Verfügbarkeit: Technical analysis

Technical analysis: the complete resource for financial market technicians

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1. Verfasser:	Kirkpatrick, Charles D. II (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Old Tappan, New Jersey Pearson Education Inc. [2016]
Ausgabe:	third edition
Schlagworte:	Technical analysis (Investment analysis) Investment analysis Börsenspekulation Anlagepolitik Markttechnische Analyse Lehrbuch
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis
Beschreibung:	XXVI, 708 Diagramme
ISBN:	9780134137049

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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text	Contents Part I: Introduction 1 Introduction to Technical Analysis......................1 2 The Basic Principle of Technical Analysis— The Trend...............................................7 Chapter Objectives......................................7 How Does the Technical Analyst Make Money?..............8 What Is a Trend?........................................9 How Are Trends Identified?.............................10 Trends Develop from Supply and Demand..................12 What Trends Are There?.................................13 What Other Assumptions Do Technical Analysts Make?.....15 Conclusion.............................................18 Review Questions.......................................18 3 History of Technical Analysis..........................21 Chapter Objectives.....................................21 Early Financial Markets and Exchanges..................21 Modern Technical Analysis..............................24 Current Advances in Technical Analysis.................28 VII VIII Contents 4 The Technical Analysis Controversy..........................33 Chapter Objectives..........................................33 Do Markets Follow a Random Walk?............................35 Fat Tails.......................................... Large Unexpected Drawdowns.............................38 Proportions of Scale...................................40 Can Past Patterns Be Used to Predict the Future?............42 What About Market Efficiency?...............................42 New Information........................................43 Are Investors Rational?................................47 Will Arbitrage Keep Prices in Equilibrium?.............49 Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis...................51 Pragmatic Criticisms of Technical Analysis................ 52 What Is the Empirical Support for Technical Analysis?.......53 Conclusion..................................................54 Review Questions............................................54 Part II: Markets and Market Indicators 5 An Overview of Markets......................................57 Chapter Objectives..........................................57 In What Types of Markets Can Technical Analysis Be Used? ... 58 Types of Contracts..........................................59 Cash Market............................................60 Derivative Markets.....................................62 Swaps and Forwards.....................................67 How Does a Market Work?.....................................68 Who Are the Market Players?.................................71 How Is the Market Measured?.................................71 Price-Weighted Average.................................72 Market Capitalization Weighted Average.................73 Equally Weighted (or Geometric) Average................74 Contents ix Conclusion....................................................75 Review Questions..............................................75 6 Dow Theory.....................................................77 Chapter Objectives............................................77 Dow Theory Theorems...........................................80 The Primary Trend........................................82 The Secondary Trend......................................83 The Minor Trend..........................................83 Concept of Confirmation..................................84 Importance of Volume.....................................86 Criticisms of the Dow Theory..................................87 Conclusion....................................................88 Review Questions..............................................88 7 Sentiment......................................................91 Chapter Objectives............................................91 What Is Sentiment?............................................92 Market Players and Sentiment..................................93 How Does Human Bias Affect Decision Making?...................94 Crowd Behavior and the Concept of Contrary Opinion............98 How Is Sentiment of Uninformed Players Measured?..............99 Sentiment Indicators Based on Options and Volatility....100 Polls...................................................109 Other Measures of Contrary Opinion......................113 Unquantifiable Contrary Indicators......................122 Historical Indicators...................................124 Unusual Indicators......................................125 How Is the Sentiment of Informed Players Measured?...........128 Insiders................................................129 Sentiment in Bonds...........................................135 Treasury Bond Futures Put/Call Ratio....................135 Treasury Bond COT Data..................................136 X Contents Treasury Bond Primary Dealer Positions................. 137 T-Bill Rate Expectations by Money Market Fund Managers.138 Gold Sentiment................................................140 Conclusion....................................................141 Review Questions..............................................141 8 Measuring Market Strength.......................................143 Chapter Objectives............................................143 Market Breadth................................................145 The Breadth Line or Advance-Decline Line................146 Double Negative Divergence..............................148 Traditional Advance-Decline Methods That No Longer Are Profitable.......................................150 Advance-Decline Line to Its 32-Week Simple Moving Average-152 Breadth Differences.....................................152 Breadth Ratios..........................................157 Breadth Thrust..........................................158 Summary of Breadth Indicators...........................159 