
Real Estate 34
VII
viii Contents
International Investment 35
What Would Be the Effects and Risks of Liberalizing
Interest Rates? 35
Deposits 36
Loans 3
Asset Prices 39
4 Government Guarantees 41
Role of Financial System in Managing Risk 42
Government Guarantees and Moral Hazard 45
Effect ol Government Guarantees on Financial Risk 4~
Sol vena» Risk 4~
Liquidity Risk 49
Systematic Risk 51
5 International Distortions 5 5
Undervalued Currency 55
Problems 55
Restrictions on International Capital Flows 58
Advantages of Closed Capital Accounts 59
Disadvantages of Closed Capital Accounts 60
6 Overview 63
Part II Domestic Reforms 65
~7
7 Banking 67
Liberalizing Interest Rates 6
Competition for State-Owned Banks 70
Better Incentives for Bank Officials 73
Improved Risk Management 75
8 Shadow Banking 81
Trust Companies and Wealth Management Products 84
Purpose 84
Risks 85
Benefits 86
Reforms 87
Informal Lending and the Wenzhou Crisis 88
Contents ix
Wenzhou Model 89
Wenzhou s Financial Crisis 89
Lessons from Wenzhou 91
Wenzhou Reforms 92
Loan Guarantee Firms 94
Purpose 94
Risks 95
Reforms 97
9 Stock Markets 99
Advantages of Equity over Debt 99
Immaturity of China s Stock Markets 101
Volatility 101
Corporate Governance 104
Capital Controls 107
Government Intervention 108
Unlocking the Potential of the Stock Market 110
Reduced Government Involvement 110
Corporate Governance 112
Capital Controls 114
i 0 Bond Markets 117
Bonds over Banks: Market Forces and Liquidity 117
Characteristics: Large but Illiquid 118
Risks: Challenges to Banks and Government Control 121
Reforms: Finding the Middle Path 122
11 Local Government Debt 125
Causes, Scale, and Characteristics 125
Conflict Between Central and Local Governments 125
Centralization of Tax Revenue 126
Distorted Incentives 127
Scale and Characteristics of Debt 129
Local Government Debt: A Nexus of Financial Risk 131
Solvency and Liquidity Risk 131
Links to the Financial System 133
Links to the Real Estate Market 133
Risks to the Broader Economy 135
Balancing Local Government Debt Reform
with Economic Growth 135
Stock and Flow Problems 135
x Contents
Development of Local Government Bond Market 138
Funding Gap 140
Implications of Reform 14 1
12 Real Estate Market 145
Does China Have a Real Estate Bubble? 145
How Would a Real Estate Crash Affect China s Economy? 148
Households 148
Local Government and Corporate Risk 1 50
Reducing Risks from the Real Estate Sector 1 53
Reduce Real Estate Risk 1 53
Insulating the Financial System from Real Estate Risk 1 55
Part III International Reforms 159
13 Exchange Rate Liberalization 161
Renminbi: From Undervalued to Overvalued? 162
Pre-2008 162
2009 Onwards 164
Letting Go: Moving to a Floating Exchange Rate 166
Loosening Control over the Exchange Rate 166
Relationship Between Exchange Rate Liberalization
and Other Reforms 167
14 Renminbi Internationalization 169
Benefits and Barriers to Internationalization 1 70
Trade Settlement 170
Investment and Reserves 1 72
Short History of Internationalization 174
Challenges of Managing Risk with International Currency 1 76
Impact of Internationalization on China and the World 179
Domestic 179
Politics 182
International 183
15 Capital Account Liberalization 185
Treacherous Tides: Risks of International Capital Flows 186
Financial Freedom and Political Commitment:
Benefits of an Open Capital Account 188
Contents xi
Tentative Steps: Progress to Capital Account Liberalization 189
Portfolio Flows 189
Direct Investment 190
Unofficial Capital Flows 193
Policy Laboratories: Free Trade Zones 195
16 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
and the New Silk Road 199
Infrastructure Investment 200
Global Financial Power 202
Domestic Rebalancing 203
Conclusion 204
Part TV Politics 207
17 Political Conflicts over Reforms 209
Conflicts Within the Chinese Communist Party 209
Reform and the Party s Power 209
Reform and the Personal Finances of Officials 210
Broader Conflicts over Reforms 211
Losers from Reform 211
Winners from Reform 212
Greater Influence of Losers 213
18 Strategies to Overcome Opposition to Reform 21 5
Anticorruption Drive 216
Anticorruption Drive and Financial Reforms 216
Anticorruption Drive and Legitimacy of CCP 216
Effectiveness of Anticorruption Campaign 217
Effect of Reduced Corruption on Economic Growth 218
