Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks: The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cham
Springer International Publishing
2015
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| Ausgabe: | 1st ed. 2015 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | BHS01 BTU01 FFW01 TUM01 UBG01 UBT01 UPA01 Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis Abstract |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online Ressource (XXI, 164 p. 21 illus., 9 illus. in color) |
| ISBN: | 9783319194134 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804175707001061376 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | ROBUST SIMULATION FOR MEGA-RISKS
/ TAYLOR, CRAIG E.
: 2015
TABLE OF CONTENTS / INHALTSVERZEICHNIS
INTRODUCTION: INITIAL QUERIES GOING FORWARD
THE DEDUCTIVIST THEORY OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
THE FREQUENCY THEORY OF PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY AND RANDOMNESS AS BELIEFS: BAYESIAN THEORY
MORE CHALLENGES TO TRADITION: EXTREME VALUE DIAGNOSTICS, POWER LAWS, AND
THE WOBBLE
MATHEMATIZATION OF STATISTICS: FLEXIBILITY AND CONVERGENCE
ROBUST SIMULATION AND NON-LINEAR REASONING: QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE
EXAMPLES
MANAGING EXPECTATIONS: QUALITATIVE CONSIDERATIONS AND QUANTITATIVE
DECISION PROCEDURES
CONCLUSIONS AND QUERIES
DIESES SCHRIFTSTUECK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT.
ROBUST SIMULATION FOR MEGA-RISKS
/ TAYLOR, CRAIG E.
: 2015
ABSTRACT / INHALTSTEXT
THIS BOOK INTRODUCES A NEW WAY OF ANALYZING, MEASURING AND THINKING
ABOUT MEGA-RISKS, A “PARADIGM SHIFT” THAT MOVES FROM
SINGLE-SOLUTIONS TO MULTIPLE COMPETITIVE SOLUTIONS AND STRATEGIES.
“ROBUST SIMULATION” IS A STATISTICAL APPROACH THAT DEMONSTRATES
FUTURE RISK THROUGH SIMULATION OF A SUITE OF POSSIBLE ANSWERS. TO
ARRIVE AT THIS POINT, THE BOOK SYSTEMATICALLY WALKS THROUGH THE
HISTORICAL STATISTICAL METHODS FOR EVALUATING RISKS. THE FIRST CHAPTERS
DEAL WITH THREE THEORIES OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS THAT HAVE BEEN
DOMINANT IN THE 20TH CENTURY, ALONG WITH KEY MATHEMATICAL ISSUES AND
DILEMMAS. THE BOOK THEN INTRODUCES “ROBUST SIMULATION” WHICH
SOLVES THE PROBLEM OF MEASURING THE STABILITY OF SIMULATED LOSSES,
INCORPORATES OUTLIERS, AND SIMULATES FUTURE RISK THROUGH A SUITE OF
POSSIBLE ANSWERS AND STOCHASTIC MODELING OF UNKNOWN VARIABLES. THIS
BOOK DISCUSSES VARIOUS ANALYTICAL METHODS FOR UTILIZING DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS IN MAKING PRAGMATIC FINANCIAL AND RISK-MITIGATION
DECISIONS.THE BOOK EMPHASIZES THE IMPORTANCE OF FLEXIBILITY AND
ATTEMPTS TO DEMONSTRATE THAT ALTERNATIVE CREDIBLE APPROACHES ARE HELPFUL
AND REQUIRED IN UNDERSTANDING A GREAT MANY PHENOMENA.
DIESES SCHRIFTSTUECK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT.
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Taylor, Craig E. |
| author_facet | Taylor, Craig E. |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Taylor, Craig E. |
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| dewey-full | 551 |
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| dewey-ones | 551 - Geology, hydrology, meteorology |
| dewey-raw | 551 |
| dewey-search | 551 |
| dewey-sort | 3551 |
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| discipline | Geowissenschaften Geologie / Paläontologie Umwelt |
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| edition | 1st ed. 2015 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| isbn | 9783319194134 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Taylor, Craig E. Verfasser aut Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management by Craig E. Taylor 1st ed. 2015 Cham Springer International Publishing 2015 1 Online Ressource (XXI, 164 p. 21 illus., 9 illus. in color) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Earth sciences Natural disasters Computer simulation System theory Earth Sciences Natural Hazards Simulation and Modeling Complex Systems Geowissenschaften Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-3-319-19412-7 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4 Verlag Volltext Springer Fremddatenuebernahme application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028632057&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Springer Fremddatenuebernahme application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028632057&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Abstract |
| spellingShingle | Taylor, Craig E. Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management Earth sciences Natural disasters Computer simulation System theory Earth Sciences Natural Hazards Simulation and Modeling Complex Systems Geowissenschaften |
| title | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management |
| title_auth | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management |
| title_exact_search | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management |
| title_full | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management by Craig E. Taylor |
| title_fullStr | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management by Craig E. Taylor |
| title_full_unstemmed | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management by Craig E. Taylor |
| title_short | Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks |
| title_sort | robust simulation for mega risks the path from single solution to competitive multi solution methods for mega risk management |
| title_sub | The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management |
| topic | Earth sciences Natural disasters Computer simulation System theory Earth Sciences Natural Hazards Simulation and Modeling Complex Systems Geowissenschaften |
| topic_facet | Earth sciences Natural disasters Computer simulation System theory Earth Sciences Natural Hazards Simulation and Modeling Complex Systems Geowissenschaften |
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