Chronicle of a decline foretold: has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
[Washington, D.C.]
International Monetary Fund
c2013
|
| Schriftenreihe: | IMF working paper
WP/13/26 |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
| Beschreibung: | Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Feb. 4, 2013). - "Research Department and Asia and Pacific Department.". - "January 2013." "China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios - with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity - may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor"--Abstract Includes bibliographical references (p. 19-20) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (1 online resource (21 p.) |
| ISBN: | 9781475594058 1475594054 1475525192 9781475525199 |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nmm a2200000zcb4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV042962044 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 00000000000000.0 | ||
| 007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 151030s2013 |||| o||u| ||||||eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 9781475594058 |c electronic bk. |9 978-1-4755-9405-8 | ||
| 020 | |a 1475594054 |c electronic bk. |9 1-4755-9405-4 | ||
| 020 | |a 1475525192 |c electronic bk. |9 1-4755-2519-2 | ||
| 020 | |a 9781475525199 |c electronic bk. |9 978-1-4755-2519-9 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)826652844 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV042962044 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 082 | 0 | |a 331.120951 |2 23 | |
| 100 | 1 | |a Das, Mitali |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Chronicle of a decline foretold |b has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye |
| 264 | 1 | |a [Washington, D.C.] |b International Monetary Fund |c c2013 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (1 online resource (21 p.) | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a IMF working paper |v WP/13/26 | |
| 500 | |a Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Feb. 4, 2013). - "Research Department and Asia and Pacific Department.". - "January 2013." | ||
| 500 | |a "China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios - with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity - may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor"--Abstract | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references (p. 19-20) | ||
| 650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Labor |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Labor supply |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Population |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Population aging |2 fast | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaft | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Labor supply |z China | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population aging |z China | |
| 700 | 1 | |a N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P. |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund |b Research Department |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund |b Asia and Pacific Department |e Sonstige |4 oth | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=548042 |x Aggregator |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-4-EBU | ||
| 940 | 1 | |q FLA_PDA_EBU | |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-028387911 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804175284313784320 |
|---|---|
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Das, Mitali |
| author_facet | Das, Mitali |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Das, Mitali |
| author_variant | m d md |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV042962044 |
| collection | ZDB-4-EBU |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)826652844 (DE-599)BVBBV042962044 |
| dewey-full | 331.120951 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 331 - Labor economics |
| dewey-raw | 331.120951 |
| dewey-search | 331.120951 |
| dewey-sort | 3331.120951 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>03074nmm a2200493zcb4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV042962044</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">00000000000000.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">151030s2013 |||| o||u| ||||||eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9781475594058</subfield><subfield code="c">electronic bk.</subfield><subfield code="9">978-1-4755-9405-8</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1475594054</subfield><subfield code="c">electronic bk.</subfield><subfield code="9">1-4755-9405-4</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1475525192</subfield><subfield code="c">electronic bk.</subfield><subfield code="9">1-4755-2519-2</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9781475525199</subfield><subfield code="c">electronic bk.</subfield><subfield code="9">978-1-4755-2519-9</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)826652844</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV042962044</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="082" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">331.120951</subfield><subfield code="2">23</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Das, Mitali</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Chronicle of a decline foretold</subfield><subfield code="b">has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">[Washington, D.C.]</subfield><subfield code="b">International Monetary Fund</subfield><subfield code="c">c2013</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (1 online resource (21 p.)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">IMF working paper</subfield><subfield code="v">WP/13/26</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Feb. 4, 2013). - "Research Department and Asia and Pacific Department.". - "January 2013."</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">"China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios - with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity - may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor"--Abstract</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Includes bibliographical references (p. 19-20)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Labor</subfield><subfield code="2">bisacsh</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Labor supply</subfield><subfield code="2">fast</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Population</subfield><subfield code="2">fast</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Population aging</subfield><subfield code="2">fast</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Wirtschaft</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Labor supply</subfield><subfield code="z">China</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Population aging</subfield><subfield code="z">China</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P.</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="710" ind1="2" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">International Monetary Fund</subfield><subfield code="b">Research Department</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="710" ind1="2" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">International Monetary Fund</subfield><subfield code="b">Asia and Pacific Department</subfield><subfield code="e">Sonstige</subfield><subfield code="4">oth</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=548042</subfield><subfield code="x">Aggregator</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-4-EBU</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="940" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="q">FLA_PDA_EBU</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-028387911</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV042962044 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:13:50Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781475594058 1475594054 1475525192 9781475525199 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-028387911 |
| oclc_num | 826652844 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (1 online resource (21 p.) |
| psigel | ZDB-4-EBU FLA_PDA_EBU |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publishDateSearch | 2013 |
| publishDateSort | 2013 |
| publisher | International Monetary Fund |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | IMF working paper |
| spelling | Das, Mitali Verfasser aut Chronicle of a decline foretold has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye [Washington, D.C.] International Monetary Fund c2013 1 Online-Ressource (1 online resource (21 p.) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF working paper WP/13/26 Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Feb. 4, 2013). - "Research Department and Asia and Pacific Department.". - "January 2013." "China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios - with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity - may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor"--Abstract Includes bibliographical references (p. 19-20) BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Labor bisacsh Labor supply fast Population fast Population aging fast Wirtschaft Labor supply China Population aging China N'Diaye, Papa M'B. P. Sonstige oth International Monetary Fund Research Department Sonstige oth International Monetary Fund Asia and Pacific Department Sonstige oth http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=548042 Aggregator Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Das, Mitali Chronicle of a decline foretold has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Labor bisacsh Labor supply fast Population fast Population aging fast Wirtschaft Labor supply China Population aging China |
| title | Chronicle of a decline foretold has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye |
| title_auth | Chronicle of a decline foretold has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye |
| title_exact_search | Chronicle of a decline foretold has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye |
| title_full | Chronicle of a decline foretold has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye |
| title_fullStr | Chronicle of a decline foretold has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye |
| title_full_unstemmed | Chronicle of a decline foretold has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye |
| title_short | Chronicle of a decline foretold |
| title_sort | chronicle of a decline foretold has china reached the lewis turning point mitali das and papa n diaye |
| title_sub | has China reached the Lewis Turning Point? / Mitali Das and Papa N'Diaye |
| topic | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Labor bisacsh Labor supply fast Population fast Population aging fast Wirtschaft Labor supply China Population aging China |
| topic_facet | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Labor Labor supply Population Population aging Wirtschaft Labor supply China Population aging China |
| url | http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=548042 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dasmitali chronicleofadeclineforetoldhaschinareachedthelewisturningpointmitalidasandpapandiaye AT ndiayepapambp chronicleofadeclineforetoldhaschinareachedthelewisturningpointmitalidasandpapandiaye AT internationalmonetaryfundresearchdepartment chronicleofadeclineforetoldhaschinareachedthelewisturningpointmitalidasandpapandiaye AT internationalmonetaryfundasiaandpacificdepartment chronicleofadeclineforetoldhaschinareachedthelewisturningpointmitalidasandpapandiaye |