Centralization of Power 219
Process and Benefits of Centralizing Power 219
Costs of Centralization of Power 220
PartV Risks and Consequences 225
19 Domestic Risks 227
Level and Distribution of Debt 229
xii Contents
Foreign Debt 229
Domestic Debt 232
Quality of Investment 235
Asset-Liability Mismatches 238
Liquidity Risk 239
Currency Risk 240
Corporate Governance and the Regulatory Environment 241
Corporate Governance 241
Regulation 242
CT
Ability of Government to Manage Financial Risk 245
Preventing a Crisis 245
Containing the Effects of a Crisis 247
20 International Consequences of Reform 249
Consequences of Economic Transition 250
International Impact of Financial Crisis 252
Trade Links 252
Financial Ties 253
21 The Future 255
Exaggerated Pessimism 255
Short-Term Risks, Long-Term Benefits 258
Appendix: Financial Decision Making
in the Chinese Government 261
Major Central Government Institutions 261
Chinese Communist Party 261
State Council 262
Central Leading Groups 262
Central Discipline Inspection Committee 263
Ministry of Finance 263
People s Bank of China 264
Financial Regulatory Commissions 264
National Development and Reform Council 265
Index 267
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| id | DE-604.BV043746819 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-08-01T12:20:19Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781137534019 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029158457 |
| oclc_num | 958033999 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-83 DE-1043 DE-Aug4 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-861 DE-523 DE-1049 DE-859 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-29 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS DE-92 DE-824 DE-2070s DE-573 DE-M347 DE-703 DE-739 DE-634 DE-706 |
| owner_facet | DE-83 DE-1043 DE-Aug4 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-861 DE-523 DE-1049 DE-859 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-29 DE-863 DE-BY-FWS DE-862 DE-BY-FWS DE-92 DE-824 DE-2070s DE-573 DE-M347 DE-703 DE-739 DE-634 DE-706 |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (xviii, 270 Seiten) Diagramme |
| psigel | ZDB-2-ECF ZDB-2-ECF_2016 |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateSearch | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Palgrave Macmillan |
| record_format | marc |
| spellingShingle | Armstrong-Taylor, Paul Debt and distortion risks and reforms in the Chinese financial system Finance Finance, Public Investment banking Securities Risk management Capital market Finance--History Risk Management Public Finance Investments and Securities Capital Markets Financial History Finanzwirtschaft |
| title | Debt and distortion risks and reforms in the Chinese financial system |
| title_auth | Debt and distortion risks and reforms in the Chinese financial system |
| title_exact_search | Debt and distortion risks and reforms in the Chinese financial system |
| title_full | Debt and distortion risks and reforms in the Chinese financial system Paul Armstrong-Taylor |
| title_fullStr | Debt and distortion risks and reforms in the Chinese financial system Paul Armstrong-Taylor |
| title_full_unstemmed | Debt and distortion risks and reforms in the Chinese financial system Paul Armstrong-Taylor |
| title_short | Debt and distortion |
| title_sort | debt and distortion risks and reforms in the chinese financial system |
| title_sub | risks and reforms in the Chinese financial system |
| topic | Finance Finance, Public Investment banking Securities Risk management Capital market Finance--History Risk Management Public Finance Investments and Securities Capital Markets Financial History Finanzwirtschaft |
| topic_facet | Finance Finance, Public Investment banking Securities Risk management Capital market Finance--History Risk Management Public Finance Investments and Securities Capital Markets Financial History Finanzwirtschaft |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-53401-9 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029158457&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029158457&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT armstrongtaylorpaul debtanddistortionrisksandreformsinthechinesefinancialsystem |