Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts: evidence from a large international panel
Gespeichert in:
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
|---|---|
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Washington, D.C.]
International Monetary Fund
c2013
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper
WP/13/56 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Beschreibung: | Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Mar. 13, 2013). - "Research Department"--p. 2 of pdf. - "February 2013"--p. 2 of pdf "We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution"--Abstract Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-23) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) |
| ISBN: | 9781475585667 1475585667 1475587619 9781475587616 |
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| 500 | |a "We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution"--Abstract | ||
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| id | DE-604.BV042968756 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:14:03Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781475585667 1475585667 1475587619 9781475587616 |
| language | English |
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| publishDate | 2013 |
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| publisher | International Monetary Fund |
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| spelling | Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts evidence from a large international panel Jonas Dovern ... [et al.] [Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund c2013 1 Online-Ressource (24 p.) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF working paper WP/13/56 Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Mar. 13, 2013). - "Research Department"--p. 2 of pdf. - "February 2013"--p. 2 of pdf "We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution"--Abstract Includes bibliographical references (p. 21-23) BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / Business Development bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / Economic Development bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / General bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Government & Business bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Structural Adjustment bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Policy / Economic Policy bisacsh Economic development / Forecasting fast Information theory in economics fast Wirtschaft Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Economic development Forecasting Information theory in economics Dovern, Jonas Sonstige oth International Monetary Fund Research Department Sonstige oth http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=561209 Aggregator Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts evidence from a large international panel BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / Business Development bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / Economic Development bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / General bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Government & Business bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Structural Adjustment bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Policy / Economic Policy bisacsh Economic development / Forecasting fast Information theory in economics fast Wirtschaft Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Economic development Forecasting Information theory in economics |
| title | Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts evidence from a large international panel |
| title_auth | Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts evidence from a large international panel |
| title_exact_search | Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts evidence from a large international panel |
| title_full | Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts evidence from a large international panel Jonas Dovern ... [et al.] |
| title_fullStr | Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts evidence from a large international panel Jonas Dovern ... [et al.] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts evidence from a large international panel Jonas Dovern ... [et al.] |
| title_short | Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts |
| title_sort | information rigidities in economic growth forecasts evidence from a large international panel |
| title_sub | evidence from a large international panel |
| topic | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / Business Development bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / Economic Development bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / General bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Government & Business bisacsh BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Structural Adjustment bisacsh POLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Policy / Economic Policy bisacsh Economic development / Forecasting fast Information theory in economics fast Wirtschaft Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Economic development Forecasting Information theory in economics |
| topic_facet | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / Business Development BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / Economic Development BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Development / General BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Government & Business BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Structural Adjustment POLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Policy / Economic Policy Economic development / Forecasting Information theory in economics Wirtschaft Wirtschaftsentwicklung Wirtschaftspolitik Economic development Forecasting |
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