The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction: a method for predictive intelligence analysis
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York
Bloomsbury Academic
2013
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | FAW01 FAW02 Volltext |
| Beschreibung: | Description based on print version record |
| Beschreibung: | 1 online resource (pages cm.) |
| ISBN: | 1623562406 1623567823 9781623562403 9781623567828 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction |b a method for predictive intelligence analysis |c Jonathan S. Lockwood |
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| 505 | 8 | |a "The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) is a systematic technique for predicting short-term, unique behaviors. Using primarily qualitative empirical data, LAMP allows the analyst to predict the most likely outcomes for specific research questions across a wide range of intelligence problems, such as cyber threats in the U.S., the possibility of an Al Qaeda attack, the likelihood of Iran providing nuclear capability to terrorist groups, or the future actions of the Mexican drug cartel. LAMP offers an innovative and powerful method for organizing all available information based on the perceptions of the national actors, using it to make relevant predictions as to which alternate future is most likely to occur at a given moment in time. Its transparent structure enables anyone to see how an analyst gets from point A to point B to produce an intelligence estimate. LAMP differs from other analytical techniques in that it is based on determining the relative probability of a range of alternate futures, rather than attempting to determine the quantitative probability of their occurrence. After explaining its theoretical framework, the text leads the reader through the process of predictive analysis before providing practical case studies showing how LAMP is applied against real world problems, such as the possible responses of Israel, the U.S., and Lebanon to the behavior of Hezbollah or the competing visions of the future of Afghanistan. Evaluation of the method is provided with the case studies to show the effectiveness of the LAMP predictions over time. The book is complemented by a website with downloadable software for use by students of intelligence in conducting their own predictive analysis. It will be an essential tool for the analyst and the student, not only for national security issues but also for competitive intelligence"-- | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Machine generated contents note: -- Introduction : The Development of the LAMP : Foreword by Dr. Mark M. Lowenthal -- Chapter One : The Philosophy and Steps of the LAMP -- Chapter Two: A Comparison of the LAMP with Other Techniques -- Chapter Three: The Initial Use of the LAMP : Case Study of the Former Soviet Nuclear Republics and Nuclear Weapons -- Chapter Four: Limitations and Potential Applications of the LAMP -- Chapter Five: The Future of Afghanistan: Democracy, Islamic Caliphate or Warlord Principalities?: A Predictive Study on Possible Afghanistan, United States and Taliban Responses -- Chapter Six: Candidate Moves in the Levant: An Analysis of the Region's Geostrategic Future Using the LAMP Method -- Chapter Seven: The Adaptability of the FARC and ELN and the Prediction of their Future Actions -- Bibliography -- Index | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804175388807528448 |
|---|---|
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Lockwood, Jonathan Samuel 1955- |
| author_facet | Lockwood, Jonathan Samuel 1955- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Lockwood, Jonathan Samuel 1955- |
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| contents | "The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) is a systematic technique for predicting short-term, unique behaviors. Using primarily qualitative empirical data, LAMP allows the analyst to predict the most likely outcomes for specific research questions across a wide range of intelligence problems, such as cyber threats in the U.S., the possibility of an Al Qaeda attack, the likelihood of Iran providing nuclear capability to terrorist groups, or the future actions of the Mexican drug cartel. LAMP offers an innovative and powerful method for organizing all available information based on the perceptions of the national actors, using it to make relevant predictions as to which alternate future is most likely to occur at a given moment in time. Its transparent structure enables anyone to see how an analyst gets from point A to point B to produce an intelligence estimate. LAMP differs from other analytical techniques in that it is based on determining the relative probability of a range of alternate futures, rather than attempting to determine the quantitative probability of their occurrence. After explaining its theoretical framework, the text leads the reader through the process of predictive analysis before providing practical case studies showing how LAMP is applied against real world problems, such as the possible responses of Israel, the U.S., and Lebanon to the behavior of Hezbollah or the competing visions of the future of Afghanistan. Evaluation of the method is provided with the case studies to show the effectiveness of the LAMP predictions over time. The book is complemented by a website with downloadable software for use by students of intelligence in conducting their own predictive analysis. It will be an essential tool for the analyst and the student, not only for national security issues but also for competitive intelligence"-- Machine generated contents note: -- Introduction : The Development of the LAMP : Foreword by Dr. Mark M. Lowenthal -- Chapter One : The Philosophy and Steps of the LAMP -- Chapter Two: A Comparison of the LAMP with Other Techniques -- Chapter Three: The Initial Use of the LAMP : Case Study of the Former Soviet Nuclear Republics and Nuclear Weapons -- Chapter Four: Limitations and Potential Applications of the LAMP -- Chapter Five: The Future of Afghanistan: Democracy, Islamic Caliphate or Warlord Principalities?: A Predictive Study on Possible Afghanistan, United States and Taliban Responses -- Chapter Six: Candidate Moves in the Levant: An Analysis of the Region's Geostrategic Future Using the LAMP Method -- Chapter Seven: The Adaptability of the FARC and ELN and the Prediction of their Future Actions -- Bibliography -- Index |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)857846908 (DE-599)BVBBV043031906 |
| dewey-full | 327.12 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 327 - International relations |
| dewey-raw | 327.12 |
| dewey-search | 327.12 |
| dewey-sort | 3327.12 |
| dewey-tens | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
| discipline | Politologie |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| id | DE-604.BV043031906 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:15:30Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1623562406 1623567823 9781623562403 9781623567828 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-028456557 |
| oclc_num | 857846908 |
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| physical | 1 online resource (pages cm.) |
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| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateSearch | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | Bloomsbury Academic |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Lockwood, Jonathan Samuel 1955- Verfasser aut The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction a method for predictive intelligence analysis Jonathan S. Lockwood New York Bloomsbury Academic 2013 1 online resource (pages cm.) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Description based on print version record "The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) is a systematic technique for predicting short-term, unique behaviors. Using primarily qualitative empirical data, LAMP allows the analyst to predict the most likely outcomes for specific research questions across a wide range of intelligence problems, such as cyber threats in the U.S., the possibility of an Al Qaeda attack, the likelihood of Iran providing nuclear capability to terrorist groups, or the future actions of the Mexican drug cartel. LAMP offers an innovative and powerful method for organizing all available information based on the perceptions of the national actors, using it to make relevant predictions as to which alternate future is most likely to occur at a given moment in time. Its transparent structure enables anyone to see how an analyst gets from point A to point B to produce an intelligence estimate. LAMP differs from other analytical techniques in that it is based on determining the relative probability of a range of alternate futures, rather than attempting to determine the quantitative probability of their occurrence. After explaining its theoretical framework, the text leads the reader through the process of predictive analysis before providing practical case studies showing how LAMP is applied against real world problems, such as the possible responses of Israel, the U.S., and Lebanon to the behavior of Hezbollah or the competing visions of the future of Afghanistan. Evaluation of the method is provided with the case studies to show the effectiveness of the LAMP predictions over time. The book is complemented by a website with downloadable software for use by students of intelligence in conducting their own predictive analysis. It will be an essential tool for the analyst and the student, not only for national security issues but also for competitive intelligence"-- Machine generated contents note: -- Introduction : The Development of the LAMP : Foreword by Dr. Mark M. Lowenthal -- Chapter One : The Philosophy and Steps of the LAMP -- Chapter Two: A Comparison of the LAMP with Other Techniques -- Chapter Three: The Initial Use of the LAMP : Case Study of the Former Soviet Nuclear Republics and Nuclear Weapons -- Chapter Four: Limitations and Potential Applications of the LAMP -- Chapter Five: The Future of Afghanistan: Democracy, Islamic Caliphate or Warlord Principalities?: A Predictive Study on Possible Afghanistan, United States and Taliban Responses -- Chapter Six: Candidate Moves in the Levant: An Analysis of the Region's Geostrategic Future Using the LAMP Method -- Chapter Seven: The Adaptability of the FARC and ELN and the Prediction of their Future Actions -- Bibliography -- Index POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / Intelligence bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / Government / International bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General bisacsh Internationale Politik Terrorismus Intelligence service Methodology International relations Forecasting Terrorism Forecasting World politics Forecasting Terrorismus (DE-588)4059534-1 gnd rswk-swf Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 gnd rswk-swf Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd rswk-swf Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 s Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s Terrorismus (DE-588)4059534-1 s Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 s DE-604 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 1-62356-233-3 