Demystifying climate models: a users guide to Earth system models
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin
Springer Open
[2016]
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Earth systems data and models
Band 2 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | http://www.springer.com/ Inhaltstext Klappentext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XVII, 274 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten |
| ISBN: | 9783662489574 3662489570 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policy makers.
Contents
Part I Basic Principles and the Problem of Climate Forecasts
1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling. 3
1.1 What Is Climate?. 3
1.2 What Is a Model?. 7
1.3 Uncertainty. 10
1.3.1 Model Uncertainty. 10
1.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty. 10
1.3.3 Initial Condition Uncertainty. 11
1.3.4 Total Uncertainty. 11
1.4 Summary. 12
2 Components of the Climate System. 13
2.1 Components of the Earth System . 13
2.1.1 The Atmosphere. 14
2.1.2 The Ocean and Sea Ice. 17
2.1.3 Terrestrial Systems. 18
2.2 Timescales and Interactions. 20
2.3 Summary . . 22
3 Climate Change and Global Warming. 23
3.1 Coupling of the Pieces. 24
3.2 Forcing the Climate System. 26
3.3 Climate History. 29
3.4 Understanding Where the Energy Goes. 30
3.5 Summary. 34
4 Essence of a Climate Model. 37
4.1 Scientific Principles in Climate Models. 38
4.2 Basic Formulation and Constraints. 41
4.2.1 Finite Pieces. 41
4.2.2 Processes. 43
viii Contents
4.2.3 Marching Forward in Time. 49
4.2.4 Examples of Finite Element Models. 50
4.3 Coupled Models. 50
4.4 A Brief History of Climate Models. 52
4.5 Computational Aspects of Climate Modeling. 53
4.5.1 The Computer Program. 53
4.5.2 Running a Model. 56
4.6 Summary. 57
Part II Model Mechanics
5 Simulating the Atmosphere. 61
5.1 Role of the Atmosphere in Climate. 62
5.2 Types of Atmospheric Models . . 66
5.3 General Circulation. 69
5.4 Parts of an Atmosphere Model. 71
5.4.1 Clouds. 74
5.4.2 Radiative Energy. 76
5.4.3 Chemistry. . 76
5.5 Weather Models Versus Climate Models. 78
5.6 Challenges for Atmospheric Models. 79
5.6.1 Uncertain and Unknown Processes. 79
5.6.2 Scales. 80
5.6.3 Feedbacks. 81
5.6.4 Cloud Feedback. 81
5.7 Applications: Impacts of Tropical Cyclones. 83
5.8 Summary. 85
6 Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice. . . 87
6.1 Understanding the Ocean. 88
6.1.1 Structure of the Ocean. 88
6.1.2 Forcing of the Ocean. 89
6.2 “Limited” Ocean Models. 90
6.3 Ocean General Circulation Models. 92
6.3.1 Topography and Grids. 92
6.3.2 Deep Ocean. 93
6.3.3 Eddies in the Ocean. 96
6.3.4 Surface Ocean. 97
6.3.5 Structure of an Ocean Model. 100
6.3.6 Ocean Versus Atmosphere Models. 101
6.4 Sea-Ice Modeling. 101
6.5 The Ocean Carbon Cycle. 104
6.6 Challenges. 104
6.6.1 Challenges in Ocean Modeling. 105
6.6.2 Challenges in Sea Ice Modeling. 105
Contents
ix
6.7 Applications: Sea-Level Rise, Norfolk, Virginia. 106
6.8 Summary. 107
7 Simulating Terrestrial Systems. 109
7.1 Role of the Land Surface in Climate. 109
7.1.1 Precipitation and the Water Cycle. 110
7.1.2 Vegetation. 110
7.1.3 Ice and Snow. Ill
7.1.4 Human Impacts. 112
7.2 Building a Land Surface Simulation. 113
7.2.1 Evolution of a Terrestrial System Model. 113
7.2.2 Biogeophysics: Surface Fluxes and Heat. 115
7.2.3 Biogeophysics: Hydrology. 116
7.2.4 Ecosystem Dynamics (Vegetation
and Land Cover/Use Change). 118
7.2.5 Summary: Structure of a Land Model. 120
7.3 Biogeochemistry: Carbon and Other Nutrient Cycles. 121
7.4 Land-Atmosphere Interactions. 125
7.5 Land Ice. 126
7.6 Humans. 129
7.7 Integrated Assessment Models. 131