Up and Down Volume Indicators.................................160 The Arms Index..........................................160 Volume Thrust with Up Volume and Down Volume............162 Ninety Percent Downside Days (NPDD).....................162 10-to-l Up Volume Days and 9-to-l Down Volume Days......163 Net New Highs and Net New Lows................................165 New Highs Versus New Lows...............................166 High Low Logic Index....................................166 Hindenburg Omen........................................... Using Moving Averages.........................................170 Coppock Curve...........................................170 Number of Stocks Above Their 30-Week Moving Average.....171 Very Short-Term Indicators....................................173 Breadth and New Highs to New Lows.......................173 Net Ticks...............................................174 Conclusion....................................................175 Review Questions..............................................176 Contents xi 9 Temporal Patterns and Cycles.....................................177 Chapter Objectives...............................................177 Periods Longer Than Four Years...................................178 Kondratieff Waves, or K-Waves............................. Population Waves...........................................180 17-18-Year Alternating Stock Market Cycles.................182 Decennial Pattern..........................................183 Periods of Four Years or Less....................................185 Four-Year or Presidential Cycle............................185 Election Year Pattern......................................188 Seasonal Patterns..........................................188 January Signals..................................................191 January Barometer..........................................191 January Effect.............................................191 Events...........................................................192 Conclusion.......................................................192 Review Questions.................................................193 10 Flow of Funds....................................................195 Chapter Objectives...............................................195 Funds in the Marketplace.........................................196 Money Market Funds.........................................196 Margin Debt................................................197 Funds Outside the Security Market................................198 Household Financial Assets.................................199 Money Supply (Ml M2).....................................199 Money Velocity.............................................202 Yield Curve................................................203 Bank Liquidity.............................................204 The Cost of Funds and Alternative Investments....................206 Short-Term Interest Rates..................................206 Long-Term Interest Rates (or Inversely, the Bond Market)...207 Corporate Bond and Stock Market Yield Spread...............209 The Misery Indices.........................................210 9 VI XII Contents Fed Policy...................................................211 The Federal Reserve Valuation Model.................212 Federal Funds...........................................213 Free Reserves...........................................214 Three Steps and a Stumble and Two Tumbles and a Jump....215 Conclusion...................................................217 Review Questions........................................... 217 Part III: Trend Analysis 11 History and Construction of Charts...........................219 Chapter Objectives...........................................219 History of Charting..........................................221 What Data Is Needed to Construct a Chart?....................224 What Types of Charts Do Analysts Use?........................227 Line Charts.........................................227 Bar Charts..............................................230 Candlestick Charts......................................232 What Type of Scale Should Be Used?...........................234 Arithmetic Scale__ .....................................234 Semi-Logarithmic Scale..................................234 Point and Figure Charts......................................236 One-Box (Point) Reversal................................237 Box Size................................................239 Multibox Reversal.......................................240 Time....................................................241 Arithmetic Scale........................................241 Logarithmic Scale.......................................242 Cloud Charts (Ichimoku Kinko Hyo)............................242 Other Charting Methods Independent of Time...................244 Kagi Chart..............................................244 Renko Chart.............................................245 Line-Break Chart (2 or 3 Lines).........................245 Contents XIII Conclusion.................................................247 Review Questions...........................................248 12 Trends—The Basics...........................................249 Chapter Objectives.........................................249 Trend—The Key to Profits...................................250 Trend Terminology..........................................251 Basis of Trend Analysis—Dow Theory ........................251 How Does Investor Psychology Impact Trends?................253 How Is the Trend Determined?...............................253 Peaks and Troughs.....................................254 Determining a Trading Range................................255 What Is Support and Resistance?.......................256 Why Do Support and Resistance Occur?..................257 What About Round Numbers?.............................258 How Are Important Reversal Points Determined?.........258 How Do Analysts Use Trading Ranges?...................263 Directional Trends (Up and Down)...........................264 What Is a Directional Trend?..........................265 How Is an Uptrend Spotted?............................265 Channels............................................. 