Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks: The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cham
Springer International Publishing
2015
|
| Edition: | 1st ed. 2015 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | BHS01 BTU01 FFW01 TUM01 UBG01 UBT01 UPA01 Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online Ressource (XXI, 164 p. 21 illus., 9 illus. in color) |
| ISBN: | 9783319194134 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |
Staff View
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nmm a2200000zc 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV043208896 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20151221 | ||
| 007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 151215s2015 |||| o||u| ||||||eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 9783319194134 |c Online |9 978-3-319-19413-4 | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)932035647 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV043208896 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-91 |a DE-1028 |a DE-B768 |a DE-703 |a DE-473 |a DE-634 |a DE-739 | ||
| 082 | 0 | |a 551 |2 23 | |
| 084 | |a UMW 000 |2 stub | ||
| 084 | |a GEO 000 |2 stub | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Taylor, Craig E. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks |b The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management |c by Craig E. Taylor |
| 250 | |a 1st ed. 2015 | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Cham |b Springer International Publishing |c 2015 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online Ressource (XXI, 164 p. 21 illus., 9 illus. in color) | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Earth sciences | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Natural disasters | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Computer simulation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a System theory | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Earth Sciences | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Natural Hazards | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Simulation and Modeling | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Complex Systems | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Geowissenschaften | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Druckausgabe |z 978-3-319-19412-7 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |x Verlag |3 Volltext |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m Springer Fremddatenuebernahme |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028632057&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m Springer Fremddatenuebernahme |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028632057&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Abstract |
| 912 | |a ZDB-2-EES | ||
| 940 | 1 | |q ZDB-2-EES_2015 | |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-028632057 | ||
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |l BHS01 |p ZDB-2-EES |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |l BTU01 |p ZDB-2-EES |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |l FFW01 |p ZDB-2-EES |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |l TUM01 |p ZDB-2-EES |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |l UBG01 |p ZDB-2-EES |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |l UBT01 |p ZDB-2-EES |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |l UPA01 |p ZDB-2-EES |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804175707001061376 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | ROBUST SIMULATION FOR MEGA-RISKS
/ TAYLOR, CRAIG E.
: 2015
TABLE OF CONTENTS / INHALTSVERZEICHNIS
INTRODUCTION: INITIAL QUERIES GOING FORWARD
THE DEDUCTIVIST THEORY OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
THE FREQUENCY THEORY OF PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY AND RANDOMNESS AS BELIEFS: BAYESIAN THEORY
MORE CHALLENGES TO TRADITION: EXTREME VALUE DIAGNOSTICS, POWER LAWS, AND
THE WOBBLE
MATHEMATIZATION OF STATISTICS: FLEXIBILITY AND CONVERGENCE
ROBUST SIMULATION AND NON-LINEAR REASONING: QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE
EXAMPLES
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS: QUALITATIVE CONSIDERATIONS AND QUANTITATIVE
DECISION PROCEDURES
CONCLUSIONS AND QUERIES
DIESES SCHRIFTSTUECK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT.
ROBUST SIMULATION FOR MEGA-RISKS
/ TAYLOR, CRAIG E.
: 2015
ABSTRACT / INHALTSTEXT
THIS BOOK INTRODUCES A NEW WAY OF ANALYZING, MEASURING AND THINKING
ABOUT MEGA-RISKS, A “PARADIGM SHIFT” THAT MOVES FROM
SINGLE-SOLUTIONS TO MULTIPLE COMPETITIVE SOLUTIONS AND STRATEGIES.
“ROBUST SIMULATION” IS A STATISTICAL APPROACH THAT DEMONSTRATES
FUTURE RISK THROUGH SIMULATION OF A SUITE OF POSSIBLE ANSWERS. TO
ARRIVE AT THIS POINT, THE BOOK SYSTEMATICALLY WALKS THROUGH THE
HISTORICAL STATISTICAL METHODS FOR EVALUATING RISKS. THE FIRST CHAPTERS
DEAL WITH THREE THEORIES OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS THAT HAVE BEEN
DOMINANT IN THE 20TH CENTURY, ALONG WITH KEY MATHEMATICAL ISSUES AND
DILEMMAS. THE BOOK THEN INTRODUCES “ROBUST SIMULATION” WHICH
SOLVES THE PROBLEM OF MEASURING THE STABILITY OF SIMULATED LOSSES,
INCORPORATES OUTLIERS, AND SIMULATES FUTURE RISK THROUGH A SUITE OF
POSSIBLE ANSWERS AND STOCHASTIC MODELING OF UNKNOWN VARIABLES. THIS
BOOK DISCUSSES VARIOUS ANALYTICAL METHODS FOR UTILIZING DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS IN MAKING PRAGMATIC FINANCIAL AND RISK-MITIGATION
DECISIONS.THE BOOK EMPHASIZES THE IMPORTANCE OF FLEXIBILITY AND
ATTEMPTS TO DEMONSTRATE THAT ALTERNATIVE CREDIBLE APPROACHES ARE HELPFUL
AND REQUIRED IN UNDERSTANDING A GREAT MANY PHENOMENA.