7.8 Challenges in Terrestrial System Modeling . 132
7.8.1 Ice Sheet Modeling. 132
7.8.2 Surface Albedo Feedback . 133
7.8.3 Carbon Feedback. 134
7.9 Applications: Wolf and Moose Ecosystem, Isle Royale
National Park. 134
7.10 Summary . 136
8 Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity. 139
8.1 Types of Coupled Models. 139
8.1.1 Regional Models. 140
8.1.2 Statistical Models and Downscaling . . 141
8.1.3 Integrated Assessment Models. 143
8.2 Coupling Models Together: Common Threads. 144
8.3 Key Interactions in Climate Models. 147
8.3.1 Intermixing of the Feedback Loops. . 147
8.3.2 Water Feedbacks. 148
8.3.3 Albedo Feedbacks. 149
8.3.4 Ocean Feedbacks. 150
8.3.5 Sea-Level Change. 150
8.4 Coupled Modes of Climate Variability. 151
8.4.1 Tropical Cyclones . 151
8.4.2 Monsoons. 152
X
Contents
8.4.3 El Nino. 152
8.4.4 Precipitation and the Land Surface. 153
8.4.5 Carbon Cycle and Climate. 153
8.5 Challenges. . 154
8.6 Applications: Integrated Assessment of Water Resources. 155
8.7 Summary. 157
Part III Using Models
9 Model Evaluation. 161
9.1 Evaluation Versus Validation. 161
9.1.1 Evaluation and Missing Information. 162
9.1.2 Observations. 164
9.1.3 Model Improvement. 168
9.2 Climate Model Evaluation. 169
9.2.1 Types of Comparisons. 169
9.2.2 Model Simulations. 170
9.2.3 Using Model Evaluation to Guide Further
Observations. 172
9.3 Predicting the Future: Forecasts Versus Projections. 173
9.3.1 Forecasts. . 173
9.3.2 Projections. 173
9.4 Applications of Climate Model Evaluation:
Ozone Assessment. 174
9.5 Summary. 175
10 Predictability . 177
10.1 Knowledge and Key Uncertainties. 178
10.1.1 Physics of the System. 178
10.1.2 Variability. 180
10.1.3 Sensitivity to Changes. 180
10.2 Types of Uncertainty and Timescales . 181
10.2.1 Predicting the Near Term: Initial Condition
Uncertainty. 182
10.2.2 Predicting the Next 30-50 Years: Scenario
Uncertainty. 183
10.2.3 Predicting the Long Term: Model Uncertainty
Versus Scenario Uncertainty. 189
10.3 Ensembles: Multiple Models and Simulations. 191
10.4 Applications: Developing and Using Scenarios. 195
10.5 Summary. 196
Contents
xi
11 Results of Current Models. 199
11.1 Organization of Climate Model Results. 199
11.2 Prediction and Uncertainty. 200
11.2.1 Goals of Prediction. 201
11.2.2 Uncertainty. 202
11.2.3 Why Models?. 203
11.3 What Is the Confidence in Predictions?. 204
11.3.1 Confident Predictions. 205
11.3.2 Uncertain Predictions: Where to Be Cautious. 210
11.3.3 Bad Predictions. 212
11.3.4 How Do We Predict Extreme Events?. 214
11.4 Climate Impacts and Extremes. 215
11.4.1 Tropical Cyclones. 216
11.4.2 Stream Flow and Extreme Events. 216
11.4.3 Electricity Demand and Extreme Events . 217
11.5 Application: Climate Model Impacts in Colorado. 217
11.6 Summary. 219
12 Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners. 221
12.1 Knowledge Systems . 222
12.2 Interpretation and Translation. 224
12.2.1 Barriers to the Use of Climate Model Projections. 225
12.2.2 Downscaled Datasets. 226
12.2.3 Climate Assessments. 227
12.2.4 Expert Analysis . 228
12.3 Uncertainty. 228
12.3.1 Ensembles. 231
12.3.2 Uncertainty in Assessment Reports. 231
12.4 Framing Uncertainty. 232
12.5 Summary. 235
13 . Summary and Final Thoughts. 237
13.1 What Is Climate? . 237
13.2 Key Features of a Climate Model. 238
13.3 Components of the Climate System. 239
13.3.1 The Atmosphere. 240
13.3.2 The Ocean. 241
13.3.3 Terrestrial Systems. 242
13.3.4 Coupled Components. 243
13.4 Evaluation and Uncertainty. 244
13.4.1 Evaluation. 244
13.4.2 Uncertainty . 245
13.5 What We Know (and Do not Know). 246
Contents
Xll
13.6 The Future of Climate Modeling.248
13.6.1 Increasing Resolution.248
