Stalking the Black Swan: Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility
Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard¿many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York, NY
Columbia University Press
[2010]
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| Schriftenreihe: | Columbia Business School Publishing
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | FKE01 FLA01 UBG01 FHA01 UPA01 FAW01 FAB01 FCO01 URL des Erstveröffentlichers |
| Zusammenfassung: | Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard¿many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time.Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal¿our computers and our minds¿Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility |
| Beschreibung: | Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher’s Web site, viewed Jan. 06, 2016) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource 79 illus |
| ISBN: | 9780231521673 |
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| author | Posner, Kenneth A. |
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| language | English |
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| spelling | Posner, Kenneth A. Verfasser aut Stalking the Black Swan Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility Kenneth A. Posner New York, NY Columbia University Press [2010] © 2010 1 online resource 79 illus txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Columbia Business School Publishing Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher’s Web site, viewed Jan. 06, 2016) Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard¿many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time.Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal¿our computers and our minds¿Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility Political Economics, other Social Sciences Business cycles Investment analysis Investments Forecasting Recessions http://www.degruyter.com/doi/book/10.7312/posn15048 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Posner, Kenneth A. Stalking the Black Swan Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility Political Economics, other Social Sciences Business cycles Investment analysis Investments Forecasting Recessions |
| title | Stalking the Black Swan Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility |
| title_auth | Stalking the Black Swan Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility |
| title_exact_search | Stalking the Black Swan Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility |
| title_full | Stalking the Black Swan Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility Kenneth A. Posner |
| title_fullStr | Stalking the Black Swan Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility Kenneth A. Posner |
| title_full_unstemmed | Stalking the Black Swan Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility Kenneth A. Posner |
| title_short | Stalking the Black Swan |
| title_sort | stalking the black swan research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility |
| title_sub | Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility |
| topic | Political Economics, other Social Sciences Business cycles Investment analysis Investments Forecasting Recessions |
| topic_facet | Political Economics, other Social Sciences Business cycles Investment analysis Investments Forecasting Recessions |
| url | http://www.degruyter.com/doi/book/10.7312/posn15048 |
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