DIESES SCHRIFTSTUECK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT.
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Taylor, Craig E. |
| author_facet | Taylor, Craig E. |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Taylor, Craig E. |
| author_variant | c e t ce cet |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV043208896 |
| classification_tum | UMW 000 GEO 000 |
| collection | ZDB-2-EES |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)932035647 (DE-599)BVBBV043208896 |
| dewey-full | 551 |
| dewey-hundreds | 500 - Natural sciences and mathematics |
| dewey-ones | 551 - Geology, hydrology, meteorology |
| dewey-raw | 551 |
| dewey-search | 551 |
| dewey-sort | 3551 |
| dewey-tens | 550 - Earth sciences |
| discipline | Geowissenschaften Geologie / Paläontologie Umwelt |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |
| edition | 1st ed. 2015 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02751nmm a2200577zc 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV043208896</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20151221 </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">151215s2015 |||| o||u| ||||||eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9783319194134</subfield><subfield code="c">Online</subfield><subfield code="9">978-3-319-19413-4</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)932035647</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV043208896</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1028</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-B768</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-703</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-634</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">551</subfield><subfield code="2">23</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">UMW 000</subfield><subfield code="2">stub</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">GEO 000</subfield><subfield code="2">stub</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Taylor, Craig E.</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks</subfield><subfield code="b">The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management</subfield><subfield code="c">by Craig E. Taylor</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="250" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1st ed. 2015</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Cham</subfield><subfield code="b">Springer International Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2015</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online Ressource (XXI, 164 p. 21 illus., 9 illus. in color)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Earth sciences</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Natural disasters</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Computer simulation</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">System theory</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Earth Sciences</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Natural Hazards</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Simulation and Modeling</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Complex Systems</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Geowissenschaften</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="776" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Erscheint auch als</subfield><subfield code="n">Druckausgabe</subfield><subfield code="z">978-3-319-19412-7</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">Springer Fremddatenuebernahme</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028632057&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">Springer Fremddatenuebernahme</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028632057&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Abstract</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-2-EES</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="940" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="q">ZDB-2-EES_2015</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-028632057</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4</subfield><subfield code="l">BHS01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-2-EES</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4</subfield><subfield code="l">BTU01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-2-EES</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4</subfield><subfield code="l">FFW01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-2-EES</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4</subfield><subfield code="l">TUM01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-2-EES</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4</subfield><subfield code="l">UBG01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-2-EES</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4</subfield><subfield code="l">UBT01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-2-EES</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4</subfield><subfield code="l">UPA01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-2-EES</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV043208896 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:20:33Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783319194134 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-028632057 |
| oclc_num | 932035647 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-1028 DE-B768 DE-703 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-634 DE-739 |
| owner_facet | DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-1028 DE-B768 DE-703 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-634 DE-739 |
| physical | 1 Online Ressource (XXI, 164 p. 21 illus., 9 illus. in color) |
| psigel | ZDB-2-EES ZDB-2-EES_2015 |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateSearch | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | Springer International Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Taylor, Craig E. Verfasser aut Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management by Craig E. Taylor 1st ed. 2015 Cham Springer International Publishing 2015 1 Online Ressource (XXI, 164 p. 21 illus., 9 illus. in color) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Earth sciences Natural disasters Computer simulation System theory Earth Sciences Natural Hazards Simulation and Modeling Complex Systems Geowissenschaften Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-3-319-19412-7 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 Verlag Volltext Springer Fremddatenuebernahme application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028632057&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Springer Fremddatenuebernahme application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028632057&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Taylor, Craig E. Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management Earth sciences Natural disasters Computer simulation System theory Earth Sciences Natural Hazards Simulation and Modeling Complex Systems Geowissenschaften |
| title | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management |
| title_auth | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management |
| title_exact_search | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management |
| title_full | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management by Craig E. Taylor |
| title_fullStr | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management by Craig E. Taylor |
| title_full_unstemmed | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management by Craig E. Taylor |
| title_short | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks |
| title_sort | robust simulation for mega risks the path from single solution to competitive multi solution methods for mega risk management |
| title_sub | The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management |
| topic | Earth sciences Natural disasters Computer simulation System theory Earth Sciences Natural Hazards Simulation and Modeling Complex Systems Geowissenschaften |
| topic_facet | Earth sciences Natural disasters Computer simulation System theory Earth Sciences Natural Hazards Simulation and Modeling Complex Systems Geowissenschaften |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028632057&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028632057&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT taylorcraige robustsimulationformegarisksthepathfromsinglesolutiontocompetitivemultisolutionmethodsformegariskmanagement |