Expert adjustments of model forecasts: theory, practice and strategies for improvement
To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have ex...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge
Cambridge University Press
2014
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | BSB01 FHN01 UBG01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology |
| Beschreibung: | Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (xvi, 127 pages) |
| ISBN: | 9781139963329 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/CBO9781139963329 |
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| isbn | 9781139963329 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Franses, Philip Hans 1963- Verfasser aut Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement Philip Hans Franses Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2014 1 online resource (xvi, 127 pages) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015) To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Economic forecasting Business forecasting Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd rswk-swf Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 s 1\p DE-604 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-1-107-08159-8 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-1-107-44161-3 https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139963329 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Franses, Philip Hans 1963- Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Economic forecasting Business forecasting Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4132280-0 (DE-588)4071081-6 (DE-588)4047390-9 |
| title | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement |
| title_auth | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement |
| title_exact_search | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement |
| title_full | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement Philip Hans Franses |
| title_fullStr | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement Philip Hans Franses |
| title_full_unstemmed | Expert adjustments of model forecasts theory, practice and strategies for improvement Philip Hans Franses |
| title_short | Expert adjustments of model forecasts |
| title_sort | expert adjustments of model forecasts theory practice and strategies for improvement |
| title_sub | theory, practice and strategies for improvement |
| topic | Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Economic forecasting Business forecasting Ökonometrie (DE-588)4132280-0 gnd Experte (DE-588)4071081-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Ökonometrisches Modell Econometric models Economic forecasting Business forecasting Ökonometrie Experte Prognose |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139963329 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fransesphiliphans expertadjustmentsofmodelforecaststheorypracticeandstrategiesforimprovement |