Business forecasting: practical problems and solutions
"A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative...
Gespeichert in:
| Weitere Verfasser: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Hoboken, New Jersey
Wiley
[2015]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Wiley and SAS business series
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Cover image Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | "A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes"... |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | xx, 394 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9781119199885 9781119224563 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804176010825957376 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Foreword xv
Preface xix
Chapter 1 Fundamental Considerations in Business Forecasting 1
1.1 Getting Real about Uncertainty (Paul Goodwin) 3
1.2 What Demand Planners Can Learn from the Stock Market
(Charles K. Re Corr) 9
1.3 Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability (John
Boy lan) 14
1.4 Forecastability: A New Method for Benchmarking and Driving
Improvement (Sean Schubert) 22
1.5 Forecast Errors and Their Avoidability (Steve Morlidge) 36
1.6 The Perils of Benchmarking (Michael Gilliland) 46
1.7 Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of
Forecast Accuracy? (Stephan Kolassa) 48
1.8 Defining Demand for Demand Forecasting (Michael Gilliland) 60
1.9 Using Forecasting to Steer the Business: Six Principles (Steve
Morlidge) 67
1.10 The Beauty of Forecasting (David Orrell) 76
Chapter 2 Methods of Statistical Forecasting 81
2.1 Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster (Chris Chatfield) 82
2.2 New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts (Paul
Goodwin) 92
2.3 How to Forecast Data Containing Outliers (Eric Stellwagen) 95
2.4 Selecting Your Statistical Forecasting Level (Eric Stellwagen) 98
2.5 When Is a Flat-line Forecast Appropriate? (Eric Stellwagen) 102
2.6 Forecasting by Time Compression (Udo Sglavo) 104
2.7 Data Mining for Forecasting: An Introduction (Chip Wells and
Tim Rey) 112
2.8 Process and Methods for Data Mining for Forecasting (Chip Wells
and Tim Rey) 120
2.9 Worst-Case Scenarios in Forecasting: How Bad Can Things Get?
(Roy Batchelor) 126
2.10 Good Patterns, Bad Patterns (Roy Batchelor) 13 5
XI
XII ►CONTENTS
Chapter 3 Forecasting Performance Evaluation and Reporting 143
3.1 Dos and Don ts of Forecast Accuracy Measurement: A Tutorial
(Len Tashman) 144
3.2 How to Track Forecast Accuracy to Guide Forecast Process
Improvement (Jim Hoover) 160
3.3 A Softer Approach to the Measurement of Forecast Accuracy
(John Boylan) 170
3.4 Measuring Forecast Accuracy (Rob Hyndman) 177
3.5 Should We Define Forecast Error ase = JF-Aore = A- F? (Kesten
Green and Len Tashman) 184
3.6 Percentage Error: What Denominator? (Kesten Green and Len
Tashman) 188
3.7 Percentage Errors Can Ruin Your Day (Stephan Kolassa and
Roland Martin) 195
3.8 Another Look at Forecast-Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent
Demand (Rob Hyndman) 204
3.9 Advantages of the MAD/Mean Ratio over the MAPE (Stephan
Kolassa and Wolfgang Schütz) 211
3.10 Use Scaled Errors Instead of Percentage Errors in Forecast
Evaluations (Lauge Valentin) 217
3.11 An Expanded Prediction-Realization Diagram for Assessing
Forecast Errors (Roy Pearson) 228
3.12 Forecast Error Measures: Critical Review and Practical
Recommendations (Andrey Davydenko and Robert Fildes) 238
3.13 Measuring the Quality of Intermittent Demand Forecasts: It s
Worse than We ve Thought! (Steve Morlidge) 250
3.14 Managing Forecasts by Exception (Eric Stellwagen) 259
3.15 Using Process Behavior Charts to Improve Forecasting and
Decision Making (Martin Joseph and Alec Finney) 262
3.16 Can Your Forecast Beat the Naive Forecast? (Shaun Snapp) 276
Chapter 4 Process and Politics of Business Forecasting 281
4.1 FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices (Michael
Gilliland) 282
4.2 Where Should the Forecasting Function Reside? (Larry
Lapide) 288
4.3 Setting Forecasting Performance Objectives (Michael
Gilliland) 294
4.4 Using Relative Error Metrics to Improve Forecast Quality in the
Supply Chain (Steve Morlidge) 297
4.5 Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts? (M. Sinan Gönül, Dilek
Önkal, and Paul Goodwin) 309
CONTENTS 4 Xff
4.6 High on Complexity, Low on Evidence: Are Advanced Forecasting
Methods Always as Good as They Seem? (Paul Goodwin) 315
4.7 Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings?
(J. Scott Armstrong) 319
4.8 The Impact of Sales Forecast Game Playing on Supply Chains
(John Mello) 327
4.9 Role of the Sales Force in Forecasting (Michael Gilliland) 340
4.10 Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four
Companies (Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin) 349
4.11 Worst Practices in New Product Forecasting (Michael
Gilliland) 358
4.12 Sales and Operations Planning in the Retail Industry (Jack
Harwell) 363
4.13 Sales and Operations Planning: Where Is It Going?
(Tom Wallace) 372
About the Editors 381
index 383
|
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| spelling | Business forecasting practical problems and solutions edited by Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, Udo Sglavo Hoboken, New Jersey Wiley [2015] © 2015 xx, 394 Seiten Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Wiley and SAS business series Includes bibliographical references and index "A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes"... Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Zeitreihenanalyse (DE-588)4067486-1 gnd rswk-swf Unternehmensentwicklung (DE-588)4125011-4 gnd rswk-swf Strategische Planung (DE-588)4309237-8 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Unternehmensentwicklung (DE-588)4125011-4 s Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s DE-604 Strategische Planung (DE-588)4309237-8 s Zeitreihenanalyse (DE-588)4067486-1 s Gilliland, Michael (DE-588)141866969 edt Tashman, Len 1942- (DE-588)1120731755 edt Sglavo, Udo 1968- (DE-588)1120731410 edt Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, EPUB 978-1-119-22827-1 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, PDF 978-1-119-22829-5 http://catalogimages.wiley.com/images/db/jimages/9781119224563.jpg Cover image Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028836502&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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| title | Business forecasting practical problems and solutions |
| title_auth | Business forecasting practical problems and solutions |
| title_exact_search | Business forecasting practical problems and solutions |
| title_full | Business forecasting practical problems and solutions edited by Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, Udo Sglavo |
| title_fullStr | Business forecasting practical problems and solutions edited by Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, Udo Sglavo |
| title_full_unstemmed | Business forecasting practical problems and solutions edited by Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, Udo Sglavo |
| title_short | Business forecasting |
| title_sort | business forecasting practical problems and solutions |
| title_sub | practical problems and solutions |
| topic | Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Zeitreihenanalyse (DE-588)4067486-1 gnd Unternehmensentwicklung (DE-588)4125011-4 gnd Strategische Planung (DE-588)4309237-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Prognoseverfahren Zeitreihenanalyse Unternehmensentwicklung Strategische Planung Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | http://catalogimages.wiley.com/images/db/jimages/9781119224563.jpg http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028836502&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gillilandmichael businessforecastingpracticalproblemsandsolutions AT tashmanlen businessforecastingpracticalproblemsandsolutions AT sglavoudo businessforecastingpracticalproblemsandsolutions |