Abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises
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Format: Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:English
Veröffentlicht: Washington, D.C. National Academy Press 2002
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Online-Zugang:FAW01
FAW02
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Beschreibung:Includes bibliographical references and index
The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic--and often extreme--shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future
Machine generated contents note: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 -- Improve the Fundamental Knowledge Base Related to -- Abrupt Climate Change, 2 -- Improve Modeling Focused on Abrupt Climate Change, 4 -- Improve Paleoclimatic Data Related to Abrupt Climate Change, 5 -- Improve Statistical Approaches, 7 -- Investigate "No-Regrets" Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability, 8 -- 1 INTRODUCTION TO ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE -- EARTH'S CLIMATE 10 -- Definition of Abrupt Climate Change, 14 -- Scientific Evidence, Processes, and Consequences for -- Society and Ecosystems, 15 -- The Charge to the Committee, 17 -- 2 EVIDENCE OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE 19 -- Interpretation of Past Climatic Conditions from Proxy Records, 19 -- The Younger Dryas as an Example of Abrupt Climate Change, 24 -- Abrupt Climate Changes Before the Younger Dryas Event, 36 -- Eemian Rapid Climate Change, 38 -- Holocene Rapid Climate Change, 40 -- Rapid Climate Changes in the Instrumental Period, 45 -- Patterns of Climate Variability, 48 --
- Trends Recor4ed Instrumentally, 56 -- Synopsis of Observations, 69 -- 3 PROCESSES THAT CAUSE ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE 73 -- An Overview of Mechanisms, 74 -- Atmosphere, 80 -- Abrupt Climate Change and Thermohaline Circulation, 89 -- 4 GLOBAL WARMING AS A POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOR 107 -- ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE -- Changes in North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, 108 -- Limited Predictability Close to an Instability, 111 -- Changes in Natural Modes of the Atmosphere-Ocean System, 112 -- Possible Future Abrupt Changes in the Hydrological Cycle, 113 -- Ice Sheet Changes, 114 -- Outlook, 115 -- 5 ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF ABRUPT 118 -- CLIMATE CHANGE -- Recent Scientific Studies in the Ecological and Social Sciences, 120 -- Sectoral Approaches, 141 -- Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change, 149 -- 6 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 153 -- Improve the Fundamental Knowledge Base Related to -- Abrupt Climate Change, 154 -- Improve Modeling Focused on Abrupt Climate Change, 159 --
- Improve Paleoclimatic Data Related to Abrupt Climate Change, 161 -- Improve Statistical Approaches, 163 -- Investigate "No-Regrets" Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability, 164 -- Final Thoughts, 167 -- REFERENCES 168 -- APPENDIXES 203 -- A Committee and Staff Biographies, 203 -- B Board Rosters, 208 -- C Workshop Agenda, 212 -- D Workshop Participants, 214 -- E Impacts Workshop Program, 216 -- F Impacts Workshop Participants, 218 -- G Acronym List, 220 -- INDEX 223
Beschreibung:1 Online-Ressource (xii, 230 pages)
ISBN:0309074347
0309512840
9780309074346
9780309512848

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