13.6.2 New and Improved Processes.249
13.6.3 Challenges.250
13.7 Final Thoughts.251
Climate Modeling Text Glossary.255
♦
Index
I
271 |
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| series | Earth systems data and models |
| series2 | Earth systems data and models |
| spelling | Gettelman, Andrew Verfasser aut Demystifying climate models a users guide to Earth system models Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood 201603 Berlin Springer Open [2016] XVII, 274 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Earth systems data and models Band 2 Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd rswk-swf Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 gnd rswk-swf Computersimulation (DE-588)4148259-1 gnd rswk-swf Modellierung (DE-588)4170297-9 gnd rswk-swf Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 gnd rswk-swf Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 s Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 s Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 s Modellierung (DE-588)4170297-9 s Computersimulation (DE-588)4148259-1 s b DE-604 Rood, Richard B. Verfasser aut Springer-Verlag GmbH (DE-588)1065168780 pbl Earth systems data and models Band 2 (DE-604)BV042883328 2 http://www.springer.com/ Verlag X:MVB text/html http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=9f835e1847b24114840953956b96e1ed&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm Inhaltstext Digitalisierung UB Augsburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028784344&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext Digitalisierung UB Augsburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028784344&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Gettelman, Andrew Rood, Richard B. Demystifying climate models a users guide to Earth system models Earth systems data and models Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 gnd Computersimulation (DE-588)4148259-1 gnd Modellierung (DE-588)4170297-9 gnd Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4164199-1 (DE-588)4039798-1 (DE-588)4148259-1 (DE-588)4170297-9 (DE-588)4031170-3 |
| title | Demystifying climate models a users guide to Earth system models |
| title_auth | Demystifying climate models a users guide to Earth system models |
| title_exact_search | Demystifying climate models a users guide to Earth system models |
| title_full | Demystifying climate models a users guide to Earth system models Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood |
| title_fullStr | Demystifying climate models a users guide to Earth system models Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demystifying climate models a users guide to Earth system models Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood |
| title_short | Demystifying climate models |
| title_sort | demystifying climate models a users guide to earth system models |
| title_sub | a users guide to Earth system models |
| topic | Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Modell (DE-588)4039798-1 gnd Computersimulation (DE-588)4148259-1 gnd Modellierung (DE-588)4170297-9 gnd Klima (DE-588)4031170-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Klimaänderung Modell Computersimulation Modellierung Klima |
| url | http://www.springer.com/ http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=9f835e1847b24114840953956b96e1ed&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028784344&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028784344&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV042883328 |
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