Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems:
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Santa Monica, CA
Rand, Project Air Force
2005
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | FAW01 FAW02 Volltext |
| Beschreibung: | "Prepared for the United States Air Force, approved for Public release; distribution unlimited.". - "MG-360-AF"--Page [4] cover Includes bibliographical references Decision science concerns understanding human decisionmaking and methods and tools to assist it. The first concern includes the distinction between descriptive and prescriptive: how humans actually decide, versus how they should decide. Much of the early literature prescribed rational-analytic methods, such as embodied in systems analysis and policy analysis. The descriptive literature, however, has long noted that humans use heuristics (cognitive shortcuts), which are usually quite valuable, but which sometimes introduce unintended biases. Efforts have been made to improve decision support by "debiasing" the presentation of information. A newer literature on "naturalistic" decisionmaking, however, emphasizes the strengths of intuitive decisionmaking based on heuristics and questions the desirability of debiasing. Our study contrasts the schools of thought and suggests steps toward a synthesis. Ultimately, decision support should appeal to both the rational-analytic and the intuitive capabilities of the decisionmaker, with a balance of "cold" and story-based presentation of analysis and recommendations. The particular balance should depend on characteristics of the decision, the decision environment, and the decisionmaker. Our study also discusses new tools emerging for decision support, which include increasingly realistic models and simulations, such as virtual worlds, and new methods to help in the creative and imaginative aspects of strategic planning. Most important, we note modern methods, such as exploratory analysis, to encourage decisions and strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust so as to deal well with uncertainty |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (xxiv, 156 pages) |
| ISBN: | 0833038087 083304088X 9780833038081 9780833040886 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804175463340310528 |
|---|---|
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Davis, Paul K. |
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| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Davis, Paul K. |
| author_variant | p k d pk pkd |
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| bvnumber | BV043075849 |
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| dewey-full | 358.4/07/0973 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 358 - Air & other specialized forces |
| dewey-raw | 358.4/07/0973 |
| dewey-search | 358.4/07/0973 |
| dewey-sort | 3358.4 17 3973 |
| dewey-tens | 350 - Public administration and military science |
| discipline | Militärwissenschaft Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| id | DE-604.BV043075849 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:16:41Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0833038087 083304088X 9780833038081 9780833040886 |
| language | English |
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| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (xxiv, 156 pages) |
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| spelling | Davis, Paul K. Verfasser aut Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems Paul K. Davis, Jonathan Kulick, Michael Egner Santa Monica, CA Rand, Project Air Force 2005 1 Online-Ressource (xxiv, 156 pages) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier "Prepared for the United States Air Force, approved for Public release; distribution unlimited.". - "MG-360-AF"--Page [4] cover Includes bibliographical references Decision science concerns understanding human decisionmaking and methods and tools to assist it. The first concern includes the distinction between descriptive and prescriptive: how humans actually decide, versus how they should decide. Much of the early literature prescribed rational-analytic methods, such as embodied in systems analysis and policy analysis. The descriptive literature, however, has long noted that humans use heuristics (cognitive shortcuts), which are usually quite valuable, but which sometimes introduce unintended biases. Efforts have been made to improve decision support by "debiasing" the presentation of information. A newer literature on "naturalistic" decisionmaking, however, emphasizes the strengths of intuitive decisionmaking based on heuristics and questions the desirability of debiasing. Our study contrasts the schools of thought and suggests steps toward a synthesis. Ultimately, decision support should appeal to both the rational-analytic and the intuitive capabilities of the decisionmaker, with a balance of "cold" and story-based presentation of analysis and recommendations. The particular balance should depend on characteristics of the decision, the decision environment, and the decisionmaker. Our study also discusses new tools emerging for decision support, which include increasingly realistic models and simulations, such as virtual worlds, and new methods to help in the creative and imaginative aspects of strategic planning. Most important, we note modern methods, such as exploratory analysis, to encourage decisions and strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust so as to deal well with uncertainty Air Force / United States United States / Air Force fast United States Air Force Research TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Military Science bisacsh Decision support systems fast Military planning / Decision making / Data processing fast Armed Forces / Research fast Datenverarbeitung Military planning United States Decision making Data processing Decision support systems Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd rswk-swf Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 gnd rswk-swf USA Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 s Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 s 1\p DE-604 Kulick, Jonathan Sonstige oth Egner, Michael Sonstige oth Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe, Paperback 0-8330-3808-7 http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=197664 Aggregator Volltext 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Davis, Paul K. Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems Air Force / United States United States / Air Force fast United States Air Force Research TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Military Science bisacsh Decision support systems fast Military planning / Decision making / Data processing fast Armed Forces / Research fast Datenverarbeitung Military planning United States Decision making Data processing Decision support systems Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4191815-0 (DE-588)4169951-8 |
| title | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems |
| title_auth | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems |
| title_exact_search | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems |
| title_full | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems Paul K. Davis, Jonathan Kulick, Michael Egner |
| title_fullStr | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems Paul K. Davis, Jonathan Kulick, Michael Egner |
| title_full_unstemmed | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems Paul K. Davis, Jonathan Kulick, Michael Egner |
| title_short | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems |
| title_sort | implications of modern decision science for military decision support systems |
| topic | Air Force / United States United States / Air Force fast United States Air Force Research TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Military Science bisacsh Decision support systems fast Military planning / Decision making / Data processing fast Armed Forces / Research fast Datenverarbeitung Military planning United States Decision making Data processing Decision support systems Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | Air Force / United States United States / Air Force United States Air Force Research TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Military Science Decision support systems Military planning / Decision making / Data processing Armed Forces / Research Datenverarbeitung Military planning United States Decision making Data processing Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem Militärische Planung USA |
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