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-1-62356-233-5 http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=634943 Aggregator Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Lockwood, Jonathan Samuel 1955- The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction a method for predictive intelligence analysis "The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) is a systematic technique for predicting short-term, unique behaviors. Using primarily qualitative empirical data, LAMP allows the analyst to predict the most likely outcomes for specific research questions across a wide range of intelligence problems, such as cyber threats in the U.S., the possibility of an Al Qaeda attack, the likelihood of Iran providing nuclear capability to terrorist groups, or the future actions of the Mexican drug cartel. LAMP offers an innovative and powerful method for organizing all available information based on the perceptions of the national actors, using it to make relevant predictions as to which alternate future is most likely to occur at a given moment in time. Its transparent structure enables anyone to see how an analyst gets from point A to point B to produce an intelligence estimate. LAMP differs from other analytical techniques in that it is based on determining the relative probability of a range of alternate futures, rather than attempting to determine the quantitative probability of their occurrence. After explaining its theoretical framework, the text leads the reader through the process of predictive analysis before providing practical case studies showing how LAMP is applied against real world problems, such as the possible responses of Israel, the U.S., and Lebanon to the behavior of Hezbollah or the competing visions of the future of Afghanistan. Evaluation of the method is provided with the case studies to show the effectiveness of the LAMP predictions over time. The book is complemented by a website with downloadable software for use by students of intelligence in conducting their own predictive analysis. It will be an essential tool for the analyst and the student, not only for national security issues but also for competitive intelligence"-- Machine generated contents note: -- Introduction : The Development of the LAMP : Foreword by Dr. Mark M. Lowenthal -- Chapter One : The Philosophy and Steps of the LAMP -- Chapter Two: A Comparison of the LAMP with Other Techniques -- Chapter Three: The Initial Use of the LAMP : Case Study of the Former Soviet Nuclear Republics and Nuclear Weapons -- Chapter Four: Limitations and Potential Applications of the LAMP -- Chapter Five: The Future of Afghanistan: Democracy, Islamic Caliphate or Warlord Principalities?: A Predictive Study on Possible Afghanistan, United States and Taliban Responses -- Chapter Six: Candidate Moves in the Levant: An Analysis of the Region's Geostrategic Future Using the LAMP Method -- Chapter Seven: The Adaptability of the FARC and ELN and the Prediction of their Future Actions -- Bibliography -- Index POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / Intelligence bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / Government / International bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General bisacsh Internationale Politik Terrorismus Intelligence service Methodology International relations Forecasting Terrorism Forecasting World politics Forecasting Terrorismus (DE-588)4059534-1 gnd Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4059534-1 (DE-588)4019737-2 (DE-588)4072885-7 (DE-588)4358095-6 |
| title | The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction a method for predictive intelligence analysis |
| title_auth | The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction a method for predictive intelligence analysis |
| title_exact_search | The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction a method for predictive intelligence analysis |
| title_full | The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction a method for predictive intelligence analysis Jonathan S. Lockwood |
| title_fullStr | The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction a method for predictive intelligence analysis Jonathan S. Lockwood |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction a method for predictive intelligence analysis Jonathan S. Lockwood |
| title_short | The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction |
| title_sort | the lockwood analytical method for prediction a method for predictive intelligence analysis |
| title_sub | a method for predictive intelligence analysis |
| topic | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / Intelligence bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / Government / International bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General bisacsh Internationale Politik Terrorismus Intelligence service Methodology International relations Forecasting Terrorism Forecasting World politics Forecasting Terrorismus (DE-588)4059534-1 gnd Geheimdienst (DE-588)4019737-2 gnd Internationale Politik (DE-588)4072885-7 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / Intelligence POLITICAL SCIENCE / Government / International POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General Internationale Politik Terrorismus Intelligence service Methodology International relations Forecasting Terrorism Forecasting World politics Forecasting Geheimdienst Prognoseverfahren |
| url | http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=634943 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lockwoodjonathansamuel thelockwoodanalyticalmethodforpredictionamethodforpredictiveintelligenceanalysis |