270 Internal Trend Lines..................................272 Other Types of Trend Lines.................................272 Trend Lines on Point and Figure Charts................273 Speed Lines...........................................274 Andrews Pitchfork.....................................275 Gann Fan Lines........................................276 Conclusion.................................................277 Review Questions...........................................278 xiv Contents 13 Breakouts, Stops, and Retracements............................281 Chapter Objectives............................................281 Breakouts.....................................................281 How Is Breakout Confirmed?........................ Can a Breakout Be Anticipated?..........................288 Stops.........................................................289 What Are Entry and Exit Stops?..........................290 Changing Stop Orders....................................290 What Are Protective Stops?..............................291 What Are Trailing Stops?................................292 What Are Time Stops?....................................295 What Are Money Stops?...................................296 How Can Stops Be Used with Breakouts?...................296 Using Stops When Gaps Occur.............................296 Placing Stops for a False (or “Specialist”) Breakout....297 Retracements..................................................298 Pullbacks and Throwbacks................................300 Waiting for Retracement.................................301 Calculating a Risk/Retum Ratio for Breakout Trading.....302 Conclusion....................................................302 Review Questions..............................................302 14 Moving Averages...............................................305 Chapter Objectives............................................305 What Is a Moving Average?.....................................306 How Is a Simple Moving Average Calculated?....................306 Length of Moving Average................................310 Using Multiple Moving Averages..........................310 What Other Types of Moving Averages Are Used?.................312 The Linearly Weighted Moving Average (LWMA).............313 The Exponentially Smoothed Moving Average (EMA).........313 Wilder Method...........................................315 Geometric Moving Average (GMA)..........................316 Triangular Moving Average...............................316 Variable EMAs...............................316 Contents xv Strategies for Using Moving Averages...........................317 Determining Trend........................................317 Determining Support and Resistance.......................317 Determining Price Extremes...............................318 Giving Specific Signals..................................319 What Is Directional Movement?..................................321 Constructing Directional Movement Indicators.............321 Using Directional Movement Indicators....................322 What Are Envelopes, Channels, and Bands? ......................324 Percentage Envelopes.....................................325 Bands................................................... 326 Trading Strategies Using Bands and Envelopes.............328 Channel..................................................329 Conclusion.....................................................330 Review Questions...............................................331 Part IV: Chart Pattern Analysis 15 Bar Chart Patterns.............................................333 Chapter Objectives.............................................333 What Is a Pattern?.............................................334 Common Pattern Characteristics...........................334 Do Patterns Exist?.............................................336 Behavioral Finance and Pattern Recognition...............336 Computers and Pattern Recognition..............................338 Market Structure and Pattern Recognition.......................339 Bar Charts and Patterns........................................340 How Profitable Are Patterns?...................................341 Classic Bar Chart Patterns.....................................342 Double Top and Double Bottom.............................342 Rectangle (Also “Trading Range” or “Box”)................343 Triple Top and Triple Bottom.............................346 Standard Triangles.......................................346 xvi Contents Descending Triangle....................................347 Ascending Triangle.................................... 348 Symmetrical Triangle (Also “Coil” or “Isosceles Triangle”).350 Broadening Patterns....................................352 Diamond Top............................................353 Wedge and Climax.......................................355 Patterns with Rounded Edges—Rounding and Head-and-Shoulders.....................................357 Rounding Top, Rounding Bottom (Also “Saucer, ” “Bowl, or “Cup”).................................................. Head-and-Shoulders.....................................359 Shorter Continuation Trading Patterns—Flags and Pennants (Also “Half-Mast Formation .........................362 Long-Term Bar Chart Patterns with the Best Performance and the Lowest Risk of Failure.........................365 Conclusion...................................................365 Review Questions.............................................366 16 Point and Figure Chart Patterns..............................367 Chapter Objectives...........................................367 What Is Different About a Point and Figure Chart?............368 Time and Volume Omitted................................368 Continuous Price Flow Necessary........................368 “Old” and “New” Methods................................369 History of Point and Figure Charting.........................369 One-Box Reversal Point and Figure Charts.....................371 Consolidation Area on the One-Box Chart (Also “Congestion Area”)..............................................372 Trend Lines in One-Box Charts........................ 