Trusting Judgements: How to Get the Best out of Experts
Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the...
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| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge
Cambridge University Press
2015
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | BSB01 FHN01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made |
| Beschreibung: | Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 12 Feb 2016) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (214 pages) |
| ISBN: | 9781107112087 9781316282472 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/CBO9781316282472 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| discipline | Politologie |
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| isbn | 9781107112087 9781316282472 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Burgman, Mark A. Verfasser aut Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best out of Experts Mark A. Burgman Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2015 1 online resource (214 pages) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 12 Feb 2016) Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps. There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are made Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 gnd rswk-swf Politikberatung (DE-588)4046515-9 gnd rswk-swf Politischer Berater (DE-588)4252752-1 gnd rswk-swf Politikberatung (DE-588)4046515-9 s Politischer Berater (DE-588)4252752-1 s Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 s 1\p DE-604 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-1-107-11208-7 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-1-107-53102-4 https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316282472 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Burgman, Mark A. Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best out of Experts Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 gnd Politikberatung (DE-588)4046515-9 gnd Politischer Berater (DE-588)4252752-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4046531-7 (DE-588)4046515-9 (DE-588)4252752-1 |
| title | Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best out of Experts |
| title_auth | Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best out of Experts |
| title_exact_search | Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best out of Experts |
| title_full | Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best out of Experts Mark A. Burgman |
| title_fullStr | Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best out of Experts Mark A. Burgman |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trusting Judgements How to Get the Best out of Experts Mark A. Burgman |
| title_short | Trusting Judgements |
| title_sort | trusting judgements how to get the best out of experts |
| title_sub | How to Get the Best out of Experts |
| topic | Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 gnd Politikberatung (DE-588)4046515-9 gnd Politischer Berater (DE-588)4252752-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Politische Entscheidung Politikberatung Politischer Berater |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316282472 |
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