372 The Count in a One-Point Chart.........................374 Head-and-Shoulders Pattern.............................375 The Fulcrum............................................376 Action Points..........................................377 Three-Point (or Box) Reversal Point and Figure Charts........377 Trend Lines with Three-Box Charts......................378 The Count Using Three-Box Reversal Charts..............379 Contents xvn The Eight Standard Patterns for Reversal Charts....381 Other Patterns.........................................387 Conclusion...................................................390 Review Questions.............................................391 17 Short-Term Patterns...........................................393 Chapter Objectives...........................................393 Pattern Construction and Determination.......................396 Traditional Short-Term Patterns..............................396 Gaps...................................................397 Spike (or Wide-Range or Large-Range Bar)...............404 Dead Cat Bounce (DCB)..................................405 Island Reversal........................................407 One- and Two-Bar Reversal Patterns.....................407 Other Multiple-Bar Patterns............................415 Volatility Patterns....................................418 Intraday Patterns......................................421 Summary of Short-Term Patterns...............................423 Candlestick Patterns.........................................424 One- and Two-Bar Candlestick Patterns..................425 Multiple-Bar Patterns..................................430 Candlestick Pattern Results............................435 Conclusion...................................................435 Review Questions.............................................436 Part V: Trend Confirmation 18 Confirmation..................................................439 Chapter Objectives...........................................439 Analysis Methods.............................................440 Overbought/Oversold....................................440 Failure Swings.........................................441 Divergences............................................442 Contents •H XVIII Reversals...................................................442 Trend ID....................................................442 Crossovers..................................................443 Classic Patterns............................................443 Volume Confirmation...............................................443 What Is Volume?.............................................444 How Is Volume Portrayed?....................................444 Do Volume Statistics Contain Valuable Information?..........447 How Are Volume Statistics Used?.............................448 Which Indexes and Oscillators Incorporate Volume?...........449 Volume Spikes...............................................458 Examples of Volume Spikes...................................459 Open Interest.....................................................461 What Is Open Interest?......................................461 Open Interest Indicators....................................461 Price Confirmation................................................463 What Is Momentum?...........................................463 How Successful Are Momentum Indicators?.....................464 Specific Indexes and Oscillators............................465 Conclusion........................................................478 Review Questions..................................................479 Part VI: Other Technical Methods and Rules 19 Cycles...............................................................481 Chapter Objectives..............................................481 What Are Cycles?................................................484 Other Aspects of Cycle Analysis...........................487 Translation.....................................................489 How Can Cycles Be Found in Market Data?.........................490 Fourier Analysis (Spectral Analysis)......................490 Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis.........................490 Simpler (and More Practical) Methods......................490 Contents xix Projections....................................................499 Projecting Period........................................ Projecting Amplitude.....................................500 Conclusion.....................................................507 Review Questions...............................................507 20 Elliott, Fibonacci, and Gann...................................509 Chapter Objectives............................................ 509 Elliott Wave Theory (EWT)......................................509 Ralph Nelson Elliott.....................................510 Basic Elliott Wave Theory................................511 Impulse Waves............................................512 Corrective Waves.........................................516 Guidelines and General Characteristics in EWT............519 Projected Targets and Retracements.......................521 Alternatives to EWT......................................522 Using EWT................................................523 The Fibonacci Sequence.........................................525 Fibonacci................................................525 The Fibonacci Sequence...................................526 The Golden Ratio.........................................526 Price and Time Targets...................................527 W.D. Gann.............................................530 Conclusion.....................................................531 Review Questions...............................................531 Part VII: Selection 21 Selection of Markets and Issues: Trading and Investing...........................................533 Chapter Objectives......................................533 Which Issues Should I Select?...........................533 Trading (Swing and Day)............................534 Choosing Between Futures Markets and Stock Markets.535 XX Contents Which Issues Should I Select for Investing?.................537 Top-Down Analysis..........................................538 Secular Emphasis......................................538 Cyclical Emphasis.....................................540 Stock Market Industry Sectors.........................547 Bottom Up—Specific Stock Selection and Relative Strength ... 549 Relative Strength.....................................549 Academic Studies of Relative Strength.................549 Measuring Relative Strength...........................550 Examples of How Selected Professionals Screen for Favorable Stocks......................................553 William O’Neil CAN SLIM Method........................553 James P. O’Shaughnessy Method.........................554 Charles D. Kirkpatrick Method.........................554 Value Line Method.....................................555 Richard D. Wyckojf Method.............................555 Conclusion..................................................557 Review Questions............................................558 Part VIII: System Testing and Management 22 System Design and Testing....................................559 Chapter Objectives..........................................559 Why Are Systems Necessary?..................................560 Discretionary Versus Nondiscretionary Systems.........560 A Complete Trading System...................................562 How Do I Design a System?...................................563 Requirements for Designing a System...................563 Initial Decisions.....................................564 Types of Technical Systems............................565 How Do I Test a System?.....................................568 Clean Data............................................569 Special Data Problems for Futures Systems.............569 Testing Methods and Tools.............................570 Test Parameter Ranges.................................571 Contents xxi Optimization.............................................576 Methods of Optimizing...............................578 Measuring System Results for Robustness.............580 Conclusion...............................................587 Review Questions....................................... 588 23 Money and Portfolio Risk Management......................589 Chapter Objectives.......................................589 Risk and Money Management................................591 Testing Money-Management Strategies......................592 Money-Management Risks...................................593 Concepts............................................593 Reward to Risk......................................595 Normal Risks........................................595 Unusual Risks.......................................602 Money-Management Risk Strategies.........................604 Protective Stop.....................................605 Trailing Stop.......................................606 Other Kinds of Stops................................607 Targets.............................................608 Execution...........................................608 Monitoring Systems and Portfolios........................608 If Everything Goes Wrong.................................609 Conclusion...............................................609 Review Questions.........................................610 Part IX: Appendices A Basic Statistics.............................................611 Appendix Objectives......................................611 Returns..................................................611 Probability and Statistics...............................612 xxii Contents Descriptive Statistics....................................613 Measures of Central Tendency.........................613 Measures of Dispersion...............................615 Relationships Between Variables......................616 Inferential Statistics....................................621 Modern Portfolio Theory...................................625 Performance Measurement...................................631 Advanced Statistical Methods..............................633 Artificial Intelligence...................................634 Review Questions..........................................636 B Types of Orders and Other Trader Terminology...............................................639 An Order Ticket...........................................642 Bibliography..............................................643 Index.....................................................675
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spelling	Kirkpatrick, Charles D. II Verfasser (DE-588)1060768763 aut Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT ; Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT third edition Old Tappan, New Jersey Pearson Education Inc. [2016] © 2016 XXVI, 708 Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Technical analysis (Investment analysis) Investment analysis Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 gnd rswk-swf Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 gnd rswk-swf Markttechnische Analyse (DE-588)4261792-3 gnd rswk-swf 1\p (DE-588)4123623-3 Lehrbuch gnd-content Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 s Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 s Markttechnische Analyse (DE-588)4261792-3 s DE-604 Dahlquist, Julie R. 1962- Sonstige (DE-588)143100637 oth Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029132221&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk
spellingShingle	Kirkpatrick, Charles D. II Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians Technical analysis (Investment analysis) Investment analysis Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 gnd Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 gnd Markttechnische Analyse (DE-588)4261792-3 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4131941-2 (DE-588)4206018-7 (DE-588)4261792-3 (DE-588)4123623-3
title	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians
title_auth	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians
title_exact_search	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians
title_full	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT ; Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT
title_fullStr	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT ; Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT
title_full_unstemmed	Technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, CMT ; Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT
title_short	Technical analysis
title_sort	technical analysis the complete resource for financial market technicians
title_sub	the complete resource for financial market technicians
topic	Technical analysis (Investment analysis) Investment analysis Börsenspekulation (DE-588)4131941-2 gnd Anlagepolitik (DE-588)4206018-7 gnd Markttechnische Analyse (DE-588)4261792-3 gnd
topic_facet	Technical analysis (Investment analysis) Investment analysis Börsenspekulation Anlagepolitik Markttechnische Analyse Lehrbuch
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029132221&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
work_keys_str_mv	AT kirkpatrickcharlesdii technicalanalysisthecompleteresourceforfinancialmarkettechnicians AT dahlquistjulier technicalanalysisthecompleteresourceforfinancialmarkettechnicians

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